The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth

Over the past four decades, the number of democracies in the world has increased exponentially. This project considers how democracy and FDI affect economic growth as well as whether the impact of FDI depends on the level of democracy in a country. Thus, I explore two major research questions: 1) Whether increased FDI speeds up economic growth, controlling for political regime type, urbanization and other developmental indicators; and 2) Whether an increase in political freedom helps or hinders economic growth, and specifically whether the impact of FDI varies depending on the political regime in the recipient country. To examine these questions, this paper used data from 150 countries over a period between 1980 and 2010 and utilized several models, testing variables such as institutions, agglomerations, urbanization, FDI and type of political regime, among others, for their impact on economic growth. I found that FDI does have a positive impact on economic growth, and that this impact is often magnified when it interacts with other relevant factors. I also found that, after controlling for other variables, FDI inflows do not have a different impact on economic growth in autocracies than they do in democracies. This may be partially explained by autocratic outliers such as China and the OPEC states, which have recently experienced rapid export-led growth. This suggests that factors such as education could have a greater impact on a country¿s economic growth than does its political system.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

Corporate aging and investment decisions

Paper I: Corporate aging and internal resource allocation Abstract Various observers argue that established firms are at a disadvantage in pursuing new growth opportunities. In this paper, we provide systematic evidence that established firms allocate fewer resources to high-growth lines of business. However, we find no evidence of inefficient resource allocation in established firms. Redirecting resources from high-growth to low-growth lines of business does not result in lower profitability. Also, resource allocation towards new growth opportunities does not increase when managers of established firms are exposed to takeover and product market threats. Rather, it seems that conservative resource allocation strategies are driven by pressures to meet investors’ expectations. Our empirical evidence, thus, favors the hypothesis that established firms wisely choose to allocate fewer resources to new growth opportunities as external pressures force them to focus on efficiency rather than novelty (Holmström 1989). Paper II: Corporate aging and asset sales Abstract This paper asks whether divestitures are motivated by strategic considerations about the scope of the firm’s activities. Limited managerial capacity implies that exploiting core competences becomes comparatively more attractive than exploring new growth opportunities as firms mature. Divestitures help stablished firms free management time and increase the focus on core competences. The testable implication of this attention hypothesis is that established firms are the main sellers of assets, that their divestiture activity increases when managerial capacity is scarcer, that they sell non-core activities, and that they return the divestiture proceeds to the providers of capital instead of reinvesting them in the firm. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Paper III: Corporate aging and lobbying expenditures Abstract Creative destruction forces constantly challenge established firms, especially in competitive markets. This paper asks whether corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to counteract the decline in rents over time. We find a statistically and economically significant positive relation between firm age and lobbying expenditures. Moreover, the documented age-effect is weaker when firms have unique products or operate in concentrated product markets. To address endogeneity, we use industry distress as an exogenous nonlegislative shock to future rents and show that established firms are relatively more likely to lobby when in distress. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that corporate lobbying efforts by established firms forestall the creative destruction process. In sum, our findings suggest that corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to retain profitability in competitive environments.

Grabbing or investment? On judging large-scale land acquisitions

Although analyses of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA) often contain an explicit or implicit normative judgment about such projects, they rarely deduce such judgment from a nuanced balancing of pros and cons. This paper uses assessments about a well-researched LSLA in Sierra Leone to show that a utilitarian approach tends to lead to the conclusion that positive effects prevail, whereas deontological approaches lead to an emphasis on negative aspects. LSLA are probably the most radical land-use change in the history of humankind. This process of radical transformation poses a challenge for balanced evaluations. Thus, we line out a framework that focuses on the options of local residents but sets boundaries of acceptability through the core contents of human rights. In addition, systemic implications of a project need to be regarded.

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of Government Bonds Market on Private Sector Investment (Japanese Case Study)

This paper reviews the relationship between public sector investment and private sector investment through government expenditures financed by government bonds in the Japanese economy. This study hypothesizes that deficit financing by bond issues does not crowd out private sector investment, and this finance method may crowd in. Thus the government increases bond issues and sells them in the domestic and international financial markets. This method does not affect interest rates because they are insensitive to government expenditures and they depend on interest rates levels in the international financial market more than in the domestic financial market because of globalization and integration among financial markets.

An empirical analysis on the efficiency of the microfinance investment market

This paper empirically analyzes the market efficiency of microfinance investment funds. For the empirical analysis, we use an index of the microfinance investment funds and apply two kinds of variance ratio tests to examine whether or not this index follows a random walk. We use the entire sample period from December 2003 to June 2010 as well as two sub-samples which divide the entire period before and after January 2007. The empirical evidence demonstrates that the index does not follow a random walk, suggesting that the market of the microfinance investment funds is not efficient. This result is not affected by changes in either empirical techniques or sample periods.

Effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India

The paper explores the effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India using the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS). Endogeneity of fertility is addressed using instruments and controlling for household fixed effects. Family size effect is also distinguished from the sibling sex composition effect. Previous literature has often failed to take endogeneity into account and shows a negative birth order effect for girls in India. Once endogeneity of fertility is addressed, there is no evidence for a negative birth order effect or sibling sex composition effect for girls. Results show that boys are worse off in households that have a higher proportion of boys specifically when they have older brothers.

A note on ethnic return migration policy in Kazakhstan : changing priorities and a growing dilemma

This paper offers a brief analysis of the legal aspects of the ethnic return migration policy of Kazakhstan, a post-Soviet Central Asian state that has been active in seeking ties with its diaspora since independence. This paper examines the definition of oralman (repatriates) and the establishment of a quota on the number of Kazakh immigrants who are eligible for government funds to show how the rationale and preferences in repatriation policy have changed over the years. By focusing on changes in migration-related legislation in the late 2000s and early 2010s, the paper notes that two key goals of Kazakhstan’s migration policy are not necessarily consistent with each other: the promotion of an ethnically based nation-building project by encouraging the "return" of co-ethnics living abroad, and building a workforce that is best suited for the development of the state’s economy.

Assessment of FDI impact on Thailand's production sectors : implications for investment promotion activities

This paper examines the overall and sectoral economic impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the Thai economy using the economic data from 2005-2013. In assessing the overall economic impact, it is found that FDI has contributed positively to Thailand's economic growth. However, when analyzing the sectoral details, the empirical results indicate that FDI has a varying impact on the productive sectors in Thailand. Out of the 9 sub-sectors covered by this study, 5 sub-sectors (manufacturing, construction, financial, wholesale, retail trade, and agriculture) show strong statistically-significant positive effects of FDI on the relevant sector's value-added output. Based on these findings, it is suggested that policy-makers, including the Board of Investment, should aim to promote FDI with special consideration of the sectoral impact that would enable Thailand's FDI promotion policies to be more productive and beneficial for the Thai economy.

A New Collaboration Between Josep Lluís Sert and Joan Miró on Their Return to Spain: From the Republic Pavilion to Joan Miró Studio

Ponencia publicada en las Actas del Congreso Internacional de la EAHN (EUROPEAN ARCHITECTURAL HISTORY NETWORK), celebrado en Bruselas del 31 Mayo -3 Junio 2012.

A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping