Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

Against the Tide

In his most recent publication, Against the Tide: Critics of Digitalisation, Otto Peters brings together some of the most formidable and critical voices and compelling perspectives on the potential hazards of digitalization. The viewpoints presented range from personal, anthropological, and pedagogical to more scientific and technical, and arise from multiple disciplines. Peters has long been a respected scholar in the field of distance education, and while Peters’ earlier work has advocated the affordances of digitalization, this latest book is an abrupt shift to the darker side of digitalization. The assembly of critics Peters has gathered come from around the world and different walks of life: journalists, educators, scientists, philosophers, lawyers, mathematicians, and computer scientists, to name a few. Their one shared bond is a deep-seated belief that digitalization will have a profound and lasting impact on humankind – and not only in positive ways. ...

The Storm Surge Event of the Netherlands in 1953

A disastrous storm surge hit the coast of the Netherlands on 31 January and 1 February 1953. We examine the meteorological situation during this event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. We find a strong pressure gradient between Ireland and northern Germany accompanied by strong north-westerly winds over the North Sea. Storm driven sea level rise combined with spring tide contributed to this extreme event. The state of the atmosphere in 20CR during this extreme event is in good agreement with historical observational data

Alterations of white matter integrity related to the season of birth in schizophrenia: a DTI study

In schizophrenia there is a consistent epidemiological finding of a birth excess in winter and spring. Season of birth is thought to act as a proxy indicator for harmful environmental factors during foetal maturation. There is evidence that prenatal exposure to harmful environmental factors may trigger pathologic processes in the neurodevelopment, which subsequently increase the risk of schizophrenia. Since brain white matter alterations have repeatedly been found in schizophrenia, the objective of this study was to investigate whether white matter integrity was related to the season of birth in patients with schizophrenia. Thirty-four patients with schizophrenia and 33 healthy controls underwent diffusion tensor imaging. Differences in the fractional anisotropy maps of schizophrenia patients and healthy controls born in different seasons were analysed with tract-based spatial statistics. A significant main effect of season of birth and an interaction of group and season of birth showed that patients born in summer had significantly lower fractional anisotropy in widespread white matter regions than those born in the remainder of the year. Additionally, later age of schizophrenia onset was found in patients born in winter months. The current findings indicate a relationship of season of birth and white matter alterations in schizophrenia and consequently support the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms in schizophrenia.

Emergence of Canine Distemper Virus Strains With Modified Molecular Signature and Enhanced Neuronal Tropism Leading to High Mortality in Wild Carnivores

An ongoing canine distemper epidemic was first detected in Switzerland in the spring of 2009. Compared to previous local canine distemper outbreaks, it was characterized by unusually high morbidity and mortality, rapid spread over the country, and susceptibility of several wild carnivore species. Here, the authors describe the associated pathologic changes and phylogenetic and biological features of a multiple highly virulent canine distemper virus (CDV) strain detected in and/or isolated from red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), stone (Martes foina) and pine (Martes martes) martens, from a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and a domestic dog. The main lesions included interstitial to bronchointerstitial pneumonia and meningopolioencephalitis, whereas demyelination-the classic presentation of CDV infection-was observed in few cases only. In the brain lesions, viral inclusions were mainly in the nuclei of the neurons. Some significant differences in brain and lung lesions were observed between foxes and mustelids. Swiss CDV isolates shared together with a Hungarian CDV strain detected in 2004. In vitro analysis of the hemagglutinin protein from one of the Swiss CDV strains revealed functional and structural differences from that of the reference strain A75/17, with the Swiss strain showing increased surface expression and binding efficiency to the signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (SLAM). These features might be part of a novel molecular signature, which might have contributed to an increase in virus pathogenicity, partially explaining the high morbidity and mortality, the rapid spread, and the large host spectrum observed in this outbreak.

