Gazdasági kórkép alulnézetből I. rész (Syndrome of Hungarian Economy from Bottom-view – I. part)

A rendszerváltás utáni időszak gazdasági teljesítményei a beteljesült remények és a megvalósulatlan várakozások egymást követő hullámzásait takarják. A mögöttünk hagyott két évtized első felét a gazdasági szerkezetváltás, a piaci kapcsolatok módosulása, valamint új – többségében külföldi – befektetői csoportok megjelenése jellemezte, amelyek együttes hozadéka volt a gazdaság stabilizálódása, majd az új növekedési pályára állás. Az ezredfordulót követő évtized első felére azonban a külföldi befektetésekre alapozott gazdaságfejlesztési stratégia erejét vesztette, s a helyettesítésre szánt hazai kkv-szektor – a kiemelt támogatások és a kedvezmények ellenére – nem tudott a növekedés motorjává válni. Szerzőnk – a BCE tudományos kutatója és az APEH korábbi elnöke – a versenyszektor 2000–2008. évi pénzügyi beszámolói alapján a hazai vállalkozások demográfiai, teljesítményi és eredményességi jellemzőit vizsgálja, s két részből álló tanulmányában arra keresi a választ, hogy a várakozásoktól elmaradó működési eredményekben milyen szerepe lehet a gazdaságfejlesztési stratégia hiányának, a vállalkozási teljesítmények elégtelenségének, a tőkehiánynak, illetve a pénzügyi rendszer torzulásainak. Szerkesztőségünk a tanulmányt olyan vitaindítónak tekinti, ami széles érdeklődésre tarthat számot, s szívesen vállalkozunk arra, hogy közreadunk minden jobbító szándékú gondolatot. _______ The economic performance during the transition period was characterized by the alternations of fulfilled hopes and unrealized expectations. The economic restructuring and changes in market relations took place during the first decade, while new – mostly foreign – investment groups entered on the new market. As a result the economy was stabilized and was put to a new growth path. But after the millennium the foreign investment based economy development strategy was no more adequate. The new engine for the growth should have been the domestic small and medium enterprise sector (SME), but despite the subsidies this sector was not strengthened to take this role. The author – the researcher of BCE, and the ex-president of APEH – analyses the characteristics of the domestic business demography, performance and effectiveness, based on the 2000–2008 annual financial statements of the business sector. The two-part study seeks the reason for the disappointing operation results. What role take in this phenomena the absence of economic strategy, the deficiency of business performance, the lack of capital and the financial distortions of the system. Our editorial intend this study as a debate for the public, and we would publish the ideas which improves this relevant topic.

Gazdasági kórkép alulnézetből 2. rész (Syndrome of Hungarian Economy from Bottom-view - part 2.)

