Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

Glacial-interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: a comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquid–vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O (‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glacial–interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12–9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquid–vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion δ18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion δ18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glacial–interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4–5 °C. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Phylogeny of the Neotropical genus Acestrorhynchus (Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on nuclear and mitochondrial gene sequences and morphology: A total evidence approach

Acestrorhynchus is the sole genus of the family Acestrorhynchidae which includes 14 species currently recognized as valid. Species of Acestrorhynchus comprise small-to-medium sized piscivorous fishes and have been traditionally grouped on the basis of well-defined color patterns. A recent phylogeny, based on morphological characters, could not resolve the phylogenetic affinities of A. heterolepis and the relationships among the species of the clade formed by A. abbreviatus, A. altus, A. falcatus, A. lacustris, and A. pantaneiro. The simultaneous analysis of two mitochondrial genes (16S and ATP synthase subunits 6 and 8) and one nuclear intron (S7) was able to resolve the latter clade, but the position of A. heterolepis remained unresolved. The combination of the molecular and morphological data sets in a total evidence analysis resulted in a well-resolved hypothesis regarding the phylogenetic relationships of Acestrorhynchus species. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TL dosimetry of natural quartz sensitized by heat-treatment and high dose irradiation

The aim of this paper is to report the sensitization of the TL peak appearing at 270 degrees C in the glow curve of natural quartz by using the combined effect of heat-treatments and irradiation with high gamma doses. For this, thirty discs with 6 x 1 mm(2) were prepared from plates parallell to a rhombolledral crystal face. The specimens were separated into four lots according to its TL read out between 160 and 320 degrees C. One lot was submitted to gamma doses of Co-60 radiation starting at 2 kGy and going up until a cumulative dose of 25 kGy. The other three lots were initially heal-treated at 500, 800 and 1000 degrees C and then irradiated with a single dose of 25kGy. The TL response of each lot was determined as a function of test-doses ranging from 0.1 to 30 mGy. As a result, it was observed that heat-treatments themselves did not produce the strong peak at 270 degrees C that was observed after the administration of high gamma doses. This peak is associated with the optical absorption band appearing at 470 rim which is due to the formation of [AlO4]degrees acting as electron-hole recombination centers. The formation of the 270 degrees C peak was preliminary analyzed in relation to aluminum- and oxygen-vacancy-related centers found in crystalline quartz. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leishmanicidal Activity and Immobilization of dermaseptin 01 antimicrobial peptides in ultrathin films for nanomedicine applications

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are essential for the innate immune system of eukaryotes, imparting protection against pathogens and their proliferation in host organisms. The recent interest in AMPs as active materials in bionanostructures is due to the properties shown by these biological molecules, such as the presence of an alpha-helix structure and distribution of positive charges along the chain. In this study the antimicrobial peptide dermaseptin 01 (DS 01), from the skin secretion of Phyllomedusa hypochondrialis frogs was immobilized in nanostructured layered films in conjunction with nickel tetrasulfonated phthalocyanines. The leishmanicidal activity of DS 01 was confirmed using kinetic essays, in which DS 01 promoted death of all metacyclic promastigote cells in 45 minutes. Surprisingly, the immobilized DS 01 molecules displayed electroactivity, as revealed by electrochemical experiments, in which an oxidation peak at about 0.61 V was observed for a DS 01 monolayer deposited on top of a conductive electrode. Such electroactivity was used to investigate the sensing abilities of the nanostructured films toward Leishmania. We observed an increase in the oxidation current as a function of number of Leishmania cells in the electrolytic solution at concentrations down to 10(3) cells/mL. The latter is indicative that the use of AMPs immobilized in electroactive nanostructured films may be of interest for applications in the pharmaceutical industry and diagnosis.

EVALUATION OF METAL TOXICITY BY A MODIFIED METHOD BASED ON THE FUNGUS GERRONEMA VIRIDILUCENS BIOLUMINESCENCE IN AGAR MEDIUM

Metal cation toxicity to basidiomycete fungi is poorly understood, despite its well-known importance in terrestrial ecosystems. Moreover, there is no reported methodology for the routine evaluation of metal toxicity to basidiomycetes. In the present study, we describe the development of a procedure to assess the acute toxicity of metal cations (Na(+), K(+), Li(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Co(2+), Zn(2+), Ni(2+), Mn(2+), Cd(2+), and Cu(2+)) to the bioluminescent basidiomycete fungus Gerronema viridilucens. The method is based on the decrease in the intensity of bioluminescence resulting from injuries sustained by the fungus mycelium exposed to either essential or nonessential metal toxicants. The assay described herein enables LIS to propose a metal toxicity series to Gerronenia viridilucens based on data obtained from the bioluminescence intensity (median effective concentration [EC50] values) versus metal concentration: Cd(2+) > Cu(2+) > Mn(2+) approximate to Ni(2+) approximate to Co(2+) > Zn(2+) > Mg(2+) > Li(+) > K(+) approximate to Na(+) > Ca(2+), and to shed some li-ht on the mechanism of toxic action of metal cations to basidiomycete fungi. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2010;29:320-326. (C) 2009 SETAC