Graded Relative Evidence

Relative Evidential Supports (RES) was developed and justified several years ago as a non-numeric apparatus that allows us to compare evidential supports for alternative conclusions when making a decision. An extension called Graded Relative Evidence (GRE) of the RES concept of pairwise balancing and trading-off of evidence is reported here which keeps its basic features of simplicity and perspicacity but enriches its modelling fidelity by permitting very modest and intuitive variations in degrees of outweighing (which the essentially binary RES does not). The formal justification is very simply based on linkages to RES and to the Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence. The use of the simple extension is illustrated and to a small degree further justified empirically by application to a topical scientific debate about what is called the Congo Crossover Conjecture here. This decision-making instance is chosen because of the wealth of evidence that has been accumulated on both sides of the debate and the range of evidence strengths manifested in it. The conjecture is that the advent of Aids was in the late 1950s in the Congo when a vaccine for polio was allegedly cultivated in the kidneys of chimpanzees which allowed the Aids infection to cross over to humans from primates. © 2005 Springer.

The Tragedy of Darfur and the Limits of the Responsibility to Protect

The view that states which claim sovereign status must comply with the responsibility to protect their own citizens is gaining ground in international politics. When a state is unable or unwilling to meet this responsibility, the international community is justified in intervening militarily to end widespread human rights violations. This article argues that a diffuse responsibility to protect, as currently conceived, may have important negative consequences. By using the ongoing tragedy of Darfur as an example, the article argues that the responsibility to protect is reactive and focused on the short term, contributes to the outbreak of violence and perversely provides repressed groups with a further incentive to continue their armed struggle after war breaks out. The tragedy of Darfur shows that effective protection requires case-specific policies aimed at prevention, democratization and economic and political development.

'American hegemony after September 11: Allies, rivals and contradictions'

11 September heralded and provided a pretext for a more aggressive but increasingly contradictory American hegemony. Some of the consequences are contrary to the United States' own interests. Its new doctrine of 'preemptive strike' against other sovereign states encourages similarly belligerent behaviour by other governments, and yet more terrorism by nonstate actors, the very threats which were to be eradicated by a re-asserted US hegemony. This essay focuses on three partly overlapping themes: different strategies towards allies - multilateral and unilateral; different forms of power - civil and military; and different ideologies of globalisation - neoliberal and neo-conservative. It argues that while US policy may oscillate between such poles, it often combines the different elements. The overall strategy of the Bush administration is best characterised as unilateral multilateralism. The main issue for US hegemonists is the ways in which their hegemony might best be exercised, maintained and strengthened vis à vis allies and rivals. But for a safer, more democratic world, the choice does not lie between one faction of US hegemonists and another: we need other alternatives such as cosmopolitan democracy and a genuine internationalist movement which would give it some much-needed substance.

Benchmark Status in Fixed-Income Asset Markets

What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to the location of price discovery and we derive its implications. We describe a rich but little used econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this in the context of the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets after the introduction of the Euro. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the 10 year maturity in the US corporate bond market.

The importance of stakeholder engagement in invasive species management: A cross-jurisdictional perspective in Ireland

The management of invasive non-native species is a frequent cause of conflict in the field of biodiversity conservation because perceptions of their costs and benefits differ among stakeholder groups. A lack of cohesion between scientific researchers, the commercial sector and policy makers lies at the root of a widespread failure to develop and implement sustainable management practices for invasive species. The crisis of this situation is intensified by drivers stemming from international conventions and directives to address invasive species issues. There are further direct conflicts between legislative instruments promoting biodiversity conservation on the one hand while liberalizing trade at the national, European and global level on the other. The island of Ireland provides graphic illustration of the importance of cross-jurisdictional approaches to biological invasions. Using primarily Irish examples in this review, we emphasize the importance of approaching risk assessment, risk reduction and control or eradication policies from a cost-efficient, highly flexible perspective, incorporating linkages between environmental, economic and social objectives. The need for consolidated policies between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is particularly acute, though few model cross-border mechanisms for such consolidation are available. The importance of engaging affected stakeholders through positive interactions is discussed with regard to reducing the currently fragmented nature of invasive species management between the two jurisdictions.

