Dissipation in quasistatically driven disordered systems

This work presents an analysis of hysteresis and dissipation in quasistatically driven disordered systems. The study is based on the random field Ising model with fluctuationless dynamics. It enables us to sort out the fraction of the energy input by the driving field stored in the system and the fraction dissipated in every step of the transformation. The dissipation is directly related to the occurrence of avalanches, and does not scale with the size of Barkhausen magnetization jumps. In addition, the change in magnetic field between avalanches provides a measure of the energy barriers between consecutive metastable states

Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: a logical approach fro interpreting the evidence

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

Potential of Spectroradiometry to Classify Soil Clay Content

ABSTRACT Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is a fast and cheap alternative for soil clay, but needs further investigation to assess the scope of application. The purpose of the study was to develop a linear regression model to predict clay content from DRS data, to classify the soils into three textural classes, similar to those defined by a regulation of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. The DRS data of 412 soil samples, from the 0.0-0.5 m layer, from different locations in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were measured at wavelengths of 350 to 2,500 nm in the laboratory. The fitting of the linear regression model developed to predict soil clay content from the DRS data was based on a R2 value of 0.74 and 0.75, with a RMSE of 7.82 and 8.51 % for the calibration and validation sets, respectively. Soil texture classification had an overall accuracy of 79.0 % (calibration) and 80.9 % (validation). The heterogeneity of soil samples affected the performance of the prediction models. Future studies should consider a previous classification of soil samples in different groups by soil type, parent material and/or sampling region.

Home versus in-hospital treatment of outpatients with acute deep venous thrombosis of the lower limbs.

BACKGROUND: Some physicians are still concerned about the safety of treatment at home of patients with acute deep venous thrombosis (DVT). METHODS: We used data from the RIETE (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica) registry to compare the outcomes in consecutive outpatients with acute lower limb DVT according to initial treatment at home or in the hospital. A propensity score-matching analysis was carried out with a logistic regression model. RESULTS: As of December 2012, 13,493 patients had been enrolled. Of these, 4456 (31%) were treated at home. Patients treated at home were more likely to be male and younger and to weigh more; they were less likely than those treated in the hospital to have chronic heart failure, lung disease, renal insufficiency, anemia, recent bleeding, immobilization, or cancer. During the first week of anticoagulation, 27 patients (0.20%) suffered pulmonary embolism (PE), 12 (0.09%) recurrent DVT, and 51 (0.38%) major bleeding; 80 (0.59%) died. When only patients treated at home were considered, 12 (0.27%) had PE, 4 (0.09%) had recurrent DVT, 6 (0.13%) bled, and 4 (0.09%) died (no fatal PE, 3 fatal bleeds). After propensity analysis, patients treated at home had a similar rate of venous thromboembolism recurrences and a lower rate of major bleeding (odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-1.0) or death (odds ratio, 0.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.7) within the first week compared with those treated in the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: In outpatients with DVT, home treatment was associated with a better outcome than treatment in the hospital. These data may help safely treat more DVT patients at home.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Pretreatment with statins improves early outcome in patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke: a pleiotropic effect of statins or a beneficial effect of hypercholesterolemia?

Background: Data from different studies suggest a favourable association between pretreatment with statins or hypercholesterolemia and outcome after ischaemic stroke. We examined whether there were differences in in-hospital mortality according to the presence or absence of statin therapy in a large population of first-ever ischaemic stroke patients and assessed the influence of statins upon early death and spontaneous neurological recovery. Methods: In 2,082 consecutive patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke collected from a prospective hospital-based stroke registry during a period of 19 years (1986-2004), statin use or hypercholesterolemia before stroke was documented in 381 patients. On the other hand, favourable outcome defined as grades 0-2 in the modified Rankin scale was recorded in 382 patients. Results: Early outcome was better in the presence of statin therapy or hypercholesterolemia (cholesterol levels were not measured) with significant differences between the groups with and without pretreatment with statins in in-hospital mortality (6% vs 13.3%, P = 0.001) and symptom-free (22% vs 17.5%, P = 0.025) and severe functional limitation (6.6% vs 11.5%, P = 0.002) at hospital discharge, as well as lower rates of infectious respiratory complications during hospitalization. In the logistic regression model, statin therapy was the only variable inversely associated with in-hospital death (odds ratio 0.57) and directly associated with favourable outcome (odds ratio 1.32).