A magyar gazdaság új növekedési pályára állása a kilencvenes évek végére tehető, s ebben meghatározó szerepe volt a pótlólagos erőforrásként szolgáló külföldi működőtőke-befektetéseknek. A nemzetközi tőkeáramlás ezredfordulót követő módosulása (csökkenő volumen, változó irányultság) kedvezőtlenül érintette a hazai gazdaságot, aminek egyik következménye a beruházások csökkenése és a növekedési ütem lassulása, másik következménye viszont – a jövedelemkiáramlást semlegesítő hatás elmaradása miatt – a fizetési mérleg romlása. Ebben a helyzetben halaszthatatlanná vált az államháztartási egyensúlyromlás megállítása, illetve a gazdasági fejlődés új alapokra helyezése. A szerző elemzésében – a hazai versenyszektor eredményességi és vagyoni jellemzőinek értékelésével – azt szeretné jelezni, hogy az egyensúlytalansági állapot megszüntetése nem szorítkozhat az államháztartási rendszerre, vagyis az ország helyzetének stabilizálása, majd új növekedési pályára állás nem képzelhető el a gazdaság átfogó modernizációja nélkül. Vizsgálata a ténylegesen működő (343 ezer) hazai társas vállalkozás 2000–2008. évi pénzügyi beszámolóinak adataira épül. Álláspontja szerint a mintavétel nagysága ellensúlyozza az esetleges torzító hatásokat (lásd: helyenként előforduló kreatív beszámolók), így a vállalkozások mennyiségi gyarapodása, méret szerinti megoszlása, a gazdasági tevékenység jellege, a teljesítmények és eredmények alakulása, a vállalkozói vagyon módosulása megbízhatóan értékelhető, illetve a tapasztalatok alapján a korrekciós intézkedések igénye és azok tartalma is jól körvonalazható. Tanulmányát így ajánljuk a téma iránt érdeklődőknek, a versenyszektor szereplőinek, de leginkább a gazdaságpolitika formálóinak. _________ The economic performance during the transition period was characterized by the alternations of fulfilled hopes and unrealized expectations. The economic restructuring and changes in market relations took place during the first decade, while new – mostly foreign – investment groups entered on the new market. As a result the economy was stabilized and was put to a new growth path. But after the millennium the foreign investment based economy development strategy was no more adequate. The new engine for the growth should have been the domestic small and medium enterprise sector (SsME), but despite the subsidies this sector was not strengthened to take this role. The author – the researcher of BCE, and the ex-president of APpEH – analyses the characteristics of the domestic business demography, performance and effectiveness, based on the 2000–2008 annual financial statements of the business sector. In the author’s analysis – with assessment of the domestic business sector and financial performance characteristicst - he would like to point out that the imbalance can not be confined to the elimination of state government system, that is, the country’s situation to stabilize, and then post a new growth path is not conceivable without the modernization of the economy overall. In his view, the sample size outweighed the possible distortionary effects (see occurring in places of creative accounts), so the growth of business volume, size distribution, the nature of economic activity, the evolution of performance and results, a reliable assessment of changes in the business of property and the experience on the basis of the need for corrective action, and its contents are also well delineated. Sstudy it is recommended for those interested in the topic, the business sector actors, but most of the economic policy makers.

Determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion: social contagion and prescribing characteristics

This article studies the determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion among specialists. To this end, it investigates the influences of six categories of factors—social embeddedness, socio-demography, scientific orientation, prescribing patterns, practice characteristics, and patient panel composition—on the use of new drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Hungary. Here, in line with international trends, 11 brands were introduced between April 2008 and April 2010, outperforming all other therapeutic classes. The Cox proportional hazards model identifies three determinants—social contagion (in the social embeddedness category) and prescribing portfolio and insulin prescribing ratio (in the prescribing pattern category). First, social contagion has a positive effect among geographically close colleagues—the higher the adoption ratio, the higher the likelihood of early adoption—but no influence among former classmates and scientific collaborators. Second, the wider the prescribing portfolio, the earlier the new drug uptake. Third, the lower the insulin prescribing ratio, the earlier the new drug uptake—physicians’ therapeutic convictions and patients’ socioeconomic statuses act as underlying influencers. However, this finding does not extend to opinion-leading physicians such as scientific leaders and hospital department and outpatient center managers. This article concludes by arguing that healthcare policy strategists and pharmaceutical companies may rely exclusively on practice location and prescription data to perfect interventions and optimize budgets.