Integration of Year-round Forage Management Systems for Spring-calving and Fall-calving Beef Cows (A Progress Report)

Animal production, hay production and feeding, winter forage composition changes, and summer pasture yields and nutrient composition of a year-round grazing system for spring-calving and fall-calving cows were compared to those of a conventional, minimal land system. Cows in the year-round and minimal land systems grazed forage from smooth bromegrassorchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil (SB-O-T) pastures at 1.67 and 3.33 acres, respectively, per cow in the summer. During the summer, SB-O-T pastures in the year-round grazing system also were grazed by stockers at 1.67 stockers per acre, and spring-calving and fall-calving cows grazed smooth bromegrass–red clover (SB-RC) and endophyte-free tall fescue–red clover (TF-RC) at 2.5 acres per cow for approximately 45 days in midsummer. In the year-round grazing system, spring-calving cows grazed corn crop residues at 2.5 acres per cow and stockpiled SB-RC pastures at 2.5 acres per cow; fallcalving cows grazed stockpiled TF-RC pastures at 2.5 acres per cow during winter. In the minimal land system, in winter, cows were maintained in a drylot on first-cutting hay harvested from 62.5–75% of the pasture acres during summer. Hay was fed to maintain a body condition score of 5 on a 9-point scale for springcalving cows in both systems and a body condition score of 3 for fall-calving cows in the year-round system. Over 3 years, mean body weights of fall-calving cows in the year-round system did not differ from the body weights of spring-calving cows in either system, but fall-calving cows had higher (P < .05) body condition scores compared to spring-calving cows in either system. There were no differences among all groups of cows in body condition score changes over the winter grazing season (P > .05). During the summer grazing season, fall-calving cows in the year- round system and springcalving cows in the minimal land system gained more body condition and more weight (P < .05) than springcalving cows in the year-round grazing system. Fall calves in the year-round system had higher birth weights, lower weaning weights, and lower average preweaning daily gains compared to either group of spring calves (P < .05). However, there were no significant differences for birth weights, weaning weights, or average pre-weaning daily gains between spring calves in either system over the 3-year experiment (P > .05). The amount of total growing animal production (calves and stockers) per acre for each system did not differ in any year (P > .05). Over the 3-year experiment, 1.9 ton more hay was fed per cow and 1 ton more hay was fed per cow–calf pair in the minimal land system compared to the year-round grazing system (P < .05).

Effects of Pasture Conditions in Spring on Seasonal Forage Productivity

Fifteen beef cow-calf producers in southern Iowa were selected based on locality, management level, historical date of grazing initiation and desire to participate in the project. In 1997 and 1998, all producers kept records of production and economic data using the Integrated Resource Management-Standardized Performance Analysis (IRM-SPA) records program. At the initiation of grazing on each farm in 1997 and 1998, Julian date, degree-days, cumulative precipitation, and soil moisture, phosphorus, and potassium concentrations were determined. Also determined were pH, temperature, and load-bearing capacity; and forage mass, sward height, morphology and dry matter concentration. Over the grazing season, forage production, measured both by cumulative mass and sward height, forage in vitro digestible dry matter concentration, and crude protein concentration were determined monthly. In the fall of 1996 the primary species in pastures on farms used in this project were cool-season grasses, which composed 76% of the live forage whereas legumes and weeds composed 8.3 and 15.3%, respectively. The average number of paddocks was 4.1, reflecting a low intensity rotational stocking system on most farms. The average dates of grazing initiation were May 5 and April 29 in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with standard deviations of 14.8 and 14.1 days. Because the average soil moisture of 23% was dry and did not differ between years, it seems that most producers delayed the initiation of grazing to avoid muddy conditions by initiating grazing at a nearly equal soil moisture. However, Julian date, degree-days, soil temperature and morphology index at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as mass or sward height, in 1998. And forage mass and height at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997. Moreover, the concentrations of digestible dry matter at the initiation of and during the grazing season and the concentrations of crude protein during the grazing season were lower than desired for optimal animal performance. Because the mean seasonal digestible dry matter concentration was negatively related to initial forage mass in 1997 and mean seasonal crude proteins concentrations were negatively related to the Julian date, degree-days, and morphology indeces in both years, it seems that delaying the initiation of grazing until pasture soils are not muddy, is limiting the quality as well as the quantity of pasture forage. In 1997, forage production and digestibility were positively related to the soil phosphorus concentration. Soil potassium concentration was positively related to forage digestibility in 1997 and forage production and crude protein concentration in 1998. Increasing the number of paddocks increased forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997, and forage digestible dry matter concentration in 1998. Increasing yields or the concentrations of digestible dry matter or crude protein of pasture forage reduced the costs of purchased feed per cow.

