Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification application to SA simulation codes in advanced SMR

In the framework of a global transition to a low-carbon energy mix, the interest in advanced nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has been growing at the international level. Due to the high level of maturity reached by Severe Accident Codes for currently operating rectors, their applicability to advanced SMRs is starting to be studied. Within the present work of thesis and in the framework of a collaboration between ENEA, UNIBO and IRSN, an ASTEC code model of a generic IRIS reactor has been developed. The simulation of a DBA sequence involving the operation of all the passive safety systems of the generic IRIS has been carried out to investigate the code model capability in the prediction of the thermal-hydraulics characterizing an integral SMR adopting a passive mitigation strategy. The following simulation of 4 BDBAs sequences explores the applicability of Severe Accident Codes to advance SMRs in beyond-design and core-degradation conditions. The uncertainty affecting a code simulation can be estimated by using the method of Input Uncertainty Propagation, whose application has been realized through the RAVEN-ASTEC coupling and implementation on an HPC platform. This probabilistic methodology has been employed in a study of the uncertainty affecting the passive safety system operation in the DBA simulation of ASTEC, providing a further characterization of the thermal-hydraulics of this sequence. The application of the Uncertainty Quantification method to early core-melt phenomena has been investigated in the framework of a BEPU analysis of the ASTEC simulation of the QUENCH test-6 experiment. A possible solution to the encountered challenges has been proposed through the application of a Limit Surface search algorithm.

Integrating Machine Learning Paradigms for Predictive Maintenance in the Fourth Industrial Revolution era

In the last decade, manufacturing companies have been facing two significant challenges. First, digitalization imposes adopting Industry 4.0 technologies and allows creating smart, connected, self-aware, and self-predictive factories. Second, the attention on sustainability imposes to evaluate and reduce the impact of the implemented solutions from economic and social points of view. In manufacturing companies, the maintenance of physical assets assumes a critical role. Increasing the reliability and the availability of production systems leads to the minimization of systems’ downtimes; In addition, the proper system functioning avoids production wastes and potentially catastrophic accidents. Digitalization and new ICT technologies have assumed a relevant role in maintenance strategies. They allow assessing the health condition of machinery at any point in time. Moreover, they allow predicting the future behavior of machinery so that maintenance interventions can be planned, and the useful life of components can be exploited until the time instant before their fault. This dissertation provides insights on Predictive Maintenance goals and tools in Industry 4.0 and proposes a novel data acquisition, processing, sharing, and storage framework that addresses typical issues machine producers and users encounter. The research elaborates on two research questions that narrow down the potential approaches to data acquisition, processing, and analysis for fault diagnostics in evolving environments. The research activity is developed according to a research framework, where the research questions are addressed by research levers that are explored according to research topics. Each topic requires a specific set of methods and approaches; however, the overarching methodological approach presented in this dissertation includes three fundamental aspects: the maximization of the quality level of input data, the use of Machine Learning methods for data analysis, and the use of case studies deriving from both controlled environments (laboratory) and real-world instances.

Metilazione del DNA e Trapianto Allogenico di Cellule Staminali Emopoietiche

Il trapianto di cellule staminali emopoietiche rappresenta la terapia di scelta per numerose patologie ematologiche. Tuttavia, la mortalità da trapianto (non relapse mortality-NRM), ha limitato per lungo tempo il suo utilizzo in pazienti di età >65 anni. L’età non può più essere considerata una controindicazione assoluta al trapianto e il suo utilizzo in fasce di età un tempo ritenute non idonee è in sensibile aumento. La NRM è legata a tre ordini di complicanze: immunologiche (malattia del trapianto contro l’ospite, Graft versus-Host Disease -GVHD-), infettive e tossiche. La tossicità d’organo è direttamente correlata alla intensità del condizionamento che quindi viene ridotta in caso di comorbidità e nel paziente anziano. Tuttavia, ridurre l’intensità del condizionamento significa anche aumentare il rischio di ripresa della malattia ematologica di base e quindi tale aggiustamento deve essere fatto in funzione di indici di invecchiamento e di comorbidità, al fine di non ridurre la potenzialità curativa del trapianto. Per valutare le comorbidità abbiamo uno score altamente predittivo (Hematopoietic Cell Transplant-Comorbidity Index, di Sorror), mentre per valutare l’invecchiamento c’è una grande necessità clinica di marcatori innovativi di età biologica. Il presente lavoro ha l’obiettivo di valutare, nei pazienti sottoposti a trapianto allogenico di cellule staminali emopoietiche per tutte le indicazioni ematologiche, lo stato di metilazione del DNA, indice di età biologica. Lo scopo è di correlare l’epigenoma al rischio trapiantologico del singolo individuo.

