Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models

In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least-squares operations of order O(T 2) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural-change models. Secondly, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. We present simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the estimators and tests in finite samples. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program available upon request for non-profit academic use.

Towards a communicative understanding of organizational change : Koumbit's change process

Comment comprendre les dynamiques qui sous-tendent les changements des organisations? Le changement organisationnel fait partie de la réalité quotidienne des organisations et, comme en témoigne une vaste littérature, le sujet a été abordé à partir de diverses perspectives conceptuelles. Toutefois, plusieurs questions fondamentales demeurent quant à la façon dont le changement organisationnel est accompli (Tsoukas & Chia, 2002; Chia, 1999). Je suggère que la clé pour répondre à ces questions se trouve dans l’étude de la communication. Cependant, le rôle de la communication dans la production du changement reste peu exploré dans les conceptualisations actuelles sur le sujet. Ainsi, l’objectif principal de cette thèse est de décrire la façon dont le changement émerge dans la communication, en d’autres termes, comment il est accompli à partir des interactions. Dans cette recherche, je propose que la compréhension du changement passe par une vision de la communication comme un processus constant dans lequel les réalités sont créées, négociées et transformées de manière interactive. Cette conception est fondée sur a plurified view of interactions (Cooren, Fox, Robichaud & Talih, 2005; Cooren 2010) qui prend en considération la contribution d’êtres appartenant à diverses ontologies (e.g., ordinateurs, règlements, principes, émotions, règles, c.) dans l’action. En mobilisant cette vision de la communication, j’ai étudié les changements qui ont eu lieu à Koumbit — une organisation à but non lucratif basée à Montréal qui œuvre dans le domaine des technologies de l’information. L’observation, les entrevues ainsi que la révision de documents officiels ont été les techniques choisies pour cueillir les données. Ma recherche m’a permis de déterminer que le changement organisationnel est un processus progressif qui se matérialise d’interaction en interaction. C’est en composant et en recomposant des ensembles d’associations que se crée une différence dans l’état des choses. Si bien les interactions sont accomplies dans le ici et le maintenant, leur caractère hybride leur permet de rendre compte de ce que l’organisation a été et de ce qu’elle sera. Cette étude suggère que, d’un point de vue communicationnel, les mécanismes à partir desquels le changement organisationnel est accompli n sont pas aussi différents de ceux qui produisent les processus organisants (organizing).

Facteurs environnementaux et symptômes des troubles oculaires et cutanés chez les enfants de moins de cinq ans : cas des zones de l’Observatoire de population de Ouagadougou

Les risques liés à l’environnement immédiat, notamment le manque d’accès à l’eau potable, à l’assainissement, à un logement décent et à un milieu de vie sain constituent un des facteurs à l’origine de la mauvaise santé des enfants de moins de cinq ans dans les pays en développement. Les objectifs principaux poursuivis dans cette recherche sont de mesurer l’influence de ces risques de l’environnement immédiat sur la prévalence des symptômes des troubles oculaires et celle des symptômes des troubles cutanés chez les enfants de moins de cinq ans à Ouagadougou et de rechercher les autres déterminants sous-jacents de la prévalence de ces symptômes dans cette ville. Nous utilisons les données de l’enquête réalisée en février 2010 sur l’état de santé et le comportement sanitaire associé aux maladies et symptômes récents et les données sur les événements démographiques et sur les conditions de vie des ménages collectées en mai 2009 durant le round 1 de l’enquête ménage. L’échantillon de l’étude est constitué de 950 enfants issus de 736 ménages sélectionnés aléatoirement dans cinq quartiers périphériques de la ville de Ouagadougou. Nous avons recouru à l’analyse descriptive fondée sur les tableaux croisés et les tests du chi-2, et à l’analyse de la régression logistique multivariée ayant permis d’étudier les risques relatifs de la survenue desdits symptômes. L’analyse descriptive montre que certaines variables de l’environnement immédiat, en l’occurrence le mode d’évacuation des ordures ménagères, le type de toilette utilisé le plus souvent par la plupart des membres du ménage et le type de quartier de résidence, sont associés à la prévalence des troubles oculaires. Mais une analyse approfondie à l’aide de la régression logistique multivariée n’a confirmé que l’effet du type de quartier de résidence. Concernant la prévalence des symptômes des troubles cutanés, en analyse bi-variée, les variables de l’environnement immédiat qui y sont associées sont la nature du sol intérieur et le mode d’évacuation des eaux usées. L’analyse multivariée semble confirmer les effets de ces variables. Nous avons relevé quelques limites des données utilisées, notamment la faible taille de l’échantillon, la non-confirmation par voie médicale des données sanitaires et le caractère transversal desdites données. Toutefois, les résultats trouvés pourront être utiles aux planificateurs et décideurs qui ont la charge de la gestion de l’espace urbain dans le but de mieux concevoir de nouvelles politiques urbaines mettant l’accent sur la restructuration des quartiers précaires afin de mieux combattre les maladies évitables. En conclusion, en tenant compte des limites relevées, il serait utile de procéder à d’autres investigations afin de tirer des conclusions moins sujettes à débat du point de vue méthodologique.

An Alternative Approach To Computer System Security Monitoring And Enhancement Through System Call Sequence Analysis

Modern computer systems are plagued with stability and security problems: applications lose data, web servers are hacked, and systems crash under heavy load. Many of these problems or anomalies arise from rare program behavior caused by attacks or errors. A substantial percentage of the web-based attacks are due to buffer overflows. Many methods have been devised to detect and prevent anomalous situations that arise from buffer overflows. The current state-of-art of anomaly detection systems is relatively primitive and mainly depend on static code checking to take care of buffer overflow attacks. For protection, Stack Guards and I-leap Guards are also used in wide varieties.This dissertation proposes an anomaly detection system, based on frequencies of system calls in the system call trace. System call traces represented as frequency sequences are profiled using sequence sets. A sequence set is identified by the starting sequence and frequencies of specific system calls. The deviations of the current input sequence from the corresponding normal profile in the frequency pattern of system calls is computed and expressed as an anomaly score. A simple Bayesian model is used for an accurate detection.Experimental results are reported which show that frequency of system calls represented using sequence sets, captures the normal behavior of programs under normal conditions of usage. This captured behavior allows the system to detect anomalies with a low rate of false positives. Data are presented which show that Bayesian Network on frequency variations responds effectively to induced buffer overflows. It can also help administrators to detect deviations in program flow introduced due to errors.

INFO2009 2012-13 Resource Group 6 Flashcards

An inspirational and educational flashcard resource for secondary school children. Can be used as flashcards or as a matching activity (depending on how cards are cut out).

Institutions & Their Data

A panel presentation at Repository Fringe 2015

Percepção da gestão nos hospitais filantrópicos privados vinculados ao Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) na cidade de Belém e região metropolitana, Pará

Os hospitais filantrópicos representam cerca de 1/3 do total de hospitais existentes no Brasil, são 1.917 instituições entre privados e não privados, lucrativos e sem fins lucrativos, constituídas aproximadamente por 132 mil leitos Se beneficiam de inúmeros privilégios fiscais que geram vantagens competitivas sobre o setor privado, dentre os quais, listam-se as isenções de impostos garantidas pela aquisição do certificado de filantropia, concedido pelo Ministério da Saúde. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é perceber a gestão desses hospitais e consiste em um estudo de caso com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa desenvolvido em cima de uma amostra composta por 2 (dois) hospitais filantrópicos privados vinculados ao SUS da cidade de Belém, Pará, Brasil e região metropolitana, escolhidos aleatoriamente numa população de 4 (quatro) hospitais. Constatou-se que os gestores ainda apresentam uma visão mecanicista, os colaboradores demonstram pouco conhecimento sobre a gestão, os usuários por sua vez têm o SUS como única opção e acham apenas que a qualidade nos serviços precisa melhorar, o planejamento estratégico é desconhecido e não é elaborado de modo participativo, inexistindo na sua forma completa. Por outro lado, ainda que contraditório, os hospitais apresentam um bom nível de qualificação profissional na gestão.

