Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

A bizalmat befolyásoló tényezők vizsgálata az üzleti kapcsolatokban (Affects of Transaction cost and Social Exchange Constructs on trust In supply chain relationship)

Az üzleti célú kapcsolatok vizsgálatakor legtöbbször felmerül a bizalom fogalma is, amellyel először a szociálpszichológia és a szociológia foglalkozott. A szerző cikkében azzal foglalkozik, hogy milyen tényezők befolyásolják a bizalmat az üzleti kapcsolatokban. Ezért magyarországi szervezeteket (elsősorban üzleti vállalkozásokat) kérdezett meg kvantitatív módszer alkalmazásával. Ez az empirikus kutatás igyekszik a bizalom lehető legtöbb tényezőit összegyűjteni, ahol a kérdőívben a válaszolók egyik létező – vevői vagy beszállítói – kapcsolatukra gondolva válaszoltak a bizalmon túl a partner hírnevére, az észlelt elégedettségre és konfliktusra, az információcserére, a lecserélhetőségre, valamint a kapcsolatspecifikus beruházásokra vonatkozóan. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy egyik változó sem jelent kizárólagos befolyásoló erőt, hanem közösen alakítják ki a bizalom adott szintjét. _______ This article is based on the assumption that trust promotes commitment between partners in the supply chain and improves the chances of return on supply chain success. In contrast, a lack of trust between them often increases transaction costs and results in inefficiency. The results of this research, based on multi-country surveys with 729 returns from France, Hungary, Korea, Tunisia and the United States on supply chain professionals, reveals a strong affect of transaction cost constructs (TCC) (asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty) and social exchange constructs (SEC) (replaceability, perceived satisfaction, partner reputation, and perceived conflict) on trust-commitment variables in partnership based supply chain relationships. This paper employed a structural equation model to extract information from the survey data. Among the findings, the research indicates that a firm’s trustcommitment in dealing with their supply chain partnership is highly associated with not only transaction cost, but more so with social exchange variables. This study may open a new research avenue in that there is another construct, SEC, beside TSC that influences the degree of trust and commitment.

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Stressors, mediators, and health care outcomes of home enteral nutrition in family caregivers and their older adult care recipients

Family caregivers manage home enteral nutrition (HEN) for over 77% of an estimated 1 of every 400 Medicare recipients. Increasing usage of HEN in older adults combined with reliance on family caregivers raises concerns for the quality, outcomes, and costs of care. These concerns are relevant in light of Medicare limitations on nursing assistance and non-reimbursement for nutrition services, despite annual costs of over $600 million. This study applied stress process theories to assess stressor, mediator, and outcome variables salient to HEN and caregiving. In-home structured interviews occurred with a multi-ethnic sample of 30 caregiving dyads at 1–3 months after discharge on HEN. Care recipients were aged ≥60 (M = 68.4 years) and did not have dementia. Caregivers were aged ≥21, unpaid, and lived within 45 minutes of care recipients. Caregivers performed an average of 19.7 tasks daily for 61.9 hours weekly. Training needs were identified for 33 functional, care management, technical, and nutritional tasks. Preparedness scores were low (M = 1.73/4.0), and positively correlated with competence, self-rated quality of care and positive feelings, and negatively with overload, role captivity, and negative feelings (Ps < .05). Caregivers had multiple changes in lifestyle and dietary behaviors. Lifestyle changes positively correlated with overload, and negatively with preparedness and positive feelings. Dietary changes positively correlated with number of tasks, overload, role captivity and negative feelings, and negatively with preparedness (Ps < .01). Fifty-seven percent of caregivers aged >50 were at nutrition risk. Care recipients fared worse. Average weight change was −4.35 pounds (P < .001). Physical complications interrupted daily enteral infusions. Water intake was half of fluid need and associated with signs of dehydration (P < .001). Physical and social function was poor, with older subjects more impaired ( P < .04). Those with better prepared or less overloaded caregivers had higher functionality and QOL (P < .002). Complications, type of feeding tube, and caregiver preparedness correlated with frequency of health care utilization (Ps < .05). Efficacy of HEN in older adults requires specialized caregiver training, attention to caregivers' needs, and frequent monitoring from a highly skilled multidisciplinary team including dietitians. ^

