Hemorheological and Glycemic Parameters and HDL Cholesterol for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events

Abstract Background: Hemorheological and glycemic parameters and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are used as biomarkers of atherosclerosis and thrombosis. Objective: To investigate the association and clinical relevance of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen, fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and HDL cholesterol in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in an outpatient population. Methods: 708 stable patients who visited the outpatient department were enrolled and followed for a mean period of 28.5 months. Patients were divided into two groups, patients without MACE and patients with MACE, which included cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, newly diagnosed CHD, and cerebral vascular accident. We compared hemorheological and glycemic parameters and lipid profiles between the groups. Results: Patients with MACE had significantly higher ESR, fibrinogen, fasting glucose, and HbA1c, while lower HDL cholesterol compared with patients without MACE. High ESR and fibrinogen and low HDL cholesterol significantly increased the risk of MACE in multivariate regression analysis. In patients with MACE, high fibrinogen and HbA1c levels increased the risk of multivessel CHD. Furthermore, ESR and fibrinogen were significantly positively correlated with HbA1c and negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol, however not correlated with fasting glucose. Conclusion: Hemorheological abnormalities, poor glycemic control, and low HDL cholesterol are correlated with each other and could serve as simple and useful surrogate markers and predictors for MACE and CHD in outpatients.

Pulmonary Embolism Mortality in Brazil from 1989 to 2010: Gender and Regional Disparities

Abstract Background: A significant variation in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends have been documented around the world. We investigated the trends in mortality rate from PE in Brazil over a period of 21 years and its regional and gender differences. Methods: Using a nationwide database of death certificate information we searched for all cases with PE as the underlying cause of death between 1989 and 2010. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We calculated age-, gender- and region-specific mortality rates for each year, using the 2000 Brazilian population for direct standardization. Results: Over 21 years the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) fell 31% from 3.04/100,000 to 2.09/100,000. In every year between 1989 and 2010, the ASMR was higher in women than in men, but both showed a significant declining trend, from 3.10/100,000 to 2.36/100,000 and from 2.94/100,000 to 1.80/100,000, respectively. Although all country regions showed a decline in their ASMR, the largest fall in death rates was concentrated in the highest income regions of the South and Southeast Brazil. The North and Northeast regions, the lowest income areas, showed a less marked fall in death rates and no distinct change in the PE mortality rate in women. Conclusions: Our study showed a reduction in the PE mortality rate over two decades in Brazil. However, significant variation in this trend was observed amongst the five country regions and between genders, pointing to possible disparities in health care access and quality in these groups.

Very Long-Term Prognostic Role of Admission BNP in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: BNP has been extensively evaluated to determine short- and intermediate-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome, but its role in long-term mortality is not known. Objective: To determine the very long-term prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for all-cause mortality in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Methods: A cohort of 224 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, prospectively seen in the Emergency Department, had BNP measured on arrival to establish prognosis, and underwent a median 9.34-year follow-up for all-cause mortality. Results: Unstable angina was diagnosed in 52.2%, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, in 47.8%. Median admission BNP was 81.9 pg/mL (IQ range = 22.2; 225) and mortality rate was correlated with increasing BNP quartiles: 14.3; 16.1; 48.2; and 73.2% (p < 0.0001). ROC curve disclosed 100 pg/mL as the best BNP cut-off value for mortality prediction (area under the curve = 0.789, 95% CI= 0.723-0.854), being a strong predictor of late mortality: BNP < 100 = 17.3% vs. BNP ≥ 100 = 65.0%, RR = 3.76 (95% CI = 2.49-5.63, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, age >72 years (OR = 3.79, 95% CI = 1.62-8.86, p = 0.002), BNP ≥ 100 pg/mL (OR = 6.24, 95% CI = 2.95-13.23, p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99, p = 0.049) were independent late-mortality predictors. Conclusions: BNP measured at hospital admission in patients with NSTEACS is a strong, independent predictor of very long-term all-cause mortality. This study allows raising the hypothesis that BNP should be measured in all patients with NSTEACS at the index event for long-term risk stratification.

Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Pregnant Women With Heart Disease

Abstract Background: Heart disease in pregnancy is the leading cause of non- obstetric maternal death. Few Brazilian studies have assessed the impact of heart disease during pregnancy. Objective: To determine the risk factors associated with cardiovascular and neonatal complications. Methods: We evaluated 132 pregnant women with heart disease at a High-Risk Pregnancy outpatient clinic, from January 2005 to July 2010. Variables that could influence the maternal-fetal outcome were selected: age, parity, smoking, etiology and severity of the disease, previous cardiac complications, cyanosis, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class > II, left ventricular dysfunction/obstruction, arrhythmia, drug treatment change, time of prenatal care beginning and number of prenatal visits. The maternal-fetal risk index, Cardiac Disease in Pregnancy (CARPREG), was retrospectively calculated at the beginning of prenatal care, and patients were stratified in its three risk categories. Results: Rheumatic heart disease was the most prevalent (62.12%). The most frequent complications were heart failure (11.36%) and arrhythmias (6.82%). Factors associated with cardiovascular complications on multivariate analysis were: drug treatment change (p = 0.009), previous cardiac complications (p = 0.013) and NYHA class III on the first prenatal visit (p = 0.041). The cardiovascular complication rates were 15.22% in CARPREG 0, 16.42% in CARPREG 1, and 42.11% in CARPREG > 1, differing from those estimated by the original index: 5%, 27% and 75%, respectively. This sample had 26.36% of prematurity. Conclusion: The cardiovascular complication risk factors in this population were drug treatment change, previous cardiac complications and NYHA class III at the beginning of prenatal care. The CARPREG index used in this sample composed mainly of patients with rheumatic heart disease overestimated the number of events in pregnant women classified as CARPREG 1 and > 1, and underestimated it in low-risk patients (CARPREG 0).

Mortality from Circulatory System Diseases and Malformations in Children in the State of Rio de Janeiro

Abstract Background: The epidemiological profile of mortality in a population is important for the institution of measures to improve health care and reduce mortality Objective: To estimate mortality rates and the proportional mortality from cardiovascular diseases and malformations of the circulatory system in children and adolescents. Methods: This is a descriptive study of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, malformations of the circulatory system, from all causes, ill-defined causes and external causes in children and adolescents in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1996 to 2012. Populations were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE) and deaths obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS)/Ministry of Health. Results: There were 115,728 deaths from all causes, 69,757 in males. The annual mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 2.7/100,000 in men and 2.6/100,000 in women. The annual mortality from malformations of the circulatory system was 7.5/100,000 in men and 6.6/100,000 in women. Among the specific causes of circulatory diseases, cardiomyopathies had the highest rates of annual proportional mortality, and from malformations of the circulatory system, it occurred due to unspecified malformations of the circulatory system, at all ages and in both genders. Conclusion: Mortality from malformations of the circulatory system was most striking in the first years of life, while cardiovascular diseases were more relevant in adolescents. Low access to prenatal diagnosis or at birth probably prevented the proper treatment of malformations of the circulatory system.

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation and Morbidity and Mortality-Related Factors: a 5-Year Experience in Brazil

Abstract Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation has become an option for high-surgical-risk patients with aortic valve disease. Objective: To evaluate the in-hospital and one-year follow-up outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Methods: Prospective cohort study of transcatheter aortic valve implantation cases from July 2009 to February 2015. Analysis of clinical and procedural variables, correlating them with in-hospital and one-year mortality. Results: A total of 136 patients with a mean age of 83 years (80-87) underwent heart valve implantation; of these, 49% were women, 131 (96.3%) had aortic stenosis, one (0.7%) had aortic regurgitation and four (2.9%) had prosthetic valve dysfunction. NYHA functional class was III or IV in 129 cases (94.8%). The baseline orifice area was 0.67 ± 0.17 cm2 and the mean left ventricular-aortic pressure gradient was 47.3±18.2 mmHg, with an STS score of 9.3% (4.8%-22.3%). The prostheses implanted were self-expanding in 97% of cases. Perioperative mortality was 1.5%; 30-day mortality, 5.9%; in-hospital mortality, 8.1%; and one-year mortality, 15.5%. Blood transfusion (relative risk of 54; p = 0.0003) and pulmonary arterial hypertension (relative risk of 5.3; p = 0.036) were predictive of in-hospital mortality. Peak C-reactive protein (relative risk of 1.8; p = 0.013) and blood transfusion (relative risk of 8.3; p = 0.0009) were predictive of 1-year mortality. At 30 days, 97% of patients were in NYHA functional class I/II; at one year, this figure reached 96%. Conclusion: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation was performed with a high success rate and low mortality. Blood transfusion was associated with higher in-hospital and one-year mortality. Peak C-reactive protein was associated with one-year mortality.

