Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II): Predictors of physician confidence to diagnose pneumonia and determine illness severity in ventilated patients

The manner in which elements of clinical history, physical examination and investigations influence subjectively assessed illness severity and outcome prediction is poorly understood. This study investigates the relationship between clinician and objectively assessed illness severity and the factors influencing clinician's diagnostic confidence and illness severity rating for ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective study of fourteen ICUs included all ventilated admissions with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia. Data collection included pneumonia type - community-acquired (CAP), hospital-acquired (HAP) and ventilator-associated (VAP), clinician determined illness severity (CDIS), diagnostic methods, clinical diagnostic confidence (CDC), microbiological isolates and antibiotic use. For 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% CAP, 24% HAP, 28% VAP), CDC was greatest for CAP (64% CAP, 50% HAP and 49% VAP, P < 0.01) or when pneumonia was considered life-threatening (84% high CDC, 13% medium CDC and 3% low CDC, P < 0.001). Life-threatening pneumonia was predicted by worsening gas exchange (OR 4.8, CI 95% 2.3-10.2, P < 0.001), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.0, CI 95% 1.2-3.2, P < 0.01) and the Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score (OR 1.1, CI 95% 1.1-1.2, P < 0.001). Diagnostic confidence increased with CDIS (OR 163, CI 95% 8.4-31.4, P < 0.001), definite pathogen isolation (OR 3.3, CI 95% 2.0-5.6) and clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.1, CI 95% 1.3-3.3, P = 0.001). Although the CDIS, SOFA Score and the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS II) were all associated with mortality, the SAPS II Score was the best predictor of mortality (P = 0.02). Diagnostic confidence for pneumonia is moderate but increases with more classical presentations. A small set of clinical parameters influence subjective assessment. Objective assessment using SAPS II Scoring is a better predictor of mortality.

Vaccine trial as “probe” to define the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia disease [Comment]

In today's Lancet, Felicity Cutts and colleagues present their findings on the randomised double-blind placebo controlled trial on the efficacy of a nine-valent pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine (9PCV) against radiologically confirmed pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease in children immunised before 12 months of age in The Gambia. The study site is a rural African setting with high child-mortality, a low prevalence of HIV-1 infection in pregnant mothers, and with endemic malaria. The authors report a vaccine efficacy of 37% (95% CI 27–45%) against first-episodes of radiological pneumonia in a per-protocol analysis. Intention-to-treat analysis showed similar results. The investigators also found that the vaccine could significantly reduce the incidence of vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease by 77%, by 50% for all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease, by 15% for all-cause health-facility admissions, and by 16% for overall child mortality.

The effect of a reduction in heroin supply on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia

Objective: To examine the impact of a sudden and dramatic decrease in heroin availability, concomitant with increases in price and decreases in purity, on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia. Design and setting: Time-series analysis was conducted where possible on data on overdoses collected from NSW hospital emergency departments, the NSW Ambulance Service, and all suspected drug-related deaths referred to the NSW Coroner's court. Main outcome measures: The number of suspected drug-related deaths where heroin and other drugs were mentioned; ambulance calls to suspected opioid overdoses; and emergency department admissions for overdoses on heroin and other drugs. Results: Both fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses decreased significantly after heroin supply reduced; the reductions were greater among younger age groups than older age groups. There were no clear increases in non-fatal overdoses with cocaine, methamphetamines or benzodiazepines recorded at hospital emergency departments after the reduction in heroin supply. Data on drug-related deaths suggested that heroin use was the predominant driver of drug-related deaths in NSW, and that when heroin supply was reduced overdose deaths were more likely to involve a wider combination of drugs. Conclusion: A reduction in heroin supply reduced heroin-related deaths, and did not result in a concomitant increase, to the same degree, in deaths relating to other drugs. Younger people were more affected by the reduction in supply.

