Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

The transition of care from fertility specialists to obstetricians: maternal adjustment and postpartum depressive symptoms.

Aim: This study examines the transition from fertility to obstetrical care of women who conceived through IVF. Materials & methods: 33 women filled out questionnaires before IVF, during pregnancy and after birth on infertility stress, maternal adjustment and depressive symptoms. During pregnancy, they participated in an interview about their emotional experiences regarding the transition. Responses were sorted into three categories: Autonomy, Dependence and Avoidance. Results: Exploratory results show that 51.5% of women had no difficulties making the transition (Autonomy), 21.2% had become dependent (Dependence) and 27.3% had distanced themselves from the specialists (Avoidance). Women who became dependent had more trouble adjusting to motherhood and more depressive symptoms. Conclusion: Difficulty making the transition may be linked to decreased ability to adjust to motherhood and more postpartum depressive symptoms.

Bone microarchitecture assessed by TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures independent of bone density: The manitoba study.

The measurement of BMD by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the "gold standard" for diagnosing osteoporosis but does not directly reflect deterioration in bone microarchitecture. The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel gray-level texture measurement that can be extracted from DXA images, correlates with 3D parameters of bone microarchitecture. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of lumbar spine TBS to predict future clinical osteoporotic fractures. A total of 29,407 women 50 years of age or older at the time of baseline hip and spine DXA were identified from a database containing all clinical results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Health service records were assessed for the incidence of nontraumatic osteoporotic fracture codes subsequent to BMD testing (mean follow-up 4.7 years). Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Osteoporotic fractures were identified in 1668 (5.7%) women, including 439 (1.5%) spine and 293 (1.0%) hip fractures. Significantly lower spine TBS and BMD were identified in women with major osteoporotic, spine, and hip fractures (all p < 0.0001). Spine TBS and BMD predicted fractures equally well, and the combination was superior to either measurement alone (p < 0.001). Spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures and provides information that is independent of spine and hip BMD. Combining the TBS trabecular texture index with BMD incrementally improves fracture prediction in postmenopausal women. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Photodynamic induced uptake of liposomal doxorubicin to rat lung tumors parallels tumor vascular density.

BACKGROUND: Visudyne®-mediated photodynamic therapy (PDT) at low drug/light conditions has shown to selectively enhance the uptake of liposomal doxorubicin in subpleural localized sarcoma tumors grown on rodent lungs without causing morphological alterations of the lung. The present experiments explore the impact of low-dose PDT on liposomal doxorubicin (Liporubicin™) uptake to different tumor types grown on rodent lungs. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three groups of Fischer rats underwent subpleural generation of sarcoma, mesothelioma, or adenocarcinoma tumors on the left lung. At least five animals of each group (sarcoma, n = 5; mesothelioma, n = 7; adenocarcinoma, n = 5) underwent intraoperative low-dose (10 J/cm(2) at 35 mW/cm(2) ) PDT with 0.0625 mg/kg Visudyne® of the tumor and the lower lobe. This was followed by intravenous (IV) administration of 400 µg Liporubicin™. After a circulation time of 60 min, the tumor-bearing lung was processed for HPLC analyses. At least five animals per group underwent the same procedure but without PDT (sarcoma, n = 5; mesothelioma, n = 5; adenocarcinoma, n = 6). Five untreated animals per group underwent CD31 immunostaining of their tumors with histomorphometrical assessment of the tumor vascularization. RESULTS: Low-dose PDT significantly enhanced Liporubicin™ uptake to all tumor types (sarcoma, P = 0.0007; mesothelioma, P = 0.001; adenocarcinoma, P = 0.02) but not to normal lung tissue compared to IV drug administration alone. PDT led to a significantly increased ratio of tumor to lung tissue drug uptake for all three tumor types (P < 0.05). However, the tumor drug uptake varied between tumor types and paralleled tumor vascular density. The vascular density was significantly higher in sarcoma than in adenocarcinoma (P < 0.001) and mesothelioma (P < 0.001), whereas there was no significant difference between adenocarcinoma and mesothelioma. CONCLUSION: Low-dose Visudyne®-mediated PDT selectively enhances the uptake of systemically administered liposomal doxorubicin in tumors without affecting the drug uptake to normal lung. However, drug uptake varied significantly between tumor types and paralleled tumor vascular density.