Development of a numerical platform for the modeling and optimal control of liquid metal flows

The main purpose of this work is to develop a numerical platform for the turbulence modeling and optimal control of liquid metal flows. Thanks to their interesting thermal properties, liquid metals are widely studied as coolants for heat transfer applications in the nuclear context. However, due to their low Prandtl numbers, the standard turbulence models commonly used for coolants as air or water are inadequate. Advanced turbulence models able to capture the anisotropy in the flow and heat transfer are then necessary. In this thesis, a new anisotropic four-parameter turbulence model is presented and validated. The proposed model is based on explicit algebraic models and solves four additional transport equations for dynamical and thermal turbulent variables. For the validation of the model, several flow configurations are considered for different Reynolds and Prandtl numbers, namely fully developed flows in a plane channel and cylindrical pipe, and forced and mixed convection in a backward-facing step geometry. Since buoyancy effects cannot be neglected in liquid metals-cooled fast reactors, the second aim of this work is to provide mathematical and numerical tools for the simulation and optimization of liquid metals in mixed and natural convection. Optimal control problems for turbulent buoyant flows are studied and analyzed with the Lagrange multipliers method. Numerical algorithms for optimal control problems are integrated into the numerical platform and several simulations are performed to show the robustness, consistency, and feasibility of the method.

Applicazioni tecnologiche e nuovi metodi di valutazione della performance negli sport acquatici

Nello sport di alto livello l’uso della tecnologia ha raggiunto un ruolo di notevole importanza per l’analisi e la valutazione della prestazione. Negli ultimi anni sono emerse nuove tecnologie e sono migliorate quelle pre-esistenti (i.e. accelerometri, giroscopi e software per l’analisi video) in termini di campionamento, acquisizione dati, dimensione dei sensori che ha permesso la loro “indossabilità” e l’inserimento degli stessi all’interno degli attrezzi sportivi. La tecnologia è sempre stata al servizio degli atleti come strumento di supporto per raggiungere l’apice dei risultati sportivi. Per questo motivo la valutazione funzionale dell’atleta associata all’uso di tecnologie si pone lo scopo di valutare i miglioramenti degli atleti misurando la condizione fisica e/o la competenza tecnica di una determinata disciplina sportiva. L’obiettivo di questa tesi è studiare l’utilizzo delle applicazioni tecnologiche e individuare nuovi metodi di valutazione della performance in alcuni sport acquatici. La prima parte (capitoli 1-5), si concentra sulla tecnologia prototipale chiamata E-kayak e le varie applicazioni nel kayak di velocità. In questi lavori è stata verificata l’attendibilità dei dati forniti dal sistema E-kayak con i sistemi presenti in letteratura. Inoltre, sono stati indagati nuovi parametri utili a comprendere il modello di prestazione del paddler. La seconda parte (capitolo 6), si riferisce all’analisi cinematica della spinta verticale del pallanuotista, attraverso l’utilizzo della video analisi 2D, per l’individuazione delle relazioni Forza-velocità e Potenza-velocità direttamente in acqua. Questo studio pilota, potrà fornire indicazioni utili al monitoraggio e condizionamento di forza e potenza da svolgere direttamente in acqua. Infine la terza parte (capitoli 7-8), si focalizza sull’individuazione della sequenza di Fibonacci (sequenza divina) nel nuoto a stile libero e a farfalla. I risultati di questi studi suggeriscono che il ritmo di nuotata tenuto durante le medie/lunghe distanze gioca un ruolo chiave. Inoltre, il livello di autosomiglianza (self-similarity) aumenta con la tecnica del nuoto.