The cultural politics of Jamaican dancehall music in South Florida

For Jamaicans throughout the Diaspora, dancehall music has emerged as their most potent cultural symbol demarcating their place of origin and continued sense of national belonging. Due to its unapologetic nature and tendency to tackle divisive issues such as those involving race, class, and sex, dancehall has been unfairly branded as wholly misogynistic and violent. This dissertation attempts to counter some of these assertions by exploring the cultural politics of dancehall music in South Florida's Jamaican community. Information for this study was obtained using participant observation, formal, and informal interviews. Participant observation was conducted over a 2 year period at several dancehall clubs and events throughout South Florida. A total of 24 formal and 30 informal interviews were conducted with listeners of the music and business owners who are directly and indirectly involved with the promotion, production, and distribution of dancehall in South Florida. ^ Results show that dancehall enacts cultural politics in three primary ways in South Florida. First, the music serves as one of several types of materials used in the construction of a "Jamaican identity." This is achieved through the lyrical content of the music where social, economic and political issues affecting the island are often discussed and debated. Second, dancehall operates as a form of cultural politics through its nurturing of nationalistic sensibilities. Evidence of this is apparent in the controversy involving dancehall's homophobic stance. Third, dancehall affords Jamaicans in South Florida the ability to transplant and perpetuate the uptown versus downtown divide. ^ Far from being wholly misogynistic and violent, therefore, dancehall is an important tool that can be used to address a wide variety of issues within the local Jamaican context and throughout the Jamaican diaspora. ^

Voting with their feet: Migration, partisanship, and party-safe elections in Florida

Political scientists have long noted that Congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of Congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is partially confirmed, for the migration effect appears to have waned over time. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county population is a predictor of how that county will vote. This hypothesis is also supported by the results of statistical analysis. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this dissertation not only broadens our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

A state of war: Florida from 1939 to 1945

World War II profoundly impacted Florida. The military geography of the State is essential to an understanding the war. The geostrategic concerns of place and space determined that Florida would become a statewide military base. Florida's attributes of place such as climate and topography determined its use as a military academy hosting over two million soldiers, nearly 15 percent of the GI Army, the largest force the US ever raised. One-in-eight Floridians went into uniform. Equally, Florida's space on the planet made it central for both defensive and offensive strategies. The Second World War was a war of movement, and Florida was a major jump off point for US force projection world-wide, especially of air power. Florida's demography facilitated its use as a base camp for the assembly and engagement of this military power. In 1940, less than two percent of the US population lived in Florida, a quiet, barely populated backwater of the United States. But owing to its critical place and space, over the next few years it became a 65,000 square mile training ground, supply dump, and embarkation site vital to the US war effort. Because of its place astride some of the most important sea lanes in the Atlantic World, Florida was the scene of one of the few Western Hemisphere battles of the war. The militarization of Florida began long before Pearl Harbor. The pre-war buildup conformed to the US strategy of the war. The strategy of theUS was then (and remains today) one of forward defense: harden the frontier, then take the battle to the enemy, rather than fight them in North America. The policy of "Europe First," focused the main US war effort on the defeat of Hitler's Germany, evaluated to be the most dangerous enemy. In Florida were established the military forces requiring the longest time to develop, and most needed to defeat the Axis. Those were a naval aviation force for sea-borne hostilities, a heavy bombing force for reducing enemy industrial states, and an aerial logistics train for overseas supply of expeditionary campaigns. The unique Florida coastline made possible the seaborne invasion training demanded for US victory. The civilian population was employed assembling mass-produced first-generation container ships, while Floridahosted casualties, Prisoners-of-War, and transient personnel moving between the Atlantic and Pacific. By the end of hostilities and the lifting of Unlimited Emergency, officially on December 31, 1946, Floridahad become a transportation nexus. Florida accommodated a return of demobilized soldiers, a migration of displaced persons, and evolved into a modern veterans' colonia. It was instrumental in fashioning the modern US military, while remaining a center of the active National Defense establishment. Those are the themes of this work.

