Proyecto de implantación de viñedos

El presente documento expone la idea de crear una explotación vitícola de gran escala en la Provincia de Mendoza. Para su implementación se ha previsto la creación de una empresa constituida bajo la forma jurídica de una Sociedad Anónima (S.A.). La misma, será la encargada y responsable de la gestión y ejecución del proyecto. El objetivo del proyecto es crear una alternativa de inversión para inversionistas extranjeros. Para ello se propone la creación de una explotación de 55 hectáreas abocada a la producción de uvas Malbec de primera calidad, pensada para la elaboración de vinos Premium, Superpremium e Ícono. Habiendo estudiado los microclimas de las diversas zonas productoras de este varietal en todo el país, se decidió localizar el proyecto en la Provincia de Mendoza, concretamente en la zona del Valle de Uco. Para lograr el objetivo planteado se ha confeccionado un plan completo de implantación y laboreo de campo anual que asegura la obtención de la óptima calidad perseguida en la materia prima. Al respecto, se han identificado como requisitos esenciales de calidad para la uva Malbec la concentración del fruto en azúcares, ácidos, polifenoles y aromas. Sobre dichos aspectos críticos se ha trazado un plan de producción tendiente a satisfacer el mercado de uva Malbec de alta gama.

Producción y comercialización de cubos y pellets de alfalfa : un análisis desde la nueva economía institucional

El desarrollo de los mercados en el ámbito global, hace pensar en la actualidad sobre la existencia de un consumidor global, preocupado por demandar no sólo calidad, sino también seguridad en los productos que consume. Esta nueva característica de los consumidores, abre muchas posibilidades para el desarrollo de bienes y servicios con características que aporten una cuota de valor diferencial, sobre la cual resulte posible sustentar estrategias de negocios que hagan hincapié en esta diferenciación. Este tipo de estrategias, por lo general, se encontrarán sustentadas por productos cuyos procesos involucran activos de elevada especificidad y, en este punto, se torna importante poseer un eficiente diseño organizacional que los proteja de grandes pérdidas de valor. En lo que respecta al mercado de pellets y cubos de alfalfa en particular, donde se proyecta una demanda global creciente, y en el que la Argentina tiene ventajas comparativas a partir de su enorme potencial para el desarrollo de alfalfares de calidad premium, que le permitirían obtener un producto con un diferencial de calidad reconocido en el mercado internacional, surge como interrogante a investigar, si el negocio de pellets y cubos de alfalfa en la Argentina encuentra fortalezas para poder aprovechar las oportunidades que ofrece el mercado mundial y cuáles son las claves a considerar para contar con un diseño organizacional que permita el desarrollo de este negocio. La metodología de estudio consistió, por un lado, en una recopilación de información de fuentes primarias y secundarias, para estudiar el mercado en general y el ambiente comercial en particular, y por otro, en el desarrollo de un análisis a partir del Modelo de Tres Vías de Joskow. A partir del estudio se concluyó que para aprovechar las oportunidades en este negocio, es necesario contar con un diseño organizacional en el que coexistan diferentes formas de gobernancia. De esta forma, y con el objeto de proteger a los activos específicos en su conjunto, se observó que para la producción es necesario adoptar una estructura de gobernancia que tendiera a la integración vertical, mientras que para la comercialización se debe combinar una estructura de gobernancia híbrida que contenga salvaguardas, cuando ésta se orienta al mercado externo, con una estructura de gobernancia regida por el mercado para cuando se comercialice dentro de la Argentina

Planktic foraminifera across the Cretaceous-Tertiary transition in the Antarctic Ocean