Integrated methodologies to study human transcriptional regulation from functional genomics data

Abstract : The human body is composed of a huge number of cells acting together in a concerted manner. The current understanding is that proteins perform most of the necessary activities in keeping a cell alive. The DNA, on the other hand, stores the information on how to produce the different proteins in the genome. Regulating gene transcription is the first important step that can thus affect the life of a cell, modify its functions and its responses to the environment. Regulation is a complex operation that involves specialized proteins, the transcription factors. Transcription factors (TFs) can bind to DNA and activate the processes leading to the expression of genes into new proteins. Errors in this process may lead to diseases. In particular, some transcription factors have been associated with a lethal pathological state, commonly known as cancer, associated with uncontrolled cellular proliferation, invasiveness of healthy tissues and abnormal responses to stimuli. Understanding cancer-related regulatory programs is a difficult task, often involving several TFs interacting together and influencing each other's activity. This Thesis presents new computational methodologies to study gene regulation. In addition we present applications of our methods to the understanding of cancer-related regulatory programs. The understanding of transcriptional regulation is a major challenge. We address this difficult question combining computational approaches with large collections of heterogeneous experimental data. In detail, we design signal processing tools to recover transcription factors binding sites on the DNA from genome-wide surveys like chromatin immunoprecipitation assays on tiling arrays (ChIP-chip). We then use the localization about the binding of TFs to explain expression levels of regulated genes. In this way we identify a regulatory synergy between two TFs, the oncogene C-MYC and SP1. C-MYC and SP1 bind preferentially at promoters and when SP1 binds next to C-NIYC on the DNA, the nearby gene is strongly expressed. The association between the two TFs at promoters is reflected by the binding sites conservation across mammals, by the permissive underlying chromatin states 'it represents an important control mechanism involved in cellular proliferation, thereby involved in cancer. Secondly, we identify the characteristics of TF estrogen receptor alpha (hERa) target genes and we study the influence of hERa in regulating transcription. hERa, upon hormone estrogen signaling, binds to DNA to regulate transcription of its targets in concert with its co-factors. To overcome the scarce experimental data about the binding sites of other TFs that may interact with hERa, we conduct in silico analysis of the sequences underlying the ChIP sites using the collection of position weight matrices (PWMs) of hERa partners, TFs FOXA1 and SP1. We combine ChIP-chip and ChIP-paired-end-diTags (ChIP-pet) data about hERa binding on DNA with the sequence information to explain gene expression levels in a large collection of cancer tissue samples and also on studies about the response of cells to estrogen. We confirm that hERa binding sites are distributed anywhere on the genome. However, we distinguish between binding sites near promoters and binding sites along the transcripts. The first group shows weak binding of hERa and high occurrence of SP1 motifs, in particular near estrogen responsive genes. The second group shows strong binding of hERa and significant correlation between the number of binding sites along a gene and the strength of gene induction in presence of estrogen. Some binding sites of the second group also show presence of FOXA1, but the role of this TF still needs to be investigated. Different mechanisms have been proposed to explain hERa-mediated induction of gene expression. Our work supports the model of hERa activating gene expression from distal binding sites by interacting with promoter bound TFs, like SP1. hERa has been associated with survival rates of breast cancer patients, though explanatory models are still incomplete: this result is important to better understand how hERa can control gene expression. Thirdly, we address the difficult question of regulatory network inference. We tackle this problem analyzing time-series of biological measurements such as quantification of mRNA levels or protein concentrations. Our approach uses the well-established penalized linear regression models where we impose sparseness on the connectivity of the regulatory network. We extend this method enforcing the coherence of the regulatory dependencies: a TF must coherently behave as an activator, or a repressor on all its targets. This requirement is implemented as constraints on the signs of the regressed coefficients in the penalized linear regression model. Our approach is better at reconstructing meaningful biological networks than previous methods based on penalized regression. The method is tested on the DREAM2 challenge of reconstructing a five-genes/TFs regulatory network obtaining the best performance in the "undirected signed excitatory" category. Thus, these bioinformatics methods, which are reliable, interpretable and fast enough to cover large biological dataset, have enabled us to better understand gene regulation in humans.

Midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and procalcitonin improve survival prediction in VAP.

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) affects mortality, morbidity and cost of critical care. Reliable risk estimation might improve end-of-life decisions, resource allocation and outcome. Several scoring systems for survival prediction have been established and optimised over the last decades. Recently, new biomarkers have gained interest in the prognostic field. We assessed whether midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and procalcitonin (PCT) improve the predictive value of the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in VAP. Specified end-points of a prospective multinational trial including 101 patients with VAP were analysed. Death <28 days after VAP onset was the primary end-point. MR-proANP and PCT were elevated at the onset of VAP in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (p = 0.003 and p = 0.017, respectively) and their slope of decline differed significantly (p = 0.018 and p = 0.039, respectively). Patients with the highest MR-proANP quartile at VAP onset were at increased risk for death (log rank p = 0.013). In a logistic regression model, MR-proANP was identified as the best predictor of survival. Adding MR-proANP and PCT to SAPS II and SOFA improved their predictive properties (area under the curve 0.895 and 0.880). We conclude that the combination of two biomarkers, MR-proANP and PCT, improve survival prediction of clinical severity scores in VAP.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Can Valproic Acid be an Inducer of Clozapine Metabolism?

