“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints under Devolution

A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. Its denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the public-sector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Welsh Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Wales in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Welsh HEIs. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the publicsector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Northern Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Northern Ireland. The motivation is to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Northern Irish HEIs. A comparative analysis will follow in due course. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the public sector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

Local consumption and territorial based accounting for CO2 Emissions

We examine the complications involved in attributing emissions at a sub-regional or local level. Speci cally, we look at how functional specialisation embedded within the metropolitan area can, via trade between sub-regions, create intra-metropolitan emissions interdependencies; and how this complicates environmental policy implementation in an analogous manner to international trade at the national level. For this purpose we use a 3-region emissions extended input-output model of the Glasgow metropolitan area (2 regions: city and surrounding suburban area) and the rest of Scotland. The model utilises data on commuter flows and household consumption to capture income and consumption flows across sub-regions. This enables a carbon attribution analysis at the sub-regional level, allowing us to shed light on the signi cant emissions interdependencies that can exist within metropolitan areas.

Fast numerical algorithms for the computation of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this paper, we develop numerical algorithms that use small requirements of storage and operations for the computation of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems (exact symplectic maps and Hamiltonian vector fields). The algorithms are based on the parameterization method and follow closely the proof of the KAM theorem given in [LGJV05] and [FLS07]. They essentially consist in solving a functional equation satisfied by the invariant tori by using a Newton method. Using some geometric identities, it is possible to perform a Newton step using little storage and few operations. In this paper we focus on the numerical issues of the algorithms (speed, storage and stability) and we refer to the mentioned papers for the rigorous results. We show how to compute efficiently both maximal invariant tori and whiskered tori, together with the associated invariant stable and unstable manifolds of whiskered tori. Moreover, we present fast algorithms for the iteration of the quasi-periodic cocycles and the computation of the invariant bundles, which is a preliminary step for the computation of invariant whiskered tori. Since quasi-periodic cocycles appear in other contexts, this section may be of independent interest. The numerical methods presented here allow to compute in a unified way primary and secondary invariant KAM tori. Secondary tori are invariant tori which can be contracted to a periodic orbit. We present some preliminary results that ensure that the methods are indeed implementable and fast. We postpone to a future paper optimized implementations and results on the breakdown of invariant tori.

A Survey of Active Learning Algorithms for Supervised Remote Sensing Image Classification

Defining an efficient training set is one of the most delicate phases for the success of remote sensing image classification routines. The complexity of the problem, the limited temporal and financial resources, as well as the high intraclass variance can make an algorithm fail if it is trained with a suboptimal dataset. Active learning aims at building efficient training sets by iteratively improving the model performance through sampling. A user-defined heuristic ranks the unlabeled pixels according to a function of the uncertainty of their class membership and then the user is asked to provide labels for the most uncertain pixels. This paper reviews and tests the main families of active learning algorithms: committee, large margin, and posterior probability-based. For each of them, the most recent advances in the remote sensing community are discussed and some heuristics are detailed and tested. Several challenging remote sensing scenarios are considered, including very high spatial resolution and hyperspectral image classification. Finally, guidelines for choosing the good architecture are provided for new and/or unexperienced user.

V-region-related and -unrelated immunosupression accompanying infections

This paper discusses current evidence for the relationship between polyclonal lymphocyte activation, specific immunossupression with decreased resistance, and autoimmune pathology, that are all often found associated with infections by a variety of virus, bacteria and parasites . The central question of class determination of immune effector activities is considered in the context of the cellular targets for nonspecific mitogenic activities associated with infection. A model is presented to integrate these findings: mitogenens produced by the microorganism or the infected cells are preferentially active on CD5 B cells, the resulting over-production of IL-10 will tend to bias all immune activities in to a Th-2mode of effector functions, with high titers of polyclonal antibodies and litle or no production of gamma IFN and other "inflamatory"lymphokines that often mediate resistance. In turn these conditions allow for parasite persistence and the corresponding long-term disregulation of self-directed immune reactivities, resulting in autoimmunity in the chronic phase. This model would predict that selective immunization with the mitogenic principles involved in desregulation, could stand better chances than strategies of vaccination based on immunopotentiation against othere, functionally neutral antigenic epitopes. It is argued, however, that the complexity of immune responses and their regulation together with our ignorance on the genetic controls of class-determination, offer poor prospects for a scientifically-based, rational development of vaccines in the near future. It is suggested that empirically-based and technologically developed vaccines might suceed, while basic scientific approaches are reinforced and given the time provide a better understanding of those process.

Pro-opiomelanocortin gene and melanin-based colour polymorphism in a reptile

Colour polymorphism is widespread among vertebrates and plays important roles in prey-predator interactions, thermoregulation, social competition, and sexual selection. However, the genetic mechanisms involved in colour variation have been studied mainly in domestic mammals and birds, whereas information on wild animals remains scarce. Interestingly, the pro-opiomelanocortin gene (POMC) gives rise to melanocortin hormones that trigger melanogenesis (by binding the melanocortin-1-receptor; Mc1r) and other physiological and behavioural functions (by binding the melanocortin receptors Mc1-5rs). Owing to its pleiotropic effect, the POMC gene could therefore account for the numerous covariations between pigmentation and other phenotypic traits. We screened the POMC and Mc1r genes in 107 wild asp vipers (Vipera aspis) that can exhibit four discrete colour morphs (two unpatterned morphs: concolor or melanistic; two patterned morphs: blotched or lined) in a single population. Our study revealed a correlation between a single nucleotide polymorphism situated within the 3-untranslated region of the POMC gene and colour variation, whereas Mc1r was not found to be polymorphic. To the best of our knowledge, we disclose for the first time a relationship between a mutation at the POMC gene and coloration in a wild animal, as well as a correlation between a genetic marker and coloration in a snake species. Interestingly, similar mutations within the POMC 3-untranslated region are linked to human obesity and alcohol and drug dependence. Combined with our results, this suggests that the 3-untranslated region of the POMC gene may play a role in its regulation in distant vertebrates.

Eligibility for statin therapy in primary prevention: discrepancies using different guidelines in a population-based study in Switzerland

Introduction: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Switzerland. Methods: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10-year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD >20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD >= 5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. Results: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC (Figure). Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24'310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). Conclusion: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Switzerland.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

The social transition of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the African region: evidence from three cross-sectional surveys in the Seychelles.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and several cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVRFs) and to assess whether this association has changed over a 15-year observation period. METHODS: Three independent population-based surveys of CVRFs were conducted in representative samples of all adults aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles, a small island state located east to Kenya, in 1989 (N=1081), 1994 (N=1067) and 2004 (N=1255). RESULTS: Among men, current smoking and heavy drinking were more prevalent in the low versus the high SES group, and obesity was less prevalent. The socioeconomic gradient in diabetes reversed over the study period from lower prevalence in the low versus the high SES group to higher prevalence in the low SES group. Hypercholesterolemia was less prevalent in the low versus the high SES group in 1989 but the prevalence was similar in the two groups in 2004. Hypertension showed no consistent socioeconomic pattern. Among women, the SES gradient in smoking tended to reverse over time from lower prevalence in the low SES group to lower prevalence in the high SES group. Obesity and diabetes were more common in the low versus the high SES group over the study period. Heavy drinking, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were not socially patterned among women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of several CVRFs was higher in low versus high SES groups in a rapidly developing country in the African region, and an increase of the burden of these CVRFs in the most disadvantaged groups of the population was observed over the 15 years study period.

Volumetric quantification of atherosclerotic plaque in CT considering partial volume effect.

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is quantified based on a computed tomography (CT) scan image. A calcified region is identified. Modified expectation maximization (MEM) of a statistical model for the calcified and background material is used to estimate the partial calcium content of the voxels. The algorithm limits the region over which MEM is performed. By using MEM, the statistical properties of the model are iteratively updated based on the calculated resultant calcium distribution from the previous iteration. The estimated statistical properties are used to generate a map of the partial calcium content in the calcified region. The volume of calcium in the calcified region is determined based on the map. The experimental results on a cardiac phantom, scanned 90 times using 15 different protocols, demonstrate that the proposed method is less sensitive to partial volume effect and noise, with average error of 9.5% (standard deviation (SD) of 5-7mm(3)) compared with 67% (SD of 3-20mm(3)) for conventional techniques. The high reproducibility of the proposed method for 35 patients, scanned twice using the same protocol at a minimum interval of 10 min, shows that the method provides 2-3 times lower interscan variation than conventional techniques.

A new Culicoides from The Amazonian Region, Brazil (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

A new Neotropical species of biting midge Culicoides (Haematomyidium), C. kampa Felippe-Bauer, Veras & Castellon, is described and illustrated based on female specimens from the Amazonian Region.

Malaria control in an agro-industrial settlement of Rondônia (Western Amazon Region, Brazil)

A malaria control pilot project was developed in the Urupá agro-industrial farm that is situated in the State of Rondônia (Western Amazon Region, Brazil). Around 180 inhabitants had been surveyed for the past five years. The control measures were based on (1) training a community agent to perform on the spot microscopical diagnosis of malaria and to treat the uncomplicated cases of malaria; (2) limiting the use of insecticides to a short period before the high transmission season. This resulted in a significant reduction in the time between the onset of clinical symptoms and specific chemotherapy which fell from 3.5 to 1.3 days. In relation to the previous three reference years the total number of malaria cases was reduced to 50% in the first year and to 25% in the second year. The introduction of these measures coincided with pronounced reduction in the frequency of Plasmodium falciparum infections but this was less marked for P. vivax infections. In the second year of the pilot experiment there was no P. falciparum transmission on the farm. During the last decade there was a general decrease in the endemicity of malaria in the State of Rondônia. The linear regression coefficient values indicate that the decline was more pronounced in Urupá than in the general municipality and that the falciparum malaria API in Urupá farm is significantly lower than in the general municipality of Candeias were the farm is situated.

Visceral leishmaniasis in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the last few years the number of human cases of American visceral leishmaniasis in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH), Minas Gerais, Brazil has increased, indicating an elevation in the transmission rate of the disease. The total number of notified human cases in the MRBH since 1994, when the first case was identified, up to 1999 was 345 of which 223 (65%) were from the city itself, indicating an urbanization of the disease in this region of Minas Gerais. The age distribution of visceral leishmaniasis cases in the MRBH shows a higher prevalence in children from 0-4 years old, responsible for 28.9% of the notifications. Clinical and immunological findings from dogs infected with Leishmania chagasi are described. The majority of these animals showed no sign of the disease. Sera from all infected dogs showed detectable Leishmania-induced high titles of antibodies based on the results of an indirect fluorescent antibody test. Samples of isolated Leishmania from human and dogs were characterized as L. (L.) chagasi by biochemical and molecular techniques.