What do patients want to know? An empirical approach to explanation generation and validation

This article describes an empirical, user-centred approach to explanation design. It reports three studies that investigate what patients want to know when they have been prescribed medication. The question is asked in the context of the development of a drug prescription system called OPADE. The system is aimed primarily at improving the prescribing behaviour of physicians, but will also produce written explanations for indirect users such as patients. In the first study, a large number of people were presented with a scenario about a visit to the doctor, and were asked to list the questions that they would like to ask the doctor about the prescription. On the basis of the results of the study, a categorization of question types was developed in terms of how frequently particular questions were asked. In the second and third studies a number of different explanations were generated in accordance with this categorization, and a new sample of people were presented with another scenario and were asked to rate the explanations on a number of dimensions. The results showed significant differences between the different explanations. People preferred explanations that included items corresponding to frequently asked questions in study 1. For an explanation to be considered useful, it had to include information about side effects, what the medication does, and any lifestyle changes involved. The implications of the results of the three studies are discussed in terms of the development of OPADE's explanation facility.

Case study of the use of remotely sensed data for modeling flood inundation on the river Severn, UK.

A methodology for using remotely sensed data to both generate and evaluate a hydraulic model of floodplain inundation is presented for a rural case study in the United Kingdom: Upton-upon-Severn. Remotely sensed data have been processed and assembled to provide an excellent test data set for both model construction and validation. In order to assess the usefulness of the data and the issues encountered in their use, two models for floodplain inundation were constructed: one based on an industry standard one-dimensional approach and the other based on a simple two-dimensional approach. The results and their implications for the future use of remotely sensed data for predicting flood inundation are discussed. Key conclusions for the use of remotely sensed data are that care must be taken to integrate different data sources for both model construction and validation and that improvements in ground height data shift the focus in terms of model uncertainties to other sources such as boundary conditions. The differences between the two models are found to be of minor significance.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Validation of the social communication questionnaire in a population cohort of children with autism spectrum disorders

Objective: To examine the properties of the Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ) in a population cohort of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) and in the general population, Method: SCQ data were collected from three samples: the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP) cohort of 9- to 10-year-old children with special educational needs with and without ASD and two similar but separate age groups of children from the general population (n = 411 and n = 247). Diagnostic assessments were completed on a stratified subsample (n = 255) of the special educational needs group. A sample-weighting procedure enabled us to estimate characteristics of the SCQ in the total ASD population. Diagnostic status of cases in the general population samples were extracted from child health records. Results: The SCQ showed strong discrimination between ASD and non-ASD cases (sensitivity 0.88, specificity 0.72) and between autism and nonautism cases (sensitivity 0.90, specificity 0.86). Findings were not affected by child IQ or parental education. In the general population samples between 4% and 5% of children scored above the ASD cutoff including 1.5% who scored above the autism cutoff. Although many of these high-scoring children had an ASD diagnosis, almost all (similar to 90%) of them had a diagnosed neurodevelopmental disorder. Conclusions: This study confirms the utility of the SCQ as a,first-level screen for ASD in at-risk samples of school-age children.

Validation of short tandem repeat analysis for the investigation of cases of disputed paternity

This study details validation of two separate multiplex STR systems for use in paternity investigations. These are the Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) developed by the UK Forensic Science Service and the PowerPlex 1 multiplex commercially available from Promega Inc. (Madison, WI, USA). These multiplexes contain 12 different STR systems (two are duplicated in the two systems). Population databases from Caucasian, Asian and Afro-Caribbean populations have been compiled for all loci. In all but two of the 36 STR/ethnic group combinations, no evidence was obtained to indicate inconsistency with Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. Empirical and theoretical approaches have been taken to validate these systems for paternity testing. Samples from 121 cases of disputed paternity were analysed using established Single Locus Probe (SLP) tests currently in use, and also using the two multiplex STR systems. Results of all three test systems were compared and no non-conformities in the conclusions were observed, although four examples of apparent germ line mutations in the STR systems were identified. The data was analysed to give information on expected paternity indices and exclusion rates for these STR systems. The 12 systems combined comprise a highly discriminating test suitable for paternity testing. 99.96% of non-fathers are excluded from paternity on two or more STR systems. Where no exclusion is found, Paternity Index (PI) values of > 10,000 are expected in > 96% of cases.

