On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

Parental heart rate variability during pediatric consultation

OBJECTIVE: Research regarding communication between pediatricians and parents in pediatric consultation has mainly focused on parental satisfaction, on its influence on compliance and on communication techniques used by pediatricians. However, there is paucity in research regarding parental stress levels during pediatric consultation. Therefore, the aim of our study was to measure parental heart rate variability related as a measure of stress levels during pediatric consultation. METHODS: Video recordings with simultaneous monitoring and recording of parental heart rate were obtained from 38 pediatric consultations in the ambulatory or hospital setting of the department of pediatrics (HFR, Fribourg, Switzerland). Pulse variation was measured every 5 seconds and heart rate variability (increase or decrease were analyzed) in relation to various sections of the consultation. RESULTS: Heart rate significantly decreased at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation (p= 0.0567). In addition, heart rate significantly decreased at the beginning of clinical examination (p= 0.0476) compared to psychosocial history taking. During the discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis, heart rate was significantly elevated compared to the discussion of the prognosis (p=0.0505). CONCLUSION: We conclude that pediatric consultation has a significant impact on parental stress levels shown by parental heart variability. In general, it can be shown that stress levels significantly decrease at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation. In addition, stress levels decrease at the beginning of clinical examination and increase during psychosocial history taking and discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of a thorough consultation which include a comprehensive clinical examination with special care taken regarding psychosocial issues and information given regarding the diagnosis.

Confounding effects of heart rate on pulse wave velocity in paced patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pulse wave velocity (PWV), an index of arterial wall stiffness, is modulated by blood pressure (BP). Whether heart rate (HR) is also a modulator of PWV is controversial. Recent research involving mainly patients with high aortic PWV have found either no change or a positive correlation between the two. Given that PWV is increasingly being measured in cardiovascular studies, the relationship between HR and PWV should be known in patients with preserved arterial wall elasticity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of HR as a determinant of the variability in PWV in patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis. DESIGN AND METHODS: Fourteen patients (five female, nine male; aged 68 +/- 8 years) were evaluated post pacemaker implantation due to sick sinus or carotid hypersensitivity syndromes. Carotid-femoral PWV was measured at rest and during atrial pacing at 80, 90 and 100 bpm (paced HR). Arterial femoral blood flow (AFBF) was measured by echodoppler. RESULTS: PWV increased from 6.2 +/- 1.5 m/s (mean +/- SD) during resting sinus rhythm (HR 62 +/- 8 bpm; mean +/- SD) to 6.8 +/- 1.0, 7.0 +/- 0.9, and 7.6 +/- 1.1 m/s at pacing rates of 80, 90 and 100 bpm, respectively (P < 0.0001). Systolic (SBP) and mean blood pressure (MBP) remained constant at all HR levels, whereas AFBF increased in a linear fashion. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that even in patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis, HR is a potential modulator of carotid-femoral PWV.

The difference between the basal metabolic rate and the sleeping metabolic rate in Japanese.

Previous studies have demonstrated the difference between the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and the sleeping metabolic rate (SMR): however, the difference in the Japanese population has not yet been explored. This study examined the relationship between the BMR and SMR in ninety-four healthy Japanese subjects (37 males and 57 females, 39 +/- 12 y of age and 22.0 +/- 7.4% body fat) in a respiratory chamber. The SMR was significantly lower than the BMR (1416 +/- 245 vs. 1492 +/- 256 kcal/d): however, there was a highly significant correlation between the two (r = 0.867; p < 0.001). The ratio of SMR/BMR largely varied among individuals (0.95 +/-0.08, 8.4% of the coefficient of variation). The ratio was significantly lower in males than in females (0.93 +/- 0.10 vs. 0.97 +/- 0.06, p < 0.05). None of the anthropometric measures (age, weight, body mass index, body surface area or percent body fat) correlated with the ratio. These results showed that SMR was 95%, of BMR on average in a healthy Japanese group. However, when applied over a longer time period (24 h or more), the difference tends to become negligible for most analyses in a group. Although the difference between SMR and BMR will induce a 5% gap of physical activity level defined as the total energy expenditure divided by the BMR or SMR, this factor seems to have little practical importance in epidemiological research.

