Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

The Effects of Density, Spatial Pattern, and Competitive Symmetry on Size Variation in Simulated Plant Populations

Patterns of size inequality in crowded plant populations are often taken to be indicative of the degree of size asymmetry of competition, but recent research suggests that some of the patterns attributed to size‐asymmetric competition could be due to spatial structure. To investigate the theoretical relationships between plant density, spatial pattern, and competitive size asymmetry in determining size variation in crowded plant populations, we developed a spatially explicit, individual‐based plant competition model based on overlapping zones of influence. The zone of influence of each plant is modeled as a circle, growing in two dimensions, and is allometrically related to plant biomass. The area of the circle represents resources potentially available to the plant, and plants compete for resources in areas in which they overlap. The size asymmetry of competition is reflected in the rules for dividing up the overlapping areas. Theoretical plant populations were grown in random and in perfectly uniform spatial patterns at four densities under size‐asymmetric and size‐symmetric competition. Both spatial pattern and size asymmetry contributed to size variation, but their relative importance varied greatly over density and over time. Early in stand development, spatial pattern was more important than the symmetry of competition in determining the degree of size variation within the population, but after plants grew and competition intensified, the size asymmetry of competition became a much more important source of size variation. Size variability was slightly higher at higher densities when competition was symmetric and plants were distributed nonuniformly in space. In a uniform spatial pattern, size variation increased with density only when competition was size asymmetric. Our results suggest that when competition is size asymmetric and intense, it will be more important in generating size variation than is local variation in density. Our results and the available data are consistent with the hypothesis that high levels of size inequality commonly observed within crowded plant populations are largely due to size‐asymmetric competition, not to variation in local density.

Volcanic terrain and the possible periglacial formation of "excess ice" at the mid-latitudes of Utopia Planitia, Mars

At the mid-latitudes of Utopia Planitia (UP), Mars, a suite of spatially-associated landforms exhibit geomorphological traits that, on Earth, would be consistent with periglacial processes and the possible freeze-thaw cycling of water. The suite comprises small-sized polygonally-patterned ground, polygon-junction and -margin pits, and scalloped, rimless depressions. Typically, the landforms incise a dark-toned terrain that is thought to be ice-rich. Here, we investigate the dark-toned terrain by using high resolution images from the HiRISE as well as near-infrared spectral-data from the OMEGA and CRISM. The terrain displays erosional characteristics consistent with a sedimentary nature and near-infrared spectra characterised by a blue slope similar to that of weathered basaltic-tephra. We also describe volcanic terrain that is dark-toned and periglacially-modified in the Kamchatka mountain-range of eastern Russia. The terrain is characterised by weathered tephra inter-bedded with snow, ice-wedge polygons and near-surface excess ice. The excess ice forms in the pore space of the tephra as the result of snow-melt infiltration and, subsequently, in-situ freezing. Based on this possible analogue, we construct a three-stage mechanism that explains the possible ice-enrichment of a broad expanse of dark-toned terrain at the mid-latitudes of UP: (1) the dark-toned terrain accumulates and forms via the regional deposition of sediments sourced from explosive volcanism; (2) the volcanic sediments are blanketed by atmospherically-precipitated (H2O) snow, ice or an admixture of the two, either concurrent with the volcanic-events or between discrete events; and, (3) under the influence of high obliquity or explosive volcanism, boundary conditions tolerant of thaw evolve and this, in turn, permits the migration, cycling and eventual formation of excess ice in the volcanic sediments. Over time, and through episodic iterations of this scenario, excess ice forms to decametres of depth. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Texas driver responsibility program: A preliminary analysis of the impact on impaired driving and trauma system funding

Objective. In 2003, the State of Texas instituted the Driver Responsibility Program (TDRP), a program consisting of a driving infraction point system coupled with a series of graded fines and annual surcharges for specific traffic violations such as driving while intoxicated (DWI). Approximately half of the revenues generated are earmarked to be disbursed to the state's trauma system to cover uncompensated trauma care costs. This study examined initial program implementation, the impact of trauma system funding, and initial impact on impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. A model for targeted media campaigns to improve the program's deterrence effects was developed. ^ Methods. Data from two independent driver survey samples (conducted in 1999 and 2005), department of public safety records, state health department data and a state auditor's report were used to evaluate the program's initial implementation, impact and outcome with respect to drivers' impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behavior (based on constructs of social cognitive theory) and hospital uncompensated trauma care funding. Survey results were used to develop a regression model of high risk drivers who should be targeted to improve program outcome with respect to deterring impaired driving. ^ Results. Low driver compliance with fee payment (28%) and program implementation problems were associated with lower surcharge revenues in the first two years ($59.5 million versus $525 million predicted). Program revenue distribution to trauma hospitals was associated with a 16% increase in designated trauma centers. Survey data demonstrated that only 28% of drivers are aware of the TDRP and that there has been no initial impact on impaired driving behavior. Logistical regression modeling suggested that target media campaigns highlighting the likelihood of DWI detection by law enforcement and the increased surcharges associated with the TDRP are required to deter impaired driving. ^ Conclusions. Although the TDRP raised nearly $60 million in surcharge revenue for the Texas trauma system over the first two years, this study did not find evidence of a change in impaired driving knowledge, attitudes or behaviors from 1999 to 2005. Further research is required to measure whether the program is associated with decreased alcohol-related traffic fatalities. ^

Occupational health and safety among commercial sex workers in Ghana

The topic of occupational health and safety (OHS) has been investigated for many years and continues to be a concept often researched today. Generally speaking OHS research has been centered around food safety, construction safety, transportation safety, fire safety, drug and alcohol testing, health and medical management, and industrial hygiene to name a few. However, the concept of OHS concerning female commercial sex workers (FCSWs) has rarely been investigated, often neglected, seldom discussed and is lacking in sound research. Although regarded as the "oldest profession", commercial sex work (CSW) has consistently been ignored, disregarded and under-researched due to the illegality and stigmatization of prostitution. This paper reviews occupational safety and health issues faced by FCSWs in Tema and Accra, Ghana, through in-depth interviews, visits to women's homes, field work, informal conversations and participant observations with FCSWs over a period of two months. Facets of OHS that emerged among FCSWs included sexually transmissible infections, risks associated with harassment and violence from police and clients, alcohol and drug use, irregular hospital visits and/or lack of hospital visits, immigration issues, legal and policing risks. We argue that CSW be viewed as an occupation in great need of interventions to reduce workplace risks and improve the health and safety of FCSWs^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

Net primary productivity, POC export, Th234 and U238 activities and abundance of autotrophs during U.S.C.G.C. Healy cruises HLY0802 and HLY0803

Seasonal patterns in the partitioning of phytoplankton carbon during receding sea ice conditions in the eastern Bering Sea water column are presented using rates of 14C net primary productivity (NPP), phototrophic plankton carbon content, and POC export fluxes from shelf and slope waters in the spring (March 30-May 6) and summer (July 3-30) of 2008. At ice-covered and marginal ice zone (MIZ) stations on the inner and middle shelf in spring, NPP averaged 76 ± 93 mmol C/m**2/d, and in ice-free waters on the outer shelf NPP averaged 102 ± 137 mmol C/m**2/d. In summer, rates of NPP were more uniform across the entire shelf and averaged 43 ± 23 mmol C/m**2/d over the entire shelf. A concomitant shift was observed in the phototrophic pico-, nano-, and microplankton community in the chlorophyll maximum, from a diatom dominated system (80 ± 12% autotrophic C) in ice covered and MIZ waters in spring, to a microflagellate dominated system (71 ± 31% autotrophic C) in summer. Sediment trap POC fluxes near the 1% PAR depth in ice-free slope waters increased by 70% from spring to summer, from 10 ± 7 mmol C/m**2/d to 17 ± 5 mmol C/m**2/d, respectively. Over the shelf, under-ice trap fluxes at 20 m were higher, averaging 43 ± 17 mmol C/m**2/d POC export over the shelf and slope estimated from 234Th deficits averaged 11 ± 5 mmol C/m**2/d in spring and 10 ± 2 mmol C/m**2/d in summer. Average e-ratios calculated on a station-by-station basis decreased by ~ 30% from spring to summer, from 0.46 ± 0.48 in ice-covered and MIZ waters, to 0.33 ± 0.26 in summer, though the high uncertainty prevents a statistical differentiation of these data.