Three Antarctic Ocean K/T boundary sequences from ODP Site 738C on the Kerguelen Plateau, ODP Site, 752B on Broken Ridge and ODP Site 690C on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, have been analyzed for stratigraphic completeness and faunal turnover based on quantitative planktic foraminiferal studies. Results show that Site 738C, which has a laminated clay layer spanning the K/T boundary, is biostratigraphically complete with the earliest Tertiary Zones P0 and P1a present, but with short intrazonal hiatuses. Site 752B may be biostratigraphically complete and Site 690C has a hiatus at the K/T boundary with Zones P0 and P1a missing. Latest Cretaceous to earliest Tertiary planktic foraminiferal faunas from the Antarctic Ocean are cosmopolitan and similar to coeval faunas dominating in low, middle and northern high latitudes, although a few endemic species are present. This allows application of the current low and middle latitude zonation to Antarctic K/T boundary sequences. The most abundant endemic species is Chiloguembelina waiparaensis, which was believed to have evolved in the early Tertiary, but which apparently evolved as early as Chron 30N at Site 738C. Since this species is only rare in sediments of Site 690C in the Weddell Sea, this suggests that a watermass oceanographic barner may have existed between the Indian and Atlantic Antarctic Oceans. The cosmopolitan nature of the dominant fauna began during the last 200,000 to 300,000 years of the Cretaceous and continued at least 300,000 years into the Tertiary. This indicates a long-term environmental crisis that led to gradual elimination of specialized forms and takeover by generalists tolerant of wide ranging temperature, oxygen, salinity and nutrient conditions. A few thousand years before the K/T boundary these generalists gradually declined in abundance and species became generally dwarfed due to increased environmental stress. There is no evidence of a sudden mass killing of the Cretaceous fauna associated with a bolide impact at the K/T boundary. Instead, the already declining Cretaceous taxa gradually disappear in the early Danian and the opportunistic survivor taxa (Ch. waiparaensis and Guembelitria cretacea) increase in relative abundance coincident with the evolution of the first new Tertiary species.

Exchange Rate Stabilization and IMF High Interest Rate Policy: A Critical Reconsideration Using a Dynamic Model

This paper examines whether the IMF high interest rate policy was suitable for crisis-ridden East Asian economies. Using an "overshoot" model similar to that of Dornbusch's (1976), it shows that this sort of policy might cause an unnecessary deflationary adjusting process and have no effect on containing the real depreciation of exchange rates in the long run. The study also demonstrates that Thai economic data coincides quite well with the model presented here. Finally, it points out that the high interest policy itself might provoke high risk-premium, the existence of which, in turn, justifies the policy. This means that the policy has a self-fulfilling property. In conclusion, a "one-size-fits-all" adaptation of high interest rate policy in a currency crisis is very dangerous in general, and was inappropriate for East Asia. The desirable policy would have been to let currencies depreciate and keep interest rates stable.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Returns to migration : the role of educational attainment in rural Tanzania

Given the migration premium previously identified in an impact evaluation approach, this paper asks the question of why migration is not more prominent, given such high premium associated with it. Using long-term household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania, Kagera for the period 1991-2004, this study aims to answer this question by exploring the contribution of education in the migration premium. By separating migrants into those that moved out of original villages but remained within Kagera and those who left the region, this study finds that, in consumption, the return on investment in education is higher at both destinations. However, whilst the higher return on education fully explains the gains associated with migration within Kagera, it only partly explains those of external migration. These findings suggest that welfare opportunities are higher at the destination and that an individual's limited investment in education plays a major role in preventing short-distance migration from becoming a significant source of raising welfare, which is not the case for long-distance migration. While education plays a role, it appears that other mechanisms may prohibit rural agents from exploiting the arbitrage opportunity when they migrate to the destination at a great distance from the source.

Skill sorting and production chains : evidence from India

This study proposes a new mechanism that explains skill-sorting patterns and skill wage differentials across industries based on the length of the industry's production chain. A simple simultaneous production model shows that when the quality of intermediate inputs deteriorates rapidly along the production chains, high-skilled individuals choose to work in industries with shorter production chains because of higher returns to skill. I empirically confirm this skill-sorting pattern and these inter-industry skill wage differentials in India, where the quality of intermediate inputs is likely to degrade rapidly because of the high number of unskilled laborers, poor infrastructure, and less-advantaged technology. The results remain robust even when considering selection bias, alternative reasons for inter-industry skill wage differentials, and a different period. The results of this study have important implications when considering countries' industrial development patterns.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Evaluation of the trading development in the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market

The efficiency of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market in its first five and a half years is assessed in terms of volume, open interest and price. The continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. Its volume is strongly correlated to that of the Over The Counter (OTC) market, the amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial agents and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume in its clearing house. The hedging efficiency, measured through the ratio between the final open interest and the cleared volume, shows the lowest values for the Spanish base load futures as they are the most liquid contracts. The ex-post forward risk premium has diminished due to the learning curve and the effect of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. This market is quite less developed than the European leaders headquartered in Norway and Germany. Enrolment of more traders, mainly international energy companies, financial agents, energy intensive industries and renewable generation companies is desired. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains.