Pasture Conditions at the Initiation of Grazing to Optimize Forage Productivity: A Progress Report

To determine environmental, soil, and sward effects at the initiation of cattle grazing in the spring on seasonal (forage accumulated during the grazing season) and cumulative (seasonal + initial forage mass) forage accumulation (FA), 15 commercial cow-calf producers from southern Iowa were selected by historical initial grazing date. At grazing initiation, twelve .25-m2 samples were hand-clipped from each pasture and sward heights (SH) measured with a falling plane meter (4.8 kg/m2) to determine initial forage mass. At each location, soil temperature and load bearing capacity (LBC) were measured and a soil sample was collected to measure pH and moisture, P, and K concentrations. Cumulative degree-days (base=3.85°C) and precipitation at grazing initiation were calculated from NOAA records. At the beginning of each month, at least three grazing exclosures were placed on each grazed pasture to determine monthly FA. SH in each exclosure was recorded, and a .25-m2 forage sample was hand-clipped proximate to each exclosure. At the end of each month, SH was recorded and .25-m2 hand-clipped forage samples from inside exclosures were obtained. In linear regressions, cumulative and seasonal SH increased with greater soil P (r2=.5049 and .5417), soil K (r2=.4675 and .4397), and initial forage mass (r2=.1984 and .2801). Seasonal SH increased with earlier initial grazing dates (r2=.1996) and less accumulated degree-days (r2=.2364). Cumulative and seasonal FA increased with earlier initial grazing dates (r2=.2106 and .3744), lower soil temperatures (r2=.2617 and.2874), and greater soil P (r2=.3489 and .2598). Cumulative FA increased with greater soil K (r2=.4675). In quadratic regressions, cumulative and seasonal SH were correlated to soil P (r2=.6310 and .5310) and soil K (r2=.5095 and.4401). Cumulative and seasonal FA were correlated to degree days (r2=.3630 and.4013) and initial grazing date (r2=.3425 and .4088). Cumulative FA was correlated to soil P (r2=.3539), and seasonal FA was correlated to soil moisture (r2=.3688).

Integrating the Use of Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows in a Year-round Grazing System (A Progress Report)

Animal production, hay production and feeding, and the yields and composition of forage from summer and winter grass-legume pastures and winter corn crop residue fields from a year-round grazing system were compared with those of a conventional system. The year-round grazing system utilized 1.67 acres of smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pasture per cow in the summer, and 1.25 acres of stockpiled tall fescue-red clover pasture per cow, 1.25 acres of stockpiled smooth bromegrass-red clover pasture per cow, and 1.25 acres of corn crop residues per cow during winter for spring- and fall-calving cows and stockers. First-cutting hay was harvested from the tall fescue-red clover and smooth bromegrass-red clover pastures to meet supplemental needs of cows and calves during winter. In the conventional system (called the minimal land system), spring-calving cows grazed smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pastures at 3.33 acres/cow during summer with first cutting hay removed from one-half of these acres. This hay was fed to these cows in a drylot during winter. All summer grazing was done by rotational stocking for both systems, and winter grazing of the corn crop residues and stockpiled forages for pregnant spring-calving cows and lactating fall-calving cows in the year-round system was managed by strip-stocking. Hay was fed to springcalving cows in both systems to maintain a mean body condition score of 5 on a 9-point scale, but was fed to fall-calving cows to maintain a mean body condition score of greater than 3. Over winter, fall-calving cows lost more body weight and condition than spring calving cows, but there were no differences in body weight or condition score change between spring-calving cows in either system. Fall- and spring-calving cows in the yearround grazing system required 934 and 1,395 lb. hay dry matter/cow for maintenance during the winter whereas spring-calving cows in drylot required 4,776 lb. hay dry matter/cow. Rebreeding rates were not affected by management system. Average daily gains of spring-born calves did not differ between systems, but were greater than fall calves. Because of differences in land areas for the two systems, weight production of calves per acre of cows in the minimal land system was greater than those of the year-round grazing system, but when the additional weight gains of the stocker cattle were considered, production of total growing animals did not differ between the two systems.