Cheesemaking with vegetable coagulants - the use of Cynara L. for the production of ovine milk cheeses

This paper reviews the use of plant extracts as vegetable coagulants for cheesemaking. It covers the plants used as sources of coagulants, with a historical overview and particular emphasis on Cynara species. The genus Cynara L., its composition, milk clotting and proteolytic enzymes (cardosins) and their specificity towards peptide linkages are also described. Cheeses produced in the Iberian Peninsula using Cynara L. as coagulant are documented. Cynara L. is still the most used vegetable coagulant in cheesemaking, and also the most investigated. However, much work remains to be done to understand its action during cheese maturation and further characterization.

Evolutionary agglomeration theory: increasing returns, diminishing returns, and the industry life cycle

According to Marshall’s agglomeration theory, Krugman’s New Economic Geography models, and Porter’s cluster policies, firms should receive increasing returns from a trinity of agglomeration economies: a local pool of skilled labour, local supplier linkages, and local knowledge spillovers. Recent evolutionary theories suggest that whether agglomeration economies generate increasing returns or diminishing returns depends on time, and especially the evolution of the industry life cycle. At the start of the twenty-first century, we re-examine Marshall’s trinity of agglomeration economies in the city-region where he discovered them. The econometric results from our multivariate regression models are the polar opposite of Marshall’s. During the later stages of the industry life cycle, Marshall’s agglomeration economies decrease the economic performance of firms and create widespread diminishing returns for the economic development of the city-region, which has evolved to become one of the poorest city-regions in Europe.

Nationalism, Ethnicity and Self-Determination: A Paradigm Shift?

An ongoing paradigm shift is giving birth to a more multidimensional understanding of the relationship between nationalism, sovereignty, self determination and democratic governance. A common element across the various versions of the new paradigm is the dispersal of democratic governance across multiple and overlapping jurisdictions. Governmental processes are no longer seen as discrete, centralised and homogenous as in the old nation-state model, but as asymmetrical, multilayered and multicultural, with devolution into multiple jurisdictions. These changes have hardly affected the two main conceptual frameworks that dominate the study of nationalism, Modernism and Ethnosymbolism. As a result, they risk becoming irrelevant to the new forms of national self determination, asymmetrical governance and shared sovereignty. Modernism and Ethnosymbolism insist that nationalism seeks to equate the nation with a sovereign state, while in reality the overwhelming majority of nations are stateless and unable to build nation states, as they often inhabit territories shared with other nations. The paradigm shift occurs precisely with the realisation that nation state sovereignty is no longer a feasible solution to the demands of stateless nations. Ethnosymbolism is in a much better position to adapt to the paradigm shift provided it abandons the claim that the nation state is the best shell for the nation.

Families with multiple problems: Some challenges in identifying and providing services to those experiencing adversities across the life course

Summary A concern amongst policy makers to identify high cost and low productivity populations has created a new interest in identifying those who experience adversities across the life-course. This paper outlines the development of conceptual understandings of families whose children experience multiple adversities and links this with later poor outcomes in adult life and examines some of the research challenges in establishing such linkages. Findings It is argued that current thinking with regard to these issues reflects historical domains within which services to children and to adults are located. The challenge to domain thinking is both horizontal and vertical. Policy being required to address the horizontal axis by co-ordinating planned approaches to multiple needs across services. And policy being necessary to address the vertical cleavage between children’s and adult services in ways which join up services across the life path; conceptually and practically acknowledging the links between child and adult experiences. Application Such policy developments will inevitably require social work to develop alternative paradigms for understanding the needs of children and adults and designing services to effectively meet these.

Cosmopolitan Exception

There has been a resurgence of interest in cosmopolitanism in contemporary political theory, based upon the hopeful premise that it heralds an ameliorative response to the malignity of sovereignty's lack and the treacherous violence of sovereignty's excess. The promise of cosmopolitanism inheres in the claim that state sovereignty is and should be supplemented by an international system backed by the legitimacy of international law, grounded in the sovereignty of human rights. Drawing upon Foucault and Agamben, my argument in this essay is that the laudable endeavour of liberal cosmopolitans is flawed in two ways: first, cosmopolitanism cannot escape sovereign violence, because it cannot escape sovereignty; and second, cosmopolitans misconstrue the composition of the very sovereignty they aim to escape. This means that cosmopolitan theorists are unable to identify cosmopolitan practices of sovereignty that also entail forms of violence: cosmopolitan exception. Cosmopolitan exception denotes violent sovereign practices that cannot be differentiated from the protection of rights.