Introduction: Prior clozapine studies indicated no effects, mild inhibition or induction of valproic acid (VPA) on clozapine metabolism. The hypotheses that (i) VPA is a net inducer of clozapine metabolism, and (ii) smoking modifies this inductive effect were tested in a therapeutic drug monitoring study. Methods: After excluding strong inhibitors and inducers, 353 steady-state total clozapine (clozapine plus norclozapine) concentrations provided by 151 patients were analyzed using a random intercept linear model. Results: VPA appeared to be an inducer of clozapine metabolism since total plasma clozapine concentrations in subjects taking VPA were significantly lower (27% lower; 95% confidence interval, 14-39%) after controlling for confounding variables including smoking (35% lower, 28-56%). Discussion: Prospective studies are needed to definitively establish that VPA may (i) be an inducer of clozapine metabolism when induction prevails over competitive inhibition, and (ii) be an inducer even in smokers who are under the influence of smoking inductive effects on clozapine metabolism.

Fatigue shifts and scatters heart rate variability in elite endurance athletes

PURPOSE: This longitudinal study aimed at comparing heart rate variability (HRV) in elite athletes identified either in 'fatigue' or in 'no-fatigue' state in 'real life' conditions. METHODS: 57 elite Nordic-skiers were surveyed over 4 years. R-R intervals were recorded supine (SU) and standing (ST). A fatigue state was quoted with a validated questionnaire. A multilevel linear regression model was used to analyze relationships between heart rate (HR) and HRV descriptors [total spectral power (TP), power in low (LF) and high frequency (HF) ranges expressed in ms(2) and normalized units (nu)] and the status without and with fatigue. The variables not distributed normally were transformed by taking their common logarithm (log10). RESULTS: 172 trials were identified as in a 'fatigue' and 891 as in 'no-fatigue' state. All supine HR and HRV parameters (Beta+/-SE) were significantly different (P<0.0001) between 'fatigue' and 'no-fatigue': HRSU (+6.27+/-0.61 bpm), logTPSU (-0.36+/-0.04), logLFSU (-0.27+/-0.04), logHFSU (-0.46+/-0.05), logLF/HFSU (+0.19+/-0.03), HFSU(nu) (-9.55+/-1.33). Differences were also significant (P<0.0001) in standing: HRST (+8.83+/-0.89), logTPST (-0.28+/-0.03), logLFST (-0.29+/-0.03), logHFST (-0.32+/-0.04). Also, intra-individual variance of HRV parameters was larger (P<0.05) in the 'fatigue' state (logTPSU: 0.26 vs. 0.07, logLFSU: 0.28 vs. 0.11, logHFSU: 0.32 vs. 0.08, logTPST: 0.13 vs. 0.07, logLFST: 0.16 vs. 0.07, logHFST: 0.25 vs. 0.14). CONCLUSION: HRV was significantly lower in 'fatigue' vs. 'no-fatigue' but accompanied with larger intra-individual variance of HRV parameters in 'fatigue'. The broader intra-individual variance of HRV parameters might encompass different changes from no-fatigue state, possibly reflecting different fatigue-induced alterations of HRV pattern.