Provider diversity in the NHS: impact on quality and innovation

The overall objective of the research project has been to assess the impact of provider diversity on quality and innovation in the NHS. The specific research aims were to identify the differences in performance between non-profit Third Sector organisations, for-profit private enterprises, and incumbent public sector institutions within the NHS as providers of health care services, as well as the factors that affect the entry and growth of new private and Third Sector providers. The study used both qualitative and quantitative methods based on case studies of four Local Health Economies (LHEs). Qualitative methods included documentary analysis and interviews with key informants and managers of both commissioning and provider organisations. To provide a focus to the study, two tracer conditions were followed: orthopaedic surgery and home health care for frail older people. In the case of hospital inpatient care, data on patient characteristics were also collected from the HES database. The analysis of this data provided preliminary estimates of the effects of provider type on quality, controlling for client characteristics and case mix. In addition, a survey of patient experience in diverse provider organisations was analysed to compare the different dimensions of quality of provision of acute services between incumbent NHS organisations and new independent sector treatment centres. The research has shown that, in respect of inpatient hospital services, diverse providers supply health services of at least as good quality as traditional NHS providers, and that there is ample opportunity to expand their scale and scope as providers of services commissioned by the NHS. The research used patient experience survey data to investigate whether hospital ownership affects the quality of services reported by NHS patients in areas other than clinical quality. The raw survey data appear to show that private hospitals provide higher quality services than the public hospitals. However, further empirical analysis leads to a more nuanced understanding of the performance differences. Firstly, the analysis shows that each sector offers greater quality in certain specialties. Secondly, the analysis shows that differences in the quality of patients’ reported experience are mainly attributable to patient characteristics, the selection of patients into each type of hospital, and the characteristics of individual hospitals, rather than to hospital ownership as such. Controlling for such differences, NHS patients are on average likely to experience a similar quality of care in a public or privately-run hospital. Nevertheless, for specific groups of patients and for specific types of treatments, especially the more straightforward ones, the private sector provides an improved patient experience compared to the public sector. Elsewhere, the NHS continues to provide a high quality service and outperforms the private sector in a range of services and for a range of clients.

Cortical thickness changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere associated with non-paretic arm immobilization in modified CI therapy

Recent evidence suggests that immobilization of the upper limb for 2–3 weeks induces changes in cortical thickness as well as motor performance. In constraint induced (CI) therapy, one of the most effective interventions for hemiplegia, the non-paretic arm is constrained to enforce the use of the paretic arm in the home setting. With the present study we aimed to explore whether non-paretic arm immobilization in CI therapy induces structural changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere, and how these changes are related to treatment benefit. 31 patients with chronic hemiparesis participated in CI therapy with (N = 14) and without (N = 17) constraint. Motor ability scores were acquired before and after treatment. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data was obtained prior to treatment. Cortical thickness was measured with the Freesurfer software. In both groups cortical thickness in the contralesional primary somatosensory cortex increased and motor function improved with the intervention. However the cortical thickness change was not associated with the magnitude of motor function improvement. Moreover, the treatment effect and the cortical thickness change were not significantly different between the constraint and the non-constraint groups. There was no correlation between fractional anisotropy changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere and treatment outcome. CI therapy induced cortical thickness changes in contralesional sensorimotor regions, but this effect does not appear to be driven by the immobilization of the non-paretic arm, as indicated by the absence of differences between the constraint and the non-constraint groups. Our data does not suggest that the arm immobilization used in CI therapy is associated with noticeable cortical thinning.

Team leadership across contexts: a qualitative study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare leadership functions from different team contexts considering context characteristics that contribute to team effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative study was conducted. Seven leaders of multidisciplinary child protection teams (MDTs) and nine managers of an information technology (IT) company took part in semi-structured interviews. The data were analyzed using content analysis with ATLAS.ti. Findings – Results showed that the two types of teams used different performance criteria, with teams from non-profit contexts lacking defined performance criteria. The results also showed that transition leadership functions are more frequently mentioned by IT than by MDT leaders. Moreover, interpersonal leadership functions emerged as independent functions that may occur in both the transition and action phases. Research limitations/implications – Context is paramount for performance criteria definition and for the relevance of certain team leadership functions over others. It also presents some suggestions for improvement to the model of Morgeson et al. (2010a). Practical implications – The results support the idea that there are differences in the leadership functions that are most valued by leaders, depending on the specific team’s context. Results also showed that some non-profit and less task-structured teams lack the specific performance criteria that could help them make more successful interventions. Originality/value – This paper reviews context literature, it shows that the emphasis on team leadership functions can vary across contexts and to the knowledge it is the first that compares the model of Morgeson et al. (2010a) in different contexts.