Assessment of adult formulas for glomerular filtration rate estimation in children.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is an important diagnostic instrument in clinical practice. The National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Quality Initiative (NKF-KDOQI) guidelines do not recommend using formulas developed for adults to estimate GFR in children; however, studies confirming these recommendations are scarce. The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, and the Cockcroft-Gault formula in children with various stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A total of 550 inulin clearance (iGFR) measurements for 391 children were analyzed. The cohort was divided into three groups: group 1, with iGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 2, with iGFR between 60 and 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 3, with iGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). RESULTS: All formulas overestimate iGFR with a significant bias (p < 0.001), present poor accuracies, and have poor Spearman correlations. For an accuracy of 10 %, only 11, 6, and 27 % of the eGFRs are accurate when using the MDRD, CKD-EPI, and Cockcroft-Gault formulas, respectively. For an accuracy of 30 %, these formulas do not reach the NKF-KDOQI guidelines for validation, with only 25, 20, and 70 % of the eGFRs, respectively, being accurate. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, the performances of all of these formulas are unreliable for eGFR in children across all CKD stages and cannot therefore be applied in the pediatric population group.

Moduli of smoothness and rate of a.e. convergence for some convolution operators

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Isochorismate synthase (PchA), the first and rate-limiting enzyme in salicylate biosynthesis of Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa the extracellular metabolite and siderophore pyochelin is synthesized from two major precursors, chorismate and l-cysteine via salicylate as an intermediate. The regulatory role of isochorismate synthase, the first enzyme in the pyochelin biosynthetic pathway, was studied. This enzyme is encoded by pchA, the last gene in the pchDCBA operon. The PchA protein was purified to apparent electrophoretic homogeneity from a PchA-overexpressing P. aeruginosa strain. The native enzyme was a 52-kDa monomer in solution, and its activity strictly depended on Mg(2+). At pH 7.0, the optimum, a K(m) = 4.5 microm and a k(cat) = 43.1 min(-1) were determined for chorismate. No feedback inhibitors or other allosteric effectors were found. The intracellular PchA concentration critically determined the rate of salicylate formation both in vitro and in vivo. In cultures grown in iron-limiting media to high cell densities, overexpression of the pchA gene resulted in overproduction of salicylate as well as in enhanced pyochelin formation. From this work and earlier studies, it is proposed that one important factor influencing the flux through the pyochelin biosynthetic pathway is the PchA concentration, which is determined at a transcriptional level, with pyochelin acting as a positive signal and iron as a negative signal.

Effects of caffeine on energy metabolism, heart rate, and methylxanthine metabolism in lean and obese women.

The magnitude of coffee-induced thermogenesis and the influence of coffee ingestion on substrate oxidation were investigated in 10 lean and 10 obese women, over two 24-h periods in a respiratory chamber. On one occasion the subjects consumed caffeinated coffee and on the other occasion, decaffeinated coffee. The magnitude of thermogenesis was smaller in obese (4.9 +/- 2.0%) than in lean subjects (7.6 +/- 1.3%). The thermogeneic response to caffeine was prolonged during the night in lean women only. The coffee-induced stimulation of energy expenditure was mediated by a concomitant increase in lipid and carbohydrate oxidation. During the next day, in postabsorptive basal conditions, the thermogenic effect of coffee had vanished, but a significant increase in lipid oxidation was observed in both groups. The magnitude of this effect was, however, blunted in obese women (lipid oxidation increased by 29 and 10% in lean and obese women, respectively). Caffeine increased urinary epinephrine excretion. Whereas urinary caffeine excretion was similar in both groups, obese women excreted more theobromine, theophylline, and paraxanthine than lean women. Despite the high levels of urinary methylxanthine excretion, thermogenesis and lipid oxidation were less stimulated in obese than in lean subjects.

