Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

Integrating Environmental Justice and Social-Ecological Resilience for Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Lessons from African American Communities on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay

This research concerns the conceptual and empirical relationship between environmental justice and social-ecological resilience as it relates to climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Two primary questions guided this work. First, what is the level of resilience and adaptive capacity for social-ecological systems that are characterized by environmental injustice in the face of climate change? And second, what is the role of an environmental justice approach in developing adaptation policies that will promote social-ecological resilience? These questions were investigated in three African American communities that are particularly vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rise on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, I found that in all three communities, religious faith and the church, rootedness in the landscape, and race relations were highly salient to community experience. The degree to which these common aspects of the communities have imparted adaptive capacity has changed over time. Importantly, a given social-ecological factor does not have the same effect on vulnerability in all communities; however, in all communities political isolation decreases adaptive capacity and increases vulnerability. This political isolation is at least partly due to procedural injustice, which occurs for a number of interrelated reasons. This research further revealed that while all stakeholders (policymakers, environmentalists, and African American community members) generally agree that justice needs to be increased on the Eastern Shore, stakeholder groups disagree about what a justice approach to adaptation would look like. When brought together at a workshop, however, these stakeholders were able to identify numerous challenges and opportunities for increasing justice. Resilience was assessed by the presence of four resilience factors: living with uncertainty, nurturing diversity, combining different types of knowledge, and creating opportunities for self-organization. Overall, these communities seem to have low resilience; however, there is potential for resilience to increase. Finally, I argue that the use of resilience theory for environmental justice communities is limited by the great breadth and depth of knowledge required to evaluate the state of the social-ecological system, the complexities of simultaneously promoting resilience at both the regional and local scale, and the lack of attention to issues of justice.

Influences of change strategies to achieve organizational flexibility: a system dynamics approach.

257 p.

Towards intelligent aquaculture. Development of an early Biological Warning System to monitor exposure to contaminants and fish welfare: from artificial vision to systems modelling

161 p.

Administración de recursos informáticos y control de proyectos mediante plataforma web en la compañía de construcción y consultoría civil SYSTEMS CIA. LTDA.

Ante el vertiginoso crecimiento de la competencia en el campo motiva la creación de una metodología para la Gestión de proyectos teniendo en cuenta las buenas prácticas disponibles a nivel mundial. El uso de TIC’s representará la forma de afrontar a la competencia que actualmente las empresas enfrentan, gestión de procesos, administración de recursos, generar responsabilidades y compromisos en los procesos con los que se llevan a cabo los proyectos marcarán un cambio en el cumplimiento de metas y objetivos. Tomando en cuenta lo anterior y luego de una evaluación a los procesos con los que se manejan actualmente los proyectos, se definirá una metodología para gestionar los proyectos, una vez definidos los procesos que van a intervenir, se abordará el tema de buscar la herramienta idónea para la administración de los proyectos vía Web, manteniendo el control de los mismos, generando un beneficio en lo referente al uso de los recursos con los que dispone la empresa. Generar indicadores de Gestión dentro de la herramienta seleccionada será una ventaja que se deberá tomar en consideración al momento de escoger la plataforma Web para llevar a cabo el control oportuno en el avance de los procesos. El uso de las TIC’s conjugado con una metodología adecuada, fomentará el desarrollo de las compañías logrando así poder planificar la gestión de los recursos: Humanos, Financieros y materiales, con sus respectivos ahorros en tiempo y dinero.

Microcantilever arrays functionalised with spiropyran photoactive moieties as systems to measure photo-induced surface stress changes

[EN] Herein we investigate the feasibility of detecting photo-induced surface stress changes using the deflection response of cantilevers. For this purpose, silicon microcantilevers have been functionalised with spiropyran photochromic molecules, using both a monolayer and a polymeric brushes approach. Uponultraviolet light irradiation, the spiropyran unit is converted to the merocyanine form due to the photo-induced cleavage of the Cspiro-O bond. The two forms of the molecule have dramatically different charge,polarity and molecular conformations. This makes spiropyrans an ideal system to study the correlation between photo-induced molecular changes and corresponding changes in surface stress. Our investigations include monitoring the changes in static cantilever deflection, and consequently, surface stress of the spiropyran functionalised cantilevers on exposure to ultraviolet light. Cantilever deflection data reveals that ultraviolet induced conformational changes in the spiropyran moiety cause a change incompressive surface stress and this varies with the type of functionalisation method implemented. The change in surface stress response from the spiropyran polymer brushes functionalised cantilevers gives an average surface stress change of 98 Nm−1(n = 24) while the spiropyran monolayer coated cantilevers have an average surface stress change of about 446 Nm−1(n = 8) upon irradiation with UV light.