In Pursuit of School Ethos

The purpose of this paper is to examine the linkages and relationships between the officially prescribed school ethos and that which emerges from social interaction. Qualitative data drawn from one Grant-Maintained-Integrated and one Catholic primary school in Northern Ireland show how school ethos, defined as the observed practices and interactions of school members, often departs considerably from school ethos defined as those values and beliefs which the school officially supports. On the basis of the data it is argued that much of what we understand of school ethos is superficial and contradictory. With this in mind the paper concludes by presenting a new angle on ethos which, when taken in conjunction with the other perspectives, further enhances our understanding of how schools work.

Ireland's Innovation Performance: 1991-2005

In this paper we use data from the five waves of the Irish Innovation Panel (IIP) to profile the innovation performance of manufacturing plants in Ireland and Northern Ireland over the period 1991 to 2005. Despite considerable public sector investment on both sides of the border levels of innovation activity have remained broadly similar throughout this period although somewhat different trends are evident in Ireland and Northern Ireland. In terms of product innovation for example, the proportion of manufacturing plants making product changes has increased 5 per cent in Ireland and just over 7 per cent in Northern Ireland. In terms of process innovation a decline of almost 7 per cent in Ireland has been accompanied by a 7 per cent increase in Northern Ireland. These trends provide some evidence of convergence in innovation performance over the 1991 to 2005 period. This is evident in the narrowing gap between the proportion of product innovators in Ireland and Northern Ireland, convergence in the proportion of plants undertaking process innovation and in terms of the increasingly similar proportions of sales derived from innovative products. Looking in more detail at the determinants of manufacturing innovation emphasises the importance of R&D and backwards supply chain linkages as sources of new knowledge for innovation. Other external linkages prove less important suggesting the value of policy initiatives designed to promote knowledge sharing. We also find a significant negative innovation effect from legislative restrictions on plants’ product innovation. Public support for both product and process innovation are having positive effects on innovation outputs at the level of the individual plant. Future research interest centres on the contrast between this strong positive result at firm level and the more modest increases in innovation among the population of firms in Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Output Additionality of Public Support for Innovation: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing Plants

Public support for private R&D and innovation is part of most national and regional innovation support regimes. In this article, we estimate the effect of public innovation support on innovation outputs in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Three dimensions of output additionality are considered: extensive additionality, in which public support encourages a larger proportion of the population of firms to innovate; improved product additionality, in which there is an increase in the average importance of incremental innovation; new product additionality, in which there is an increase in the average importance of more radical innovation. Using an instrumental variable approach, our results are generally positive, with public support for innovation having positive, and generally significant, extensive, improved and new product additionality effects. These results hold both for all plants and indigenously owned plants, a specific target of policy in both jurisdictions. The suggestion is that grant aid to firms can be effective in both encouraging firms to initiate new innovation and improve the quality and sophistication of their innovation activity. Our results also emphasize the importance for innovation of in-house R&D, supply-chain linkages, skill levels and capital investment, all of which may be the focus of complementary policy initiatives.

Getting off the escalator? A study of Scots out-migration from a global city region

Something new is happening to reverse the historical trend of skilled Scots moving to London for career progression. The Scottish population of London and the South East is falling and this despite Scots enjoying continued occupational success within the South East labour market. The authors ask why Scots are leaving the UK's main escalator region and then investigate how these migration changes can best be theorised relative to literature on the mobility of the 'new service class'. Building on Fielding's escalator region hypothesis, the authors report on recent research on longer distance flows out of the UK's main escalator region. They advance the critique of the escalator region hypothesis set out by Findlay et al and ask why people would leave a global city offering good opportunities for occupational mobility. Demographic regime change provides only a partial answer. Other explanations can be found in the changing mobilities of the new service class as they engage in what Smith has defined as 'translocal' and 'transnational' urbanism. The authors argue that Scotland's changing relationship with London and the South East may be representative of a wider set of changes in migration linkages between regional economies and global cities.

Representing War as Punishment in the War on Terror

This paper shows how the notion of punishment has been invoked by former US President George W. Bush, and ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to represent war. It is suggested that in this context, the notion of punishment serves different objectives: legitimizing violence, suggesting the sovereign role taken by the US and highlighting the emergence of new sensibilities. Building on previous literature in criminology and international relations it examines points of contact between two previously distinct security mechanisms - war and punishment- and suggests possible effects of this discursive blurring. It highlights not only the need for criminologists to engage with international relations literature but also the need to evaluate closely the different nature of the international context.