Energy at work: a measurement validation and linkage to unit effectiveness

We introduce the notion that the energy of individuals can manifest as a higher-level, collective construct. To this end, we conducted four independent studies to investigate the viability and importance of the collective energy construct as assessed by a new survey instrument—the productive energy measure (PEM). Study 1 (n = 2208) included exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to explore the underlying factor structure of PEM. Study 2 (n = 660) cross-validated the same factor structure in an independent sample. In study 3, we administered the PEM to more than 5000 employees from 145 departments located in five countries. Results from measurement invariance, statistical aggregation, convergent, and discriminant-validity assessments offered additional support for the construct validity of PEM. In terms of predictive and incremental validity, the PEM was positively associated with three collective attitudes—units' commitment to goals, the organization, and overall satisfaction. In study 4, we explored the relationship between the productive energy of firms and their overall performance. Using data from 92 firms (n = 5939employees), we found a positive relationship between the PEM (aggregated to the firm level) and the performance of those firms. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

B2B service brand identity: scale development and validation

Several brand identity frameworks have been published in the B2C and the B2B brand marketing literature. A reliable, valid and parsimonious service brand identity scale that empirically establishes the construct's dimensionality in a B2B market has yet to be developed. This paper reports the findings of a study conducted amongst 421 senior executives working in the UK IT Service sector to develop and validate a B2B Service Brand Identity Scale. Following established scale development procedures support is provided for a B2B Service Brand Identity Scale comprising five dimensions; employee and client focus, visual identity, brand personality, consistent communications and human resource initiatives. Concluding remarks discuss theoretical and managerial implications with limitations and directions for future research.

Validation of three new measure-correlate-predict models for the long-term prospection of the wind resource

The estimation of the long-term wind resource at a prospective site based on a relatively short on-site measurement campaign is an indispensable task in the development of a commercial wind farm. The typical industry approach is based on the measure-correlate-predict �MCP� method where a relational model between the site wind velocity data and the data obtained from a suitable reference site is built from concurrent records. In a subsequent step, a long-term prediction for the prospective site is obtained from a combination of the relational model and the historic reference data. In the present paper, a systematic study is presented where three new MCP models, together with two published reference models �a simple linear regression and the variance ratio method�, have been evaluated based on concurrent synthetic wind speed time series for two sites, simulating the prospective and the reference site. The synthetic method has the advantage of generating time series with the desired statistical properties, including Weibull scale and shape factors, required to evaluate the five methods under all plausible conditions. In this work, first a systematic discussion of the statistical fundamentals behind MCP methods is provided and three new models, one based on a nonlinear regression and two �termed kernel methods� derived from the use of conditional probability density functions, are proposed. All models are evaluated by using five metrics under a wide range of values of the correlation coefficient, the Weibull scale, and the Weibull shape factor. Only one of all models, a kernel method based on bivariate Weibull probability functions, is capable of accurately predicting all performance metrics studied.

Comparative study of the performance of the M-cycle counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers for indirect evaporative cooling - paving the path towards sustainable cooling of buildings

This paper provides a comparative study of the performance of cross-flow and counter-flow M-cycle heat exchangers for dew point cooling. It is recognised that evaporative cooling systems offer a low energy alternative to conventional air conditioning units. Recently emerged dew point cooling, as the renovated evaporative cooling configuration, is claimed to have much higher cooling output over the conventional evaporative modes owing to use of the M-cycle heat exchangers. Cross-flow and counter-flow heat exchangers, as the available structures for M-cycle dew point cooling processing, were theoretically and experimentally investigated to identify the difference in cooling effectiveness of both under the parallel structural/operational conditions, optimise the geometrical sizes of the exchangers and suggest their favourite operational conditions. Through development of a dedicated computer model and case-by-case experimental testing and validation, a parametric study of the cooling performance of the counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers was carried out. The results showed the counter-flow exchanger offered greater (around 20% higher) cooling capacity, as well as greater (15%–23% higher) dew-point and wet-bulb effectiveness when equal in physical size and under the same operating conditions. The cross-flow system, however, had a greater (10% higher) Energy Efficiency (COP). As the increased cooling effectiveness will lead to reduced air volume flow rate, smaller system size and lower cost, whilst the size and cost are the inherent barriers for use of dew point cooling as the alternation of the conventional cooling systems, the counter-flow system is considered to offer practical advantages over the cross-flow system that would aid the uptake of this low energy cooling alternative. In line with increased global demand for energy in cooling of building, largely by economic booming of emerging developing nations and recognised global warming, the research results will be of significant importance in terms of promoting deployment of the low energy dew point cooling system, helping reduction of energy use in cooling of buildings and cut of the associated carbon emission.