Trends in Mortality Rate from Cardiovascular Disease in Brazil, 1980-2012

Abstract Background: Studies have questioned the downward trend in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in recent years. Objective: to analyze recent trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in the Brazilian population. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by the direct method, using as reference the world population of 2000. We analyzed trends in mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke in women and men in the periods of 1980-2006 and 2007-2012. Results: there was a decrease in CVD mortality and stroke in women and men for both periods (p < 0.001). Annual mortality variations for periods 1980-2006 and 2007-2012 were, respectively: CVD (total): -1.5% and -0.8%; CVD men: -1.4% and -0.6%; CVD women: -1.7% and -1.0%; DIC (men): -1.1% and 0.1%; stroke (men): -1.7% and -1.4%; DIC (women): -1.5% and 0.4%; stroke (women): -2.0% and -1.9%. From 1980 to 2006, there was a decrease in IHD mortality in men and women (p < 0.001), but from 2007 to 2012, changes in IHD mortality were not significant in men [y = 151 + 0.04 (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.779)] and women [y = 88-0.54 (R2 = 0.24; p = 0.320). Conclusion: Trend in mortality from IHD stopped falling in Brazil from 2007 to 2012.

Numerical prediction of nanoparticle formation in flames

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2012

Breakage probability of repeated stressing of granules by configuring the stressing points

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2014

Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

A Multi-state model for the analysis of functional decline and mortality of frail elderly patients

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi, que correspon a un projecte de recerca sobre la pèrdua funcional i la mortalitat de persones grans fràgils, és construir un procés de supervivència predictiu que tingui en compte l’evolució funcional i nutricional dels pacients al llarg del temps. En aquest estudi ens enfrontem a l’anàlisi de dades de supervivència i mesures repetides però els mètodes estadístics habituals per al tractament conjunt d’aquest tipus de dades no són apropiats en aquest cas. Com a alternativa utilitzem els models de supervivència multi-estats per avaluar l’associació entre mortalitat i recuperació, o no, dels nivells funcionals i nutricionals considerats normals. Després d’estimar el model i d’identificar els factors pronòstics de mortalitat és possible obtenir un procés predictiu que permet fer prediccions de la supervivència dels pacients en funció de la seva història concreta fins a un determinat moment. Això permet realitzar un pronòstic més precís de cada grup de pacients, la qual cosa pot ser molt útil per als professionals sanitaris a l’hora de prendre decisions clíniques.

Contractive probability metrics and asymptotic behavior of dissipative kinetic equations

The present notes are intended to present a detailed review of the existing results in dissipative kinetic theory which make use of the contraction properties of two main families of probability metrics: optimal mass transport and Fourier-based metrics. The first part of the notes is devoted to a self-consistent summary and presentation of the properties of both probability metrics, including new aspects on the relationships between them and other metrics of wide use in probability theory. These results are of independent interest with potential use in other contexts in Partial Differential Equations and Probability Theory. The second part of the notes makes a different presentation of the asymptotic behavior of Inelastic Maxwell Models than the one presented in the literature and it shows a new example of application: particle's bath heating. We show how starting from the contraction properties in probability metrics, one can deduce the existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability in classical spaces. A global strategy with this aim is set up and applied in two dissipative models.

Diagnosing pulmonary embolism in outpatients with clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, venous ultrasound, and helical computed tomography: a multicenter management study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism that combined clinical assessment, plasma D-dimer measurement, lower limb venous ultrasonography, and helical computed tomography (CT). METHODS: A cohort of 965 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency departments of three general and teaching hospitals with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism underwent sequential noninvasive testing. Clinical probability was assessed by a prediction rule combined with implicit judgment. All patients were followed for 3 months. RESULTS: A normal D-dimer level (&lt;500 microg/L by a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) ruled out venous thromboembolism in 280 patients (29%), and finding a deep vein thrombosis by ultrasonography established the diagnosis in 92 patients (9.5%). Helical CT was required in only 593 patients (61%) and showed pulmonary embolism in 124 patients (12.8%). Pulmonary embolism was considered ruled out in the 450 patients (46.6%) with a negative ultrasound and CT scan and a low-to-intermediate clinical probability. The 8 patients with a negative ultrasound and CT scan despite a high clinical probability proceeded to pulmonary angiography (positive: 2; negative: 6). Helical CT was inconclusive in 11 patients (pulmonary embolism: 4; no pulmonary embolism: 7). The overall prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 23%. Patients classified as not having pulmonary embolism were not anticoagulated during follow-up and had a 3-month thromboembolic risk of 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.1%). CONCLUSION: A noninvasive diagnostic strategy combining clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, ultrasonography, and helical CT yielded a diagnosis in 99% of outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, and appeared to be safe, provided that CT was combined with ultrasonography to rule out the disease.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Body-mass index and mortality.

Comment on: Prospective Studies Collaboration, Whitlock G, Lewington S et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083-96. PMID: 19299006.