Usability Requirements for Complex Cyber-Physical Systems in a Totally Networked World

Part 7: Cyber-Physical Systems

Composite Indicators for the Family Change: ‘Familism' vs ‘Individualism' in the International Context

The aim of this paper is to propose a composite indicator to measure ‘familism’, conformed by two main dimensions: values on one hand (duty to take care of the family, importance of the family, sacrifices for the family...) and behaviours, on the other (predominance of married couples instead of cohabitant couples, high frequency of contact among members, family support…). In contrast to this idea of ‘familism’ we find that of individualism, that defends the independence of family members, tolerance to new family models, cohabitation instead of marriage,… , that implies less frequency of interaction among relatives and more governmental intervention towards children and elderly care. We observe that a higher degree of ‘familism’ does not always match with a lower degree of individualism when both dimensions, attitudes and behaviours, are considered. For instance, we find countries which are individualist in values but not in behaviours (such as Spain), whilst others, such as Japan, are ‘familist’ both in values and behaviours and finally, others, such as Sweden, are individualist with regards to both perspectives. We propose two different methodological approaches to the question. First, we use microdata from the Family, Work and Gender Roles module of the International Social Survey Programme-ISSP (years 1994, 2002 and 2012), in which 45 countries have participated. Information for the three rounds is collected for 17 countries with very different family values and welfare systems (for instance, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom or the United States). From this data source, we create a first index on familism that can be related to individual sociodemographic characteristics. Second, we complete it through the inclusion of macro data (such as the divorce rate per country), in order to refine comparison at a country level by adding new variables to the previous index.

Composite Indicators for the Family Change: ‘Familism' vs ‘Individualism' in the International Context

The aim of this paper is to propose a composite indicator to measure ‘familism’, conformed by two main dimensions: values on one hand (duty to take care of the family, importance of the family, sacrifices for the family...) and behaviours, on the other (predominance of married couples instead of cohabitant couples, high frequency of contact among members, family support…). In contrast to this idea of ‘familism’ we find that of individualism, that defends the independence of family members, tolerance to new family models, cohabitation instead of marriage,… , that implies less frequency of interaction among relatives and more governmental intervention towards children and elderly care. We observe that a higher degree of ‘familism’ does not always match with a lower degree of individualism when both dimensions, attitudes and behaviours, are considered. For instance, we find countries which are individualist in values but not in behaviours (such as Spain), whilst others, such as Japan, are ‘familist’ both in values and behaviours and finally, others, such as Sweden, are individualist with regards to both perspectives. We propose two different methodological approaches to the question. First, we use microdata from the Family, Work and Gender Roles module of the International Social Survey Programme-ISSP (years 1994, 2002 and 2012), in which 45 countries have participated. Information for the three rounds is collected for 17 countries with very different family values and welfare systems (for instance, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom or the United States). From this data source, we create a first index on familism that can be related to individual sociodemographic characteristics. Second, we complete it through the inclusion of macro data (such as the divorce rate per country), in order to refine comparison at a country level by adding new variables to the previous index.

Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Does Landscape Context Affect Habitat Value? The Importance of Seascape Ecology in Back-reef Systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.

Incentive based policies on climate change: taxes and tradable emssions permits

The reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) plays a central role in the environmental policies considered by countries for implementation not only at its own level but also at supranational levels. This thesis is dedicated to investigate some aspects of two of the most relevant climate change policies. The first part is dedicated to emission permit markets and the second part to optimal carbon taxes. On emission permit markets we explore the strategic behavior of oligopolistic firms operating in polluting industrial sectors that are regulated by cap and trade systems. Our aim is to identify how market power influences the main results obtained under perfect competition assumptions and to understand how actions taken in one market affects the outcome of the other related market. A partial equilibrium model is developed for this purpose with specific abatement cost functions. In Chapter 2 we use the model to explain some of the most relevant literature results. In Chapter 3 the model is used to analyze different oligopolistic structures in the product market under the assumption of competitive permits market. There are two significant findings. Firstly, under the assumption of a Stackelberg oligopoly, firms have no incentives for lobbying in order to manipulate permit prices up, as they have under Cournot competition...

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

The 'Arc of prosperity' revisited: Homelessness policy change in north western Europe

This paper compares continuity and change in homelessness policy in Ireland, Scotland and Norway with a particular focus on the period of post-crisis austerity measures (2008-2016). The analytical approach draws on institutional theory and the notion of path dependency, which has rarely been applied to comparative homelessness research. The paper compares welfare and housing systems in the three countries prior to presenting a detailed analysis of the conceptualisation and measurement of homelessness; the institutions which address homelessness; and the evidence of change in the post-2008 period. The analysis demonstrates that challenges remain in comparing the nature of homelessness and policy responses across nation states, even where they have a number of similar characteristics, and despite some EU influence towards homelessness policy convergence. Similarly, national-level homelessness policy change could not be interpreted as entirely a result of the external shock of the 2008 general financial crisis, as existing national policy goals and programmes were also influential. Overall, embedded national frameworks and institutions were resilient, but sufficiently flexible to deliver longer term policy shifts in response to the changing nature of the homelessness problem and national policy goals. Institutionalism and path dependency were found to be useful in developing the comparative analysis of homelessness policy change and could be fruitfully applied in future longitudinal, empirical research across a wider range of countries.