An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Condições de trabalho e terceiro setor: implicações contemporâneas para o serviço social

In the contemporaneity, due to the implementation of the neoliberal project in which one verifies the withdrawal of the State in regard to the development of social policies, it is observed a new way of responding to the multifaceted expressions of the social issue, which is the emergence and expansion of a supposed "third sector" in society. Thus, the productive restructuring process has led to the deterioration of labor relations, as well as a super exploration of human labor power, also triggering structural unemployment. By being delineated in classist interests, the emergence of the "third sector" brings contradictory aspects to the society, one of these being the very concept of "third sector", more ideological than real. By seeking to answer the expressions of the social issue, demands the intervention of social workers in the institutions that "composes it". This way, arises the interest in researching what are the current conditions and labor relations of the social workers who work in the institutions of the "third sector" in Mossoró-RN. Therefore, this study is constituted by a survey for the conclusion of a Master's degree in Social Service at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. Therefore, it was listed out as general objective to identify and analyze the conditions and labor relations of the social workers entered in the institutions of the "third sector" in Mossoró-RN. And by specific objectives: to map the institutions that are part of the "third sector" in the city of Mossoró, which have social workers on its professional staff, in order to profile the same; and, analyze the main challenges presented to the work of the social worker in these institutions. We used the bibliographic and documental research to enlighten the knowledge of the topic approached and the development of the field research, in which for the analysis of the data obtained, through field research, it was used the quantitative and qualitative approach. The search results confirmed that half of the institutions was identified as philanthropics, and most of them are funded by the federal government and that such organizations develop activities in several areas, particularly health and welfare. Concerning the conditions and labor relations, was highlighted the fact that half of the professionals insert themselves within the institutions by appointment; regarding the salary, 57.1% of employees receive between 3 and 4 minimum wages, which is considered relatively low. Was satisfactory the analysis related to the labor rights, because almost all offer a formal contract, which ensures, in great measure, the effectuation of such rights. Now with regard to the workload, 5 of 6 institutions implemented the Law Nº. 12.317/2010 ensuring 30 hours a week for social workers. However, it were cited many challenges relating the reality of the "third sector" to the conditions and labor relations, among them stands out: the delay of salary and non-salary adjustment; the realization of activities that do not relate to professionals, functions and duties; the development of many activities by a single professional. Two important data are the not incentive to a postgraduate and the charging of the fulfillment of the goals for the professional productivity. Here, it is worth to reflect that, although this study presents elements that provide to identify some aspects of labor relations and conditions of social workers in the "third sector" in Mossoró- RN, as well as some challenges that permeate this space of professional insertion, is meant that there is much to be unveiled, and other studies can later do so in an attempt to a better understanding of the complexity of processes that permeate the "third sector"

Metal transfer mapping for FCAW process by using near-infrared filming

In the Flux Cored Arc Welding (FCAW) process, the transfer of filler metal (metal transfer modes) to the base material to accomplish the weld bead determines the weld quality and therefore studies of such phenomena is demanded. Thus, in this work, the metal transfer through the FCAW process is investigated by filming the phenomena with the assist of near infrared visualization. During the literature survey, it was found that this technic has not been used so far for analyzing the FCAW process. It must be pointed out that the radiation emitted from the weld arc, fumes and particles (spattering) in this process represent a barrier for these studies based in the process visualization. The monitoring of metal transfer for FCAW process was carried out within the operational envelope of voltage and wire feed speed with the electrode E71T-1 (1.2 mm diameter) and Ar+25%CO2 as a shielding gas. A local developed near infrared filming with frame rate of 300 Hz was employed for metal transfer visualization in order to contribute to a better understanding of this process and evaluating characteristics of metal transfer, unlike previous studies, which used shadowgraph technique. It can clearly be seen how the droplet is created and transferred in this process and also identify the different modes of metal transfer by changing the parameters of voltage and wire feed speed in metal transfer maps. The final result of this study is the metal transfer mode maps, which establish suitable conditions and provide the basis for developing arc control strategies for the FCAW process.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Resonance Energy Transfer-Based Molecular Switch Designed Using a Systematic Design Process Based on Monte Carlo Methods and Markov Chains

A RET network consists of a network of photo-active molecules called chromophores that can participate in inter-molecular energy transfer called resonance energy transfer (RET). RET networks are used in a variety of applications including cryptographic devices, storage systems, light harvesting complexes, biological sensors, and molecular rulers. In this dissertation, we focus on creating a RET device called closed-diffusive exciton valve (C-DEV) in which the input to output transfer function is controlled by an external energy source, similar to a semiconductor transistor like the MOSFET. Due to their biocompatibility, molecular devices like the C-DEVs can be used to introduce computing power in biological, organic, and aqueous environments such as living cells. Furthermore, the underlying physics in RET devices are stochastic in nature, making them suitable for stochastic computing in which true random distribution generation is critical.