Exploring the role the brand plays in the choice of charity by UK volunteers

Charities need to understand why volunteers choose one brand rather than another in order to attract more volunteers to their organisation. There has been considerable academic interest in understanding why people volunteer generally. However, this research explores the more specific question of why a volunteer chooses one charity brand rather than another. It builds on previous conceptualisations of volunteering as a consumption decision. Seen through the lens of the individual volunteer, it considers the under-researched area of the decision-making process. The research adopts an interpretivist epistemology and subjectivist ontology. Qualitative data was collected through depth interviews and analysed using both Means-End Chain (MEC) and Framework Analysis methodology. The primary contribution of the research is to theory: understanding the role of brand in the volunteer decision-making process. It identifies two roles for brand. The first is as a specific reason for choice, an ‘attribute’ of the decision. Through MEC, volunteering for a well-known brand connects directly through to a sense of self, both self-respect but also social recognition by others. All four components of the symbolic consumption construct are found in the data: volunteers choose a well-known brand to say something about themselves. The brand brings credibility and reassurance, it reduces the risk and enables the volunteer to meet their need to make a difference and achieve a sense of accomplishment. The second closely related role for brand is within the process of making the volunteering decision. Volunteers built up knowledge about the charity brands from a variety of brand touchpoints, over time. At the point of decision-making that brand knowledge and engagement becomes relevant, enabling some to make an automatic choice despite the significant level of commitment being made. The research identifies four types of decision-making behaviour. The research also makes secondary contributions to MEC methodology and to the non-profit context. It concludes within practical implications for management practice and a rich agenda for future research.

Machine vision for the automatic classification of images acquired from Non-destructive tests

This project is based on Artificial Intelligence (A.I) and Digital Image processing (I.P) for automatic condition monitoring of sleepers in the railway track. Rail inspection is a very important task in railway maintenance for traffic safety issues and in preventing dangerous situations. Monitoring railway track infrastructure is an important aspect in which the periodical inspection of rail rolling plane is required.Up to the present days the inspection of the railroad is operated manually by trained personnel. A human operator walks along the railway track searching for sleeper anomalies. This monitoring way is not more acceptable for its slowness and subjectivity. Hence, it is desired to automate such intuitive human skills for the development of more robust and reliable testing methods. Images of wooden sleepers have been used as data for my project. The aim of this project is to present a vision based technique for inspecting railway sleepers (wooden planks under the railway track) by automatic interpretation of Non Destructive Test (NDT) data using A.I. techniques in determining the results of inspection.

Personalized Communications : A Cross Media tool for the future

Personalized communication is when the marketing message is adapted to each individual by using information from a databaseand utilizing it in the various, different media channels available today. That gives the marketer the possibility to create a campaign that cuts through today’s clutter of marketing messages and gets the recipients attention. PODi is a non-profit organization that was started with the aim of contributing knowledge in the field of digital printingtechnologies. They have created a database of case studies showing companies that have successfully implemented personalizedcommunication in their marketing campaigns. The purpose of the project was therefore to analyze PODi case studies with the main objective of finding out if/how successfully the PODi-cases have been and what made them so successful. To collect the data found in the PODi cases the authors did a content analysis with a sample size of 140 PODi cases from the year 2008 to 2010. The study was carried out by analyzing the cases' measurable ways of success: response rate, conversion rate, visited PURL (personalized URL:s) and ROI (Return On Investment). In order to find out if there were any relationships to be found between the measurable result and what type of industry, campaign objective and media vehicle that was used in the campaign, the authors put up different research uestions to explore that. After clustering and merging the collected data the results were found to be quite spread but shows that the averages of response rates, visited PURL and conversion rates were consistently very high. In the study the authors also collected and summarized what the companies themselves claim to be the reasons for success with their marketing campaigns. The resultshows that the creation of a personalized campaign is complex and dependent on many different variables. It is for instance ofgreat importance to have a well thought-out plan with the campaign and to have good data and insights about the customer in order to perform creative personalization. It is also important to make it easy for the recipient to reply, to use several media vehicles for multiple touch points and to have an attractive and clever design.

Estrutura e desafios de financiamento do programa Abrigos Solidários: Liga Solidária

A prestação do serviço de acolhimento institucional para crianças e adolescentes ainda é um grande desafio para as organizações que realizam este trabalho, não só pelas atuais mudanças do perfil dos abrigados, que passa a exigir novas respostas institucionais, com pela fragilidade da estrutura de financiamento público. Desse modo, o presente trabalho tem como propósito identificar as principais fragilidades da estrutura de financiamento público desse serviço, a partir do estudo de caso do Programa Abrigos Solidárias da Liga Solidária, organização social sem fins lucrativos que mantém três abrigos via convênio firmado com a Secretaria Municipal de Assistência e Desenvolvimento Social de São Paulo (SMADS). Para tanto, foi realizada pesquisa qualitativa baseada em entrevistas semi estruturadas junto a gestores e técnicos da Liga Solidária, bem como uma revisão bibliográfica sobre os principais marcos da Política Nacional de Assistência Social, referências sobre a Reforma Gerencial do Estado e o funcionamento básico do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Com base nos dados encontrados na pesquisa, foi possível realizar um diagnóstico da atual estrutura de financiamento público e complementar que subsidiou a elaboração de uma proposta integrada de aperfeiçoamento da estrutura de financiamento desse serviço respaldado por uma análise comparativa com o SUS e resgatando as propostas de contratualização previstas na Reforma Gerencial do Estado de 1995.