Autonomic and embedded wireless sensor protocols for critical infrastructures

The tragic events of September 11th ushered a new era of unprecedented challenges. Our nation has to be protected from the alarming threats of adversaries. These threats exploit the nation's critical infrastructures affecting all sectors of the economy. There is the need for pervasive monitoring and decentralized control of the nation's critical infrastructures. The communications needs of monitoring and control of critical infrastructures was traditionally catered for by wired communication systems. These technologies ensured high reliability and bandwidth but are however very expensive, inflexible and do not support mobility and pervasive monitoring. The communication protocols are Ethernet-based that used contention access protocols which results in high unsuccessful transmission and delay. An emerging class of wireless networks, named embedded wireless sensor and actuator networks has potential benefits for real-time monitoring and control of critical infrastructures. The use of embedded wireless networks for monitoring and control of critical infrastructures requires secure, reliable and timely exchange of information among controllers, distributed sensors and actuators. The exchange of information is over shared wireless media. However, wireless media is highly unpredictable due to path loss, shadow fading and ambient noise. Monitoring and control applications have stringent requirements on reliability, delay and security. The primary issue addressed in this dissertation is the impact of wireless media in harsh industrial environment on the reliable and timely delivery of critical data. In the first part of the dissertation, a combined networking and information theoretic approach was adopted to determine the transmit power required to maintain a minimum wireless channel capacity for reliable data transmission. The second part described a channel-aware scheduling scheme that ensured efficient utilization of the wireless link and guaranteed delay. Various analytical evaluations and simulations are used to evaluate and validate the feasibility of the methodologies and demonstrate that the protocols achieved reliable and real-time data delivery in wireless industrial networks.

Leadership Styles, Behaviors, and Outcomes of Athletic Training Education Program Directors

Context: With the increase in athletic training education programs, the demand for a highly qualified faculty member to serve as program director (PD) and fill the multiple roles and responsibilities of the position has increased. A successful PD must possess leadership skills crucial for the evolving academic environment. Research suggests that educational leaders must provide both transactional and transformational leadership if athletic trainers are to secure a legitimate place as healthcare providers. Objective: To describe the leadership styles and behaviors of athletic training education PDs and to describe the associations between leadership style, behavior, outcome, and experience. Design: We will utilize a survey design to identify the leadership styles, behaviors, outcomes, and experiences of athletic training education PDs. Setting: On-line questionnaire. Participants: The population of this study will be limited to the academic PDs of the 360 accredited entry-level athletic training education programs in the United States. Intervention: The investigation will utilize the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ). The MLQ is a validated tool composed of 45 items that identify and measure key leadership and effectiveness behaviors shown to be strongly linked with both individual and organizational success. In addition to the leader, it is recommended that all persons working above, below, and directly at the same organizational level as the leader rate the leader. Raters evaluate how frequently, or to what degree, they have observed the leader engage in 32 specific behaviors. Main Outcome Measure(s): Statistical analysis will be utilized to describe the associations between leadership styles, behaviors, outcomes, and experiences.

The economic well -being of low -income immigrants in the U.S.: An examination of the impact of the 1996 welfare reform on immigrants

The 1996 welfare reform, for the first time in U.S. history, set a five-year residence requirement for immigrants to be eligible for federal welfare benefits. This dissertation assessed the impact of the 1996 welfare reform, specifically the immigrant provisions, on the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. This dissertation also explored the roles that migration selection theory and social capital theory play in the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. ^ This dissertation was based on an analysis of the March 1995, March 2002, and March 2006 Annual Demographic Supplement Files of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Both logistic regression and multiple regression were used to analyze economic well-being, comparing low-income immigrants with low-income citizens. Economic well-being was measured in the current survey year and the year before on the following variables: employment status, full-time status (35 or more hours per week), the number of weeks worked, and the total annual wage or salary.^ The major findings reported in this dissertation were that low-income immigrants had advantages over low-income citizens in the labor market. This may be due to immigrants' stronger motivation to obtain success, consistent with migration selection theory. Also, this research suggested that immigrant provisions had not ameliorated employment outcomes of low-income immigrants as policymakers may have expected.^ The study also confirmed the role of social capital in advancing the economic well-being of qualified immigrants. Ultimately, this dissertation contributed to our understanding of low-income immigrants in the U.S. The study questioned the claim that immigrants are attracted to the U.S. by welfare benefits. This dissertation suggested that immigrants come to the U.S., to a large extent, to pursue the goal of upward mobility. Consequently, immigrants may employ greater initiative and work harder than native-born Americans.^

