Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain. Drawing on the evidence in Alesina and Ardagna (2010), we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and/or successful in stabilizing government debt.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, C-reactive protein, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes.

BACKGROUND: The correlation between noninvasive markers with endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity and fecal calprotectin (FC), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, platelets, blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). METHODS: UC patients undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Samples from feces and blood were analyzed in UC patients and controls. RESULTS: We enrolled 228 UC patients and 52 healthy controls. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with FC (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), platelets (r = 0.488), blood leukocytes (r = 0.401), and hemoglobin (r = -0.388). FC was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 16 [10-30] μg/g; grade 1, 35 [25-48] μg/g; grade 2, 102 [44-159] μg/g; grade 3, 235 [176-319] μg/g; grade 4, 611 [406-868] μg/g; P < 0.001 for discriminating the different grades). FC with a cutoff of 57 μg/g had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 90% to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2). CONCLUSIONS: FC correlated better with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.

The twist, writhe and overall shape of supercoiled DNA change during counterion-induced transition from a loosely to a tightly interwound superhelix. Possible implications for DNA structure in vivo.

A cryo-electron microscopy study of supercoiled DNA molecules freely suspended in cryo-vitrified buffer was combined with Monte Carlo simulations and gel electrophoretic analysis to investigate the role of intersegmental electrostatic repulsion in determining the shape of supercoiled DNA molecules. It is demonstrated here that a decrease of DNA-DNA repulsion by increasing concentrations of counterions causes a higher fraction of the linking number deficit to be partitioned into writhe. When counterions reach concentrations likely to be present under in vivo conditions, naturally supercoiled plasmids adopt a tightly interwound conformation. In these tightly supercoiled DNA molecules the opposing segments of interwound superhelix seem to directly contact each other. This form of supercoiling, where two DNA helices interact laterally, may represent an important functional state of DNA. In the particular case of supercoiled minicircles (178 bp) the delta Lk = -2 topoisomers undergo a sharp structural transition from almost planar circles in low salt buffers to strongly writhed "figure-eight" conformations in buffers containing neutralizing concentrations of counterions. Possible implications of this observed structural transition in DNA are discussed.

Le Christ de Calvin

A l'occasion du 500e anniversaire de la naissance de Calvin, cette édition fait le point sur la christologie et la théologie du réformateur à la lumière des différences confessionnelles entre catholicisme et Réforme.

Reversibility of muscle and heart lesions in chronic Trypanosoma cruzi infected mice after late trypanomicidal treatment

The effect of trypanomicidal treatment upon established histopathological Trypanosoma cruzi induced lesions was studied in Swiss mice. The animals were inoculated with 50 trypomastigotes and infection was allowed to progress without treatment for 99 days. After this period, the animals were divided in three groups, treated for 30 days with either placebo, benznidazole (200 mg/kg/day) or nifurtimox (100 mg/kg/day). These treatments induced 94 and 100 (per cent) cure rates respectively as detected by xenodiagnosis and reduction of antibody levels. Autopsies and histopathological studies of heart, urinary bladderand skeletal muscle performed on day 312 after infection showed almost complete healing without residual lesions. As long periods were allowed between infection, treatment and autopsy, the results indicate that tissue lesions depend, up to advances stages, on the continuous presence of the parasite.

Prophytaxie de l'ostéoporose cortisonique: qui, quand et quoi [Prevention of cortisone-induced osteoporosis: who, when and what?]

Glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis is a known phenomenon with already an increased fracture risk at 2.5 mg of prednisone daily over 3 months. This risk appears to be independent of bone densitometry results, in contradiction with published guidelines. With the creation of our Department of Musculoskeletal Medicine, we wanted to edict clear recommendations for the prevention of steroid-induced osteoporosis. In addition to the standard general measures to prevent osteoporosis and calcium and vitamin D supplementation, we advocate the use of a specific treatment for osteoporosis in all cases when the duration of corticosteroid therapy is not strictly limited and shorter than 3 months. Bisphosphonates are the treatment of choice, while the analogue of parathyroid hormone remains an alternative in cases with a very high fracture risk.

Reverse-transcriptase-associated RNaseH activity mediates template switching during reverse transcription in vitro.

During the first steps of reverse transcription of the retroviral genome, sequences present at the extremities of the RNA are used to reconstitute a host cell PolII promoter. The assembly of the promoter occurs by template switching, which takes advantage of a direct repeat at the ends of the RNA molecule. These steps are catalysed by the viral reverse transcriptase, which carries an intrinsic RNaseH activity that is probably also involved therein. To study the role of the RNaseH activity in this first template-switching event, an in vitro system has been developed based on primer extensions of synthetic RNAs. When an RNA was reverse transcribed with wild-type reverse transcriptase in the presence of a second RNA the 3' part of which was repeated at the 5' end of the first one, extension products could be observed corresponding to a chimeric cDNA comprising both RNA species. This template switching could not be detected when a mutant reverse transcriptase lacking the RNaseH activity was used. The results show that the RNaseH activity is needed to remove the 5' RNA sequences from the cDNA:RNA hybrid thereby enabling its translocation to another RNA containing an appropriate complementary target sequence.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Parent-child agreement and prevalence estimates of diagnoses in childhood: direct interview versus family history method.

Diagnostic information on children is typically elicited from both children and their parents. The aims of the present paper were to: (1) compare prevalence estimates according to maternal reports, paternal reports and direct interviews of children [major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety and attention-deficit and disruptive behavioural disorders]; (2) assess mother-child, father-child and inter-parental agreement for these disorders; (3) determine the association between several child, parent and familial characteristics and the degree of diagnostic agreement or the likelihood of parental reporting; (4) determine the predictive validity of diagnostic information provided by parents and children. Analyses were based on 235 mother-offspring, 189 father-offspring and 128 mother-father pairs. Diagnostic assessment included the Kiddie-schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (K-SADS) (offspring) and the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) (parents and offspring at follow-up) interviews. Parental reports were collected using the Family History - Research Diagnostic Criteria (FH-RDC). Analyses revealed: (1) prevalence estimates for internalizing disorders were generally lower according to parental information than according to the K-SADS; (2) mother-child and father-child agreement was poor and within similar ranges; (3) parents with a history of MDD or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) reported these disorders in their children more frequently; (4) in a sub-sample followed-up into adulthood, diagnoses of MDD, separation anxiety and conduct disorder at baseline concurred with the corresponding lifetime diagnosis at age 19 according to the child rather than according to the parents. In conclusion, our findings support large discrepancies of diagnostic information provided by parents and children with generally lower reporting of internalizing disorders by parents, and differential reporting of depression and ADHD by parental disease status. Follow-up data also supports the validity of information provided by adolescent offspring.

Inventer et réinventer la Suisse : les expositions nationales de 1939, 1964 et 2002

Officiellement, les expositions nationales sont définies comme des condensés de société, sortes de miroirs tendus aux citoyens afin qu'ils en retirent une meilleure connaissance de leur pays. En interrogeant les éléments qui autorisent tour à tour (en 1939, 1964 puis 2002) leurs organisateurs à justifier la nécessité d'une rencontre entre les membres de la collectivité nationale, cet article propose d'aborder les expositions comme autant de performances successives mettant en scène la nation. Ce recours à la notion de performance permet de mettre en parallèle la succession des expositions et le processus de transformation d'identifiants nationaux en Suisse.

Uranium reserve, nuclear fuel cycle delusion, CO2 emission from the sea, and electricity supply: reflections after the fuel meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power units

The Great Tohoku-Kanto earthquake and resulting tsunami has brought considerable attention to the issue of the construction of new power plants. We argue in this paper, nuclear power is not a sustainable solution to energy problems. First, we explore the stock of uranium-235 and the different schemes developed by the nuclear power industry to exploit this resource. Second, we show that these methods, fast breeder and MOX fuel reactors, are not feasible. Third, we show that the argument that nuclear energy can be used to reduce CO2 emissions is false: the emissions from the increased water evaporation from nuclear power generation must be accounted for. In the case of Japan, water from nuclear power plants is drained into the surrounding sea, raising the water temperature which has an adverse affect on the immediate ecosystem, as well as increasing CO2 emissions from increased water evaporation from the sea. Next, a short exercise is used to show that nuclear power is not even needed to meet consumer demand in Japan. Such an exercise should be performed for any country considering the construction of additional nuclear power plants. Lastly, the paper is concluded with a discussion of the implications of our findings.

Expansion of intraocular gas bubbles due to altitude: do meteorological factors play a role?

BACKGROUND: Intraocular gas bubbles expand as patients move up to higher altitude. This may cause an acute intraocular pressure (IOP) rise with associated vascular obstructions and visual loss. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two pseudophakic patients underwent a pars plana vitrectomy and 23% SF6 gas tamponade for a pseudophakic retinal detachment. During the immediate post-operative phase, the patients travelled daily up to their domicile, which was situated approximately 600 m higher than the level where they had been operated on. These travels were always without any pain or visual loss. However 1 week after surgery both patients developed severe ocular pain, and one patient had complete temporary loss of vision after ascending to altitude levels, which had previously presented no problem. Both episodes occurred in parallel with a change in barometric pressure. RESULTS: Treatment with acetazolamide reduced the increased IOP to normal levels, and visual acuity recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Although the post-operative size of an intraocular gas bubble decreases progressively over time, problems with bubble expansion may still occur even at a late stage if meteorological factors, that may increase the bubble size, change.

Avaluació i impacte de les respostes penals al fenomen de la violència de gènere a Catalunya (2007-2008)

La recerca vol fer una aproximació empírica a les respostes que des del sistema penal a Catalunya s’ofereix al fenomen de la violència de gènere. S’han explorat de forma transversal les diverses fonts estadístiques quantitatives dels diferents serveis, des del Consejo del Poder Judicial, el Departament d’Interior i el Departament de Justícia, fins a l’ Institut Català de les Dones en el període 2007-2008. Tanmateix s’ha elaborat una base de dades jurisprudencial amb totes les sentències dictades per les Audiències Provincials a Catalunya durant aquest període. L’avaluació qualitativa es realitza a partir de l’anàlisi dels programes d’intervenció existents, un focus group amb els operadors jurídics de la xarxa i l’anàlisi i buidat jurisprudencial.