Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Human GnRH deficiency: a unique disease model to unravel the ontogeny of GnRH neurons.

Evolutionary survival of a species is largely a function of its reproductive fitness. In mammals, a sparsely populated and widely dispersed network of hypothalamic neurons, the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons, serve as the pilot light of reproduction via coordinated secretion of GnRH. Since it first description, human GnRH deficiency has been recognized both clinically and genetically as a heterogeneous disease. A spectrum of different reproductive phenotypes comprised of congenital GnRH deficiency with anosmia (Kallmann syndrome), congenital GnRH deficiency with normal olfaction (normosmic idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism), and adult-onset hypogonadotropic hypogonadism has been described. In the last two decades, several genes and pathways which govern GnRH ontogeny have been discovered by studying humans with GnRH deficiency. More importantly, detailed study of these patients has highlighted the emerging theme of oligogenicity and genotypic synergism, and also expanded the phenotypic diversity with the documentation of reversal of GnRH deficiency later in adulthood in some patients. The underlying genetic defect has also helped understand the associated nonreproductive phenotypes seen in some of these patients. These insights now provide practicing clinicians with targeted genetic diagnostic strategies and also impact on clinical management.

Risk Attitude And Wage Growth: Replication And Reconstruction

We replicate Shaw (1996) who found that individual wage growth is higher for individuals with greater preference for risk taking. Expanding her dataset with more American observations and data for Germany, Spain and Italy, we find mixed support for the earlier results. We present and estimate a new model and find that in particular the wage level is sensitive to attitudes towards risk taking. Comments given at the Labour Economics Conference in honour of Niels Westergaard (Nyborg, August 2008) and EALE 2008 (Amsterdam) and at seminars in Maastricht,Reus and Essen (RWI) are gratefully acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant number SEJ2007-66318) and from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA. JEL code: J24; J30. Key words: wage growth, risk, post-school investment.

A cell-based model of extracellular-matrix-guided endothelial cell migration during angiogenesis.

Angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels sprouting from existing ones, occurs in several situations like wound healing, tissue remodeling, and near growing tumors. Under hypoxic conditions, tumor cells secrete growth factors, including VEGF. VEGF activates endothelial cells (ECs) in nearby vessels, leading to the migration of ECs out of the vessel and the formation of growing sprouts. A key process in angiogenesis is cellular self-organization, and previous modeling studies have identified mechanisms for producing networks and sprouts. Most theoretical studies of cellular self-organization during angiogenesis have ignored the interactions of ECs with the extra-cellular matrix (ECM), the jelly or hard materials that cells live in. Apart from providing structural support to cells, the ECM may play a key role in the coordination of cellular motility during angiogenesis. For example, by modifying the ECM, ECs can affect the motility of other ECs, long after they have left. Here, we present an explorative study of the cellular self-organization resulting from such ECM-coordinated cell migration. We show that a set of biologically-motivated, cell behavioral rules, including chemotaxis, haptotaxis, haptokinesis, and ECM-guided proliferation suffice for forming sprouts and branching vascular trees.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

A rapid, reliable method of evaluating growth and viability of intraerythrocytic protozoan hemoparasites using fluorescence flow cytometry

Fluorescence flow cytometry was employed to assess the potential of a vital dye, hydroethiedine, for use in the detection and monitoring of the viability of hemoparasites in infected erythrocytes, using Babesia bovis as a model parasite. The studies demonstrated that hydroethidine is taken up by B. bovis and metabolically converted to the DNA binding fluorochrone, ethidium. Following uptake of the dye, erythrocytes contamine viable parasites were readily distinguished and quantitated. Timed studies with the parasiticidal drug, Ganaseg, showed that it is possible to use the fluorochrome assay to monitor the effects of the drug on the rate of replication and viability of B. bovis in culture. The assay provides a rapid method for evaluation of the in vitro effect of drugs on hemoparasites and for analysis of the effect of various components of the immune response, such as lymphokines, monocyte products, antibodies, and effector cells (T, NK, LAK, ADCC) on the growth and viability of intraerythrocytic parasites.

In vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells on laminin and collagen type I-coated membranes under static and dynamic conditions.

This study investigates in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells under static conditions and mechanical stimulation. The cells were cultured on collagen type I- and laminin-coated silicon membranes. Using a Flexcell device for mechanical stimulation, a cyclic strain of 0-20% was applied in a strain-stress-time model (stretch, 104 min relaxation, 15 s), imitating physiological bladder filling and voiding. Cell proliferation and alpha-actin, calponin, and caldesmon phenotype marker expression were analyzed. Nonstretched cells showed significant better growth on laminin during the first 8 days, thereafter becoming comparable to cells grown on collagen type I. Cyclic strain significantly reduced cell growth on both surfaces; however, better growth was observed on laminin. Neither the type of surface nor mechanical stimulation influenced the expression pattern of phenotype markers; alpha-actin was predominantly expressed. Coating with the extracellular matrix protein laminin improved in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells.

CD4+CD25-mTGFbeta+ T cells induced by nasal application of ovalbumin transfer tolerance in a therapeutic model of asthma.

Background: Intranasal administration of high amount of allergen was shown to induce tolerance and to reverse the allergic phenotype. However, mechanisms of tolerance induction via the mucosal route are still unclear. Objectives: To characterize the therapeutic effects of intranasal application of ovalbumin (OVA) in a mouse model of bronchial inflammation as well as the cellular and molecular mechanisms leading to protection upon re-exposure to allergen. Methods: After induction of bronchial inflammation, mice were treated intranasally with OVA and re-exposed to OVA aerosols 10 days later. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF), T cell proliferation and cytokine secretion were examined. The respective role of CD4(+)CD25(+) and CD4(+)CD25(-) T cells in the induction of tolerance was analysed. Results: Intranasal treatment with OVA drastically reduced inflammatory cell recruitment into BALF and bronchial hyperresponsiveness upon re-exposure to allergen. Both OVA- specific-proliferation of T cells, T(h)1 and T(h)2 cytokine production from lung and bronchial lymph nodes were inhibited. Transfer of CD4(+)CD25(-) T cells, which strongly expressed membrane-bound transforming growth factor beta (mTGF beta), from tolerized mice protected asthmatic recipient mice from subsequent aerosol challenges. The presence of CD4(+)CD25(+)(Foxp3(+)) T cells during the process of tolerization was indispensable to CD4(+)CD25(-) T cells to acquire regulatory properties. Whereas the presence of IL-10 appeared dispensable in this model, the suppression of CD4(+)CD25(-)mTGF beta(+) T cells in transfer experiments significantly impaired the down-regulation of airways inflammation. Conclusion: Nasal application of OVA in established asthma led to the induction of CD4(+)CD25(-)mTGF beta(+) T cells with regulatory properties, able to confer protection upon allergen re-exposure.

Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investment and the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk of being replaced tend to choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates a trade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractual relationships. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificing managerial selection may be optimal at early stages of economic development and when access to information is limited. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increases the return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, where managerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Better institutions, in the form of a richer contracting environment and less severe informational frictions, speed up the transition to short-term relationships.

Long-term efficacy of ciliary muscle gene transfer of three sFlt-1 variants in a rat model of laser-induced choroidal neovascularization.

Inhibition of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) has become the standard of care for patients presenting with wet age-related macular degeneration. However, monthly intravitreal injections are required for optimal efficacy. We have previously shown that electroporation enabled ciliary muscle gene transfer results in sustained protein secretion into the vitreous for up to 9 months. Here, we evaluated the long-term efficacy of ciliary muscle gene transfer of three soluble VEGF receptor-1 (sFlt-1) variants in a rat model of laser-induced choroidal neovascularization (CNV). All three sFlt-1 variants significantly diminished vascular leakage and neovascularization as measured by fluorescein angiography (FA) and flatmount choroid at 3 weeks. FA and infracyanine angiography demonstrated that inhibition of CNV was maintained for up to 6 months after gene transfer of the two shortest sFlt-1 variants. Throughout, clinical efficacy was correlated with sustained VEGF neutralization in the ocular media. Interestingly, treatment with sFlt-1 induced a 50% downregulation of VEGF messenger RNA levels in the retinal pigment epithelium and the choroid. We demonstrate for the first time that non-viral gene transfer can achieve a long-term reduction of VEGF levels and efficacy in the treatment of CNV.Gene Therapy advance online publication, 27 June 2013; doi:10.1038/gt.2013.36.

Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth did emerge in London a decade later than first reported for New York. The question is whether there was simply a delay before London conformed to the global city model, or whether another distinct cause was at work in both cases. This paper proposes that the critical factor in both cases was actually an upsurge of immigration from poor countries providing an elastic supply of cheap labour. This hypothesis and its counterpart based on growth in elite jobs are tested econometrically for the British case with regional data spanning 1975-2008, finding some support for both effects, but with immigration from poor countries as the crucial influence in late 1990s London. Keywords: regional labour markets; wages; employment; international migration; consumer demand JEL Codes: J21, J23, F22, R12

Biometal muscle to restore atrial transport function in a permanent atrial fibrillation animal model: a potential tool in the treatment of end-stage heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Half of the patients with end-stage heart failure suffer from persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Atrial kick (AK) accounts for 10-15% of the ejection fraction. A device restoring AK should significantly improve cardiac output (CO) and possibly delay ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. This study has been designed to assess the mechanical effects of a motorless pump on the right chambers of the heart in an animal model. METHODS: Atripump is a dome-shaped biometal actuator electrically driven by a pacemaker-like control unit. In eight sheep, the device was sutured onto the right atrium (RA). AF was simulated with rapid atrial pacing. RA ejection fraction (EF) was assessed with intracardiac ultrasound (ICUS) in baseline, AF and assisted-AF status. In two animals, the pump was left in place for 4 weeks and then explanted. Histology examination was carried out. The mean values for single measurement per animal with +/-SD were analysed. RESULTS: The contraction rate of the device was 60 per min. RA EF was 41% in baseline, 7% in AF and 21% in assisted-AF conditions. CO was 7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in baseline, 6.2+/-0.5 l min(-1) in AF and 6.7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in assisted-AF status (p<0.01). Histology of the atrium in the chronic group showed chronic tissue inflammation and no sign of tissue necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: The artificial muscle restores the AK and improves CO. In patients with end-stage cardiac failure and permanent AF, if implanted on both sides, it would improve CO and possibly delay or even avoid complex surgical treatment such as VAD implantation.

Role of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling in the neuroendocrine control of human reproduction.

Fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling is critical for a broad range of developmental processes. In 2003, Fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1) was discovered as a novel locus causing both forms of isolate GnRH Deficiency, Kallmann syndrome [KS with anosmia] and normosmic idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism [nIHH] eventually accounting for approximately 10% of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) deficiency cases. Such cases are characterized by a broad spectrum of reproductive phenotypes from severe congenital forms of GnRH deficiency to reversal of HH. Additionally, the variable expressivity of both reproductive and non-reproductive phenotypes among patients and family members harboring the identical FGFR1 mutations has pointed to a more complex, oligogenic model for GnRH deficiency. Further, reversal of HH in patients carrying FGFR1 mutations suggests potential gene-environment interactions in human GnRH deficiency disorders.

Histopathology of Leishmania major infection: revisiting L. major histopathology in the ear dermis infection model

We describe the relationship between lesion outcome and histopathological hallmarks in susceptible (BALB/c) and resistant (C57BL/6 and IL-4-deficient BALB/c) mouse strains over the course of a 12-week-infection with Leishmania major in the ear. The infiltration of mononuclear cells and polymorphonuclear cells occurred within 6 h and mononuclear cells predominated one week post-infection. Permissive intracellular growth of the pathogen was associated with non-healing lesions. In contrast, tissue damage and clearance of the parasite was observed in healing lesions and was associated with inducible nitric oxide synthase expression. The identification of the structural components of tissue reaction to the parasite in this study furthers our understanding of subjacent immune effector mechanisms.