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Habitat – Vegetation Monitoring: FY 2009 - Final Report

This document summarizes the activities that were accomplished in FY 2009 on the research project “Cape Sable seaside sparrow habitat – Vegetation Monitoring”, a collaborative effort among the US Army Corps of Engineers, Florida International University, and the US Geological Survey. The major activities in 2009 included field work, data analysis and presentations. The results of 2009 field work were presented at the 4th International Congress of Fire Ecology and Management, Savannah, GA from November 30 to Dec 5, 2009 and at the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS) Fire Meeting, held at the Krome Center, Homestead, FL on December 8, 2009. Field sampling was conducted between March 23 and June 3, 2009, during which we resurveyed 234 sites: 191 Census sites, 3 sites on Transect B, 7 sites on Transect D, and 33 sites on Transect F. The number of sites sampled in 2009 was higher than in any previous year, primarily because a large number of sites burned in Mustang Corner fire and three other wild fires in 2008 were included in 2009 sampling. At all sites surveyed in 2009, we recorded structural and compositional vegetation parameters following the methods used in previous years (2003-2008) and tagged shrubs and trees (woody plants > 1 m) present in the 5 x 60 m plots. In addition, for the first time, we measured height of sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) stubble in the compositional plots at the sites that were burned in 2008. Field data were entered by field crews, and were thoroughly checked by Jay Sah (Co-PI) to ensure that the data were complete, correct, and compliant with sampling methodologies. The data are stored under a project folder on a shared network drive maintained by the Southeast Environmental Research Center (SERC) at FIU. The shared network drive is backed up daily.

Solving the mystery of Guanxi-a sociological explanation of social exchange and social networking in Guanxi practice

Guanxi, loosely defined as "inter-personal relations" or "personal connections," is one of the key socio-cultural concepts in understanding Chinese society. This thesis presented a theoretical examination of the Chinese socio-cultural concept of guanxi. By using a broad survey of the available literature, this thesis established the following points: Social structures shape and define the development of guanxi practice in Chinese society. Guanxi relationships are based on the social exchange of gifts and favors in dyadic or multi-stranded social networks. While following the general rules of reciprocity found in social exchange, guanxi exchange is also governed by the internalized social norms such as mianzi (face) and renqing (humanized obligation underpinned by human sentiment). Guanxi relationships are also network-oriented, featuring ties based on familiarity and mutual trust, and characterized by an interplay between expressiveness and instrumentalism.

Assessing the health outcomes of the family members of disabled individuals

The health utilization and death rates were captured for the family members of disabled individuals over a fifteen-year period to determine if exposure to disability in the family manifests poor health outcomes. Data from the Newfoundland Adult Health Survey (1995) was linked to fifteen years, 1995- 2010, of provincial health administrative data including hospital data, physician claims, and death records from the provincial health care system. The health records and survey data were analyzed in relation to the disability exposure burden experienced when a family member is disabled. The level of disability exposure burden was quantified based on the addition of individual disability scores for each family member. Disability exposure burden was associated with increased number of hospital separations, total hospitalization days and the number of physician visits, both General Practitioner and Specialist (p<0.1) but there was no association between death (p>0.1) and disability exposure burden. Family members of disabled individuals experienced increased rates of hospital separations, hospitalization days, and physician visits suggesting that deleterious health outcomes may be introduced when individuals are exposed to disability in the family unit.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The impact of late career job loss on myocardial infarction and stroke: a 10 year follow up using the health and retirement survey.