A study of four listed micro finance institutions

Compared to the size of the microfinance market, the number of Microfinance Institutions that are professionally ran like commercial banks is still scarce, and even more scarce are the MFI listed in public stock exchanges. This document focuses on four listed MFIs and reviews its business model and funding sources. The document also analyses the market price evolution of the listed shares and investigates whether investors are assigning a premium to the MFIs compared with its respective market indices. Keywords: Microfinance institutions, Micro-credits, Financial Institutions, Equity; Stock Exchange.

Sum Insured Determination for Cereal, Citrus and Vineyards in the Spanish Agricultural Insurance System.

In general, insurance is a form of risk management used to hedge against a contingent loss. The conventional definition is the equitable transfer of a risk of loss from one entity to another in exchange for a premium or a guaranteed and quantifiable small loss to prevent a large and possibly devastating loss being agricultural insurance a special line of property insurance. Agriculture insurance, as actually are designed in the Spanish scenario, were established in 1978. At the macroeconomic insurance studies scale, it is necessary to know a basic element for the insurance actuarial components: sum insured. When a new risk assessment has to be evaluated in the insurance framework, it is essential to determinate venture capital in the total Spanish agriculture. In this study, three different crops (cereal, citrus and vineyards) cases are showed to determinate sum insured as they are representative of the cases found in the Spanish agriculture. Crop sum insured is calculated by the product of crop surface, unit surface production and crop price insured. In the cereal case, winter as spring cereal sowing, represents the highest Spanish crop surface, above to 6 millions of hectares (ha). Meanwhile, the four citrus species (oranges, mandarins, lemons and grapefruits) occupied an extension just over 275.000 ha. On the other hand, vineyard target to wine process shows almost one million of ha in Spain.

Una metodología para analizar la accesibilidad al transporte y el riesgo de exclusión social

El artículo trata de los impactos de la implementación de un peaje cordón en el Área Metropolitana de Madrid (AMM). La accesibilidad es uno de los factores clave para evaluar los impactos. El análisis se centra en la comprensión de los diferentes factores que regulan el acceso a una red de carreteras metropolitanas. Siguiendo la literatura sobre el tema “Premium Network Spaces”, el peaje de acceso a una red de carreteras representa un coste de viaje añadido para el usuario que puede ver disminuir su accesibilidad a las redes de transporte. Los resultados muestran que la aplicación de un peaje cordón a las orbitales de Madrid (M40, por ejemplo) disminuye el acceso de las áreas metropolitanas más periféricas a las actividades sociales diarias, si no hay una alternativa de transporte público eficiente. En particular, el resultado principal revela que la zona nord del AMM sufre una disminución importante de accesibilidad por carretera debido a la falta de rutas alternativas. Sin embargo, la carga económica de una tarificación metropolitana afecta más a las personas menos calificadas y con menores ingresos localizadas en el sur del AMM, aunque esta parte de la Región Metropolitana ofrece recorridos alternativos por carreteras y una discreta oferta de transporte público. Las personas menos calificadas y con menores ingresos arriesgan una disminución de su movilidad y de su participación a actividades sociales (trabajo, compra, ocio). El resultado es clave para entender la relación entre el transporte y el riesgo de exclusión social en un contexto metropolitano.

Análisis experimental y por el método de los elementos finitos del estado de tensiones en uniones carpinteras de empalme de llave

