Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

HapMap tag-SNP analysis confirms a role for COMT in schizophrenia risk and reveals a novel association

Catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) encodes an enzyme involved in the metabolism of dopamine and maps to a commonly deleted region that increases schizophrenia risk. A non-synonymous polymorphism (rs4680) in COMT has been previously found to be associated with schizophrenia and results in altered activity levels of COMT. Using a haplotype block-based gene-tagging approach we conducted an association study of seven COMT single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 160 patients with a DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia and 250 controls in an Australian population. Two polymorphisms including rs4680 and rs165774 were found to be significantly associated with schizophrenia. The rs4680 results in a Val/Met substitution but the strongest association was shown by the novel SNP, rs165774, which may still be functional even though it is located in intron five. Individuals with schizophrenia were more than twice as likely to carry the GG genotype compared to the AA genotype for both the rs165774 and rs4680 SNPs. This association was slightly improved when males were analysed separately possibly indicating a degree of sexual dimorphism. Our results confirm that COMT is a good candidate for schizophrenia risk, by replicating the association with rs4680 and identifying a novel SNP association.

MobileMums: A randomized controlled trial of an SMS-based physical activity intervention

Background Postnatal women (<12 months postpartum) are at increased risk of physical inactivity. Purpose To evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of a theory-based physical activity (PA) intervention delivered to postnatal women primarily via mobile telephone short message service (SMS). Methods Eighty-eight women were randomized to the intervention (n=45) or minimal contact control (n=43) condition. The 12-week intervention consisted of a face-to-face PA goal-setting consultation, a goal-setting magnet, three to five personally tailored SMS/week and a nominated support person who received two SMS per week. SMS content targeted constructs of social cognitive theory. Frequency (days/week) and duration (min/week) of PA participation and walking for exercise were assessed via self-report at baseline, 6 and 13 weeks. Results Intervention participants increased PA frequency by 1.82 days/week (SE±0.18) by 13 weeks (F(2,85)=4.46, p=0.038) and walking for exercise frequency by 1.08 days/ week (SE±0.24) by 13 weeks (F(2,85)=5.38, p=0.02). Positive trends were observed for duration (min/week) of PA and walking for exercise. Conclusions Intervention exposure resulted in increased frequency of PA and walking for exercise in postnatal women.

Queers doing theory : Australian queer student activist print media’s representations of capitalism

Queer university student print media often represents capitalism in a framework which could be classified as Marxism. However, at the same time, queer student media extensively publishes ideas which could be classified as academic queer theory. This chapter features analysis of these representations from the 2003, 2004 and 2006 editions of national queer student publication, Querelle, and from a sample of queer student media from four Australian universities. The perspectives of Marxism and academic queer theory are often argued to be contradictory (See for example, Hennessy 1994; Morton 1996b; Kirsch 2007), and thus the students’ application of these theories in tandem could be considered problematic. McKee asks ‘Who gets to be an intellectual?’ (2004) and suggests that the intellectualising undertaken by mainstream and alternative cultural creators is just as valid as that undertaken by university academics. He also raises concerns that the concept of theory is seen to be kept separate from everyday culture (McKee 2002). This chapter argues that in the construction and representation of their politics in this manner the queer student activists are creating their own version of queer theory. This analysis of queer student media contributes to research on queer communities and queer theory, demonstrating how one specific cultural subset theorises queerness and queer politics, thereby contributing to the genealogy of queer.

The Ashgate Research Companion to Queer Theory edited by Giffney and O'Rourke [Review]

The Ashgate Research Companion to Queer Theory is a solid collection providing an overview of the past, present and future applications of queer theory. The Companion confidently lives up to its name as a research companion offering useful theories and methodologies for the reader to utilise queer theory in their own work.

Parents’ risky choices around the IB Diploma

In recent years there has been a rapid growth in the International Baccalaureate Diploma(IBD), a secondary curriculum administered by the International Baccalaureate Organisation(IBO), as an alternative to the local curriculum in Australian schools in some schools. This growth is indicative of an increasing demand from Australian families for new educational structures, practices and processes. With more curriculum options and pathways such as the IBD available in the secondary education system, parents are faced with a more complex high stakes decision when it comes to choosing the optimal education path for their offspring, one which requires a careful assessment of potential outcomes and risks. This paper reports on the responses of 184 parents to an online survey conducted in 26 Australian schools that offer the IBD as a curricular alternative. It examines which parents either chose, or chose not to, enrol their children in the program, why, and what risks they perceived to be associated with that choice. The paper will compare the choice behaviour of the two groups of parents from a sociological perspective, framing the enquiry with reference to globalisation and neo-liberal education policy and its effect on parental choice of schooling. This paper will make evident how parental choice of educational alternatives has become a more complicated process for Australian families.

Essays on irrigation development, farm production and unaccounted costs : theory and empirical evidence

A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

Mesenchymal stem cells in osteoarthritis therapy : current status of theory, technology, and applications

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic, non-inflammatory type of arthritis, which usually affects the movable and weight bearing joints of the body. It is the most common joint disease in human beings and common in elderly people. Till date, there are no safe and effective diseases modifying OA drugs (DMOADs) to treat the millions of patients suffering from this serious and debilitating disease. However, recent studies provide strong evidence for the use of mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy in curing cartilage related disorders. Due to their natural differentiation properties, MSCs can serve as vehicles for the delivery of effective, targeted treatment to damaged cartilage in OA disease. In vitro, MSCs can readily be tailored with transgenes with anti-catabolic or pro-anabolic effects to create cartilage-friendly therapeutic vehicles. On the other hand, tissue engineering constructs with scaffolds and biomaterials holds promising biological cartilage therapy. Many of these strategies have been validated in a wide range of in vitro and in vivo studies assessing treatment feasibility or efficacy. In this review, we provide an outline of the rationale and status of stem-cell-based treatments for OA cartilage, and we discuss prospects for clinical implementation and the factors crucial for maintaining the drive towards this goal.

Predicting mothers’ decisions to introduce complementary feeding at 6 months : an investigation using an extended theory of planned behaviour

In Australia and other developed countries there is poor adherence to guidelines recommending the introduction of complementary feeding to infants at 6 months of age. We aimed to investigate, via adopting a theory of planned behaviour framework and incorporating additional normative and demographic influences, mothers’ complementary feeding intentions and behaviour. Participants were 375 primiparas who completed an initial questionnaire (infant age 13±3weeks) that assessed the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as group norm and additional maternal and infant variables of mothers’ age, education level, weight status perception, current maternal feeding practices, and infant birth weight. Approximately, 3 months after completion of the main questionnaire, mothers completed a follow-up questionnaire that assessed the age in months at which the infant was first introduced to solids. The theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude and subjective norm, along with group norm, predicted intentions, with intention, mothers’ age (older more likely), and weight status perception (overweight less likely) predicting behaviour. Overall, the results highlight the importance of attitudes, normative influences, and individual characteristics in complementary feeding decision-making which should be considered when designing interventions aimed at improving adherence to current maternal feeding guidelines.

Identifying relationship between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes using probability-based risk approach

Road accidents are of great concerns for road and transport departments around world, which cause tremendous loss and dangers for public. Reducing accident rates and crash severity are imperative goals that governments, road and transport authorities, and researchers are aimed to achieve. In Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$ 15 billion annually. Five people are killed, and 550 are injured every day. Each fatality costs the taxpayer A$1.7 million. Serious injury cases can cost the taxpayer many times the cost of a fatality. Crashes are in general uncontrolled events and are dependent on a number of interrelated factors such as driver behaviour, traffic conditions, travel speed, road geometry and condition, and vehicle characteristics (e.g. tyre type pressure and condition, and suspension type and condition). Skid resistance is considered one of the most important surface characteristics as it has a direct impact on traffic safety. Attempts have been made worldwide to study the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Most of these studies used the statistical regression and correlation methods in analysing the relationships between skid resistance and road crashes. The outcomes from these studies provided mix results and not conclusive. The objective of this paper is to present a probability-based method of an ongoing study in identifying the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Historical skid resistance and crash data of a road network located in the tropical east coast of Queensland were analysed using the probability-based method. Analysis methodology and results of the relationships between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes are presented.