Assessment of thought–shape fusion: initial validation of a short version of the trait thought–shape fusion scale

Objective: Thought–shape fusion (TSF) is a cognitive distortion that has been linked to eating pathology. Two studies were conducted to further explore this phenomenon and to establish the psychometric properties of a French short version of the TSF scale. Method: In Study 1, students (n 5 284) completed questionnaires assessing TSF and related psychopathology. In Study 2, the responses of women with eating disorders (n 5 22) and women with no history of an eating disorder (n 5 23) were compared. Results: The French short version of the TSF scale has a unifactorial structure, with convergent validity with measures of eating pathology, and good internal consistency. Depression, eating pathology, body dissatisfaction, and thought-action fusion emerged as predictors of TSF. Individuals with eating disorders have higher TSF, and more clinically relevant food-related thoughts than do women with no history of an eating disorder. Discussion: This research suggests that the shortened TSF scale can suitably measure this construct, and provides support for the notion that TSF is associated with eating pathology.

The challenge of validation: assessing the performance of a test of productive vocabulary

This paper assesses the performance of a vocabulary test designed to measure second language productive vocabulary knowledge.The test, Lex30, uses a word association task to elicit vocabulary, and uses word frequency data to measure the vocabulary produced. Here we report firstly on the reliability of the test as measured by a test-retest study, a parallel test forms experiment and an internal consistency measure. We then investigate the construct validity of the test by looking at changes in test performance over time, analyses of correlations with scores on similar tests, and comparison of spoken and written test performance. Last, we examine the theoretical bases of the two main test components: eliciting vocabulary and measuring vocabulary. Interpretations of our findings are discussed in the context of test validation research literature. We conclude that the findings reported here present a robust argument for the validity of the test as a research tool, and encourage further investigation of its validity in an instructional context

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A universal agro-hydrological model for water and nitrogen cycles in the soil-crop system SMCR_N: critical update and further validation

Agro-hydrological models have widely been used for optimizing resources use and minimizing environmental consequences in agriculture. SMCRN is a recently developed sophisticated model which simulates crop response to nitrogen fertilizer for a wide range of crops, and the associated leaching of nitrate from arable soils. In this paper, we describe the improvements of this model by replacing the existing approximate hydrological cascade algorithm with a new simple and explicit algorithm for the basic soil water flow equation, which not only enhanced the model performance in hydrological simulation, but also was essential to extend the model application to the situations where the capillary flow is important. As a result, the updated SMCRN model could be used for more accurate study of water dynamics in the soil-crop system. The success of the model update was demonstrated by the simulated results that the updated model consistently out-performed the original model in drainage simulations and in predicting time course soil water content in different layers in the soil-wheat system. Tests of the updated SMCRN model against data from 4 field crop experiments showed that crop nitrogen offtakes and soil mineral nitrogen in the top 90 cm were in a good agreement with the measured values, indicating that the model could make more reliable predictions of nitrogen fate in the crop-soil system, and thus provides a useful platform to assess the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on crop yield and nitrogen leaching from different production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Unsteady flow simulation of a vertical axis augmented wind turbine: a two-dimensional study

As the integration of vertical axis wind turbines in the built environment is a promising alternative to horizontal axis wind turbines, a 2D computational investigation of an augmented wind turbine is proposed and analysed. In the initial CFD analysis, three parameters are carefully investigated: mesh resolution; turbulence model; and time step size. It appears that the mesh resolution and the turbulence model affect result accuracy; while the time step size examined, for the unsteady nature of the flow, has small impact on the numerical results. In the CFD validation of the open rotor with secondary data, the numerical results are in good agreement in terms of shape. It is, however, observed a discrepancy factor of 2 between numerical and experimental data. Successively, the introduction of an omnidirectional stator around the wind turbine increases the power and torque coefficients by around 30–35% when compared to the open case; but attention needs to be given to the orientation of the stator blades for optimum performance. It is found that the power and torque coefficients of the augmented wind turbine are independent of the incident wind speed considered.