Realtime telemedicine for paediatric otolaryngology pre-admission screening

We conducted a feasibility study to examine whether a paediatric patient at a regional hospital could be assessed by an ear, nose and throat (ENT) specialist via videoconference, therefore saving at least one journey to the tertiary hospital for a pre-admission appointment. A video-otoscope was used with standard videoconference equipment, and realtime images were transmitted at a bandwidth of 384 kbit/s. In all, 13 telepaediatric ENT clinics were conducted between November 2003 and April 2005, and 98 consultations were facilitated for 64 patients. The main reasons for referral were recurrent tonsillitis (25%) and obstructive sleep apnoea (23%). Of the 64 patients examined by telemedicine, 42 (66%) were recommended for surgery and placed on the surgical waiting list. About 12 patients (19%) required travel to the tertiary centre for further investigations and tests not available locally, while four patients (6%) were reviewed via videoconference during a scheduled clinic. Six patients (9%) required no further follow-up after their initial telepaedliatric consultation. Videoconferencing is an effective method of assessing ENT conditions of paediatric patients and for pre-screening potential surgical admissions to a tertiary hospital. Careful consideration of a number of economic and logistical factors needs to be made before large investments are made to expand the service.

Australia's National Mental Health Strategy and deinstitutionalization: some empirical results

Objective: To determine the role of the National Mental Health Strategy in the deinstitutionalization of patients in psychiatric hospitals in Queensland. Method: Regression analysis (using the maximum likelihood method) has been applied to relevant time-series datasets on public psychiatric institutions in Queensland. In particular, data on both patients and admissions per 10 000 population are analysed in detail from 1953-54 to the present, although data are presented from 1883-84. Results: These Queensland data indicate that deinstitutionalization was a continuing process from the 1950s to the present. However, it is clear that the experience varied from period to period. For example, the fastest change (in both patients and admissions) took place in the period 1953-54 to 1973-74, followed by the period 1974-75 to 1984-85. Conclusions: In large part, the two policies associated with deinstitutionalization, namely a discharge policy ('opening the back door') and an admission policy ('closing the front door') had been implemented before the advent of the National Mental Health Strategy in January 1993. Deinstitutionalization was most rapid in the 30-year period to the early 1980s: the process continued in the 1990s, but at a much slower rate. Deinstitutionalization was, in large part, over before the Strategy was developed and implemented.

Length of Stay, Discharge Destination, and Functional Improvement: Utility of the Australian National Subacute and Nonacute Patient Casemix Classification

Background and Purpose - Although implemented in 1998, no research has examined how well the Australian National Subacute and Nonacute Patient (AN-SNAP) Casemix Classification predicts length of stay (LOS), discharge destination, and functional improvement in public hospital stroke rehabilitation units in Australia. Methods - 406 consecutive admissions to 3 stroke rehabilitation units in Queensland, Australia were studied. Sociode-mographic, clinical, and functional data were collected. General linear modeling and logistic regression were used to assess the ability of AN-SNAP to predict outcomes. Results - AN-SNAP significantly predicted each outcome. There were clear relationships between the outcomes of longer LOS, poorer functional improvement and discharge into care, and the AN-SNAP classes that reflected poorer functional ability and older age. Other predictors included living situation, acute LOS, comorbidity, and stroke type. Conclusions - AN-SNAP is a consistent predictor of LOS, functional change and discharge destination, and has utility in assisting clinicians to set rehabilitation goals and plan discharge.

The costs of caring for patients in a tertiary referral Australian intensive care unit

We determined the direct cost of an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed in a tertiary referral Australian ICU and the cost drivers thereof, by retrospectively analysing a number of prospectively designed Hospital- and Unit-specific electronic databases. The study period was a financial year, from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2003. There were 1615 patients occupying 5692 fractional occupied bed days at a total cost of A$15,915,964, with an average length of stay of 3.69 days (range 0.5-77, median 1.06, interquartile range 2.33). The main cost driver not incorporated into this analysis was blood products (paid for centrally). The average costs of an ICU day and total stay per patient were A$2670 and A$9852 respectively. Staff-related charges were 68.76%, with consumables related expenditure making up 19.65%, clinical support services 9.55% and capital equipment 2.04%. Overtime charges and nursing agency staff were 19.4% of staff-related charges (2.9% for agency staff), 3.9% lower than expenditure associated with full-time employment charges, such as pension and leave. The emergency nature of ICU means it is difficult to accurately set a nursing establishment to cater for all admissions and therefore it is hard to decide what is an acceptable percentage difference between agency/overtime costs compared with the costs associated with full-time staff appointments. Consumable expenditure is likely to increase the most with new innovation and therapies. Using protocol driven practices may tighten and control costs incurred in ICU.

