Can we observe collective neuronal activity from macroscopic aggregate signals?

The fundamental problem faced by noninvasive neuroimaging techniques such as EEG/MEG1 is to elucidate functionally important aspects of the microscopic neuronal network dynamics from macroscopic aggregate measurements. Due to the mixing of the activities of large neuronal populations in the observed macroscopic aggregate, recovering the underlying network that generates the signal in the absence of any additional information represents a considerable challenge. Recent MEG studies have shown that macroscopic measurements contain sufficient information to allow the differentiation between patterns of activity, which are likely to represent different stimulus-specific collective modes in the underlying network (Hadjipapas, A., Adjamian, P., Swettenham, J.B., Holliday, I.E., Barnes, G.R., 2007. Stimuli of varying spatial scale induce gamma activity with distinct temporal characteristics in human visual cortex. NeuroImage 35, 518–530). The next question arising in this context is whether aspects of collective network activity can be recovered from a macroscopic aggregate signal. We propose that this issue is most appropriately addressed if MEG/EEG signals are to be viewed as macroscopic aggregates arising from networks of coupled systems as opposed to aggregates across a mass of largely independent neural systems. We show that collective modes arising in a network of simulated coupled systems can be indeed recovered from the macroscopic aggregate. Moreover, we show that nonlinear state space methods yield a good approximation of the number of effective degrees of freedom in the network. Importantly, information about hidden variables, which do not directly contribute to the aggregate signal, can also be recovered. Finally, this theoretical framework can be applied to experimental MEG/EEG data in the future, enabling the inference of state dependent changes in the degree of local synchrony in the underlying network.

Disruption prediction at JET [Joint European Torus]

The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus), Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. Ollrien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as ?i and q? with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of assigning a disruption probability to every plasma input pattern. The second method determines the novelty of an input pattern by calculating the probability density distribution of successful plasma patterns that have been run at JET. The density distribution is represented as a mixture distribution, and its parameters arc determined using the Expectation-Maximisation method. If the dataset, used to determine the distribution parameters, covers sufficiently well the machine operational space. Then, the patterns flagged as novel can be regarded as patterns belonging to a disrupting plasma. Together with these methods, a network has been designed to predict the vertical forces, that a disruption can cause, in order to avoid that too dangerous plasma configurations are run. This network can be run before the pulse using the pre-programmed plasma configuration or on line becoming a tool that allows to stop dangerous plasma configuration. All these methods have been implemented in real time on a dual Pentium Pro based machine. The Disruption Prediction and Prevention System has shown that internal plasma parameters can be determined on-line with a good accuracy. Also the disruption detection algorithms showed promising results considering the fact that JET is an experimental machine where always new plasma configurations are tested trying to improve its performances.

The performance of stabilized and unstabilized minestone in an aqueous environment with emphasis on its erosion resistance

Britain's sea and flood defences are becoming increasingly aged and as a consequence, more fragile and vulnerable. As the government's philosophy on resources shifts against the use of prime quarried and dredged geo-materials, the need to find alternative bulk materials to bolster Britain's prone defences becomes more pressing. One conceivable source for such a material is colliery waste or minestone. Although a plethora of erosion-abrasion studies have been carried out on soils and soil-cements, very little research has been undertaken to determine the resistance of minestone and its cement stabilized form to the effects of water erosion. The thesis reviews the current extent to which soil-cements, minestone and cement stabilized minestone (CSM) have been employed for hydraulic construction projects. A synopsis is also given on the effects of immersion on shales, mudstones and minestone, especially with regard to the phenomena of slaking. A laboratory study was undertaken featuring a selection of minestones from several British coalfields. The stability of minestone and CSM in sea water and distilled water was assessed using slaking tests and immersion monitoring and the bearing on the use of these materials for hydraulic construction is discussed. Following a review of current erosion apparatus, the erosion/abrasion test and rotating cylinder device were chosen and employed to assess the erosion resistance of minestone and CSM. Comparison was made with a sand mix designed to represent a dredged sand, the more traditional, bulk hydraulic construction material. The results of the erosion study suggest that both minestone and CSM were more resistant to erosion and abrasion than equivalently treated sand mixes. The greater resistance of minestone to the agents of erosion and abrasion is attributed to several factors including the size of the particles, a greater degree of cement bonding and the ability of the minestone aggregate to absorb, rather than transmit shock waves produced by impacting abrasive particles. Although minestone is shown to be highly unstable when subjected to cyclic changes in its moisture content, the study suggests that even in an intertidal regime where cyclic immersion does takes place, minestone will retain sufficient moisture within its fabric to prevent slaking from taking place. The slaking study reveals a close relationship between slaking susceptibility and total pore surface area as revealed by porosimetry. The immersion study shows that although the fabric of CSM is rapidly attacked in sea water, a high degree of the disruption is associated with the edges and corners of samples (ie. free surface) while the integrity of the internal fabric remains relatively intact. CSM samples were shown to be resilient when subjected to immersion in distilled water. An overall assessment of minestone and CSM would suggest that with the implementation of judicious selection and appropriate quality control they could be used as alternative materials for flood and sea defences. It is believed, that even in the harsh regime of a marine environment, CSM could be employed for temporary and sacrificial schemes.