Towards automation of constellation management with analytical models for collision avoidance

The growing interest for constellation of small, less expensive satellites is bringing space junk and traffic management to the attention of space community. At the same time, the continuous quest for more efficient propulsion systems put the spotlight on electric (low thrust) propulsion as an appealing solution for collision avoidance. Starting with an overview of the current techniques for conjunction assessment and avoidance, we then highlight the possible problems when a low thrust propulsion is used. The need for accurate propagation model shows up from the conducted simulations. Thus, aiming at propagation models with low computational burden, we study the available models from the literature and propose an analytical alternative to improve propagation accuracy. The model is then tested in the particular case of a tangential maneuver. Results show that the proposed solution significantly improve on state of the art methods and is a good candidate to be used in collision avoidance operations. For instance to propagate satellite uncertainty or optimizing avoidance maneuver when conjunction occurs within few (3-4) orbits from measurements time.

Deep space orbit determination and guidance of the LICIACube microsatellite mission

Recently, the JPL's MarCO mission demonstrated that these probes are also mature enough to be employed in the deep space, even though with the limitations related to the employed commercial components. Currently, other deep space CubeSats are planned either as stand-alone missions or as companions of a traditional large probe. Therefore, developing a dedicated navigation suite is crucial to reaching the mission's goals, considering the limitations of the onboard components compared to typical deep space missions. In this framework, the LICIACube mission represents an ideal candidate test-bench, as it performs a flyby of the Didymos asteroid system subject to a strong position, epochs, and pointing requirements. This mission will also allow us to infer the capabilities of such microsatellites and highlight their limitations compared with the benefits of a lighter design and tailoring efforts. In this work, the OD and guidance methods and tools adopted for classical deep space missions have been tailored for the CubeSat applications and validated through extensive analyses. In addition, navigation procedures and interfaces have been designed in view of the operations foreseen in late 2022. The pre-launch covariance analysis has been performed to assess the mission's feasibility for the nominal trajectory and its associated uncertainties, based on conservative assumptions on the main parameters. Extensive sensitivity analyses have been carried out to understand the main mission parameters affecting the performance and to demonstrate the robustness of the designed trajectory and operation schedule in fulfilling the mission requirements. The developed system was also stressed by tuning the models to access different reconstruction methods for the maneuvers. The analysis demonstrated the feasibility of the LICIACube mission navigation in compliance with the mission requirements, compatible with the limited resources available, both in space and on the ground.

Towards cheaper, safer and low environmental impact materials for energy storage devices: natural resources-derived carbon based electrodes and aqueous electrolytes for supercapacitors

The growing market of electrical cars, portable electronics, photovoltaic systems..etc. requires the development of efficient, low-cost, and low environmental impact energy storage devices (ESDs) including batteries and supercapacitors.. Due to their extended charge-discharge cycle, high specific capacitance, and power capabilities supercapacitors are considered among the most attractive ESDs. Over the last decade, research and development in supercapacitor technology have accelerated: thousands of articles have been published in the literature describing the electrochemical properties of the electrode materials and electrolyte in addition to separators and current collectors. Carbon-based supercapacitor electrodes materials have gained increasing attention due to their high specific surface area, good electrical conductivity, and excellent stability in harsh environments, as well as other characteristics. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in activated carbon derived from low-cost abundant sources such as biomass for supercapacitor electrode materials. Also, particular attention was given to a major challenging issue concerning the substitution of organic solutions currently used as electrolytes due to their highest electrochemical stability window even though their high cost, toxicity, and flammability. In this regard, the main objective of this thesis is to investigate the performances of supercapacitors using low cost abundant safe, and low environmental impact materials for electrodes and electrolytes. Several prototypes were constructed and tested using natural resources through optimization of the preparation of appropriate carbon electrodes using agriculture by-products waste or coal (i.e. Argan shell or Anthracite from Jerrada). Such electrodes were tested using several electrolyte formulations (aqueous and water in salt electrolytes) beneficing their non-flammability, lower cost, and environmental impact; the characteristics that provide a promising opportunity to design safer, inexpensive, and environmentally friendly devices compared to organic electrolytes.

