Spatio-temporal patterns of herbage availability and livestock movements: A cross-border analysis in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay

Due to increasing population and the recent implementation of policies to intensify the use of land and water resources, the transhumant pastoral systems in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay-Dzungarian region are rapidly changing, leading to modifications of herd size, herd composition and spatial distribution of livestock grazing. This may have major consequences for the supply and quality of rangeland biomass. Despite similar topographic settings, the socio-political framework for Chinese and Mongolian pastoralists differs significantly, leading to differences in rangeland utilization. To substantiate these claims, the long-distance transhumance routes, frequency of pasture changes, daily grazing itineraries and size of pastures were recorded by means of GPS tracking of cattle and goats on 1,535 (China) and 1,396 (Mongolia) observation days. The status quo of the main seasonal pastures was captured by measuring the herbage offer and its nutritive value in 869 sampling spots. In the Altay-Dzungarian region, small ruminant herds covered up to 412 km (Mongolia) and grazed on up to nine pastures per year (China). In Mongolia, the herds’ average duration of stay at an individual pasture was longer than in China, particularly in spring and autumn. Herbage allowance at the onset of a grazing period (kg dry matter per sheep unit and day) ranged from 34/17 to 91/95 (China/Mongolia). Comparing crude protein and phosphorous concentrations of herbage, in China, the highest concentrations were measured for spring and summer pastures, whereas in Mongolia, the highest concentrations were determined for autumn and winter pastures. Based on our data, we conclude that regulation of animal numbers and access to pastures seemingly maintained pasture productivity in China, especially at high altitudes. However, this policy may prohibit flexible adaptation to sudden environmental constraints. In contrast, high stocking densities and grazing of pastures before flowering of herbaceous plants negatively affected rangeland productivity in Mongolia, especially for spring and summer pastures.

Evaluation of DUALEM, OptRx and Grassmaster II sensors for monitoring the spatial variability and the temporal stability of a Mediterranean pasture

Site-specific management (SSM) is a form of precision agriculture whereby decisions on resource application and agronomic practices are improved to better match soil and crop requirements as they vary in the field. SSM enables the identification of regions (homogeneous management zones) within the area delimited by field boundaries. These subfield regions constitute areas that have similar permanent characteristics. Traditional soil and pasture sampling and the necessary laboratory analysis are time-consuming, labour-intensive and cost prohibitive, not viable from a SSM perspective because it needs a large number of soil and pasture samples in order to achieve a good representation of soil properties, nutrient levels and pasture quality and productivity. The main objective of this work was to evaluate technologies which have potential for monitoring aspects related to spatial and temporal variability of soil nutrients and pasture green and dry matter yield (respectively, GM and DM, in kg/ha) and support to decision making for the farmer. Three types of sensors were evaluated in a 7ha pasture experimental field: an electromagnetic induction sensor (“DUALEM 1S”, which measures the soil apparent electrical conductivity, ECa), an active optical sensor ("OptRx®", which measures the NDVI, “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”) and a capacitance probe ("GrassMaster II" which estimates plant mass). The results indicate the possibility of using a soil electrical conductivity probe as, probably, the best tool for monitoring not only some of the characteristics of the soil, but also those of the pasture, which could represent an important help in simplifying the process of sampling and support SSM decision making, in precision agriculture projects. On the other hand, the significant and very strong correlations obtained between capacitance and NDVI and between any of these parameters and the pasture productivity shows the potential of these tools for monitoring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of the vegetative growth of biodiverse pasture, for identifying different plant species and variability in pasture yield in Alentejo dry-land farming systems. These results are relevant for the selection of an adequate sensing system for a particular application and open new perspectives for other works that would allow the testing, calibration and validation of the sensors in a wider range of pasture production conditions, namely the extraordinary diversity of botanical species that are characteristic of the Mediterranean region at the different periods of the year.

Spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature from weather forecast data - an introductory numerical study and validation

This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

Assessing the influence of dam construction on the spatial and temporal evolution of population density across the United States of America

Finding the optimum location for placing a dam on a river is usually a complicated process which generally forces thousands of people to flee their homes because they will be inundated during the filling of the dam. Dams could also attract people living in the surrounding area after their construction. The goal of this research is to check for dam attractiveness for people by comparing growth rates of population density in surrounding areas after dam construction to those associated with the period antecedent to the dam construction. To this aim, 1859 dams across the United States of America and high-resolution population distribution from 1790 to 2010 are examined. By grouping dams as a function of their main purpose, water supply dams are found to be, as expected, the most attractive dams for people, with the biggest growth in population density. Irrigation dams are next, followed by hydroelectricity, flood control, Navigation, and finally Recreation dams. Fishery dams and dams for other uses suffered a decrease in population in the years after their construction. The regions with the greatest population growth were found approximately 40-45 km from the dam and at distances greater than 90 km, whereas the regions with the greatest population decline or only a modest gain were located within 10-15 km of the dam.

Benthic macrofauna structure in the northeast area of Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia State, Brazil: patterns of spatial and seasonal distribution

Structure of intertidal and subtidal benthic macrofauna in the northeastern region of Todos os Santos Bay (TSB), northeast Brazil, was investigated during a period of two years. Relationships with environmental parameters were studied through uni-and multivariate statistical analyses, and the main distributional patterns shown to be especially related to sediment type and content of organic fractions (Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus), on both temporal and spatial scales. Polychaete annelids accounted for more than 70% of the total fauna and showed low densities, species richness and diversity, except for the area situated on the reef banks. These banks constitute a peculiar environment in relation to the rest of the region by having coarse sediments poor in organic matter and rich in biodetritic carbonates besides an abundant and diverse fauna. The intertidal region and the shallower area nearer to the oil refinery RLAM, with sediments composed mainly of fine sand, seem to constitute an unstable system with few highly dominant species, such as Armandia polyophthalma and Laeonereis acuta. In the other regions of TSB, where muddy bottoms predominated, densities and diversity were low, especially in the stations near the refinery. Here the lowest values of the biological indicators occurred together with the highest organic compound content. In addition, the nearest sites (stations 4 and 7) were sometimes azoic. The adjacent Caboto, considered as a control area at first, presented low density but intermediate values of species diversity, which indicates a less disturbed environment in relation to the pelitic infralittoral in front of the refinery. The results of the ordination analyses evidenced five homogeneous groups of stations (intertidal; reef banks; pelitic infralittoral; mixed sediments; Caboto) with different specific patterns, a fact which seems to be mainly related to granulometry and chemical sediment characteristics.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Spatio-temporal patterns of throughfall and solute deposition in an open tropical rain forest

The brief interaction of precipitation with a forest canopy can create a high spatial variability of both throughfall and solute deposition. We hypothesized that (i) the variability in natural forest systems is high but depends on system-inherent stability, (ii) the spatial variability of solute deposition shows seasonal dynamics depending on the increase in rainfall frequency, and (iii) spatial patterns persist only in the short-term. The study area in the north-western Brazilian state of Rondonia is subject to a climate with a distinct wet and dry season. We collected rain and throughfall on an event basis during the early wet season (n = 14) and peak of the wet season (n = 14) and analyzed the samples for pH and concentrations of NH4+, Na+, K+, Ca2+ Mg2+,, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and DOC. The coefficient 3 4 cient of variation for throughfall based on both sampling intervals was 29%, which is at the lower end of values reported from other tropical forest sites, but which is higher than in most temperate forests. Coefficients of variation of solute deposition ranged from 29% to 52%. This heterogeneity of solute deposition is neither particularly high nor particularly tow compared with a range of tropical and temperate forest ecosystems. We observed an increase in solute deposition variability with the progressing wet season, which was explained by a negative correlation between heterogeneity of solute deposition and antecedent dry period. The temporal stability of throughfall. patterns was Low during the early wet season, but gained in stability as the wet season progressed. We suggest that rapid plant growth at the beginning of the rainy season is responsible for the lower stability, whereas less vegetative activity during the later rainy season might favor the higher persistence of ""hot"" and ""cold"" spots of throughfall. quantities. The relatively high stability of throughfall patterns during later stages of the wet season may influence processes at the forest floor and in the soil. Solute deposition patterns showed less clear trends but all patterns displayed a short-term stability only. The weak stability of those patterns is apt to impede the formation of solute deposition -induced biochemical microhabitats in the soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inter-individual variability in temporal structure of the basketball shoot