Concentration of organic compounds in slush, under-ice water, and the snow-ice fast-ice cover of the southeast sector of the Antarctic in April 2008

Data are presented on concentration of hydrocarbons (HC) relative to concentrations of suspended matter, lipids, organic carbon, and chlorophyll a in surface waters and snow-ice cover of the East Antarctic coastal areas. It was shown that growth of concentrations of aliphatic HC (AHC) to 30 µg/l in surface waters takes place in frontal zones and under young ice formation. AHC concentration in snow increases with growth of aerosol concentration in the atmosphere. In the lower part of ice, at the boundary with seawater, despite low temperatures, autochthonous processes may provide high AHC concentrations (up to 289 µg/l). Within the snow-ice cover on fast ice, concentration co-variations of all the compounds considered take place.

Phosphorus components and barite in untreated and in carbonate-free sediments of ODP Hole 199-1221C

We determined changes in equatorial Pacific phosphorus (µmol P/g) and barite (BaSO4; wt%) concentrations at high resolution (2 cm) across the Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 199 Site 1221 (153.40 to 154.80 meters below seafloor [mbsf]). Oxide-associated, authigenic, and organic P sequentially extracted from bulk sediment were used to distinguish reactive P from detrital P. We separated barite from bulk sediment and compared its morphology with that of modern unaltered biogenic barite to check for diagenesis. On a CaCO3-free basis, reactive P concentrations are relatively constant and high (323 µmol P/g or ~1 wt%). Barite concentrations range from 0.05 to 5.6 wt%, calculated on a CaCO3-free basis, and show significant variability over this time interval. Shipboard measurements of P and Ba in bulk sediments are systematically lower (by ~25%) than shore-based concentrations and likely indicate problems with shipboard standard calibrations. The presence of Mn oxides and the size, crystal morphology, and sulfur isotopes of barite imply deposition in sulfate-rich pore fluids. Relatively constant reactive P, organic C, and biogenic silica concentrations calculated on a CaCO3-free basis indicate generally little variation in organic C, reactive P, and biogenic opal burial across the P/E boundary, whereas variable barite concentrations indicate significant changes in export productivity. Low barite Ba/reactive P ratios before and immediately after the Benthic Extinction Event (BEE) may indicate efficient nutrient burial, and, if nutrient burial and organic C burial are linked, high relative organic C burial that could temporarily drawdown CO2 at this site. This interpretation requires postdepositional oxidation of organic C because organic C to reactive P ratios are low throughout the section. After the BEE, higher barite Ba/reactive P ratios combined with higher barite Ba concentrations may imply that higher export productivity was coupled with unchanged reactive P burial, indicating efficient nutrient and possibly also organic C recycling in the water column. If the nutrient recycling is decoupled from organic C, the high export production could be indicative of drawdown of CO2. However, the observation that organic C burial is not high where barite burial is high may imply that either C sequestration was restricted to the deep ocean and thus occurred only on timescales of the deep ocean mixing or that postdepositional oxidation (burn down) of organic matter affected the sediments. The decoupling of barite and opal may result from low opal preservation or production that is not diatom based.

Diurnal and seasonal measurements of seawater chemistry, temperature and PAR in Hurricane Hole, U.S. Virgin Islands - 2010-2012

Risk analyses indicate that more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by climate change and local anthropogenic impacts by the year 2030 under "business-as-usual" climate scenarios. Increasing temperatures and solar radiation cause coral bleaching that has resulted in extensive coral mortality. Increasing carbon dioxide reduces seawater pH, slows coral growth, and may cause loss of reef structure. Management strategies include establishment of marine protected areas with environmental conditions that promote reef resiliency. However, few resilient reefs have been identified, and resiliency factors are poorly defined. Here we characterize the first natural, non-reef coral refuge from thermal stress and ocean acidification and identify resiliency factors for mangrove-coral habitats. We measured diurnal and seasonal variations in temperature, salinity, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and seawater chemistry; characterized substrate parameters; and examined water circulation patterns in mangrove communities where scleractinian corals are growing attached to and under mangrove prop roots in Hurricane Hole, St. John, US Virgin Islands. Additionally, we inventoried the coral species and quantified incidences of coral bleaching, mortality, and recovery for two major reef-building corals, Colpophyllia natans and Diploria labyrinthiformis, growing in mangrove-shaded and exposed (unshaded) areas. Over 30 species of scleractinian corals were growing in association with mangroves. Corals were thriving in low-light (more than 70% attenuation of incident PAR) from mangrove shading and at higher temperatures than nearby reef tract corals. A higher percentage of C. natans colonies were living shaded by mangroves, and no shaded colonies were bleached. Fewer D. labyrinthiformis colonies were shaded by mangroves, however more unshaded colonies were bleached. A combination of substrate and habitat heterogeneity, proximity of different habitat types, hydrographic conditions, and biological influences on seawater chemistry generate chemical conditions that buffer against ocean acidification. This previously undocumented refuge for corals provides evidence for adaptation of coastal organisms and ecosystem transition due to recent climate change. Identifying and protecting other natural, non-reef coral refuges is critical for sustaining corals and other reef species into the future.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of coral Acropora muricata during experiments and observations in La Saline fringing reef, La Reunion Island, western Indian Ocean, 2011