A comprehensive assessment of self -report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children in Florida

Adoption of special needs children is now seen as a life long event whereby the adoptive child and family have unique needs. The need for postplacement resources throughout the life cycle of the adoption process is evident. This exploratory-descriptive research employed a random stratified cross-sectional design. The purpose of the study was to describe, identify, examine, and assess the relative influence of identified empirically and conceptually relevant variables of self-report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children. Primary areas of exploration included: (1) adoptive children and families' characteristics, (2) postplacement service needs, utilization and satisfaction, and (3) adoptive parents' perceptions of their adoption experiences. A proportionate stratified random mail survey was used to obtain 474 families who had adopted special needs children from the 15 geographic districts which make up the state adoption social service agency in Florida. A 144-item survey questionnaire was used to collect basic information on demographic data, service provision, and adoption experiences. Four research questions were analyzed to test the effect the predictor variables had on willingness to adopt another special needs child, successful adoption, satisfying experience, and realism about problems. All four research questions revealed that the full model and the child's antecedent and the adoptive parents' intervening variable blocks were significant in explaining the variance in the dependent variables. The child's intervening variables alone were only significant in explaining the variance for one of the dependent variables. The results of the statistical analysis on the fifth research question and the three hypotheses determined that (1) only one postplacement service, crisis intervention, had a statistically significant impact on the adoptive parents' perceived level of satisfaction with the adoption experience; (2) adoptive parents who rate their adoption as successful are more likely to express a desire to adopt another special needs child; (3) the more adequate information on the child the adoptive parents perceived that they had prior to placement, the more they perceived they were realistic about the problems they would encounter; and (4) six specific postplacement services were found to be significant in predicting successful adoptions--crisis intervention, outpatient drug/alcohol treatment, maintenance subsidy, physical therapy, special medical equipment, and family counseling. Implications for the social work field and future research are discussed. ^

An ethnolinguistic analysis of Hispanics in Miami -Dade County

Using a language ecology framework, this dissertation examines the ethnolinguistic vitality (demographic, institutional support and prestige factors) of the immigrant Hispanic population of Miami-Dade County. Using statistical analyses and GIS methods census data are analyzed compared to San Diego County. In addition, the historical, geographical and sociocultural situation in Miami-Dade County on Spanish language use is evaluated. Finally, using a 171-question survey, language attitudes are assessed. The dissertation concludes that because of the unique ethnolinguistic vitality of Hispanics in Miami-Dade County: (1) Significant residential patterns and a unique demographic profile of Hispanics throughout Miami-Dade County have contributed significantly to a stable bilingualism. (2) Although institutional support of Spanish use in Miami-Dade County is relatively robust, a lack of support in the educational institutions threatens the prospects of continued, stable individual bilingualism and community diglossia. (3) Hispanics in Miami-Dade County are likely to support the use of Spanish as a private and public language because they consider it an important part of both their cultural heritage and their daily lives. ^

The economic well -being of low -income immigrants in the U.S.: An examination of the impact of the 1996 welfare reform on immigrants

The 1996 welfare reform, for the first time in U.S. history, set a five-year residence requirement for immigrants to be eligible for federal welfare benefits. This dissertation assessed the impact of the 1996 welfare reform, specifically the immigrant provisions, on the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. This dissertation also explored the roles that migration selection theory and social capital theory play in the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. ^ This dissertation was based on an analysis of the March 1995, March 2002, and March 2006 Annual Demographic Supplement Files of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Both logistic regression and multiple regression were used to analyze economic well-being, comparing low-income immigrants with low-income citizens. Economic well-being was measured in the current survey year and the year before on the following variables: employment status, full-time status (35 or more hours per week), the number of weeks worked, and the total annual wage or salary.^ The major findings reported in this dissertation were that low-income immigrants had advantages over low-income citizens in the labor market. This may be due to immigrants' stronger motivation to obtain success, consistent with migration selection theory. Also, this research suggested that immigrant provisions had not ameliorated employment outcomes of low-income immigrants as policymakers may have expected.^ The study also confirmed the role of social capital in advancing the economic well-being of qualified immigrants. Ultimately, this dissertation contributed to our understanding of low-income immigrants in the U.S. The study questioned the claim that immigrants are attracted to the U.S. by welfare benefits. This dissertation suggested that immigrants come to the U.S., to a large extent, to pursue the goal of upward mobility. Consequently, immigrants may employ greater initiative and work harder than native-born Americans.^