I nuovi operatori del mondo sportivo e la tutela della salute nella dimensione dei moderni servizi di welfare

Lo studio mira ad individuare i passaggi salienti dell’evoluzione dello sport inteso come strumento di salute e benessere preventivo, per rinvenire le manifestazioni di questo concetto, con l’obiettivo precipuo di fare emergere l’ossatura legislativa in evoluzione su cui impostare la transizione del sistema delle attività motorie. Partendo dallo studio del dato normativo e giurisprudenziale e con un’ampia analisi dottrinale sullo sfondo, lo studio descrive l’evoluzione legislativa sul tema poggiandosi su considerazioni e risultati di indagini sociologiche e farmacologiche. La creazione della Società Sport e Salute S.p.a. e di un Dipartimento per lo sport ha permesso un’azione diretta al sostegno delle organizzazioni sportive di base e mirata alla promozione di piani per l’implementazione dei corretti stili di vita. Il d.lgs. 38/2021 contiene una serie di norme volte alla valorizzazione dell’importanza anche territoriale degli enti sportivi, che possono favorire questi e i loro partners privati nell’affidamento degli impianti. La nuova figura professionale del chinesiologo rappresenta lo strumento centrale per il rilancio degli enti sportivi, in quanto capace di organizzare nuovi servizi paralleli allo sport e fondamentali in ottica educativa preventiva. L’accresciuta rilevanza del concetto di work-life balance spinge le imprese alla creazione di nuove politiche di welfare per i lavoratori attraverso investimenti per la riqualificazione dell’impiantistica, in modo da favorire gli enti che li gestiscono collaborando per offrire maggiori servizi anche al territorio. Il legislatore ha creato uno strato normativo volto a permettere un’azione diretta dello Stato nella promozione dello sport sociale e volto all’implementazione dei corretti stili di vita. È ora possibile teorizzare un modello di ente che offra una nuova tipologia di servizi da erogare all’interno di moderni impianti, riqualificati grazie al supporto di imprese che vedono le associazioni sportive come presidi per la salute dei lavoratori, favorendo il benessere collettivo oltre che la propria immagine.

Simulation of optical observables for space missions to small bodies

The navigation of deep space spacecraft requires accurate measurement of the probe’s state and attitude with respect to a body whose ephemerides may not be known with good accuracy. The heliocentric state of the spacecraft is estimated through radiometric techniques (ranging, Doppler, and Delta-DOR), while optical observables can be introduced to improve the uncertainty in the relative position and attitude with respect to the target body. In this study, we analyze how simulated optical observables affect the estimation of parameters in an orbit determination problem, considering the case of the ESA’s Hera mission towards the binary asteroid system composed of Didymos and Dimorphos. To this extent, a shape model and a photometric function are used to create synthetic onboard camera images. Then, using a stereophotoclinometry technique on some of the simulated images, we create a database of maplets that describe the 3D geometry of the surface around a set of landmarks. The matching of maplets with the simulated images provides the optical observables, expressed as pixel coordinates in the camera frame, which are fed to an orbit determination filter to estimate a certain number of solve-for parameters. The noise introduced in the output optical observables by the image processing can be quantified using as a metric the quality of the residuals, which is used to fine-tune the maplet-matching parameters. In particular, the best results are obtained when using small maplets, with high correlation coefficients and occupation factors.

Low carbon systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.

Valutazione cinematica complessiva, in vivo e sotto carico, di un modello protesico di caviglia a 3 componenti.

Nonostante le importanti ricadute che gli impianti protesici di caviglia hanno nella qualità della vita dei pazienti che si sottopongono ad intervento di sostituzione articolare, le reali proprietà biomeccaniche e cinematiche in-vivo e sotto carico degli impianti protesici sono state scarsamente studiate e descritte in letteratura. Lo scopo di questa trattazione è quella di valutare la cinematica protesica complessiva, in vivo, attraverso l’utilizzo dell’Analisi Radiostereometrica model-based (MB-RSA) e di ulteriori metodiche clinico-strumentali. La valutazione cinematica è stata permessa dall’analisi della posizione degli impianti attraverso la MB-RSA. Tra gli obiettivi secondari, i pazienti sono stati valutati clinicamente mediante AOFAS Ankle-Hindfoot score e SF-36, mediante full-body gait analysis con sensori inerziali e valutazione posturale-stabilometrica mediante Y Balance Test e workstation dedicata Delos DPPS. I pazienti sottoposti ad iter completo con valutazione clinica e strumentale a fine follow-up sono risultati 18 (2 drop-out). Il ROM complessivo a catena cinetica chiusa ha evidenziato una dorsi-plantarflessione complessiva media di 19.84°. Gli score clinici hanno mostrato tutti un netto miglioramento nel post-operatorio. La gait analysis ha evidenziato uno schema del passo composto dai tre principali spike e compatibile con schemi fisiologici. Dal punto di vista cinematico, i risultati angolari MB-RSA ricavati durante questo lavoro di tesi evidenziano tutti e 6 i gradi di libertà, dato coerente con la mobilità di una caviglia nativa. Valori di articolarità differenti sono stati registrati mediante sensori inerziali. Infine, in una valutazione cinematica complessiva, le possibili implicazioni sul bilanciamento posturale e propriocettivo presente nelle caviglie artrosiche e successivamente sottoposte a sostituzione protesica totale sono ampiamente descritte e discusse. I dati raccolti in questo lavoro di tesi rappresentano il risultato di una valutazione cinematica complessiva, e potranno aiutare a definire una tipologia di soggetto artrosico in cui i risultati siano verosimilmente migliori ed eventualmente a migliorare design e strumentari futuri.