The effect of decreasing aragonite saturation state (Omega Arag) of seawater (elevated pCO2) on calcification rates of Acropora muricata was studied using nubbins prepared from parent colonies located at two sites of La Saline reef (La Réunion Island, western Indian Ocean): a back-reef site (BR) affected by nutrient-enriched groundwater discharge (mainly nitrate), and a reef flat site (RF) with low terrigenous inputs. Protein and chlorophyll a content of the nubbins, as well as zooxanthellae abundance, were lower at RF than BR. Nubbins were incubated at ~27°C over 2 h under sunlight, in filtered seawater manipulated to get differing initial pCO2 (1,440-340 µatm), Omega Arag (1.4-4.0), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations (2,100-1,850 µmol/kg). Increasing DIC concentrations at constant total alkalinity (AT) resulted in a decrease in Omega Arag and an increase in pCO2. AT at the beginning of the incubations was kept at a natural level of 2,193 ± 6 µmol/kg (mean ± SD). Net photosynthesis (NP) and calcification were calculated from changes in pH and AT during the incubations. Calcification decrease in response to doubling pCO2 relative to preindustrial level was 22% for RF nubbins. When normalized to surface area of the nubbins, (1) NP and calcification were higher at BR than RF, (2) NP increased in high pCO2 treatments at BR compared to low pCO2 treatments, and (3) calcification was not related to Omega Arag at BR. When normalized to NP, calcification was linearly related to Omega Arag at both sites, and the slopes of the relationships were not significantly different. The increase in NP at BR in the high pCO2 treatments may have increased calcification and thus masked the negative effect of low Omega Arag on calcification. Removing the effect of NP variations at BR showed that calcification declined in a similar manner with decreased Omega Arag (increased pCO2) whatever the nutrient loading.

Environmental magnetism, geochemical measurements and colour reflectance of two sediment cores: GeoB4905-4 off Cameroon and GeoB4906-3 off Gabon

We combine environmental magnetism, geochemical measurements and colour reflectance to study two late Quaternary sediment cores: GeoB 4905-4 at 2° 30 N off Cameroon and GeoB 4906-3 at 0° 44 N off Gabon. This area is suitable for investigating precipitation changes over Central and West Africa because of its potential to record input of aeolian and fluvial sediments. Three magnetozones representing low and high degree of alteration of the primary rock magnetic signals were identified. The magnetic signature is dominated by fine-grained magnetite, while residual haematite prevails in the reduced intervals, showing increase in concentration and fine grain size at wet intervals. Our records also show millennial-scale changes in climate during the last glacial and interglacial cycles. At the northern location, the past 5.5 ka are marked by high-frequency oscillations of Ti and colour reflectance, which suggests aeolian input and hence aridity. The southern location remains under the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and thus did not register aeolian signals. The millennial-scale climatic signals indicate that drier and/or colder conditions persisted during the late Holocene and are synchronous with the 900 a climatic cycles observed in Northern Hemisphere ice core records.

Annual response of two Mediterranean azooxanthellate temperate corals to low-pH and high-temperature conditions