Factors influencing consumer decision in crowdfunding

Crowdfunding é um método recente e emergente de captar dinheiro para desenvolvimento de projetos (tanto orientados a lucro ou não) sem a intermediação tradicional de instituições financeiras, liberando empreendedores de custos, regulações e burocracia associada a essa prática. Além disso, também é um método de pré-testar novos produtos com um público selecionado e entusiasmado. O objetivo dessa dissertação é entender que fatores estão influenciando a decisão do consumidor de investir em projetos. A literatura contribui com: (1) fatores intrínsecos, como desejo de patronagem; (2) fatores extrínsecos, como a apresentação do projeto; e (3) pressão social. Há ainda fatores associados com o nível atual de captação e número de investidores, assim como tipo de projeto envolvido, sendo ele de caridade ou não. Além disso, atitudes também possuem um papel em afetar a decisão de compra. Para responder a pergunta de pesquisa, uma metodologia de duas fases foi usada: uma entrevista de profundidade para capturar intenção de investir e motivação, de forma a construir um processo de decisão que englobasse todas as possibilidades descritas pela literatura. Após essa pesquisa qualitativa, uma pesquisa quantitativa foi feita para validar as informações coletadas pela fase anterior e coletar dados adicionais para gerar uma associação entre intenção de investir e comportamento. Dentre as informações geradas pela fase qualitativa, temos o fato que a maioria dos investidores tiveram como principal motivação a compra do produto sendo oferecido como se eles estivessem participando de uma pré-venda. Entretanto, essa não foi a principal razão para o investidor de caridade. Além disso, os respondentes que pré-compraram os produtos o fizeram para única razão que esses produtos satisfizeram desejos que tinham. Esses desejos variavam, sendo desde saudade de jogos antigos como resolver um problema de organização da carteira. Outra característica da pré-compra foi que eles não investiam valores simbólicos, pela razão que se o fizessem não receberiam o produto em troca. Recompensas tiveram um grande papel em atrair os respondentes para investimento em valores maiores que consideravam anteriormente. Também é verdade para o investidor em caridade, que também doou mais. A fase quantitativa confirmou as informações acima e gerou informação extra sobre as categorias de produto. Projetos de caridade e arte concentraram a maioria dos respondentes que disseram que a principal razão para investir foi basicamente ajudar a desenvolver o projeto sem demandar um produto em retorno. Entretanto, outros projetos como Música também apresentaram altos números de comportamento caridoso, possivelmente por causa do envolvimento emocional com o artista. Outras categorias apresentaram um mix de razões para investir ou enviesado a comprar o produto apenas, o que pode ser explicado pelo efeito de recompensas e pelo fato que essas categorias estão simplesmente pré-vendendo produtos. Essa pesquisa também confirmou as principais fontes usadas para conhecer mais sobre os projetos: recomendação pessoal e blogs e fóruns. Outro resultado dessa fase foi o desenvolvimento de fatores a partir de frases atitudinais que puderam explicar intenção de investir. Seis fatores foram criados: Entusiasmo (por crowdfunding), Exclusividade (compra de recompensas), Caridade (doações pequenas para ajudar o desenvolvimento do projeto), Cautela (similar à difusão de responsabilidade, isto é, espera por mais investidores para dar o primeiro passo), Intimidade (projeto foi recomendado ou há ligação emocional com o criador) e Compartilhamento (compartilhar para ajudar a trazer mais investidores para o projeto). Categorias com alto envolvimento emocional apresentaram associação com Intimidade, como música, filme e tecnologia. Dado o fato que a amostra não continha muitos entusiastas por crowdfunding, esse fator não apresentou qualquer associação com as categorias. Categorias que não entregam produtos em troca, como comida e fotografia, apresentaram altos níveis de associação com o fator caridade. Compartilhamento é altamente associado com tecnologia, dado o fato que essa categoria concentra os respondentes que são mais orientados à inovação e entusiastas sobre o produto, então precisam compartilhar e gerar boca-a-boca para ajudar a atingir a meta de investimento.