Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Exciting dynamical behavior in a network of two coupled rings of Chen oscillators

We study exotic patterns appearing in a network of coupled Chen oscillators. Namely, we consider a network of two rings coupled through a “buffer” cell, with Z3×Z5 symmetry group. Numerical simulations of the network reveal steady states, rotating waves in one ring and quasiperiodic behavior in the other, and chaotic states in the two rings, to name a few. The different patterns seem to arise through a sequence of Hopf bifurcations, period-doubling, and halving-period bifurcations. The network architecture seems to explain certain observed features, such as equilibria and the rotating waves, whereas the properties of the chaotic oscillator may explain others, such as the quasiperiodic and chaotic states. We use XPPAUT and MATLAB to compute numerically the relevant states.

Generalization of Wertheim's theory for the assembly of various types of rings

We generalize Wertheim's first order perturbation theory to account for the effect in the thermodynamics of the self-assembly of rings characterized by two energy scales. The theory is applied to a lattice model of patchy particles and tested against Monte Carlo simulations on a fcc lattice. These particles have 2 patches of type A and 10 patches of type B, which may form bonds AA or AB that decrease the energy by epsilon(AA) and by epsilon(AB) = r epsilon(AA), respectively. The angle theta between the 2 A-patches on each particle is fixed at 601, 90 degrees or 120 degrees. For values of r below 1/2 and above a threshold r(th)(theta) the models exhibit a phase diagram with two critical points. Both theory and simulation predict that rth increases when theta decreases. We show that the mechanism that prevents phase separation for models with decreasing values of theta is related to the formation of loops containing AB bonds. Moreover, we show that by including the free energy of B-rings ( loops containing one AB bond), the theory describes the trends observed in the simulation results, but that for the lowest values of theta, the theoretical description deteriorates due to the increasing number of loops containing more than one AB bond.

Building a person home behavior model based on data from smart house sensors 2015

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Additive adaptive thinking in 1st and 2nd grades pupils

This paper is part of the Project “Adaptive thinking and flexible computation: Critical issues”. It discusses what is meant by adaptive thinking and presents the results of individual interviews with four pupils. The main goal of the study is to understand pupils’ reasoning when solving numerical tasks involving additive situations, and identify features associated with adaptive thinking. The results show that, in the case of first grade pupils, the semantic aspects of the problem are involved in its resolution and the pupils’ performance appears to be related to the development of number sense. The 2nd grade pupils seem to see the quantitative difference as an invariant numerical relationship.

Phase behavior of shape-changing spheroids

We introduce a simple model for a biaxial nematic liquid crystal. This consists of hard spheroids that can switch shape between prolate (rodlike) and oblate (platelike) subject to an energy penalty Δε. The spheroids are approximated as hard Gaussian overlap particles and are treated at the level of Onsager's second-virial description. We use both bifurcation analysis and a numerical minimization of the free energy to show that, for additive particle shapes, (i) there is no stable biaxial phase even for Δε=0 (although there is a metastable biaxial phase in the same density range as the stable uniaxial phase) and (ii) the isotropic-to-nematic transition is into either one of two degenerate uniaxial phases, rod rich or plate rich. We confirm that even a small amount of shape nonadditivity may stabilize the biaxial nematic phase.

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.

An adaptive IoT management infrastructure for eco transport networks

The complexity associated with fast growing of B2B and the lack of a (complete) suite of open standards makes difficulty to maintain the underlying collaborative processes. Aligned to this challenge, this paper aims to be a contribution to an open architecture of logistics and transport processes management system. A model of an open integrated system is being defined as an open computational responsibility from the embedded systems (on-board) as well as a reference implementation (prototype) of a host system to validate the proposed open interfaces. Embedded subsystem can, natively, be prepared to cooperate with other on-board units and with IT-systems in an infrastructure commonly referred to as a center information system or back-office. In interaction with a central system the proposal is to adopt an open framework for cooperation where the embedded unit or the unit placed somewhere (land/sea) interacts in response to a set of implemented capabilities.