This study analyzed inter-individual variability of the temporal structure applied in basketball throwing. Ten experienced male athletes in basketball throwing were filmed and a number of kinematic movement parameters analyzed. A biomechanical model provided the relative timing of the shoulder, elbow and wrist joint movements. Inter-individual variability was analyzed using sequencing and relative timing of tem phases of the throw. To compare the variability of the movement phases between subjects a discriminant analysis and an ANOVA were applied. The Tukey test was applied to determine where differences occurred. The significance level was p = 0.05. Inter-individual variability was explained by three concomitant factors: (a) a precision control strategy, (b) a velocity control strategy and (c) intrinsic characteristics of the subjects. Therefore, despite the fact that some actions are common to the basketball throwing pattern each performed demonstrated particular and individual characteristics.

Watershed scale temporal stability of soil water content

The recognition of temporally stable locations with respect to soil water content is of importance for soil water management decisions, especially in sloping land of watersheds. Neutron probe soil water content (0 to 0.8 m), evaluated at 20 dates during a year in the Loess Plateau of China, in a 20 ha watershed dominated by Ust-Sandiic Entisols and Aeolian sandy soils, were used to define their temporal stability through two indices: the standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD) and the mean absolute bias error (MABE). Specific concerns were (a) the relationship of temporal stability with soil depth, (b) the effects of soil texture and land use on temporal stability, and (c) the spatial pattern of the temporal stability. Results showed that temporal stability of soil water content at 0.2 m was significantly weaker than those at the soil depths of 0.6 and 0.8 m. Soil texture can significantly (P<0.05) affect the stability of soil water content except for the existence of an insignificant difference between sandy loam and silt loam textures, while temporal stability of areas covered by bunge needlegrass land was not significantly different from those covered by korshinsk peashrub. Geostatistical analysis showed that the temporal stability was spatially variable in an organized way as inferred by the degree of spatial dependence index. With increasing soil depth, the range of both temporal stability indices showed an increasing trend, being 65.8-120.5 m for SDRD and 148.8-214.1 m for MABE, respectively. This study provides a valuable support for soil water content measurements for soil water management and hydrological applications on sloping land areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variability behavior of land surface soil water content in shrub- and grass-land

The knowledge of the relationship between spatial variability of the surface soil water content (theta) and its mean across a spatial domain (theta(m)) is crucial for hydrological modeling and understanding soil water dynamics at different scales. With the aim to compare the soil moisture dynamics and variability between the two land uses and to explore the relationship between the spatial variability of theta and theta(m), this study analyzed sets of surface theta measurements performed with an impedance soil moisture probe, collected 136 times during a period of one year in two transects covering different land uses, i.e., korshinsk peashrub transect (KPT) and bunge needlegrass transect (BNT), in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that the temporal pattern of theta behaved similarly for the two land uses, with both relative wetter soils during wet period and relative drier soils during dry period recognized in BNT. Soil moisture tended to be temporally stable among different dates, and more stable patterns could be observed for dates with more similar soil water conditions. The magnitude of the spatial variation of theta in KPT was greater than that in ENT. For both land uses, the standard deviation (SD) of theta in general increased as theta(m) increased, a behavior that could be well described with a natural logarithmic function. Convex relationship of CV and theta(m) and the maximum CV for both land uses (43.5% in KPT and 41.0% in BNT) can, therefore, be ascertained. Geostatistical analysis showed that the range in KPT (9.1 m) was shorter than that in BNT (15.1 m). The nugget effects, the structured variability, hence the total variability increased as theta(m) increased. For both land uses, the spatial dependency in general increased with increasing theta(m). 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Verbs as Spatial Deixis markers in Jingulu