Evaluation of Year-round Forage Management Systems for Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows (A Progress Report)

A year-round grazing system for spring- and fall-calving cows was developed to compare animal production and performance, hay production and feeding, winter forage composition changes, and summer pasture yield and nutrient composition to that from a conventional, or minimal land system. Systems compared forage from smooth bromegrass-orchardgrass-birdsfoot trefoil pastures for both systems in the summer and corn crop residues and stockpiled grass-legume pastures for the year-round system to drylot hay feeding during winter for the minimal land system. The year-round grazing system utilized 1.67 acres of smooth bromegrassorchardgrass- birdsfoot trefoil (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the summer, compared with 3.33 acres of (SB-O-T) pasture per cow in the control (minimal land) system. In addition to SB-O-T pastures, the year-round grazing system utilized 2.5 acres of tall fescue-red clover (TFRC) and 2.5 acres of smooth bromegrass-red clover (SBRC) per cow for grazing in both mid-summer and winter for fall- and spring-calving cows, respectively. First-cutting hay was harvested from the TF-RC and SB-RC pastures, and regrowth was grazed for approximately 45 days in the summer. These pastures were then fertilized with 40 lbs N/acre and stockpiled for winter grazing. Also utilized during the winter for spring-calving cows in the year-round grazing system were corn crop residue (CCR) pastures at an allowance of 2.5 acres per cow. In the minimal land system, hay was harvested from three-fourths of the area in SB-O-T pastures and stored for feeding in a drylot through the winter. Summer grazing was managed with rotational stocking for both systems, and winter grazing of stockpiled forages and corn crop residues by year-round system cows was managed by strip-stocking. Hay was fed to maintain a body condition score of 5 on a 9 point scale for spring-calving cows in both systems. Hay was supplemented as needed to maintain a body condition score of 3 for fall-calving cows nursing calves through the winter. Although initial condition scores for cows in both systems were different at the initiation of grazing for both winter and summer, there were no significant differences (P > .05) in overall condition score changes throughout both grazing seasons. In year 1, fall-calving cows in the year-round grazing system lost more (P < .05) body weight during winter than spring-calving cows in either system. In year 2, there were no differences seen in weight changes over winter for any group of cows. Average daily gains of fall calves in the yearround system were 1.9 lbs/day compared with weight gains of 2.5 lbs/day for spring calves from both systems. Yearly growing animal production from pastures for both years did not differ between systems when weight gains of stockers that grazed summer pastures in the year-round grazing system were added to weight gains of suckling calves. Carcass characteristics for all calves finished in the feedlot for both systems were similar. There were no significant differences in hay production between systems for year 1; however, amounts of hay needed to maintain cows were 923, 1373, 4732 lbs dry matter/cow for year-round fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively. In year 2, hay production per acre in the minimal land system was greater (P < .05) than for the year-round system, but the amounts of hay required per cow were 0, 0, and 4720 lbs dry matter/cow for yearround fall-calving, year-round spring-calving, and minimal land spring-calving cows, respectively.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars: I. Spring sublimation activity and processes

Spring sublimation of the seasonal CO2 northern polar cap is a dynamic process in the current Mars climate. Phenomena include dark fans of dune material propelled out onto the seasonal ice layer, polygonal cracks in the seasonal ice, sand flow down slipfaces, and outbreaks of gas and sand around the dune margins. These phenomena are concentrated on the north polar erg that encircles the northern residual polar cap. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has been in orbit for three Mars years, allowing us to observe three northern spring seasons. Activity is consistent with and well described by the Kieffer model of basal sublimation of the seasonal layer of ice applied originally in the southern hemisphere. Three typical weak spots have been identified on the dunes for escape of gas sublimed from the bottom of the seasonal ice layer: the crest of the dune, the interface of the dune with the interdune substrate, and through polygonal cracks in the ice. Pressurized gas flows through these vents and carries out material entrained from the dune. Furrows in the dunes channel gas to outbreak points and may be the northern equivalent of southern radially-organized channels ("araneiform" terrain), albeit not permanent. Properties of the seasonal CO2 ice layer are derived from timing of seasonal events such as when final sublimation occurs. Modification of dune morphology shows that landscape evolution is occurring on Mars today, driven by seasonal activity associated with sublimation of the seasonal CO2 polar cap.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars II: HiRISE photometric analysis of evolution of northern polar dunes in spring