Epidemiology of Chagas disease in Guatemala: infection rate of Triatoma dimidiata, Triatoma nitida and Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) with Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli (Kinetoplastida, Trypanosomatidae)

A five-year domiciliary collection in the 22 departments of Guatemala showed that out of 4,128 triatomines collected, 1,675 were Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811), 2,344 were Rhodnius prolixus Stal 1859, and only 109 were T. nitida Usinger 1939. The Chagas disease parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, was found in all three species. Their natural infection rates were similar in the first two species (20.6%; 19.1%) and slightly lower in T. nitida(13.8%). However there was no significant difference in the infection rates in the three species (p = 0.131). T. dimidiata males have higher infection rates than females (p = 0.030), whereas for R. prolixus there is no difference in infection rates between males and females (p = 0.114). The sex ratios for all three species were significantly skewed. More males than females were found inside houses for T. dimidiata (p < 0.0001) and T. nitida (p = 0.011); a different pattern was seen for R. prolixus (p = 0.037) where more females were found. Sex ratio is proposed as an index to show the mobility of T. dimidiata in different populations. T. dimidiata is widely distributed in the country, and is also the main vector in at least ten departments, but R. prolixus with higher vectorial capacity is an important vector in at least two departments.

Infection rate of Babesia spp. sporokinetes in engorged Boophilus microplus from an area of enzootic stability in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The infection rates of Babesia sporokinetes in engorged Boophilus microplus were evaluated during a 2-year period in a dairy farm located in an area of enzootic stability. Every 14 days engorged females were collected from calves and from adult animals. Ticks were incubated at 27 ± 0.5ºC and 80-90% relative humidity and Babesia infection rates were determined by microscopic examination of Giemsa-stained hemolymph smears. After 52 collections, 2105 ticks were obtained, from which 982 were collected from calves and 1123 from cows. The total Babesia infection rate was 10%, however the incidence was higher (p < 0.05) in ticks collected from calves (17.5%) than in those collected from cows (3.6%). Females collected from cows showed the highest infection rates in January, March, and August, and absence of infection in April and May. Ticks feeding on calves were infected throughout the experimental period. The infection rates of engorged females collected from naturally infected calves that were artificially infested with Babesia-free-larvae of B. microplus gradually decreased until the calves were four months old. No differences were observed among infection rates of ticks collected from calves maintained under natural conditions.

Appropriateness and long-term discontinuation rate of biological therapies in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.

Performance of an ICU ventilator and two turbin-based ventilators dedicated to non invasive ventilation (NIV) in simulated high inspiratory effort and rate: a NIV-bench-study.

INTRODUCTION. The role of turbine-based NIV ventilators (TBV) versus ICU ventilators with NIV mode activated (ICUV) to deliver NIV in case of severe respiratory failure remains debated. OBJECTIVES. To compare the response time and pressurization capacity of TBV and ICUV during simulated NIV with normal and increased respiratory demand, in condition of normal and obstructive respiratory mechanics. METHODS. In a two-chamber lung model, a ventilator simulated normal (P0.1 = 2 mbar, respiratory rate RR = 15/min) or increased (P0.1 = 6 mbar, RR = 25/min) respiratory demand. NIV was simulated by connecting the lung model (compliance 100 ml/mbar; resistance 5 or 20 l/mbar) to a dummy head equipped with a naso-buccal mask. Connections allowed intentional leaks (29 ± 5 % of insufflated volume). Ventilators to test: Servo-i (Maquet), V60 and Vision (Philips Respironics) were connected via a standard circuit to the mask. Applied pressure support levels (PSL) were 7 mbar for normal and 14 mbar for increased demand. Airway pressure and flow were measured in the ventilator circuit and in the simulated airway. Ventilator performance was assessed by determining trigger delay (Td, ms), pressure time product at 300 ms (PTP300, mbar s) and inspiratory tidal volume (VT, ml) and compared by three-way ANOVA for the effect of inspiratory effort, resistance and the ventilator. Differences between ventilators for each condition were tested by oneway ANOVA and contrast (JMP 8.0.1, p\0.05). RESULTS. Inspiratory demand and resistance had a significant effect throughout all comparisons. Ventilator data figure in Table 1 (normal demand) and 2 (increased demand): (a) different from Servo-i, (b) different from V60.CONCLUSION. In this NIV bench study, with leaks, trigger delay was shorter for TBV with normal respiratory demand. By contrast, it was shorter for ICUV when respiratory demand was high. ICUV afforded better pressurization (PTP 300) with increased demand and PSL, particularly with increased resistance. TBV provided a higher inspiratory VT (i.e., downstream from the leaks) with normal demand, and a significantly (although minimally) lower VT with increased demand and PSL.