Social Capital and International Migration from Latin America

We combine data from the Latin American Migration Project and the Mexican Migration Project to estimate models predicting the likelihood of taking of first and later trips to the United States from five nations: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Peru. The models test specific hypotheses about the effects of social capital on international migration and how these effects vary with respect to contextual factors. Our findings confirm the ubiquity of migrant networks and the universality of social capital effects throughout Latin America. They also reveal how the sizes of these effects are not uniform across settings. Social capital operates more powerfully on first as opposed to later trips and interacts with the cost of migration. In addition, effects are somewhat different when considering individual social capital (measuring strong ties) and community social capital (measuring weak ties). On first trips, the effect of strong ties in promoting migration increases with distance whereas the effect of weak ties decreases with distance. On later trips, the direction of effects for both individual and community social capital is negative for long distances but positive for short distances.

The Effects of the Use of Technology In Mathematics Instruction on Student Achievement

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the use of technology on students’ mathematics achievement, particularly the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) mathematics results. Eleven schools within the Miami-Dade County Public School System participated in a pilot program on the use of Geometers Sketchpad (GSP). Three of these schools were randomly selected for this study. Each school sent a teacher to a summer in-service training program on how to use GSP to teach geometry. In each school, the GSP class and a traditional geometry class taught by the same teacher were the study participants. Students’ mathematics FCAT results were examined to determine if the GSP produced any effects. Students’ scores were compared based on assignment to the control or experimental group as well as gender and SES. SES measurements were based on whether students qualified for free lunch. The findings of the study revealed a significant difference in the FCAT mathematics scores of students who were taught geometry using GSP compared to those who used the traditional method. No significant differences existed between the FCAT mathematics scores of the students based on SES. Similarly, no significant differences existed between the FCAT scores based on gender. In conclusion, the use of technology (particularly GSP) is likely to boost students’ FCAT mathematics test scores. The findings also show that the use of GSP may be able to close known gender and SES related achievement gaps. The results of this study promote policy changes in the way geometry is taught to 10th grade students in Florida’s public schools.

The importance of realistic dispersal models in planning for conservation : application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot

Funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie. Grant Number: 661211 Research Foundation Flanders (FWO). Grant Numbers: G.0055.08, G.0149.09, G.0308.13 FWO Research Network on Eco-Evolutionary dynamics French Ministère de l'Energie de l'Ecologie du Développement Durable et de la Mer through the EU FP6 BiodivERsA Eranet NERC. Grant Number: NE/J008001/1

Join the Union and Be Safe : The Effects of Unionization on Occupational Safety and Health in the European Union

Acknowledgements: Thanks go to the participants of the ‘Health and Work’ Organised Session (2011) of the Scottish Economic Society 2011 Annual Conference, Perth, Scotland, for helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to the editor Franco Peracchi and the referees of this journal for helpful comments and suggestions. The financial support of the European Commission is gratefully acknowledged (HEALTHatWORK Project) — 7th Framework Programme THEME [HEALTH-2007-4.2-3] Grant Agreement No: 200716.

Join the Union and Be Safe : The Effects of Unionization on Occupational Safety and Health in the European Union

Acknowledgements: Thanks go to the participants of the ‘Health and Work’ Organised Session (2011) of the Scottish Economic Society 2011 Annual Conference, Perth, Scotland, for helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to the editor Franco Peracchi and the referees of this journal for helpful comments and suggestions. The financial support of the European Commission is gratefully acknowledged (HEALTHatWORK Project) — 7th Framework Programme THEME [HEALTH-2007-4.2-3] Grant Agreement No: 200716.

The empirical case against the ‘demographic turn’ in Palaeolithic archaeology

Funding. M.C.’s work is supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research of Canada, the Canada Research Chairs Programme, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, the British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund and Simon Fraser University. K.V. received support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (VIDI-grant 016.144312). R.C. and W.R. are supported by the Australian Research Council (discovery grants nos DP120100580 and DP150100586).