We present an overview of our analyses of HiRISE observations of spring evolution of selected dune areas of the north polar erg. The north polar erg is covered annually by seasonal volatile ice layer, a mixture of CO2 and H2O with mineral dust contamination. In spring, this layer sublimes creating visually enigmatic phenomena, e.g. dark and bright fan-shaped deposits, dark–bright–dark bandings, dark down-slope streaks, and seasonal polygonal cracks. Similar phenomena in southern polar areas are believed to be related to the specific process of solid-state greenhouse effect. In the north, it is currently unclear if the solid-state greenhouse effect is able to explain all the observed phenomena especially because the increased influence of H2O on the time scales of this process has not yet been quantified. HiRISE observations of our selected locations show that the ground exhibits a temporal behaviour similar to the one observed in the southern polar areas: a brightening phase starting close to the spring equinox with a subsequent darkening towards summer solstice. The resolution of HiRISE enabled us to study dunes and substrate individually and even distinguish between different developments on windward and slip face sides of single dunes. Differences in the seasonal evolution between steep slip faces and flatter substrate and windward sides of dunes have been identified and compared to CRISM data of CO2 and H2O distributions on dunes. We also observe small scale dark blotches that appear in early observations and tend to sustain a low reflectivity throughout the spring. These blotches can be regarded as the analogue of dark fan deposits in southern polar areas, leading us to the conclusion that both martian polar areas follow similar spring evolutions.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars III: CRISM/HiRISE observations of spring sublimation

We analyze a series of targeted CRISM and HiRISE observations of seven regions of interest at high latitudes in the Northern polar regions of Mars. These data allow us to investigate the temporal evolution of the composition of the seasonal ice cap during spring, with a special emphasis on peculiar phenomena occurring in the dune fields and in the vicinity of the scarps of the North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLDs). The strength of the spectral signature of CO2 ice continuously decreases during spring whereas the one of H2O ice first shows a strong increase until Ls = 50°. This evolution is consistent with a scenario previously established from analysis of OMEGA data, in which a thin layer of pure H2O ice progressively develops at the surface of the volatile layer. During early spring (Ls < 10°), widespread jet activity is observed by HiRISE while strong spectral signatures of CO2 ice are detected by CRISM. Later, around Ls = 20-40°, activity concentrates at the dune fields where CRISM also detects a spectral enrichment in CO2 ice, consistent with "Kieffer's model" (Kieffer, H.H. [2007]. J. Geophys. Res. 112, E08005. doi:10.1029/2006JE002816) for jet activity. Effects of wind are prominent across the dune fields and seem to strongly influence the sublimation of the volatile layer. Strong winds blowing down the scarps could also be responsible for the significant spatial and temporal variability of the surface ice composition observed close to the NPLD.

THE MULTIPLE LOCATION TIME WEIGHTED INDEX: USING PATIENT ACTIVITY SPACES TO CALCULATE PRIMARY CARE SERVICE AREAS

Geographic health planning analyses, such as service area calculations, are hampered by a lack of patient-specific geographic data. Using the limited patient address information in patient management systems, planners analyze patient origin based on home address. But activity space research done sparingly in public health and extensively in non-health related arenas uses multiple addresses per person when analyzing accessibility. Also, health care access research has shown that there are many non-geographic factors that influence choice of provider. Most planning methods, however, overlook non-geographic factors influencing choice of provider, and the limited data mean the analyses can only be related to home address. This research attempted to determine to what extent geography plays a part in patient choice of provider and to determine if activity space data can be used to calculate service areas for primary care providers. During Spring 2008, a convenience sample of 384 patients of a locally-funded Community Health Center in Houston, Texas, completed a survey that asked about what factors are important when he or she selects a health care provider. A subset of this group (336) also completed an activity space log that captured location and time data on the places where the patient regularly goes. Survey results indicate that for this patient population, geography plays a role in their choice of health care provider, but it is not the most important reason for choosing a provider. Other factors for choosing a health care provider such as the provider offering “free or low cost visits”, meeting “all of the patient’s health care needs”, and seeing “the patient quickly” were all ranked higher than geographic reasons. Analysis of the patient activity locations shows that activity spaces can be used to create service areas for a single primary care provider. Weighted activity-space-based service areas have the potential to include more patients in the service area since more than one location per patient is used. Further analysis of the logs shows that a reduced set of locations by time and type could be used for this methodology, facilitating ongoing data collection for activity-space-based planning efforts.