Disruption of the interaction between PMCA2 and calcineurin triggers apoptosis and enhances paclitaxel-induced cytotoxicity in breast cancer cells

Cancer is caused by defects in the signalling mechanisms that govern cell proliferation and apoptosis. It is well known that calcium-dependent signalling pathways play a critical role in cell regulation. A tight control of calcium homeostasis by transporters and channel proteins is required to assure a proper functioning of the calcium-sensitive signal transduction pathways that regulate cell growth and apoptosis. The Plasma Membrane Calcium ATPase 2 (PMCA2) has been recently identified as a negative regulator of apoptosis that can play a significant role in cancer progression by conferring cells resistance to apoptosis. We have previously reported an inhibitory interaction between PMCA2 and the calcium-activated signalling molecule calcineurin in breast cancer cells. Here we demonstrate that disruption of the PMCA2/calcineurin interaction in a variety of human breast cancer cells results in activation of the calcineurin/NFAT pathway, up-regulation in the expression of the pro-apoptotic protein Fas Ligand, and in a concomitant loss of cell viability. Reduction in cell viability is the consequence of an increase in cell apoptosis. Impairment of the PMCA2/calcineurin interaction enhances paclitaxel-mediated cytotoxicity of breast tumoral cells. Our results suggest that therapeutic modulation of the PMCA2/calcineurin interaction might have important clinical applications to improve current treatments for breast cancer patients.

The propensity to disrupt and the disruption nucleolus of a characteristic function game

Gately [1974] recently introduced the concept of an individual player's “propensity to disrupt” a payoff vector in a three-person characteristic function game. As a generalisation of this concept we propose the “disruption nucleolus” of ann-person game. The properties and computational possibilities of this concept are analogous to those of the nucleolus itself. Two numerical examples are given.

An aggregate measure of financial ratios using a multiplicative DEA model

This paper examines the problems in the definition of the General Non-Parametric Corporate Performance (GNCP) and introduces a multiplicative linear programming as an alternative model for corporate performance. We verified and tested a statistically significant difference between the two models based on the application of 27 UK industries using six performance ratios. Our new model is found to be a more robust performance model than the previous standard Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.

Why are aggregate equity payouts pro-cyclical?

We use two general equilibrium models to explain why changes in the external economic environment result in pro-cyclical aggregate dividend payout behavior. Both models that we consider endogenize low elasticity of investment. The first model incorporates capital adjustment costs, while the second one assumes that risk-averse managers maximize their own objective function rather than shareholder wealth. We show that, while both models generate pro-cyclical aggregate dividends, a feature consistent with the observed business-cycle pattern of payouts from well-diversified portfolios, the second model provides a more likely explanation for this effect. Our findings emphasize the importance of incorporating agency conflicts when considering the relationship between the external economic environment and the financial behavior of businesses.

State advances and private retreats? Evidence from the decomposition of the Chinese manufacturing aggregate productivity decomposition in China

This paper is motivated by the recent debate on the existence and scale of China's 'Guo Jin Min Tui' phenomenon, which is often translated as 'the state sector advances and the private sector retreats'. We argue that the profound implication of an advancing state sector is not the size expansion of the state ownership in the economy per se, but the likely retardation of the development of the already financially constrained private sector and the issues around the sustainability of the already weakening Chinese economy growth. Drawing on recent methodological advances, we provide a critical analysis of the contributions of the state and non-state sectors in the aggregate Total Factor Productivity and its growth over the period of 1998-2007 to verify the existence of GJMT and its possible impacts on Chinese economic growth. Overall, we find strong and consistent evidence of a systematic and worsening resource misallocation within the state sector and/or between the state sectors and private sectors over time. This suggests that non-market forces allow resources to be driven away from their competitive market allocation and towards the inefficient state sector. Crown Copyright © 2014.

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Aggregate dividends and consumption smoothing

We show that net equity payouts from the corporate sector play a crucial role in helping individuals manage their consumption path across the business cycle. In particular, we show that, as investors' desire to smooth consumption increases, optimal aggregate dividends become both more volatile and more counter-cyclical to help counterbalance pro-cyclical labor income. These findings are robust to whether or not agency conflicts exist in the economy.