Unmixing hyperspectral data: independent and dependent component analysis

The development of high spatial resolution airborne and spaceborne sensors has improved the capability of ground-based data collection in the fields of agriculture, geography, geology, mineral identification, detection [2, 3], and classification [4–8]. The signal read by the sensor from a given spatial element of resolution and at a given spectral band is a mixing of components originated by the constituent substances, termed endmembers, located at that element of resolution. This chapter addresses hyperspectral unmixing, which is the decomposition of the pixel spectra into a collection of constituent spectra, or spectral signatures, and their corresponding fractional abundances indicating the proportion of each endmember present in the pixel [9, 10]. Depending on the mixing scales at each pixel, the observed mixture is either linear or nonlinear [11, 12]. The linear mixing model holds when the mixing scale is macroscopic [13]. The nonlinear model holds when the mixing scale is microscopic (i.e., intimate mixtures) [14, 15]. The linear model assumes negligible interaction among distinct endmembers [16, 17]. The nonlinear model assumes that incident solar radiation is scattered by the scene through multiple bounces involving several endmembers [18]. Under the linear mixing model and assuming that the number of endmembers and their spectral signatures are known, hyperspectral unmixing is a linear problem, which can be addressed, for example, under the maximum likelihood setup [19], the constrained least-squares approach [20], the spectral signature matching [21], the spectral angle mapper [22], and the subspace projection methods [20, 23, 24]. Orthogonal subspace projection [23] reduces the data dimensionality, suppresses undesired spectral signatures, and detects the presence of a spectral signature of interest. The basic concept is to project each pixel onto a subspace that is orthogonal to the undesired signatures. As shown in Settle [19], the orthogonal subspace projection technique is equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. This projection technique was extended by three unconstrained least-squares approaches [24] (signature space orthogonal projection, oblique subspace projection, target signature space orthogonal projection). Other works using maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) framework [25] and projection pursuit [26, 27] have also been applied to hyperspectral data. In most cases the number of endmembers and their signatures are not known. Independent component analysis (ICA) is an unsupervised source separation process that has been applied with success to blind source separation, to feature extraction, and to unsupervised recognition [28, 29]. ICA consists in finding a linear decomposition of observed data yielding statistically independent components. Given that hyperspectral data are, in given circumstances, linear mixtures, ICA comes to mind as a possible tool to unmix this class of data. In fact, the application of ICA to hyperspectral data has been proposed in reference 30, where endmember signatures are treated as sources and the mixing matrix is composed by the abundance fractions, and in references 9, 25, and 31–38, where sources are the abundance fractions of each endmember. In the first approach, we face two problems: (1) The number of samples are limited to the number of channels and (2) the process of pixel selection, playing the role of mixed sources, is not straightforward. In the second approach, ICA is based on the assumption of mutually independent sources, which is not the case of hyperspectral data, since the sum of the abundance fractions is constant, implying dependence among abundances. This dependence compromises ICA applicability to hyperspectral images. In addition, hyperspectral data are immersed in noise, which degrades the ICA performance. IFA [39] was introduced as a method for recovering independent hidden sources from their observed noisy mixtures. IFA implements two steps. First, source densities and noise covariance are estimated from the observed data by maximum likelihood. Second, sources are reconstructed by an optimal nonlinear estimator. Although IFA is a well-suited technique to unmix independent sources under noisy observations, the dependence among abundance fractions in hyperspectral imagery compromises, as in the ICA case, the IFA performance. Considering the linear mixing model, hyperspectral observations are in a simplex whose vertices correspond to the endmembers. Several approaches [40–43] have exploited this geometric feature of hyperspectral mixtures [42]. Minimum volume transform (MVT) algorithm [43] determines the simplex of minimum volume containing the data. The MVT-type approaches are complex from the computational point of view. Usually, these algorithms first find the convex hull defined by the observed data and then fit a minimum volume simplex to it. Aiming at a lower computational complexity, some algorithms such as the vertex component analysis (VCA) [44], the pixel purity index (PPI) [42], and the N-FINDR [45] still find the minimum volume simplex containing the data cloud, but they assume the presence in the data of at least one pure pixel of each endmember. This is a strong requisite that may not hold in some data sets. In any case, these algorithms find the set of most pure pixels in the data. Hyperspectral sensors collects spatial images over many narrow contiguous bands, yielding large amounts of data. For this reason, very often, the processing of hyperspectral data, included unmixing, is preceded by a dimensionality reduction step to reduce computational complexity and to improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Principal component analysis (PCA) [46], maximum noise fraction (MNF) [47], and singular value decomposition (SVD) [48] are three well-known projection techniques widely used in remote sensing in general and in unmixing in particular. The newly introduced method [49] exploits the structure of hyperspectral mixtures, namely the fact that spectral vectors are nonnegative. The computational complexity associated with these techniques is an obstacle to real-time implementations. To overcome this problem, band selection [50] and non-statistical [51] algorithms have been introduced. This chapter addresses hyperspectral data source dependence and its impact on ICA and IFA performances. The study consider simulated and real data and is based on mutual information minimization. Hyperspectral observations are described by a generative model. This model takes into account the degradation mechanisms normally found in hyperspectral applications—namely, signature variability [52–54], abundance constraints, topography modulation, and system noise. The computation of mutual information is based on fitting mixtures of Gaussians (MOG) to data. The MOG parameters (number of components, means, covariances, and weights) are inferred using the minimum description length (MDL) based algorithm [55]. We study the behavior of the mutual information as a function of the unmixing matrix. The conclusion is that the unmixing matrix minimizing the mutual information might be very far from the true one. Nevertheless, some abundance fractions might be well separated, mainly in the presence of strong signature variability, a large number of endmembers, and high SNR. We end this chapter by sketching a new methodology to blindly unmix hyperspectral data, where abundance fractions are modeled as a mixture of Dirichlet sources. This model enforces positivity and constant sum sources (full additivity) constraints. The mixing matrix is inferred by an expectation-maximization (EM)-type algorithm. This approach is in the vein of references 39 and 56, replacing independent sources represented by MOG with mixture of Dirichlet sources. Compared with the geometric-based approaches, the advantage of this model is that there is no need to have pure pixels in the observations. The chapter is organized as follows. Section 6.2 presents a spectral radiance model and formulates the spectral unmixing as a linear problem accounting for abundance constraints, signature variability, topography modulation, and system noise. Section 6.3 presents a brief resume of ICA and IFA algorithms. Section 6.4 illustrates the performance of IFA and of some well-known ICA algorithms with experimental data. Section 6.5 studies the ICA and IFA limitations in unmixing hyperspectral data. Section 6.6 presents results of ICA based on real data. Section 6.7 describes the new blind unmixing scheme and some illustrative examples. Section 6.8 concludes with some remarks.