Safety and efficacy of the peptide-based therapeutic vaccine for HIV-1, Vacc-4x: a phase 2 randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Present combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) alone does not cure HIV infection and requires lifelong drug treatment. The potential role of HIV therapeutic vaccines as part of an HIV cure is under consideration. Our aim was to assess the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of Vacc-4x, a peptide-based HIV-1 therapeutic vaccine targeting conserved domains on p24(Gag), in adults infected with HIV-1. METHODS: Between July, 2008, and June, 2010, we did a multinational double-blind, randomised, phase 2 study comparing Vacc-4x with placebo. Participants were adults infected with HIV-1 who were aged 18-55 years and virologically suppressed on cART (viral load <50 copies per mL) with CD4 cell counts of 400 × 10(6) cells per L or greater. The trial was done at 18 sites in Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) to Vacc-4x or placebo. Group allocation was masked from participants and investigators. Four primary immunisations, weekly for 4 weeks, containing Vacc-4x (or placebo) were given intradermally after administration of adjuvant. Booster immunisations were given at weeks 16 and 18. At week 28, cART was interrupted for up to 24 weeks. The coprimary endpoints were cART resumption and changes in CD4 counts during treatment interruption. Analyses were by modified intention to treat: all participants who received one intervention. Furthermore, safety, viral load, and immunogenicity (as measured by ELISPOT and proliferation assays) were assessed. The 52 week follow-up period was completed in June, 2011. For the coprimary endpoints the proportion of participants who met the criteria for cART resumption was analysed with a logistic regression model with the treatment effect being assessed in a model including country as a covariate. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00659789. FINDINGS: 174 individuals were screened; because of slow recruitment, enrolment stopped with 136 of a planned 345 participants and 93 were randomly assigned to receive Vacc-4x and 43 to receive placebo. There were no differences between the two groups for the primary efficacy endpoints in those participants who stopped cART at week 28. Of the participants who resumed cART, 30 (34%) were in the Vacc-4x group and 11 (29%) in the placebo group, and percentage changes in CD4 counts were not significant (mean treatment difference -5·71, 95% CI -13·01 to 1·59). However, a significant difference in viral load was noted for the Vacc-4x group both at week 48 (median 23 100 copies per mL Vacc-4x vs 71 800 copies per mL placebo; p=0·025) and week 52 (median 19 550 copies per mL vs 51 000 copies per mL; p=0·041). One serious adverse event, exacerbation of multiple sclerosis, was reported as possibly related to study treatment. Vacc-4x was immunogenic, inducing proliferative responses in both CD4 and CD8 T-cell populations. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of participants resuming cART before end of study and change in CD4 counts during the treatment interruption showed no benefit of vaccination. Vacc-4x was safe, well tolerated, immunogenic, seemed to contribute to a viral-load setpoint reduction after cART interruption, and might be worth consideration in future HIV-cure investigative strategies. FUNDING: Norwegian Research Council GLOBVAC Program and Bionor Pharma ASA.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Incidencia de la incapacidad temporal por contingencia común y profesional en la muestra continua de vidas laborales en 2009

Objetivo: Describir la incidencia de la incapacidad temporal por contingencia común (ITcc) y profesional (ITcp) iniciada en 2009 en afiliados a la Seguridad Social (SS) que forman parte de la Muestra Continua de Vida Laboral.Métodos: Cohorte formada por 873.008 afiliados a la SS en España que registraron 163.008 episodios de IT con un tiempo acumulado total en riesgo de 675.923,6 trabajadores-año. Se estimó la tasa de incidencia de todos los primeros episodios de IT y por trastornos musculo-esqueléticos (TME) según variables demográficas y laborales. Posteriormente se calcularon las razones de tasas crudas (RTc) y ajustadas (RTa) mediante un modelo de regresión Poisson.Resultados: La incidencia de la ITcc e ITcp fue de 23,1 y 1,0 casos por 100 trabajadores-año, respectivamente. La incidencia por ITcc fue superior en mujeres, en menores de 26 años y en Navarra (32,8 casos por 100 trabajadores-año), y por ITcp las mayores incidencias se observaron en hombres y en Galicia. Por diagnóstico, los TME presentaron 424,7 casos y 3,6 casos por 10.000 trabajadores-año según contingencia común y profesional respectivamente. Por otra parte, los trabajadores temporales tuvieron más riesgo de desarrollar ITcp (RTa=1,09;IC95%=1,04-1,15) e ITcc (RTa=1,02;IC95%=1,01-1,03) respecto a los permanentes.Conclusiones: La incidencia de la IT sigue un mismo patrón según edad, régimen de afiliación y relación laboral. Por tipo de contingencia se observaron diferencias en la ocupación, sexo, tamaño de empresa, comunidad autónoma y actividad económica. Es necesario estudiar con más detenimiento las diferencias observadas por actividad económica y tipo de relación contractual.

¿La incidencia de la pobreza discrimina por razones de género? : Análisis de los factores determinantes en el caso español

El presente trabajo traslada el debate académico alrededor del mayor riesgo de pobreza que afrontan las mujeres en relación a los hombres al contexto español. Tras una breve revisión bibliográfica de los datos disponibles sobre la pobreza femenina en países industrializados y sus posibles causantes, se ponen a prueba esos mismos factores potencialmente culpables en el caso español. Del EU-SILC de 2010 se ha sacado una muestra formada únicamente por mujeres y hombres que o bien viven solos o con hijos a su cargo y, partiendo de ella, el método de la regresión logística ha concluido que hay factores exclusivamente explicativos de la pobreza femenina. Ser madre soltera, ser joven (entre 16 y 25 años) y no haber nacido en España tienen una importante capacidad explicativa de la pobreza femenina mientras no son significativas como explicación de la pobreza masculina. Si a estos factores añadimos no tener un trabajo, un bajo logro educativo y no recibir ningún subsidio individual, obtenemos un conjunto de factores que explican un 26.8% de los casos de mujeres españolas pobres que viven solas o son madres solteras. Estos datos ponen de relieve la necesidad de más investigaciones al respecto que consigan un mayor poder explicativo.