Ocean acidification (OA) and warming related to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 have been shown to have detrimental effects on several marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate structures such as corals. In this study, we evaluate the response of two Mediterranean shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to the projected pH and seawater temperature (ST) scenarios for the end of this century. The colonial coral Astroides calycularis and the solitary Leptopsammia pruvoti were grown in aquaria over a year under two fixed pH conditions, control (8.05 pHT units) and low (7.72 pHT units), and simulating two annual ST cycles, natural and high (+3 °C). The organic matter (OM), lipid and protein content of the tissue and the skeletal microdensity of A. calycularis were not affected by the stress conditions (low pH, high ST), but the species exhibited a mean 25 % decrease in calcification rate at high-ST conditions at the end of the warm period and a mean 10 % increase in skeletal porosity under the acidified treatment after a full year cycle. Conversely, an absence of effects on calcification and skeletal microdensity of L. pruvoti exposed to low-pH and high-ST treatments contrasted with a significant decrease in the OM, lipid and protein content of the tissue at high-ST conditions and a 13 % mean increase in the skeletal porosity under low-pH conditions following a full year of exposure. This species-specific response suggests that different internal self-regulation strategies for energy reallocation may allow certain shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to cope more successfully than others with global environmental changes.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and protein and chlorophyll a content per nubbin of Acropora muricata during observations of La Saline fringing reef, La Reunion Island, western Indian Ocean, 2011

The effect of decreasing aragonite saturation state (Omega Arag) of seawater (elevated pCO2) on calcification rates of Acropora muricata was studied using nubbins prepared from parent colonies located at two sites of La Saline reef (La Réunion Island, western Indian Ocean): a back-reef site (BR) affected by nutrient-enriched groundwater discharge (mainly nitrate), and a reef flat site (RF) with low terrigenous inputs. Protein and chlorophyll a content of the nubbins, as well as zooxanthellae abundance, were lower at RF than BR. Nubbins were incubated at ~27°C over 2 h under sunlight, in filtered seawater manipulated to get differing initial pCO2 (1,440-340 µatm), Omega Arag (1.4-4.0), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations (2,100-1,850 µmol/kg). Increasing DIC concentrations at constant total alkalinity (AT) resulted in a decrease in Omega Arag and an increase in pCO2. AT at the beginning of the incubations was kept at a natural level of 2,193 ± 6 µmol/kg (mean ± SD). Net photosynthesis (NP) and calcification were calculated from changes in pH and AT during the incubations. Calcification decrease in response to doubling pCO2 relative to preindustrial level was 22% for RF nubbins. When normalized to surface area of the nubbins, (1) NP and calcification were higher at BR than RF, (2) NP increased in high pCO2 treatments at BR compared to low pCO2 treatments, and (3) calcification was not related to Omega Arag at BR. When normalized to NP, calcification was linearly related to Omega Arag at both sites, and the slopes of the relationships were not significantly different. The increase in NP at BR in the high pCO2 treatments may have increased calcification and thus masked the negative effect of low Omega Arag on calcification. Removing the effect of NP variations at BR showed that calcification declined in a similar manner with decreased Omega Arag (increased pCO2) whatever the nutrient loading.

Scientific drilling projects in ancient lakes: Integrating geological and biological histories

Sedimentary sequences in ancient or long-lived lakes can reach several thousands of meters in thickness and often provide an unrivalled perspective of the lake's regional climatic, environmental, and biological history. Over the last few years, deep-drilling projects in ancient lakes became increasingly multi- and interdisciplinary, as, among others, seismological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, climatic, environmental, paleontological, and evolutionary information can be obtained from sediment cores. However, these multi- and interdisciplinary projects pose several challenges. The scientists involved typically approach problems from different scientific perspectives and backgrounds, and setting up the program requires clear communication and the alignment of interests. One of the most challenging tasks, besides the actual drilling operation, is to link diverse datasets with varying resolution, data quality, and age uncertainties to answer interdisciplinary questions synthetically and coherently. These problems are especially relevant when secondary data, i.e., datasets obtained independently of the drilling operation, are incorporated in analyses. Nonetheless, the inclusion of secondary information, such as isotopic data from fossils found in outcrops or genetic data from extant species, may help to achieve synthetic answers. Recent technological and methodological advances in paleolimnology are likely to increase the possibilities of integrating secondary information. Some of the new approaches have started to revolutionize scientific drilling in ancient lakes, but at the same time, they also add a new layer of complexity to the generation and analysis of sediment-core data. The enhanced opportunities presented by new scientific approaches to study the paleolimnological history of these lakes, therefore, come at the expense of higher logistic, communication, and analytical efforts. Here we review types of data that can be obtained in ancient lake drilling projects and the analytical approaches that can be applied to empirically and statistically link diverse datasets to create an integrative perspective on geological and biological data. In doing so, we highlight strengths and potential weaknesses of new methods and analyses, and provide recommendations for future interdisciplinary deep-drilling projects.