Trypanosoma cruzi strains: behavior after passage into authoctonous or foreign species of triatomine (biological and biochemical patterns)

The behavior of T. cruzi strains from S. Felipe - BA (19 SF, 21 SF and 22 SF) classified as Type II Zymodeme 2, was investigated after passage through the authoctonous (P. megistus) and foreign vectors (T. infestans and R. prolixus). For each strain Swiss mice were infected: I - with blood forms (control); II - with metacyclic forms (MF) from P. megistus; III - with MF from T. infestans; IV - with MF from R. prolixus. Inocula: MF from the three species of triatomine, 60 to 120 days after feeding in infected mice, adjusted to 10 4. Biological behavior in mice (parasitemia, morphology, mortality, virulence and pathogenicity) after passage through triatomine was compared with data from the same strain in control mice. Isoenzymic electrophoresis (ASAT, ALAT, PGM, GPI) were also performed after culture into Warren medium. The three strains maintained the isoenzyme profiles (zymodeme 2), in the control groups and after passages through different species of triatomine. Biological characterization disclosed Type II strains patterns for all groups. An increased virulence was observed with the 22 SF strain isolated from P. megistus and T. infestans and higher levels of parasitemia and predominance of slender forms in mice inoculated with the 19 SF and 21 SF from these same species. Results indicate that the passage through the two species T. infestans and P. megistus had a positive influence on the virulence of the regional strains of S. Felipe, regardless of being autocthonous (P. megistus) or foreign to the area (T. infestans).