Contrary to the common pattern of spatial terms being metaphorically extended to location in time, the Australian language Jingulu shows an unusual extension of temporal markers to indicate location in space. Light verbs, which typically encode tense, aspect, mood and associated motion, are occasionally found on nouns to indicate the relative location of the referent with respect to the speaker. It is hypothesised that this pattern resulted from the reduction of verbal clauses used as relative modifiers to the nouns in question.

Comparative neuroanatomical and temporal characterization of FluoroJade-positive neurodegeneration after status epilepticus induced by systemic and intrahippocampal pilocarpine in Wistar rats

The aims of this study were to characterize the spatial distribution of neurodegeneration after status epilepticus (SE) induced by either systemic (S) or intrahippocampal (H) injection of pilocarpine (PILO), two models of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), using FluoroJade (FJ) histochemistry, and to evaluate the kinetics of FJ staining in the H-PILO model. Therefore, we measured the severity of behavioral seizures during both types of SE and also evaluated the FJ staining pattern at 12, 24, and 168 h (7 days) after the H-PILO insult. We found that the amount of FJ-positive (FJ+) area was greater in SE induced by S-PILO as compared to SE induced by H-PILO. After SE induced by H-PILO, we found more FJ+ cells in the hilus of the dentate gyrus (DG) at 12 h, in CA3 at 24 h, and in CA1 at 168 h. We found also no correlation between seizure severity and the number of FJ+ cells in the hippocampus. Co-localization studies of FJ+ cells with either neuronal-specific nuclear protein (NeuN) or glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) labeling 24 h after H-PILO demonstrated spatially selective neurodegeneration. Double labeling with FJ and parvalbumin (PV) showed both FJ+/PV+ and FJ+/PV- cells in hippocampus and entorhinal cortex, among other areas. The current data indicate that FJ+ areas are differentially distributed in the two TLE models and that these areas are greater in the S-PILO than in the H-PILO model. There is also a selective kinetics of FJ+ cells in the hippocampus after SE induced by H-PILO, with no association with the severity of seizures, probably as a consequence of the extra-hippocampal damage. These data point to SE induced by H-PILO as a low-mortality model of TLE, with regional spatial and temporal patterns of FJ staining. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serial conditional discrimination and temporal bisection in rats selectively lesioned in the dentate gyrus

In positive serial conditional discrimination, animals respond during a target stimulus when it is preceded by a feature stimulus, but they do not respond when the same target stimulus is presented alone. Moreover, the feature and target stimuli are separated from each other by an empty interval. The present work aimed to investigate if two durations (4 or 16s) of the same feature stimulus (light) could modulate the operant responses of rats to different levers (A and B) during a 5-s target stimulus (tone). In the present study, lever A was associated with the 4-s light, and lever B was associated with the 16-s light. A 5-s empty interval was included between the light and the tone. In the same training procedure, the rats were also presented with the 5-s tone without the preceding light stimuli. In these trials, the responses were not reinforced. We evaluated the hippocampal involvement of these behavioral processes by selectively lesioning the dentate gyrus with colchicine. Once trained, the rats were submitted to a test using probe trials without reinforcement. They were presented with intermediate durations of the feature stimulus (light) to obtain a temporal bisection curve recorded during the exposure to the target stimuli. The rats from both groups learned to respond with high rates during tones preceded by light and with low rates during tones presented alone, which indicated acquisition of the serial conditional discrimination. The rats were able to discriminate between the 4- and 16-s lights by correctly choosing lever A or B. In the test, the temporal bisection curves from both experimental groups showed a bisection point at the arithmetic mean between 4 and 16s. Such processes were not impaired by the dentate gyrus lesion. Thus, our results showed that different durations of a feature stimulus could result in conditional properties. However, this processing did not appear to depend on the dentate gyrus alone. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.