Access control : allocating resources to selfish agents

The ultimate goal of an authorisation system is to allocate each user the level of access they need to complete their job - no more and no less. This proves to be challenging in an organisational setting because on one hand employees need enough access to perform their tasks, while on the other hand more access will bring about an increasing risk of misuse - either intentionally, where an employee uses the access for personal benefit, or unintentionally through carelessness, losing the information or being socially engineered to give access to an adversary. With the goal of developing a more dynamic authorisation model, we have adopted a game theoretic framework to reason about the factors that may affect users’ likelihood to misuse a permission at the time of an access decision. Game theory provides a useful but previously ignored perspective in authorisation theory: the notion of the user as a self-interested player who selects among a range of possible actions depending on their pay-offs.

Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

Towards the adoption of low-cost rail level crossing warning devices in regional areas of Australia : a review of current technologies and reliability issues

This paper discusses major obstacles for the adoption of low cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) in Australia and reviews those trialed in Australia and internationally. The argument for the use of LCLCWDs is that for a given investment, more passive level crossings can be treated, therefore increasing safety benefits across the rail network. This approach, in theory, reduces risk across the network by utilizing a combination of low-cost and conventional level crossing interventions, similar to what is done in the road environment. This paper concludes that in order to determine if this approach can produce better safety outcomes than the current approach, involving the incremental upgrade of level crossings with conventional interventions, it is necessary to perform rigorous risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of LCLCWDs. Further research is also needed to determine how best to differentiate less reliable LCCLWDs from conventional warning devices through the use of different warning signs and signals. This paper presents a strategy for progressing research and development of LCLCWDs and details how the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Rail Innovation is fulfilling this strategy through the current and future affordable level crossing projects.

Waist circumference cut-off values for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering in Chinese school-aged children : a cross-sectional study

Background: Waist circumference has been identified as a valuable predictor of cardiovascular risk in children. The development of waist circumference percentiles and cut-offs for various ethnic groups are necessary because of differences in body composition. The purpose of this study was to develop waist circumference percentiles for Chinese children and to explore optimal waist circumference cut-off values for predicting cardiovascular risk factors clustering in this population.----- ----- Methods: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured in 5529 children (2830 boys and 2699 girls) aged 6-12 years randomly selected from southern and northern China. Blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose were obtained in a subsample (n = 1845). Smoothed percentile curves were produced using the LMS method. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was used to derive the optimal age- and gender-specific waist circumference thresholds for predicting the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors.----- ----- Results: Gender-specific waist circumference percentiles were constructed. The waist circumference thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67% to 83%. The odds ratio of a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors among boys and girls with a higher value than cut-off points was 10.349 (95% confidence interval 4.466 to 23.979) and 8.084 (95% confidence interval 3.147 to 20.767) compared with their counterparts.----- ----- Conclusions: Percentile curves for waist circumference of Chinese children are provided. The cut-off point for waist circumference to predict cardiovascular risk factors clustering is at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively.

Who is the corporate entrepreneur? Insights from opportunity discovery and Creation Theory

Recent research has begun to address and even compare nascent entrepreneurship and nascent corporate entrepreneurship. An opportunity based view holds great potential to integrate both streams of research, but also presents challenges in how we define corporate entrepreneurship. We extend (corporate) entrepreneurship literature to the opportunity identification phase by providing a framework to classify different types of corporate entrepreneurship. Through analysis of a large dataset on nascent (corporate) entrepreneurship (PSEDII) we show that these corporate entrepreneurs differ largely from each other in terms of human capital. Prior studies have indicated that independent and corporate entrepreneurs pursue different types of opportunities and utilize different strategies. Our findings from the opportunity identification phase challenge those differences and seem to indicate a difference between the opportunities corporate entrepreneurs identify versus the opportunities they exploit.