A single method to stain Malassezia furfur and Corynebacterium minutissimum in scales

A single and practical method to slain Malassezia furfur and Corynebacterium minutissimum in lesions' scales is described. The scales are collected by pressing small pieces of scotch tape (about 4 cm lenght and 2 cm width) onto the lesions and following withdrawl the furfuraceous scales will remain on the glue side. These pieces are then immersed for some minutes in lactophenol-cotton blue stain. Following absorption of the stain the scales are washed in current water to remove the excess of blue stain, dried with filter paper, dehydrated via passage in two bottles containing absolute alcohol and then placed in xylene in a centrifugation tube. The xylene dissolves the scotch tape glue and the scales fall free in the tube. After centrifugation and decantation the scales concentrated on the bottom of the tube are collected with a platinum-loop, placed in Canada balsam on a microscopy slide and closed with a cover slip. The preparations are then ready to be submitted to microscopic examination. Other stains may also be used instead of lactophenol-cotton blue. This method is simple, easily performed, and offers good conditions to study these fungi as well as being useful for the diagnosis of the diseases that they cause.

Adaptive Learning in Games: Defining Profiles of Competitor Players

Artificial Intelligence has been applied to dynamic games for many years. The ultimate goal is creating responses in virtual entities that display human-like reasoning in the definition of their behaviors. However, virtual entities that can be mistaken for real persons are yet very far from being fully achieved. This paper presents an adaptive learning based methodology for the definition of players’ profiles, with the purpose of supporting decisions of virtual entities. The proposed methodology is based on reinforcement learning algorithms, which are responsible for choosing, along the time, with the gathering of experience, the most appropriate from a set of different learning approaches. These learning approaches have very distinct natures, from mathematical to artificial intelligence and data analysis methodologies, so that the methodology is prepared for very distinct situations. This way it is equipped with a variety of tools that individually can be useful for each encountered situation. The proposed methodology is tested firstly on two simpler computer versus human player games: the rock-paper-scissors game, and a penalty-shootout simulation. Finally, the methodology is applied to the definition of action profiles of electricity market players; players that compete in a dynamic game-wise environment, in which the main goal is the achievement of the highest possible profits in the market.

Demonstration of the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but with exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets’ scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behavior. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This paper presents the Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) – a simulator based on multi-agent technology that provides a realistic platform to simulate electricity markets, the numerous negotiation opportunities and the participating entities.

Evolutive behavior towards cardiomyopathy of treated (nifurtimox or benznidazole) and untreated chronic chagasic patients

The aim of this work was to compare the evolution of chronic chagasic untreated patients (UTPs) with that of benznidazole or nifurtimox-treated patients (TPs). A longitudinal study from a low endemic area (Santa Fe city, Argentina) was performed during an average period of 14 years. Serological and parasitological analyses with clinical exams, ECG and X-chest ray were carried out. At the onset, 19/198 infected patients showed chagasic cardiomyopathy (CrChM) while 179 were asymptomatic. In this latter group the frequency of CrChM during the follow-up was lower in TPs compared with UTPs (3.2% vs 7%). Within the CrChM group, 2/5 TPs showed aggravated myopathy whereas this happened in 9/14 UTPs. Comparing the clinical evolution of all patients, 5.9% of TPs and 13% of UTPs had unfavourable evolution, but the difference is not statistically relevant. Serological titers were assessed by IIF. Titers equal to or lower than 1/64 were obtained in 86% of the TPs, but only in 38% of UTPs. The differences were statistically significant (geometric mean: 49.36 vs. 98.2). Antiparasitic assessment of the drugs (xenodiagnosis) proved to be effective. The low sensitivity in chronic chagasic patients must be born in mind. Despite treated patients showed a better clinical evolution and lower antibody levels than untreated ones, it is necessary to carry on doing research in order to improve therapeutic guidelines, according to the risk/benefit equation and based on scientific and ethical principles.