Hatékonyság növelése tervezéssel - avagy: aggregált tervezés alkalmazása egy magyar vállalatnál = Improving efficiency with production planning - Applying aggregate planning at a Hungarian company

A cikk alapvető kérdése, hogy miképpen használható a tervezés a termelési folyamatok, s ezzel a vállalati m}uködés egészének hatékonyságnövelése érdekében. A termeléstervezés szintjei és eszközei közül a középtávú aggregált tervezésre koncentrálunk. Ennek oka elsősorban az, hogy tapasztalatunk szerinte tervezési szint gyakorlati alkalmazása még nem tekinthető elterjedtnek, s ebből következően az eszköz alaposabb ismerete és alkalmazásának elterjedése jelentős tartalékokat tárhat fel a m}uködési hatékonyság növelése terén. A dolgozat a termeléstervezés klasszikusnak tekinthető modelljét alkalmazza egy hazai vállalat esetében. Az elemzés során vizsgáljuk a modell alkalmazhatóságát és a különböző tervezési alternatívák hatását a hatékonyság növelésére. A modell számítógépes megoldását a Microsoft Excel Solver programjával végeztük. _______ The article demonstrates how production planning, especially aggregate production planning can positively influence the competitiveness of production firms. First the structure of production planning, different, but interconnected levels of it are introduced than the aggregate planning is elaborated in more details. Reason for focusing on aggregate planning lies in the fact that according to our experience aggregate planning is an operation planning method applied least of all production planning methods in Hungary. Due to this we are convinced that demonstrating a real case study in this area can help managers to realize that adopting it can significantly influence e±ciency in operation and represent important source of development. We applied a classic aggregate planning model for a Hungarian producing company. We have tested the adaptability of the model and also the effect of different concrete planning scenarios on efficiency. Solution of the mathematical model is calculated using the program of Microsoft Excel Solver.

A beruházási projektek aggregált tőkeigénye = The Aggregate Capital Needs of Investment Projects

A tanulmány abból indul ki, hogy a beruházási projektek értékelése során egyidejűleg szükséges figyelembe venni a projektben lekötött tőkét és a lekötési időt mint jövedelemtermelési lehetőséget. Definiálja a projekt aggregált tőkeigényének fogalmát és megszerkeszti a vonatkozó mérőszámot. Az aggregált tőkeigény új vállalatgazdasági kategória, mely a beruházási projektek értékelésének egy új megközelítését teszi lehetővé. A projekt aggregált tőkeigénye azt a tőkeösszeget jelenti, mely a projekt működtetéséhez annak teljes élettartama alatt szükséges. A három meghatározó tényező: a kezdőtőke, a megtérülési idő (illetőleg az élettartam) és a megtérülés gyorsasága. A számszerűsítéshez minden évre vonatkozóan meg kell határozni az adott évben lekötött tőkét, ami az adott évig még meg nem térült tőkerészt jelenti, majd ezek összegzése révén adódik az aggregált tőkeigény. A mértékegység egységnyi tőke egyévi lekötése. A tanulmány az összefüggések modellszerű levezetése mellett gazdag példaanyagot is tartalmaz. Az elemzés bővíti a nettó jelenérték tartalmára vonatkozó ismereteket, rávilágít az aggregált tőkeigény ismeretének fontosságára mind a nettó jelenérték, mind a belső kamatláb esetében. _____ The starting point of this paper is that in the evaluation process of investment projects necessary to take into account simultaneously the tied-up capital and tiedup time as the income-generating potential. For this, it defines a special content of aggregate capital needs of investment projects, and elaborates an index. The aggregate capital needs is a new business economics category, which provides a new aspect to evaluate investment projects. This means the amount of capital needed for the operation of the project during its full duration. Three factors determine the aggregate capital needs for investments projects. These are the amount of initial investment, the payback period (or the duration) and the rapidity of capital payback. The solution is to sum up the yearly tied-up capital, that is, the notreturned parts of the capital for each year. The measurement unit is one unit tied-up capital for one year. The paper formulates the main relationships as models and by way of explanation presents some examples. The analysis highlights the importance of considering the aggregate capital needs furthermore widens knowledge regarding the net present value and internal rate of return.

Circadian rhythm disruption and post-surgical recovery

Circadian rhythms, patterns of each twenty-four hour period, are found in most bodily functions. The biological cycles of between 20 and 28 hours have a profound effect on an individual's mood, level of performance, and physical well being. Loss of synchrony of these biological rhythms occurs with hospitalization, surgery and anesthesia. The purpose of this comparative, correlational study was to determine the effects of circadian rhythm disruption in post-surgical recovery. Data were collected during the pre-operative and post-operative periods in the following indices: body temperature, blood pressure, heart rate, urine cortisol level and locomotor activity. The data were analyzed by cosinor analysis for evidence of circadian rhythmicity and disruptions throughout the six day study period which encompassed two days pre-operatively, two days post-operatively, and two days after hospital discharge. The sample consisted of five men and five women who served as their own pre-surgical control. The surgical procedures were varied. Findings showed evidence of circadian disruptions in all subjects post-operatively, lending support for the hypotheses.