The social transition of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the African region: evidence from three cross-sectional surveys in the Seychelles.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and several cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVRFs) and to assess whether this association has changed over a 15-year observation period. METHODS: Three independent population-based surveys of CVRFs were conducted in representative samples of all adults aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles, a small island state located east to Kenya, in 1989 (N=1081), 1994 (N=1067) and 2004 (N=1255). RESULTS: Among men, current smoking and heavy drinking were more prevalent in the low versus the high SES group, and obesity was less prevalent. The socioeconomic gradient in diabetes reversed over the study period from lower prevalence in the low versus the high SES group to higher prevalence in the low SES group. Hypercholesterolemia was less prevalent in the low versus the high SES group in 1989 but the prevalence was similar in the two groups in 2004. Hypertension showed no consistent socioeconomic pattern. Among women, the SES gradient in smoking tended to reverse over time from lower prevalence in the low SES group to lower prevalence in the high SES group. Obesity and diabetes were more common in the low versus the high SES group over the study period. Heavy drinking, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were not socially patterned among women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of several CVRFs was higher in low versus high SES groups in a rapidly developing country in the African region, and an increase of the burden of these CVRFs in the most disadvantaged groups of the population was observed over the 15 years study period.

Density of Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Domestic and Wild Animal Shelters in an Area of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to determine the association of sand flies with the presence of domestic and wild animals in the peridomiciliary area. The sand flies were collected using direct aspiration and CDC light traps placed in animal shelters. The results suggest that different sand flies species have different behavioral characteristics in an apparent preference for animal baits and that Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lu. evandroi were the most eclectic species regarding their biotope choice. Lu. longipalpis showed a distinct preference for horses and Lu. evandroi for armadillos.

Changes in the Sexual Dimorphism of Triatominae in the Transition from Natural to Artificial Habitats

A shift from large to small average sizes was observed in Triatoma infestans and Rhodnius domesticus between field and domestic (or laboratory) conditions of life. It was more pronounced in the female specimens, leading to a subsequent reduction of sexual size dimorphism. This feature is discussed in terms of genetic and populational changes occurring from natural to artificial habitats, in particular those related to population densities. Sexual size dimorphism is then recommended as a new character to be used in the study of species of Triatominae adapting to domestic ecotopes.

Bloodmeal microfilariae density and the uptake and establishment of Wuchereria bancrofti infections in Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti

The relationship between ingestion of microfilariae (mf), production of infective larvae (L3) and mf density in human blood has been suggested as an important determinant in the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis. Here we assess the role of these factors in determining the competence of a natural vector Culex quinquefasciatus and a non vector Aedes aegypti to transmit Wuchereria bancrofti. Mosquitoes were infected via a membrane feeding procedure. Both mosquito species ingested more than the expected number of microfilariae (concentrating factor was 1.28 and 1.81 for Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti, respectively) but Cx. quinquefasciatus ingested around twice as many mf as Ae. aegypti because its larger blood meal size. Ae. aegypti showed a faster mf migration capacity compared to Cx. quinquefasciatus but did not allow parasite maturation under our experimental conditions. Similar proportions of melanized parasites were observed in Ae. aegypti (2.4%) and Cx. quinquefasciatus (2.1%). However, no relationship between rate of infection and melanization was observed. We conclude that in these conditions physiological factors governing parasite development in the thorax may be more important in limiting vectorial competence than the density of mf ingested.

Effects of flooding and temperature on Aedes albifasciatus development time and larval density in two rain pools at Buenos Aires University City

Aedes albifasciatus is a floodwater mosquito that breeds in temporary waters. This semi-domestic species, widely distributed in Argentina, is a competent vector of the western equine encephalitis. The present study was carried out in two rain pools of the city of Buenos Aires, from April 1998 through March 1999. Samples were taken twice a week during the cold season and daily during the warmer months, starting from October. Immature mosquitoes were collected with a dipper, being the number of dippers proportional to the flooded area. The estimated rainfall thresholds to initiate cohorts of Ae. albifasciatus were: 16-17 mm in the fall-winter period, 25 mm in the spring, and 30 mm in the summer. The development time of the different cohorts and the mean air temperature of their respective periods were estimated in all seasons, ranging from six days (at 24ºC) to 32 days (at 13ºC). The equation that best expresses the relationship between development time and mean air temperature is dt =166,27.e-0,1435.T (R²=0,92). Significantly shorter development times were recorded for larvae of the first three stages as compared to the fourth larval stage and pupae.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Invasion and fixation of sex-reversal genes.

We simulated a meta-population with random dispersal among demes but local mating within demes to investigate conditions under which a dominant female-determining gene W, with no individual selection advantage, can invade and become fixed in females, changing the population from male to female heterogamety. Starting with one mutant W in a single deme, the interaction of sex ratio selection and random genetic drift causes W to be fixed among females more often than a comparable neutral mutation with no influence on sex determination, even when YY males have slightly reduced viability. Meta-population structure and interdeme selection can also favour the fixation of W. The reverse transition from female to male heterogamety can also occur with higher probability than for a comparable neutral mutation. These results help to explain the involvement of sex-determining genes in the evolution of sex chromosomes and in sexual selection and speciation.