916 resultados para modeling and prediction
Resumo:
Le rôle des deux paires de bases universelles inverse Hoogsteen U : A ( RHUAs ) présentent chez les ARNt standards , une dans la boucle T et l'autre dans le noyau de la forme en L , a été étudiée. Pour chacun des RHUAs , un criblage génétique spécialisé in vivo chez les bactéries , le système suppresseur ambre ( pour l'étude de la RHUA dans la boucle T ) et le système d'ARNt de la sélénocystéine ( tRNASec ) ( pour l'étude de la RHUA dans le noyau ) , ont été utilisé pour générer des variants fonctionnels à partir de multiples librairies combinatoires . Ces variants ont ensuite été séquencé et soumis à une analyse systématique qui comprend la modélisation informatique et un type d'analyse phylogénétique. Les résultats du système suppresseur ambre ont montré un ensemble de variants fonctionnels qui ne nécessitent pas le motif RHUA dans la boucle T et qui ont remplacé la méthode standard de l'interaction entre les boucles D et T avec une double hélice interboucle , ILDH . D'autres études ont abouti à la détermination d'un modèle In silico de l'alternative à la norme standard de la boucle T, sous le nom de type III . Les résultats du système tRNASec ont révélé que pour cette ARNt exceptionnel, l'absence de RHUA ( dans le noyau ) assure une flexibilité accrue qui est spécifiquement nécessaire pour la fonction de tRNASec . Ainsi, les ARNt standards , à la différence de tRNASec , avec la présence universelle de RHUA dans le noyau , a été naturellement sélectionnée pour être rigide . Pris ensemble, la RHUA joue un rôle essentiel dans la stabilisation des interactions tertiaires.
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The aim of this study is to show the importance of two classification techniques, viz. decision tree and clustering, in prediction of learning disabilities (LD) of school-age children. LDs affect about 10 percent of all children enrolled in schools. The problems of children with specific learning disabilities have been a cause of concern to parents and teachers for some time. Decision trees and clustering are powerful and popular tools used for classification and prediction in Data mining. Different rules extracted from the decision tree are used for prediction of learning disabilities. Clustering is the assignment of a set of observations into subsets, called clusters, which are useful in finding the different signs and symptoms (attributes) present in the LD affected child. In this paper, J48 algorithm is used for constructing the decision tree and K-means algorithm is used for creating the clusters. By applying these classification techniques, LD in any child can be identified
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Lower partial moments plays an important role in the analysis of risks and in income/poverty studies. In the present paper, we further investigate its importance in stochastic modeling and prove some characterization theorems arising out of it. We also identify its relationships with other important applied models such as weighted and equilibrium models. Finally, some applications of lower partial moments in poverty studies are also examined
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Software systems are progressively being deployed in many facets of human life. The implication of the failure of such systems, has an assorted impact on its customers. The fundamental aspect that supports a software system, is focus on quality. Reliability describes the ability of the system to function under specified environment for a specified period of time and is used to objectively measure the quality. Evaluation of reliability of a computing system involves computation of hardware and software reliability. Most of the earlier works were given focus on software reliability with no consideration for hardware parts or vice versa. However, a complete estimation of reliability of a computing system requires these two elements to be considered together, and thus demands a combined approach. The present work focuses on this and presents a model for evaluating the reliability of a computing system. The method involves identifying the failure data for hardware components, software components and building a model based on it, to predict the reliability. To develop such a model, focus is given to the systems based on Open Source Software, since there is an increasing trend towards its use and only a few studies were reported on the modeling and measurement of the reliability of such products. The present work includes a thorough study on the role of Free and Open Source Software, evaluation of reliability growth models, and is trying to present an integrated model for the prediction of reliability of a computational system. The developed model has been compared with existing models and its usefulness of is being discussed.
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Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.
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Low perceptual familiarity with relatively rarer left-handed as opposed to more common right-handed individuals may result in athletes' poorer ability to anticipate the former's action intentions. Part of such left-right asymmetry in visual anticipation could be due to an inefficient gaze strategy during confrontation with left-handed individuals. To exemplify, observers may not mirror their gaze when viewing left- vs. right-handed actions but preferentially fixate on an opponent's right body side, irrespective of an opponent's handedness, owing to the predominant exposure to right-handed actions. So far empirical verification of such assumption, however, is lacking. Here we report on an experiment where team-handball goalkeepers' and non-goalkeepers' gaze behavior was recorded while they predicted throw direction of left- and right-handed 7-m penalties shown as videos on a computer monitor. As expected, goalkeepers were considerably more accurate than non-goalkeepers and prediction was better against right- than left-handed penalties. However, there was no indication of differences in gaze measures (i.e., number of fixations, overall and final fixation duration, time-course of horizontal or vertical fixation deviation) as a function of skill group or the penalty-takers' handedness. Findings suggest that inferior anticipation of left-handed compared to right-handed individuals' action intentions may not be associated with misalignment in gaze behavior. Rather, albeit looking similarly, accuracy differences could be due to observers' differential ability of picking up and interpreting the visual information provided by left- vs. right-handed movements.