Attaching unit costs to Australia's National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing

Background: In mental health, policy-makers and planners are increasingly being asked to set priorities. This means that health economists, health services researchers and clinical investigators are being called upon to work together to define and measure costs. Typically, these researchers take available service utilisation data and convert them to costs, using a range of assumptions. There are inefficiencies, as individual groups of researchers frequently repeat essentially similar exercises in achieving this end. There are clearly areas where shared or common investment in the development of statistical software syntax, analytical frameworks and other resources could maximise the use of data. Aims of the Study: This paper reports on an Australian project in which we calculated unit costs for mental health admissions and community encounters. In reporting on these calculations, our purpose is to make the data and the resources associated with them publicly available to researchers interested in conducting economic analyses, and allow them to copy, distribute and modify them, providing that all copies and modifications are available under the same terms and conditions (i.e., in accordance with the 'Copyleft' principle), Within this context, the objectives of the paper are to: (i) introduce the 'Copyleft' principle; (ii) provide an overview of the methodology we employed to derive the unit costs; (iii) present the unit costs themselves; and (iv) examine the total and mean costs for a range of single and comorbid conditions, as an example of the kind of question that the unit cost data can be used to address. Method: We took relevant data from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB), and developed a set of unit costs for inpatient and community encounters. We then examined total and mean costs for a range of single and comorbid conditions. Results: We present the unit costs for mental health admissions and mental health community contacts. Our example, which explored the association between comorbidity and total and mean costs, suggested that comorbidly occurring conditions cost more than conditions which occur on their own. Discussion: Our unit costs, and the materials associated with them, have been published in a freely available form governed by a provision termed 'Copyleft'. They provide a valuable resource for researchers wanting to explore economic questions in mental health. Implications for Health Policies: Our unit costs provide an important resource to inform economic debate in mental health in Australia, particularly in the area of priority-setting. In the past, such debate has largely, been based on opinion. Our unit costs provide the underpinning to strengthen the evidence-base of this debate. Implications for Further Research: We would encourage other Australian researchers to make use of our unit costs in order to foster comparability across studies. We would also encourage Australian and international researchers to adopt the 'Copyleft' principle in equivalent circumstances. Furthermore, we suggest that the provision of 'Copyleft'-contingent funding to support the development of enabling resources for researchers should be considered in the planning of future large-scale collaborative survey work, both in Australia and overseas.

Carvedilol reduces the costs of medical care in severe heart failure: An economic analysis of the COPERNICUS study applied to the United Kingdom

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effects of carvedilol on the costs related to the treatment of severe chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Costs for the treatment for heart failure within the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK) were applied to resource utilisation data prospectively collected in all patients randomized into the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) Study. Unit-specific, per them (hospital bed day) costs were used to calculate expenditures due to hospitalizations. We also included costs of carvedilol treatment, general practitioner surgery/office visits, hospital out-patient clinic visits and nursing home care based on estimates derived from validated patterns of clinical practice in the UK. Results: The estimated cost of carvedilol therapy and related ambulatory care for the 1156 patients assigned to active treatment was 530,771 pound (44.89 pound per patient/month of follow-up). However, patients assigned to carvedilol were hospitalised less often and accumulated fewer and less expensive days of admission. Consequently, the total estimated cost of hospital care was 3.49 pound million in the carvedilol group compared with 4.24 pound million for the 1133 patients in the placebo arm. The cost of post-discharge care was also less in the carvedilol than in the placebo group (479,200 pound vs. 548,300) pound. Overall, the cost per patient treated in the carvedilol group was 3948 pound compared to 4279 pound in the placebo group. This equated to a cost of 385.98 pound vs. 434.18 pound, respectively, per patient/month of follow-up: an 11.1% reduction in health care costs in favour of carvedilol. Conclusions: These findings suggest that not only can carvedilol treatment increase survival and reduce hospital admissions in patients with severe CHF but that it can also cut costs in the process.

Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, Australia

Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) is common and increasing worldwide. A retrospective review was undertaken to quantify the number of cases, their place of acquisition, and the proportions caused by methicillin-resistant.S. aureus (MRSA) in 17 hospitals in Australia. Of 3,192 episodes, 1,571 (49%) were community onset. MRSA caused 40% of hospital-onset episodes and 12% of community-onset episodes. The median rate of SAB was 1.48/1,000 admissions (range 0.61-3.24; median rate for hospital-onset SAB was 0.7/1,000 and for community onset 0.8/1,000 admissions). Using these rates, we estimate that approximate to 6,900 episodes of SAB occur annually in Australia (35/100,000 population). SAB is common, and a substantial proportion of cases may be preventable. The epidemiology is evolving, with > 10% of community-onset SAB now caused by MRSA. This is an emerging infectious disease concern and is likely to impact on empiric antimicrobial drug prescribing in suspected cases of SAB.

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong

Background: Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. Aim: To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Methods: Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of US$1.3 million for a life lost. Results: In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was US$532 million for active smoking and US$156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to US$9.4 billion. Conclusion: The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Do community treatment orders for mental illness reduce readmission to hospital? - An epidemiological study

Background It has been suggested that community treatment orders (CTOs) will prevent readmission to hospital, but controlled studies have been inconclusive. We aimed to test the hypothesis that hospital discharges made subject to CTOs are associated with a reduced risk of readmission. The use of such a measure is likely to change after its introduction as clinicians acquire familiarity with it, and we also tested the hypothesis that the characteristics of patients subject to CTOs changed over time in the first decade of their use in Victoria, Australia. Method A database from Victoria, Australia (total population 4.8 million) was used. Cox proportional hazard models compared the hazard ratios of readmission to hospital before the end of the study period (1992-2000) for 16,216 discharges subject to a CTO and 112,211 not subject to a CTO. Results Community treatment orders used on discharge from a first admission to hospital were associated with a higher risk of readmission, but CTOs following subsequent admissions were associated with lower readmission risk. The risk also declined over the study period. Conclusions The effect of using a CTO depends on the patient's history. At a population level their introduction may not reduce readmission to hospital. Their impact may change over time.

Pattern and correlates of inpatient admission during the initial acute phase of first-episode psychosis

Objectives: The first aim of this study was to examine the rate, pattern and correlates of inpatient admission during the first 3 months of treatment for first-episode psychosis (FEP). The second aim was to determine whether the pattern of inpatient admission during this period was associated with remission of psychotic symptoms or inpatient service use at 15-month follow-up. Method: One hundred and four consecutive patients with FEP at a specialist treatment service were approached to participate in a follow-up study. Patients were grouped on the basis of the pattern of inpatient admission (none, one, or multiple) during the first 3 months of treatment. Clinical ratings at baseline and 3-month follow-up, and ratings of remission of psychotic symptoms at 3 and 15-month follow-up, were available for two-thirds of the patients. Inpatient data for the 15-month follow-up period were derived from an electronic database for most patients (n = 98). Results: Eighty (76.9%) of the 104 patients were admitted to an inpatient unit during the first 3 months of treatment. Fifty-nine (56.7%) patients had a single admission and 21 (20.2%) had multiple admissions. At baseline, inpatient admission was associated with a diagnosis of affective psychosis and more severe behavioural and functional disturbance but not positive psychotic symptoms. Multiple admissions were associated with risks to self or others at baseline and 3-month follow-up, and lack of remission of positive symptoms at 3 and 15-month follow-up. There was no association between the pattern of inpatient admission during the initial 3-month period and inpatient service use during the following 12-month period. Conclusions: The substantial proportion of young patients with FEP admitted to hospital emphasizes the need for youth-friendly treatment environments and practices. Although patients with multiple admissions during the initial treatment period are less likely to achieve remission, these patients are no more likely to establish a pattern of revolving-door hospitalizations compared with other patients.