Analysis of technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech) in the perspective of climate change

The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.

Sustainable exploitation of offshore renewable energy sources

Energy transition is the response of humankind to the concerning effects of fossil fuels depletion, climate change and energy insecurity, and calls for a deep penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems and industrial processes. Despite the high potentials, low impacts and long-term availability, RESs present some limits which need to be overcome, such as the strong variability and difficult predictability, which result in scarce reliability and difficult applicability in steady-state processes. Some technological solutions relate to energy storage systems, equipment electrification and hybrid systems deployment, thus accomplishing distributed generation even in remote sites as offshore. However, all of these actions cannot disregard sustainability, which represents a founding principle for any project, bringing together economics, reliability and environmental protection. To entail sustainability in RESs-based innovative projects, previous knowledge and tools are often not tailored or miss the novel objectives. This research proposes three methodological approaches, bridging the gaps. The first contribute adapts literature-based indicators of inherent safety and energy efficiency to capture the specificities of novel process plants and hybrid systems. Minor case studies dealing with novel P2X processes exemplify the application of these novel indicators. The second method guides the conceptual design of hybrid systems for the valorisation of a RES in a site, by considering the sustainability performances of alternative design options. Its application is demonstrated through the comparison of two offshore sites where wave energy can be valorised. Finally, “OHRES”, a comprehensive tool for the sustainable optimisation of hybrid renewable energy systems is proposed. “OHRES” hinges on the exploitation of multiple RESs, by converting ex-post sustainability indicators into discrimination markers screening a large number of possible system configurations, according to the location features. Five case studies demonstrate “OHRES” versatility in the sustainable valorisation of multiple RESs.

Synergies among safety and security in the prevention of major accidents related to dangerous substances

Historical evidence shows that chemical, process, and Oil&Gas facilities where dangerous substances are stored or handled are target of deliberate malicious attacks (security attacks) aiming at interfering with normal operations. Physical attacks and cyber-attacks may generate events with consequences on people, property, and the surrounding environment that are comparable to those of major accidents caused by safety-related causes. The security aspects of these facilities are commonly addressed using Security Vulnerability/Risk Assessment (SVA/SRA) methodologies. Most of these methodologies are semi-quantitative and non-systematic approaches that strongly rely on expert judgment, leading to security assessments that are not reproducible. Moreover, they do not consider the synergies with the safety domain. The present 3-year research is aimed at filling the gap outlined by providing knowledge on security attacks, as well as rigorous and systematic methods supporting existing SVA/SRA studies suitable for the chemical, process, and Oil&Gas industry. The different nature of cyber and physical attacks resulted in the development of different methods for the two domains. The first part of the research was devoted to the development and statistical analysis of security databases that allowed to develop new knowledge and lessons learnt on security threats. Based on the obtained background, a Bow-Tie based procedure and two reverse-HazOp based methodologies were developed as hazard identification approaches for physical and cyber threats respectively. To support the quantitative estimation of the security risk, a quantitative procedure based on the Bayesian Network was developed allowing to calculate the probability of success of physical security attacks. All the developed methods have been applied to case studies addressing chemical, process and Oil&Gas facilities (offshore and onshore) proving the quality of the results that can be achieved in improving site security. Furthermore, the outcomes achieved allow to step forward in developing synergies and promoting integration among safety and security management.