929 resultados para weak informative prior
Resumo:
Effects of the dihydropyridine, nimodipine, an antagonist at L-type calcium channels, on the memory loss in rats caused by long term alcohol consumption were examined. Either a single dose of nimodipine or 2 weeks of repeated administration was given prior to withdrawal from 8 months of alcohol consumption. Memory was measured by the object recognition test and the T maze. Both nimodipine treatments prevented the memory deficits when these were measured between 1 and 2 months after alcohol withdrawal. At the end of the memory testing, 2 months after cessation of chronic alcohol consumption, glucocorticoid concentrations were increased in specific regions of rat brain without changes in plasma concentrations. Both nimodipine treatment schedules substantially reduced these rises in brain glucocorticoid. The data indicate that blockade of L-type calcium channels prior to alcohol withdrawal protects against the memory deficits caused by prolonged alcohol intake. This shows that specific drug treatments, such as nimodipine, given over the acute withdrawal phase, can prevented the neuronal changes responsible for subsequent adverse effects of long term consumption of alcohol. The results also suggest the possibility that regional brain glucocorticoid increases may be involved in the adverse effects of long term alcohol intake on memory. Such local changes in brain glucocorticoid levels would have major effects on neuronal function. The studies indicate that L-type calcium channels and brain glucocorticoid levels could form new targets for the treatment of cognitive deficits in alcoholics.
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AIMS: In the Swiss heroin substitution trials, patients are treated with self-administered diacetylmorphine (heroin). Intravenous administration is not possible in patients that have venosclerosis. Earlier studies have demonstrated that oral diacetylmorphine may be used, although it is completely converted to morphine presystemically. Morphine bioavailability after high-dose oral diacetylmorphine is considerably higher than would be predicted from low-dose trials. The aim was to investigate whether the unexpectedly high bioavailability is due to a difference in the drug examined, and whether it depends on previous exposure or on dose. METHODS: Opioid-naive healthy volunteers and dependent patients from the Swiss heroin trials (n = 8 per group) received low doses of intravenous and oral deuterium-labelled morphine and diacetylmorphine, respectively. Patients also received a high oral diacetylmorphine dose. RESULTS: The maximum plasma concentration (C(max)) of morphine was twofold higher after oral diacetylmorphine than after morphine administration in both groups. However, morphine bioavailability was considerably higher in chronic users [diacetylmorphine 45.6% (95% confidence interval 40.0, 51.3), morphine 37.2% (30.1, 44.3)] than in naive subjects [diacetylmorphine 22.9% (16.4, 29.4), morphine 23.9% (16.5, 31.2)] after low oral doses (48.5 micromol) of either diacetylmorphine or morphine. Morphine clearance was similar in both groups. Moreover, oral absorption of morphine from diacetylmorphine was found to be dose dependent, with bioavailability reaching 64.2% (55.3, 73.1) for high diacetylmorphine doses (1601 micromol). CONCLUSIONS: Oral absorption of opioids is substance-, dose- and patient collective-dependent, suggesting that there may be a saturation of first-pass processes, the exact mechanism of which is not yet understood.
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PURPOSE: To evaluate the consecutive treatment results regarding pterygium recurrence and the efficacy of exclusive strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation for primary and recurrent pterygia and to analyze the functional outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between October 1974 and December 2005, 58 primary and 21 recurrent pterygia were exclusively treated with strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation with doses ranging from 3,600 to 5,500 cGy. The follow-up time was 46.6 +/- 26.7 months, with a median of 46.5 months. RESULTS: The treatment led to a size reduction in all pterygia (p < 0.0001). Neither recurrences nor side effects were observed during therapy and follow-up in this study. Best-corrected visual acuity increased (p = 0.0064). Corneal astigmatism was reduced in recurrent pterygia (p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: Exclusive strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation of pterygia is a very efficient and well-tolerated treatment, with remarkable aesthetic and rehabilitative results in comparison to conventional treatments, especially for recurrent lesions which have undergone prior surgical excision.
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Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .
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This paper examines the characteristics of suicide bombers as reflected in the Israeli press during the Second Intifada in Israel. The analysis aims to determine whether there were significant differences in the characteristics of suicide bombers with religious motives versus those with nationalist motives. The findings reveal that gender, education level, and organizational affiliation correlated significantly with motives for carrying out suicide attacks. Most of the suicide bombers with religious motives were men with elementary education. In addition, the results show that most of the suicide bombers who were affiliated with the Hamas organization acted out of religious motives. No significant differences were found between suicide bombers with religious and those with nationalist motives with regard to age, marital status, and prior activity in terrorist organizations.
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Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) rapid tests and routine BSE-testing laboratories underlie strict regulations for approval. Due to the lack of BSE-positive control samples, however, full assay validation at the level of individual test runs and continuous monitoring of test performance on-site is difficult. Most rapid tests use synthetic prion protein peptides, but it is not known to which extend they reflect the assay performance on field samples, and whether they are sufficient to indicate on-site assay quality problems. To address this question we compared the test scores of the provided kit peptide controls to those of standardized weak BSE-positive tissue samples in individual test runs as well as continuously over time by quality control charts in two widely used BSE rapid tests. Our results reveal only a weak correlation between the weak positive tissue control and the peptide control scores. We identified kit-lot related shifts in the assay performances that were not reflected by the peptide control scores. Vice versa, not all shifts indicated by the peptide control scores indeed reflected a shift in the assay performance. In conclusion these data highlight that the use of the kit peptide controls for continuous quality control purposes may result in unjustified rejection or acceptance of test runs. However, standardized weak positive tissue controls in combination with Shewhart-CUSUM control charts appear to be reliable in continuously monitoring assay performance on-site to identify undesired deviations.
A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979
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We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.
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BACKGROUND Controversy exists in the literature between the role of orthodontic treatment and gingival recession. Whilst movement of teeth outside the alveolar bone has been reported as a risk factor for gingival recession, others have found no such association. FINDINGS The Angle Society of Europe devoted a study day to explore the evidence surrounding these controversies. The aim of the day was for a panel of experts to evaluate the current evidence base in relation to either the beneficial or detrimental effects of orthodontic treatment on the gingival tissue. CONCLUSIONS There remains a relatively weak evidence base for the role of orthodontic treatment and gingival recession and thus a need to undertake a risk assessment and appropriate consent prior to the commencement of treatment. In further prospective, well designed trials are needed.