The National Audit Office uses OR to assess the value for money of public services

Supreme audit institutions (SAIs) have an important role in assessing value for money in the delivery of public services. Assessing value for money necessarily involves assessing counterfactuals: good value for money has been achieved if a policy could not reasonably have been delivered more efficiently, effectively, or economically. Operations research modelling has the potential to help in the assessment of these counterfactuals. However, is such modelling too arcane, complex, and technically burdensome for organisations that, like SAIs, operate in a time- and resource-constrained and politically charged environment? We report on three applications of modelling at the UK's SAI, the National Audit Office, in the context of studies on demand management in tax collection, end-of-life care, and health-care associated infections. In all cases, the models have featured in the audit reports and helped study teams come to a value-for-money judgment. We conclude that OR modelling is indeed a valuable addition to the value-for-money auditor's methodological tool box.

Morality and the good life

Being moral sometimes handicaps decent people in their pursuit of worthwhile goals. This is especially likely to happen when those with power in society have badly mistaken ideas about what morality requires. A good person might not last long in a bad society.

The tenant as a customer: can good service improve real estate performance?

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) theory suggests that good customer service results in satisfied customers, who in turn are more likely to remain loyal and recommend the service provider to others. Proponents of good customer service for tenants claim that landlords should see a return on any investment in their customer service, in the form of enhanced real estate performance. This paper begins by reviewing research on customer service returns in other industries. Through consideration of the characteristics of real estate markets, the paper explains how factors such as (inter alia) lease terms, property market cycles, and property type, might determine the relationship between customer service and real estate performance. The paper concludes that further research is needed to isolate specific aspects of customer service that are most appreciated by customers. It suggests that the financial returns which accrue to landlords adopting a customer-focused approach might indeed be quantified, and suggests an appropriate method for such future research.

A good enough approach to setting planning obligations

In this paper we propose an alternative model of, what is often called, land value capture in the planning system. Based on development viability models, negotiations and policy formation regarding the level of planning obligations have taken place at the local level with little clear guidance on technique, approach and method. It is argued that current approaches are regressive and fail to reflect how the ability of sites to generate planning gain can vary over time and between sites. The alternative approach suggested here attempts to rationalise rather than replace the existing practice of development viability appraisal. It is based upon the assumption that schemes with similar development values should produce similar levels of return to the landowner, developer and other stakeholders in the development as well as similar levels of planning obligations in all parts of the country. Given the high level of input uncertainty in viability modelling, a simple viability model is ‘good enough’ to quantify the maximum level of planning obligations for a given level of development value. We have argued that such an approach can deliver a more durable, equitable, simpler, consistent and cheaper method for policy formation regarding planning obligations.

“Bad talk” made good: language variety in four Caribbean British children’s poets

This article looks at how four British-based poets born in the Caribbean exploit the rich language repertoire available to them in their work for children and young people. Following initial consideration of questions of definition and terminology, poetry collections by James Berry, John Agard, Grace Nichols and Valerie Bloom are discussed, with a focus on the interplay and creative tension between the different varieties of Caribbean creoles (“Bad Talk”) and standard English evident in their work. Variation both between the four poets’ usage and within each individual poet’s work is considered, and a trend over time towards the inclusion of fewer creole-influenced poems is noted. This and other issues, such as the labelling of the four poets’ work as ‘performance poetry’ and the nature of the poets’ contribution to British children’s literature, are considered in the conclusion.

Doing more harm than good? Community based natural resource management and the neglect of local institutions in policy development

Approaches to natural resource management emphasise the importance of involving local people and institutions in order to build capacity, limit costs, and achieve environmental sustainability. Governments worldwide, often encouraged by international donors, have formulated devolution policies and legal instruments that provide an enabling environment for devolved natural resource management. However, implementation of these policies reveals serious challenges. This article explores the effects of limited involvement of local people and institutions in policy development and implementation. An in-depth study of the Forest Policy of Malawi and Village Forest Areas in the Lilongwe district provides an example of externally driven policy development which seeks to promote local management of natural resources. The article argues that policy which has weak ownership by national government and does not adequately consider the complexity of local institutions, together with the effects of previous initiatives on them, can create a cumulative legacy through which destructive resource use practices and social conflict may be reinforced. In short, poorly developed and implemented community based natural resource management policies can do considerably more harm than good. Approaches are needed that enable the policy development process to embed an in-depth understanding of local institutions whilst incorporating flexibility to account for their location-specific nature. This demands further research on policy design to enable rigorous identification of positive and negative institutions and ex-ante exploration of the likely effects of different policy interventions.

Conformism and reciprocity in public good provision

People contribute more to experimental public goods the more others contribute, a tendency called “crowding-in.” We propose a novel experimental design to distinguish two possible causes of crowding-in: reciprocity, the usual explanation, and conformity, a neglected alternative. Subjects are given the opportunity to react to contributions of a payoff-irrelevant group, in addition to their own group. We find evidence of conformity, accounting for roughly 1/3 of crowding-in.

Are superhumps good measures of the mass ratio for AM CVn systems?

We extend recent work that included the effect of pressure forces to derive the precession rate of eccentric accretion discs in cataclysmic variables to the case of double degenerate systems. We find that the logical scaling of the pressure force in such systems results in predictions of unrealistically high primary masses. Using the prototype AM CVn as a calibrator for the magnitude of the effect, we find that there is no scaling that applies consistently to all the systems in the class. We discuss the reasons for the lack of a superhump period to mass ratio relationship analogous to that known for SU UMa systems and suggest that this is because these secondaries do not have a single valued mass-radius relationship. We highlight the unreliability of mass-ratios derived by applying the SU UMa expression to the AM CVn binaries.

Good machine performance in Turing’s imitation game

In this paper we consider transcripts which originated from a practical series of Turing’s Imitation Game which was held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. In some cases the tests involved a 3-participant simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities whereas others were the result of a direct 2-participant interaction. Each of the transcripts considered here resulted in a human interrogator being fooled, by a machine, into concluding that they had been conversing with a human. Particular features of the conversation are highlighted, successful ploys on the part of each machine discussed and likely reasons for the interrogator being fooled are considered. Subsequent feedback from the interrogators involved is also included

Good and bad increases in ecological awareness: environmental differentiation revisited

We analyze a vertically differentiated market, assuming that conventional and green firms' products have different impacts on the environment. Heterogeneous consumers choose to be supplied by a conventional or a green firm, depending on their extra willingness to pay for a green product and the relative prices of the products in the market. We show that environmental awareness campaigns may have a negative impact on total welfare. This possibility is shown to exist without consumer misperceptions about the quality of green products and ruling out changes in the coverage and the structure of the market. Surprisingly, both conventional and green firms may benefit from heterogeneity-enhancing awareness campaigns, while social welfare is more likely to be enhanced by heterogeneity-reducing ones.

Endogenous retailer preferences in intermediate good markets

We model strategic interaction in a differentiated input market as a game among two suppliers and n retailers. Each one of the upstream firms chooses the specification of the input which it will offer.Then, retailers choose their type from a continuum of possibilities. The decisions made in these two first stages affect the degree of compatibility between each retailer's ideal input specification and that of the inputs offered by the two upstream firms. In a third stage, upstream firms compete setting input prices. Equilibrium may be of the two-vendor policy or of the technological monopoly type.