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In this work, we present an atomistic-continuum model for simulations of ultrafast laser-induced melting processes in semiconductors on the example of silicon. The kinetics of transient non-equilibrium phase transition mechanisms is addressed with MD method on the atomic level, whereas the laser light absorption, strong generated electron-phonon nonequilibrium, fast heat conduction, and photo-excited free carrier diffusion are accounted for with a continuum TTM-like model (called nTTM). First, we independently consider the applications of nTTM and MD for the description of silicon, and then construct the combined MD-nTTM model. Its development and thorough testing is followed by a comprehensive computational study of fast nonequilibrium processes induced in silicon by an ultrashort laser irradiation. The new model allowed to investigate the effect of laser-induced pressure and temperature of the lattice on the melting kinetics. Two competing melting mechanisms, heterogeneous and homogeneous, were identified in our big-scale simulations. Apart from the classical heterogeneous melting mechanism, the nucleation of the liquid phase homogeneously inside the material significantly contributes to the melting process. The simulations showed, that due to the open diamond structure of the crystal, the laser-generated internal compressive stresses reduce the crystal stability against the homogeneous melting. Consequently, the latter can take a massive character within several picoseconds upon the laser heating. Due to the large negative volume of melting of silicon, the material contracts upon the phase transition, relaxes the compressive stresses, and the subsequent melting proceeds heterogeneously until the excess of thermal energy is consumed. A series of simulations for a range of absorbed fluences allowed us to find the threshold fluence value at which homogeneous liquid nucleation starts contributing to the classical heterogeneous propagation of the solid-liquid interface. A series of simulations for a range of the material thicknesses showed that the sample width we chosen in our simulations (800 nm) corresponds to a thick sample. Additionally, in order to support the main conclusions, the results were verified for a different interatomic potential. Possible improvements of the model to account for nonthermal effects are discussed and certain restrictions on the suitable interatomic potentials are found. As a first step towards the inclusion of these effects into MD-nTTM, we performed nanometer-scale MD simulations with a new interatomic potential, designed to reproduce ab initio calculations at the laser-induced electronic temperature of 18946 K. The simulations demonstrated that, similarly to thermal melting, nonthermal phase transition occurs through nucleation. A series of simulations showed that higher (lower) initial pressure reinforces (hinders) the creation and the growth of nonthermal liquid nuclei. For the example of Si, the laser melting kinetics of semiconductors was found to be noticeably different from that of metals with a face-centered cubic crystal structure. The results of this study, therefore, have important implications for interpretation of experimental data on the kinetics of melting process of semiconductors.
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Search engines - such as Google - have been characterized as "Databases of intentions". This class will focus on different aspects of intentionality on the web, including goal mining, goal modeling and goal-oriented search. Readings: M. Strohmaier, M. Lux, M. Granitzer, P. Scheir, S. Liaskos, E. Yu, How Do Users Express Goals on the Web? - An Exploration of Intentional Structures in Web Search, We Know'07 International Workshop on Collaborative Knowledge Management for Web Information Systems in conjunction with WISE'07, Nancy, France, 2007. [Web link] Readings: Automatic identification of user goals in web search, U. Lee and Z. Liu and J. Cho WWW '05: Proceedings of the 14th International World Wide Web Conference 391--400 (2005) [Web link]
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The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelation between variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics
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This paper describes the user modeling component of EPIAIM, a consultation system for data analysis in epidemiology. The component is aimed at representing knowledge of concepts in the domain, so that their explanations can be adapted to user needs. The first part of the paper describes two studies aimed at analysing user requirements. The first one is a questionnaire study which examines the respondents' familiarity with concepts. The second one is an analysis of concept descriptions in textbooks and from expert epidemiologists, which examines how discourse strategies are tailored to the level of experience of the expected audience. The second part of the paper describes how the results of these studies have been used to design the user modeling component of EPIAIM. This module works in a two-step approach. In the first step, a few trigger questions allow the activation of a stereotype that includes a "body" and an "inference component". The body is the representation of the body of knowledge that a class of users is expected to know, along with the probability that the knowledge is known. In the inference component, the learning process of concepts is represented as a belief network. Hence, in the second step the belief network is used to refine the initial default information in the stereotype's body. This is done by asking a few questions on those concepts where it is uncertain whether or not they are known to the user, and propagating this new evidence to revise the whole situation. The system has been implemented on a workstation under UNIX. An example of functioning is presented, and advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed.