In order to determine a valid configuration of chromophores for the C-DEV, we developed a systematic process based on user-guided design space pruning techniques and built-in simulation tools. We show that our C-DEV is 15x better than C-DEVs designed using ad hoc methods that rely on limited data from prior experiments. We also show ways in which the C-DEV can be improved further and how different varieties of C-DEVs can be combined to form more complex logic circuits. Moreover, the systematic design process can be used to search for valid chromophore network configurations for a variety of RET applications.

We also describe a feasibility study for a technique used to control the orientation of chromophores attached to DNA. Being able to control the orientation can expand the design space for RET networks because it provides another parameter to tune their collective behavior. While results showed limited control over orientation, the analysis required the development of a mathematical model that can be used to determine the distribution of dipoles in a given sample of chromophore constructs. The model can be used to evaluate the feasibility of other potential orientation control techniques.

Sediment budget and geomorphic process units of the Swedish Kärkevagge, link to ArcInfo E00 files

Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing field measurements are employed in the budget calculations. In the Kärkevagge catchment, Northern Sweden, 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Kärkevagge is approximately 680 t/a whilst about 150 t a-1 are transported into the fluvial system.

Let's put in order the accounting records and annual accounts of the agrarian processing companies

The substantive legislation on which Agricultural Processing Companies is based has some notable gaps with regard to the pertinent accounting system. There are grey areas concerning compulsory accounting records and their legalization, together with the process for drawing up, checking, approving and depositing the annual accounts.Consequently, in this paper, we will look first at the corporate and accounting records for Agricultural Processing Companies, putting forward proposals in the wake of recent legislation on the legalization of generally applied corporate and accounting documents.A critical analysis will also be made of the entire process of drafting, auditing, approving and depositing the annual accounts and other documents that Agricultural Processing Companies must send each year to their respective regional registries. Legal and mercantile registries will be differentiated from administrative ones and, in this last sense, changes will be suggested with regard to the place and objective of the deposit of such documents.After thirty-four years old, the substantive legislation in economic and accounting matters of the SAT is out of step with the current law, so a review is necessary. Recent regional regulations have not been a real breakthrough in this regard. We assert the existence of a gap between the substantive rules of the SAT and general accounting rules on financial statements, which is unsustainable and it needs a quick legislative action to be canceled.

A Novel Methodology to Characterize the Constitutive Behaviour of Polyethylene terephthalate for the Stretch Blow Moulding process

The stretch blow moulding (SBM) process is the main method for the mass production of PET containers. And understanding the constitutive behaviour of PET during this process is critical for designing the optimum product and process. However due to its nonlinear viscoelastic behaviour, the behaviour of PET is highly sensitive to its thermomechanical history making the task of modelling its constitutive behaviour complex. This means that the constitutive model will be useful only if it is known to be valid under the actual conditions of interest to the SBM process. The aim of this work was to develop a new material characterization method providing new data for the deformation behaviour of PET relevant to the SBM process. In order to achieve this goal, a reliable and robust characterization method was developed based on an instrumented stretch rod and a digital image correlation system to determine the stress-strain relationship of material in deforming preforms during free stretch-blow tests. The effect of preform temperature and air mass flow rate on the deformation behaviour of PET was also investigated.

Extreme-Ultraviolet-Initated High-Order Harmonic Generation: Driving Inner-Valence Electrons Using Below-Threshold-Energy Extreme-Ultraviolet Light

We propose a novel scheme for resolving the contribution of inner- and outer-valence electrons in XUV-initiated high-harmonic generation in neon. By probing the atom with a low energy (below the 2s ionisation threshold) ultrashort XUV pulse, the 2p electron is steered away from the core, while the 2s electron is enabled to describe recollision trajectories. By selectively suppressing the 2p recollision trajectories we can resolve the contribution of the 2s electron to the high-harmonic spectrum. We apply the classical trajectory model to account for the contribution of the 2s electron, which allows for an intuitive understanding of the process.

Process Selection Using Variation and Cost Relations

Variations are inherent in all manufacturing processes and can significantly affect the quality of a final assembly, particularly in multistage assembly systems. Existing research in variation management has primarily focused on incorporating GD&T factors into variation propagation models in order to predict product quality and allocate tolerances. However, process induced variation, which has a key influence on process planning, has not been fully studied. Furthermore, the link between variation and cost has not been well established, in particular the effect that assembly process selection has on the final quality and cost of a product. To overcome these barriers, this paper proposes a novel method utilizing process capabilities to establish the relationship between variation and cost. The methodology is discussed using a real industrial case study. The benefits include determining the optimum configuration of an assembly system and facilitating rapid introduction of novel assembly techniques to achieve a competitive edge.

Banana and abaca fiber-reinforced plastic composites obtained by rotational molding process

Natural fibers can be used in rotational molding process to obtain parts with improved mechanical properties. Different approaches have been followed in order to produce formulations containing banana or abaca fiber at 5% weight, in two- and three-layer constructions. Chemically treated abaca fiber has also been studied, causing some problems in processability. Fibers used have been characterized by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), optical microscopy, and single-fiber mechanical tests. Rotomolded parts have been tested for tensile, flexural, and impact properties, demonstrating that important increases in elastic modulus are achieved with these fibers, although impact properties are reduced. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

An innovative electroforming process for oil heated rotational moulding tools

Rotational moulding is a method to produce hollow plastic articles. Heating is normally carried out by placing the mould into a hot air oven where the plastic material in the mould is heated. The most common cooling media are water and forced air. Due to the inefficient nature of conventional hot air ovens most of the energy supplied by the oven does not go to heat the plastic and as a consequence the procedure has very long cycle times. Direct oil heating is an effective alternative in order to achieve better energy efficiency and cycle times. This research work has combined this technology with new innovative design of mould, applying the advantages of electroforming and rapid prototyping. Complex cavity geometries are manufactured by electroforming from a rapid prototyping mandrel. The approach involves conformal heating and cooling channels , where the oil flows into a parallel channel to the electroformed cavity (nickel or copper). Because of this the mould enables high temperature uniformity with direct heating and cooling of the electroformed shell, Uniform heating and cooling is important not only for good quality parts but also for good uniform wall thickness distribution in the rotationally moulded part. The experimental work with the manufactured prototype mould has enabled analysis of the thermal uniformity in the cavity, under different temperatures. Copyright © 2008 by ASME.

Second-Order Risk Constraints

This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

Standardisation of the Selling Process in Franchising : A Take on Sales Funnel Management

This paper addresses the two opposing extremes of standardisation in franchising and the dynamics of sales in search of a juncture point in order to reduce franchisees’ uncertainties in sales and improve sales performance. A conceptual framework is developed based on both theory and practice in order to investigate the sales process of a specific franchise network. The research is conducted over a period of six weeks in form of a customised sales report considering the sales funnel concept and performance indicators along the sales process. The received quantitative data is analysed through descriptive statistics and logistic regressions in respect to what variations in the sales process can be discovered and what practices yield higher performance. The results indicate an advantage of a prioritisation guideline regarding the activities and choices to make as a salesperson over strict standardisation. Defining the sales funnel plus engaging in the process of monitoring sales in itself has proven to be a way of reducing uncertainty as the franchisor and franchisees alike inherently gain a greater understanding of the process. The extended knowledge gained from this research allowed for both practical as well as theoretical implications and expands the knowledge on standardisation of sales and the appropriateness of the sales funnel and its management for dealing with the dilemma between standardisation and flexibility of sales in franchising contexts.

Madeira wine vinification process: analysis and control

The present study was done in collaboration with J. Faria e Filhos company, a Madeira wine producer, and its main goal was to fully characterize three wines produced during 2014 harvest and identify possible improving points in the winemaking process. The winemaking process was followed during 4 weeks, being registered the amounts of grapes received, the fermentation temperatures, the time at which fermentation was stopped and evolution of must densities until the fortification time. The characterization of musts and wines was done in terms of density, total and volatile acidity, alcohol content, pH, total of polyphenol, organic acids composition, sugars concentration and the volatile profile. Also, it was developed and validated an analytical methodology to quantify the volatile fatty acids, namely using SPME-GC-MS. Briefly, the following key features were obtained for the latter methodology: linearity (R2=0.999) e high sensitivity (LOD =0.026-0.068 mg/L), suitable precision (repeatability and reproducibility lower than 8,5%) and good recoveries (103,11-119,46%). The results reveal that fermentation temperatures should be controlled in a more strictly manner, in order to ensure a better balance in proportion of some volatile compounds, namely the esters and higher alcohols and to minimize the concentration of some volatiles, namely hexanoic, octanoic and decanoic acids, that when above their odours threshold are not positive for the wine aroma. Also, regarding the moment to stop the fermentation, it was verified that it can be introduced changes which can also be benefit to guarantee the tipicity of Madeira wine bouquet.