In this research, the halved and tabled traditional timber scarf joint is analyzed. This joint consists in two end joint pieces usually subjected to tension. Initially, the study is discussed from an experimental point of view. In this way, 3 critical cross-sections are established (section of the notch, section of the horizontal plane and reduced section) and mechanical tests are performed to achieve the failure on each of critical sections by changing the geometry of the joint. The study is completed by developing a finite element model which allows verify experimental results and extend the analysis to other geometries. This model has to simulate the real behavior of the material which is being studied, so mechanical tests are performed to obtain the elastic constants and the coefficients of friction of the material. In the reduced section, an abrupt decrease of the effective cross-section takes place, and this effect is also experimentally analyzed. These tests indicate that a crack is initiated before the bending-tension failure occurs in the reduced section. The test material consists of wood of Pinus sylvestris L. coming from the “Valsaín´s Sawmill” (Segovia) with “premium quality” according to the nonstructural wood visual classification of sawmill. It is observed that initiation of a crack, in the mortise (bottom of reduced section), and shear stress concentration, at the initial part of the heel (beginning of horizontal plane), completely determine the mechanical behaviour of the joint, resulting in 3 failure modes: local compression failure in the section of the notch, shear failure in the horizontal plane, and failure of stresses concentration, mainly perpendicular to the grain tension, at the bottom of reduced section. The geometric optimization is obtained for halved and tabled traditional scarf joint, when the joint has made with similar properties of wood than tested specimens, for any height and width of the cross-section. It is considered the failure due to the initiation of a crack in reduced section, by applying a correction coefficient into the usual equation used to design the members subjected to both tension and bending. Therefore, it is possible to obtain, analytically, the design conditions to be met of the 3 critical cross-sections. According to the theoretical optimization, the tension strength of complete cross-section is reduced until 14%, when using this type of joint. The experimental optimization indicates even a greater reduction, until 6%. En el presente trabajo de investigación se analiza el comportamiento mecánico de las uniones tradicionales de empalme de llave, que consisten en dos piezas unidas por sus testas transmitiéndose entre ellas principalmente un esfuerzo de tracción. Inicialmente, el estudio se aborda desde un punto de vista experimental. De este modo, se establecen las 3 secciones críticas o de estudio (sección del encaje, sección rasante del cogote y sección reducida) y se realizan ensayos mecánicos, variando la geometría de la unión, para alcanzar la rotura en cada una de ellas. Se completa el estudio mediante la elaboración de un modelo por elementos finitos que permite verificar los resultados experimentales y ampliar el análisis a otras geometrías. Este modelo debe simular el comportamiento real del material objeto de estudio, por lo que se realizan ensayos para obtener las constantes elásticas y los coeficientes de rozamiento del mismo. También se analiza, experimentalmente, el efecto entalladura que reduce bruscamente la sección completa del tirante, estableciendo que el fallo por flexotracción en la sección reducida de la pieza, no llega a producirse por el inicio previo de una grieta. El material de ensayo consiste en madera de Pinus sylvestris L. (pino silvestre) procedente del Aserradero de Valsaín (Segovia) y de calidad “Extra” o “Primera” según la clasificación visual no estructural del aserradero. Se observa que el inicio de una grieta en la mortaja del rediente y la concentración de tensiones tangenciales en la parte inicial del cogote, determinan completamente el comportamiento mecánico de la unión, dando lugar a 3 modos distintos de rotura: fallo por compresión en la sección del encaje, fallo por cortante en la sección rasante y fallo por concentración de tensiones, principalmente tracciones perpendiculares, en el rebaje de la sección reducida. Se consigue optimizar geométricamente cualquier empalme de llave confeccionado con madera de características similares a la ensayada, para cualquier valor de la altura y de la anchura de la sección. Se considera el agotamiento en la sección reducida causado por el inicio de grieta, mediante la aplicación de un coeficiente corrector en la expresión habitual de agotamiento por flexotracción, en consecuencia, finalmente es posible obtener, de modo analítico, un valor del índice de agotamiento en cada una de las 3 secciones de estudio. La optimización teórica del empalme de llave indica que la capacidad resistente del tirante bruto se reduce al 14%, cuando se coloca este tipo de unión tradicional. Experimentalmente se obtiene, que, para la sección ensayada, la capacidad resistente del tirante bruto se reduce todavía más, llegando al 6%.

Analysis of the Iberian Power Forward Price Formation

The price formation of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market-the power futures market-starting in July 2006, is assessed until November 2011, through the evolution of the difference between forward and spot prices in the delivery period (“ex-post forward risk premium”) and the comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”). The premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (futures, Over-the-Counter and auctions for catering part of the last resort supplies). Since year 2011, the values are smaller due to regulatorily recognized prices for coal power plants. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The spreads built with prompt contracts tend also to be positive. The biggest ones are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity.