In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Infective stages of Leishmania in the sandfly vector and some observations on the mechanism of transmission

Infective stages of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, capable of producing amastigote infections in hamster skin, were shown to be present in the experimentally infected sandfly vector Lutzomyia flaviscutellata 15, 25, 40, 49, 70, 96 and 120 hours after the flies had received their infective blood-meal. Similarly, infective stages of Leishmania (L.) chagasi were demonstrated in the experimentally infected vector Lu. longipalpis examined 38, 50, 63, 87, 110, 135, 171 and 221 hours following the infective blood-meal, by the intraperitoneal inoculation of the flagellates into hamsters. The question of whether or not transmission by the bite of the sandfly is dependent on the presence of [quot ]metacyclic[quot ] promastigotes in the mouthparts of the vector is discussed.

Identification of vector species (Diptera: Simuliidae) of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonia focus of Brazil and Venezuela

The taxonomic status of three Amazonian simuliid species, Simulium guianese Wise, S. oyapockense Floch & Abonnenc and S. yarzabali Ramirez Perez is reviewed. Simulium cuasisanguineum Ramirez Perez, Yarzabal & Peterson is synonymized with S. oyapockense, and S. yarzabali is revalidated from its synonymy with S. incrustatum Lutz. The role of these three species in the transmission of human onchocerciasis and mansonelliasis in Amazonia is reviewed.

Elements of algebraic geometry and the positive theory of partially commutative groups

The first main result of the paper is a criterion for a partially commutative group G to be a domain. It allows us to reduce the study of algebraic sets over G to the study of irreducible algebraic sets, and reduce the elementary theory of G (of a coordinate group over G) to the elementary theories of the direct factors of G (to the elementary theory of coordinate groups of irreducible algebraic sets). Then we establish normal forms for quantifier-free formulas over a non-abelian directly indecomposable partially commutative group H. Analogously to the case of free groups, we introduce the notion of a generalised equation and prove that the positive theory of H has quantifier elimination and that arbitrary first-order formulas lift from H to H * F, where F is a free group of finite rank. As a consequence, the positive theory of an arbitrary partially commutative group is decidable.

A general construction of internal sheaves in algebraic set theory

We present a solution to the problem of defining a counterpart in Algebraic Set Theory of the construction of internal sheaves in Topos Theory. Our approach is general in that we consider sheaves as determined by Lawvere-Tierney coverages, rather than by Grothen-dieck coverages, and assume only a weakening of the axioms for small maps originally introduced by Joyal and Moerdijk, thus subsuming the existing topos-theoretic results.

Rational first integrals in the Darboux theory of integrability in Cn

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Weighted limits in simplicial homotopy theory

We extend the theory of Quillen adjunctions by combining ideas of homotopical algebra and of enriched category theory. Our results describe how the formulas for homotopy colimits of Bousfield and Kan arise from general formulas describing the derived functor of the weighted colimit functor.

Vector salivation and parasite transmission

Saliva of blood-sucking arthropods contains substances that counteract the host's hemostatic and inflammatory reactions, allowing the arthropod to locate blood and keep it flowing during the blood meal. Parasites may manipulate this system in order to achieve increased transmission, both to vertebrate and to invertebrate hosts. Additionally, salivary pharmacological substances may locally immunosupress the delivery site, allowing initial colonization of the vertebrate host by the parasite.

Expression of Staphylococcus aureus clumping factor A in Lactococcus lactis subsp. cremoris using a new shuttle vector.

Staphylococcus aureus harbors redundant adhesins mediating tissue colonization and infection. To evaluate their intrinsic role outside of the staphylococcal background, a system was designed to express them in Lactococcus lactis subsp. cremoris 1363. This bacterium is devoid of virulence factors and has a known genetic background. A new Escherichia coli-L. lactis shuttle and expression vector was constructed for this purpose. First, the high-copy-number lactococcal plasmid pIL253 was equipped with the oriColE1 origin, generating pOri253 that could replicate in E. coli. Second, the lactococcal promoters P23 or P59 were inserted at one end of the pOri253 multicloning site. Gene expression was assessed by a luciferase reporter system. The plasmid carrying P23 (named pOri23) expressed luciferase constitutively at a level 10,000 times greater than did the P59-containing plasmid. Transcription was absent in E. coli. The staphylococcal clumping factor A (clfA) gene was cloned into pOri23 and used as a model system. Lactococci carrying pOri23-clfA produced an unaltered and functional 130-kDa ClfA protein attached to their cell walls. This was indicated both by the presence of the protein in Western blots of solubilized cell walls and by the ability of ClfA-positive lactococci to clump in the presence of plasma. ClfA-positive lactococci had clumping titers (titer of 4,112) similar to those of S. aureus Newman in soluble fibrinogen and bound equally well to solid-phase fibrinogen. These experiments provide a new way to study individual staphylococcal pathogenic factors and might complement both classical knockout mutagenesis and modern in vivo expression technology and signature tag mutagenesis.

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Why it is difficult to control Biomphalaria glabrata, the vector snail of schistosomiasis

The author studied some protective behaviors of Biomphalaria glabrata (vertical movements, response to molluscicides and response to water currents) and demonstrated how these activities hamper the control of this snail, which is the main vector of schistosomiasis in Brazil.

Morphological evidence by scanning electron microscopy of excretion of metacyclic forms of Trypanosoma cruzi in vector's urine

Comparision by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of Trypanosoma cruzi flagellates attached to the cuticle of the rectal gland of infected Dipetalogaster maxima nymphs, showed marked differences before amd after feeding. Before feeding numerous metacyclic trypomastigotes were observed among the abundant epimastigotes that formed the carpet of flagellates. On the other hand, in insects that were allowed to urinate for 24 hours after a meal, the metacyclics were scarce,indicating that they had been detached by the urine flow. An asymetric type of cell division, probably originating both an epi-and a trypomastigote, was occasionally observed. The occurrence of swellings at different levels of the flagella of epimastigotes suggests that secondary sites of attachment may be common.