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A positive salinity anomaly of 0.2 PSU was observed between 50 and 200 m over the years 2000–2001 across the Mozambique Channel at a section at 17°S which was repeated in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008. Meanwhile, a moored array is continued from 2003 to 2008. This anomaly was most distinct showing an interannual but nonseasonal variation. The possible origin of the anomaly is investigated using output from three ocean general circulation models (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modeling, and Parallel Ocean Program). The most probable mechanism for the salinity anomaly is the anomalous inflow of subtropical waters caused by a weakening of the northern part of the South Equatorial Current by weaker trade winds. This mechanism was found in all three numerical models. In addition, the numerical models indicate a possible salinization of one of the source water masses to the Mozambique Channel as an additional cause of the anomaly. The anomaly propagated southward into the Agulhas Current and northward along the African coast.
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Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, with H2O and with D2O have been carried out in the gas phase at 296 and at 339 K, using laser flash photolysis to generate and monitor SiH2. The reaction was studied over the pressure range 10-200 Torr with SF6 as bath gas. The second-order rate constants obtained were pressure dependent, indicating that the reaction is a third-body assisted association process. Rate constants at 339 K were about half those at 296 K. Isotope effects, k(H)/k(D), were small averaging 1.076 0.080, suggesting no involvement of H- (or D-) atom transfer in the rate determining step. RRKM modeling was undertaken based on a transition state appropriate to formation of the expected zwitterionic donoracceptor complex, H2Si...OH2. Because the reaction is close to the low pressure (third order) region, it is difficult to be definitive about the activated complex structure. Various structures were tried, both with and without the incorporation of rotational modes, leading to values for the high-pressure limiting (i.e., true secondorder) rate constant in the range 9.5 x 10(-11) to 5 x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule' s(-1). The RRKM modeling and mechanistic interpretation is supported by ab initio quantum calculations carried out at the G2 and G3 levels. The results are compared and contrasted with the previous studies.
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Objectives. Theoretic modeling and experimental studies suggest that functional electrical stimulation (FES) can improve trunk balance in spinal cord injured subjects. This can have a positive impact on daily life, increasing the volume of bimanual workspace, improving sitting posture, and wheelchair propulsion. A closed loop controller for the stimulation is desirable, as it can potentially decrease muscle fatigue and offer better rejection to disturbances. This paper proposes a biomechanical model of the human trunk, and a procedure for its identification, to be used for the future development of FES controllers. The advantage over previous models resides in the simplicity of the solution proposed, which makes it possible to identify the model just before a stimulation session ( taking into account the variability of the muscle response to the FES). Materials and Methods. The structure of the model is based on previous research on FES and muscle physiology. Some details could not be inferred from previous studies, and were determined from experimental data. Experiments with a paraplegic volunteer were conducted in order to measure the moments exerted by the trunk-passive tissues and artificially stimulated muscles. Data for model identification and validation also were collected. Results. Using the proposed structure and identification procedure, the model could adequately reproduce the moments exerted during the experiments. The study reveals that the stimulated trunk extensors can exert maximal moment when the trunk is in the upright position. In contrast, previous studies show that able-bodied subjects can exert maximal trunk extension when flexed forward. Conclusions. The proposed model and identification procedure are a successful first step toward the development of a model-based controller for trunk FES. The model also gives information on the trunk in unique conditions, normally not observable in able-bodied subjects (ie, subject only to extensor muscles contraction).
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Focuses on recent advances in research on block copolymers, covering chemistry (synthesis), physics (phase behaviors, rheology, modeling), and applications (melts and solutions). Written by a team of internationally respected scientists from industry and academia, this text compiles and reviews the expanse of research that has taken place over the last five years into one accessible resource. Ian Hamley is the world-leading scientist in the field of block copolymer research Presents the recent advances in the area, covering chemistry, physics and applications. Provides a broad coverage from synthesis to fundamental physics through to applications Examines the potential of block copolymers in nanotechnology as self-assembling soft materials
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Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.