Stochastic Partial Budgeting: A New Look at an Old Tool

Farm business managers are constantly making adjustments in their businesses for smoother operations and profitability. Many times, these choices involve actions to enhance the financial return of the farm business; while other times these decisions are made out of necessity to minimize the effects of unfavorable conditions or events such as drought or changes in the market conditions. Some of these decisions are relatively simple, requiring making choices among alternatives within an enterprise; while others are complex involving a total overhaul of the business and its enterprises. Alternative choices within an individual enterprise can have a differential impact on farm profitability. Therefore, making the best decision may make the difference between profit or loss for that enterprise. Partial budgeting is very useful in making such changes within an enterprise of a farm.

Exact field-driven interface dynamics in the two-dimensional stochastic Ising model with helicoidal boundary conditions

We investigate the interface dynamics of the two-dimensional stochastic Ising model in an external field under helicoidal boundary conditions. At sufficiently low temperatures and fields, the dynamics of the interface is described by an exactly solvable high-spin asymmetric quantum Hamiltonian that is the infinitesimal generator of the zero range process. Generally, the critical dynamics of the interface fluctuations is in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class of critical behavior. We remark that a whole family of RSOS interface models similar to the Ising interface model investigated here can be described by exactly solvable restricted high-spin quantum XXZ-type Hamiltonians. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Divertor map with freedom of geometry and safety factor profile

An explicit, area-preserving and integrable magnetic field line map for a single-null divertor tokamak is obtained using a trajectory integration method to represent equilibrium magnetic surfaces. The magnetic surfaces obtained from the map are capable of fitting different geometries with freely specified position of the X-point, by varying free model parameters. The safety factor profile of the map is independent of the geometric parameters and can also be chosen arbitrarily. The divertor integrable map is composed of a nonintegrable map that simulates the effect of external symmetry-breaking resonances, so as to generate a chaotic region near the separatrix passing through the X-point. The composed field line map is used to analyze escape patterns (the connection length distribution and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate) for two equilibrium configurations with different magnetic shear profiles at the plasma edge.

Differential geometry of grassmannians and the Plucker map

Using the Plucker map between grassmannians, we study basic aspects of classic grassmannian geometries. For 'hyperbolic' grassmannian geometries, we prove some facts (for instance, that the Plucker map is a minimal isometric embedding) that were previously known in the 'elliptic' case.

Wing geometry of Anopheles darlingi Root (Diptera: Culicidae) in five major Brazilian ecoregions

We undertook geometric morphometric analysis of wing venation to assess this character's ability to distinguish Anopheles darlingi Root populations and to test the hypothesis that populations from coastal areas of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest differ from those of the interior Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and the regions South and North of the Amazon River. Results suggest that populations from the coastal and interior Atlantic Forest are more similar to each other than to any of the other regional populations. Notably, the Cerrado population was more similar to that from north of the Amazon River than to that collected of south of the River. thus showing no correlation with geographical distances. We hypothesize that environmental and ecological factors may affect wing evolution in An. darlingi. Although it is premature to associate environmental and ecological determinants with wing features and evolution of the species, investigations on this field are promising. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of wing geometry data and genetic data for assessing the population structure of Aedes aegypti

Aedes aegypti is the most important vector of dengue viruses in tropical and subtropical regions. Because vaccines are still under development, dengue prevention depends primarily on vector control. Population genetics is a common approach in research involving Ae. aegypti. In the context of medical entomology, wing morphometric analysis has been proposed as a strong and low-cost complementary tool for investigating population structure. Therefore, we comparatively evaluated the genetic and phenotypic variability of population samples of Ae. aegypti from four sampling sites in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The distances between the sites ranged from 7.1 to 50 km. This area, where knowledge on the population genetics of this mosquito is incipient, was chosen due to the thousands of dengue cases registered yearly. The analysed loci were polymorphic, and they revealed population structure (global F-ST = 0.062; p < 0.05) and low levels of gene flow (Nm = 0.47) between the four locations. Principal component and discriminant analyses of wing shape variables (18 landmarks) demonstrated that wing polymorphisms were only slightly more common between populations than within populations. Whereas microsatellites allowed for geographic differentiation, wing geometry failed to distinguish the samples. These data suggest that microevolution in this species may affect genetic and morphological characters to different degrees. In this case, wing shape was not validated as a marker for assessing population structure. According to the interpretation of a previous report, the wing shape of Ae. aegypti does not vary significantly because it is stabilised by selective pressure. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A spatial stochastic model for rumor transmission

We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its (nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate lambda. At rate alpha a spreader becomes a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally, spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with positive probability.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING MAIZE YIELD

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.

Effect of sample pre-cracking method and notch geometry in plane strain fracture toughness tests as applied to a PMMA resin

The influence of test method factors (notch shape, square or angular, and pre-cracking method, by tapping onto or pressing a razor blade) on the results obtained in plane strain fracture toughness test according to standard ASTM D5045 using SENB specimens made of a commercial PMMA resin were investigated. Results were analyzed quantitatively by comparing the obtained K-IC values and qualitatively by observing their effect on the Moire fringes observed using photoelasticity, showing that, at 95% significance level, the K-IC values are affected by the pre-cracking method, with the most conservative value being obtained when natural pre-cracks were introduced by tapping onto a razor blade (K-IC = 1.15 +/- 0.11 MPa.m(0.5)). This correlates with a perturbation in the stress field close to the pre-crack tip observed in the photoelasticity test sample when it was introduced by pressing the razor blade. Surprisingly, notch geometry only slightly affects the results. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic competitive learning in complex networks

Competitive learning is an important machine learning approach which is widely employed in artificial neural networks. In this paper, we present a rigorous definition of a new type of competitive learning scheme realized on large-scale networks. The model consists of several particles walking within the network and competing with each other to occupy as many nodes as possible, while attempting to reject intruder particles. The particle's walking rule is composed of a stochastic combination of random and preferential movements. The model has been applied to solve community detection and data clustering problems. Computer simulations reveal that the proposed technique presents high precision of community and cluster detections, as well as low computational complexity. Moreover, we have developed an efficient method for estimating the most likely number of clusters by using an evaluator index that monitors the information generated by the competition process itself. We hope this paper will provide an alternative way to the study of competitive learning.

Stochastic gravito-inertial modes discovered by CoRoT in the hot Be star HD51452

Context. Be stars are rapidly rotating stars with a circumstellar decretion disk. They usually undergo pressure and/or gravity pulsation modes excited by the kappa-mechanism, i.e. an effect of the opacity of iron-peak elements in the envelope of the star. In the Milky Way, p-modes are observed in stars that are hotter than or equal to the B3 spectral type, while g-modes are observed at the B2 spectral type and cooler. Aims. We observed a B0IVe star, HD51452, with the high-precision, high-cadence photometric CoRoT satellite and high-resolution, ground-based HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs to study its pulsations in great detail. We also used the lower resolution spectra available in the BeSS database. Methods. We analyzed the CoRoT and spectroscopic data with several methods: CLEAN-NG, FREQFIND, and a sliding window method. We also analyzed spectral quantities, such as the violet over red (V/R) emission variations, to obtain information about the variation in the circumstellar environment. We calculated a stellar structure model with the ESTER code to test the various interpretation of the results. Results. We detect 189 frequencies of variations in the CoRoT light curve in the range between 0 and 4.5 c d(-1). The main frequencies are also recovered in the spectroscopic data. In particular we find that HD51452 undergoes gravito-inertial modes that are not in the domain of those excited by the kappa-mechanism. We propose that these are stochastic modes excited in the convective zones and that at least some of them are a multiplet of r-modes (i.e. subinertial modes mainly driven by the Coriolis acceleration). Stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes had never been observed in any star, and theory predicted that their very low amplitudes would be undetectable even with CoRoT. We suggest that the amplitudes are enhanced in HD51452 because of the very rapid stellar rotation. In addition, we find that the amplitude variations of these modes are related to the occurrence of minor outbursts. Conclusions. Thanks to CoRoT data, we have detected a new kind of pulsations in HD51452, which are stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes, probably due to its very rapid rotation. These modes are probably also present in other rapidly rotating hot Be stars.

Network-based stochastic semisupervised learning

Semisupervised learning is a machine learning approach that is able to employ both labeled and unlabeled samples in the training process. In this paper, we propose a semisupervised data classification model based on a combined random-preferential walk of particles in a network (graph) constructed from the input dataset. The particles of the same class cooperate among themselves, while the particles of different classes compete with each other to propagate class labels to the whole network. A rigorous model definition is provided via a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system and a mathematical analysis of its behavior is carried out. A numerical validation presented in this paper confirms the theoretical predictions. An interesting feature brought by the competitive-cooperative mechanism is that the proposed model can achieve good classification rates while exhibiting low computational complexity order in comparison to other network-based semisupervised algorithms. Computer simulations conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets reveal the effectiveness of the model.

Mapping the hydrodynamic response to the initial geometry in heavy-ion collisions

We investigate how the initial geometry of a heavy-ion collision is transformed into final flow observables by solving event-by-event ideal hydrodynamics with realistic fluctuating initial conditions. We study quantitatively to what extent anisotropic flow (nu(n)) is determined by the initial eccentricity epsilon(n) for a set of realistic simulations, and we discuss which definition of epsilon(n) gives the best estimator of nu(n). We find that the common practice of using an r(2) weight in the definition of epsilon(n) in general results in a poorer predictor of nu(n) than when using r(n) weight, for n > 2. We similarly study the importance of additional properties of the initial state. For example, we show that in order to correctly predict nu(4) and nu(5) for noncentral collisions, one must take into account nonlinear terms proportional to epsilon(2)(2) and epsilon(2)epsilon(3), respectively. We find that it makes no difference whether one calculates the eccentricities over a range of rapidity or in a single slice at z = 0, nor is it important whether one uses an energy or entropy density weight. This knowledge will be important for making a more direct link between experimental observables and hydrodynamic initial conditions, the latter being poorly constrained at present.

Robustness of the non-Markovian Alzheimer walk under stochastic perturbation

The elephant walk model originally proposed by Schutz and Trimper to investigate non-Markovian processes led to the investigation of a series of other random-walk models. Of these, the best known is the Alzheimer walk model, because it was the first model shown to have amnestically induced persistence-i.e. superdiffusion caused by loss of memory. Here we study the robustness of the Alzheimer walk by adding a memoryless stochastic perturbation. Surprisingly, the solution of the perturbed model can be formally reduced to the solutions of the unperturbed model. Specifically, we give an exact solution of the perturbed model by finding a surjective mapping to the unperturbed model. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2012