A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Analysis of marine bivalve shellfish from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, for Toxoplasma gondii

The aim of this study was to determine if Toxoplasma gondii are present in oysters (Crassostrea rhizophorae) and mussels (Mytella guyanensis) under natural conditions using a bioassay in mice and molecular detection methods. We first compared two standard protocols for DNA extraction, phenol-chloroform (PC) and guanidine-thiocyanate (GT), for both molluscs. A total of 300 oysters and 300 mussels were then acquired from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, between March and August of 2008 and divided into 60 groups of 5 oysters and 20 groups of 15 mussels. To isolate the parasite, five mice were orally inoculated with sieved tissue homogenates from each group of oysters or mussels. For molecular detection of T. gondii, DNA from mussels was extracted using the PC method and DNA from oysters was extracted using the GT method. A nested-PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) based on the amplification of a 155 bp fragment from the B1 gene of T. gondii was then performed. Eleven PCR-RFLP (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) markers, SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1, CS3 and Apico, were used to genotype positive samples. There was no isolation of the parasite by bioassay in mice. T. gondii was not detected in any of the groups of mussels by nested-PCR. DNA of T. gondii was apparently detected by nested-PCR in 2 groups of oysters (3.3%). Genotyping of these two positive samples was not successful. The results suggest that oysters of the species C. rhizophorae, the most common species from the coast of Sao Paulo, can filter and retain T. gondii oocysts from the marine environment. Ingestion of raw oysters as a potential transmission source of T. gondii to humans and marine mammals should be further investigated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bioeconomic analysis of aquaculture's impact on wild stocks and biodiversity

Anderson theorizes that development of the aquaculture of a species of fish (also captured in an open-access fishery) favours the conservation of its wild stocks, if competitive market conditions prevail. However, this theory is shown to be subject to significant limitations. While this is less so within his model, it is particularly so in an extended one outlined here. The extended model allows for the possibility that aquaculture development can impact negatively on wild stocks thereby shifting the supply curve of the capture fishery, or raise the demand for the fish species subject both to aquaculture and capture. Such development can threaten wild stocks and their biodiversity. While aquaculture development could in principle have no impact on the biodiversity of wild stocks or even raise aquatic biodiversity overall, its impact in the long-term probably will be one of reducing aquatic diversity both in the wild and overall.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.