BACKGROUND: Involuntary job loss is a major life event associated with social, economic, behavioural, and health outcomes, for which older workers are at elevated risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the 10 year risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke associated with involuntary job loss among workers over 50 years of age. METHODS: Analysing data from the nationally representative US Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate whether workers who suffered involuntary job loss were at higher risk for subsequent MI and stroke than individuals who continued to work. The sample included 4301 individuals who were employed at the 1992 study baseline. RESULTS: Over the 10 year study frame, 582 individuals (13.5% of the sample) experienced involuntary job loss. After controlling for established predictors of the outcomes, displaced workers had a more than twofold increase in the risk of subsequent MI (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.49 to 4.14) and stroke (HR = 2.43; 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.98) relative to working persons. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the true costs of late career unemployment exceed financial deprivation, and include substantial health consequences. Physicians who treat individuals who lose jobs as they near retirement should consider the loss of employment a potential risk factor for adverse vascular health changes. Policy makers and programme planners should also be aware of the risks of job loss, so that programmatic interventions can be designed and implemented to ease the multiple burdens of joblessness.

Management of adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in UK primary care: a survey of general practitioners

Background: Compared to existing literature on childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), little published adult data are available, particularly outside of the United States. Using General Practitioner (GP) questionnaires from the United Kingdom, this study aimed to examine a number of issues related to ADHD in adults, across three cohorts of patients, adults who received ADHD drug treatment in childhood/adolescence but stopped prior to adulthood; adults who received ADHD drug treatment in childhood/adolescence and continued treatment into adulthood and adults who started ADHD drug treatment in adulthood.Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of ADHD and prescribed methylphenidate, dexamfetamine or atomoxetine were identified using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN). Dates when these drugs started and stopped were used to classify patients into the three cohorts. From each cohort, 50 patients were randomly selected and questionnaires were sent via THIN to their GPs.GPs returned completed questionnaires to THIN who forwarded anonymised copies to the researchers. Datasets were analysed using descriptive statistics.Results: Overall response rate was 89% (133/150). GPs stated that in 19 cases, the patient did not meet the criteria of that group; the number of valid questionnaires returned was 114 (76%). The following broad trends were observed: 1) GPs were not aware of the reason for treatment cessation in 43% of cases, 2) patient choice was the most common reason for discontinuation (56%), 3) 7% of patients who stopped pharmacological treatment subsequently reported experiencing ADHD symptoms, 4) 58% of patients who started pharmacological treatment for ADHD in adulthood received pharmacological treatment for other mental health conditions prior to the ADHD being diagnosed.Conclusion: This study presents some key findings relating to ADHD; GPs were often not aware of the reason for patients stopping ADHD treatment in childhood or adolescence. Patient choice was identified as the most common reason for treatment cessation. For patients who started pharmacological treatment in adulthood, many patients received pharmacological treatment for comorbidities before a diagnosis of ADHD was made.

Practices and outcomes of self-treatment with helminths based on physicians' observations.

The successful use of helminths as therapeutic agents to resolve inflammatory disease was first recorded 40 years ago. Subsequent work in animal models and in humans has demonstrated that the organisms might effectively treat a wide range of inflammatory diseases, including allergies, autoimmune disorders and inflammation-associated neuropsychiatric disorders. However, available information regarding the therapeutic uses and effects of helminths in humans is limited. This study probes the practices and experiences of individuals 'self-treating' with helminths through the eyes of their physicians. Five physicians monitoring more than 700 self-treating patients were interviewed. The results strongly support previous indications that helminth therapy can effectively treat a wide range of allergies, autoimmune conditions and neuropsychiatric disorders, such as major depression and anxiety disorders. Approximately 57% of the self-treating patients observed by physicians in the study had autism. Physicians reported that the majority of patients with autism and inflammation-associated co-morbidities responded favourably to therapy with either of the two most popular organisms currently used by self-treaters, Hymenolepis diminuta and Trichuris suis. However, approximately 1% of paediatric patients experienced severe gastrointestinal pains with the use of H. diminuta, although the symptoms were resolved with an anti-helminthic drug. Further, exposure to helminths apparently did not affect the impaired comprehension of social situations that is the hallmark of autism. These observations point toward potential starting points for clinical trials, and provide further support for the importance of such trials and for concerted efforts aimed at probing the potential of helminths, and perhaps other biologicals, for therapeutic use.