Collective Organization of Complex Networks: Emergent Scales, Vulnerability, and Targeting of Desired Dynamics

Cuando una colectividad de sistemas dinámicos acoplados mediante una estructura irregular de interacciones evoluciona, se observan dinámicas de gran complejidad y fenómenos emergentes imposibles de predecir a partir de las propiedades de los sistemas individuales. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es precisamente avanzar en nuestra comprensión de la relación existente entre la topología de interacciones y las dinámicas colectivas que una red compleja es capaz de mantener. Siendo este un tema amplio que se puede abordar desde distintos puntos de vista, en esta tesis se han estudiado tres problemas importantes dentro del mismo que están relacionados entre sí. Por un lado, en numerosos sistemas naturales y artificiales que se pueden describir mediante una red compleja la topología no es estática, sino que depende de la dinámica que se desarrolla en la red: un ejemplo son las redes de neuronas del cerebro. En estas redes adaptativas la propia topología emerge como consecuencia de una autoorganización del sistema. Para conocer mejor cómo pueden emerger espontáneamente las propiedades comúnmente observadas en redes reales, hemos estudiado el comportamiento de sistemas que evolucionan según reglas adaptativas locales con base empírica. Nuestros resultados numéricos y analíticos muestran que la autoorganización del sistema da lugar a dos de las propiedades más universales de las redes complejas: a escala mesoscópica, la aparición de una estructura de comunidades, y, a escala macroscópica, la existencia de una ley de potencias en la distribución de las interacciones en la red. El hecho de que estas propiedades aparecen en dos modelos con leyes de evolución cuantitativamente distintas que siguen unos mismos principios adaptativos sugiere que estamos ante un fenómeno que puede ser muy general, y estar en el origen de estas propiedades en sistemas reales. En segundo lugar, proponemos una medida que permite clasificar los elementos de una red compleja en función de su relevancia para el mantenimiento de dinámicas colectivas. En concreto, estudiamos la vulnerabilidad de los distintos elementos de una red frente a perturbaciones o grandes fluctuaciones, entendida como una medida del impacto que estos acontecimientos externos tienen en la interrupción de una dinámica colectiva. Los resultados que se obtienen indican que la vulnerabilidad dinámica es sobre todo dependiente de propiedades locales, por tanto nuestras conclusiones abarcan diferentes topologías, y muestran la existencia de una dependencia no trivial entre la vulnerabilidad y la conectividad de los elementos de una red. Finalmente, proponemos una estrategia de imposición de una dinámica objetivo genérica en una red dada e investigamos su validez en redes con diversas topologías que mantienen regímenes dinámicos turbulentos. Se obtiene como resultado que las redes heterogéneas (y la amplia mayora de las redes reales estudiadas lo son) son las más adecuadas para nuestra estrategia de targeting de dinámicas deseadas, siendo la estrategia muy efectiva incluso en caso de disponer de un conocimiento muy imperfecto de la topología de la red. Aparte de la relevancia teórica para la comprensión de fenómenos colectivos en sistemas complejos, los métodos y resultados propuestos podrán dar lugar a aplicaciones en sistemas experimentales y tecnológicos, como por ejemplo los sistemas neuronales in vitro, el sistema nervioso central (en el estudio de actividades síncronas de carácter patológico), las redes eléctricas o los sistemas de comunicaciones. ABSTRACT The time evolution of an ensemble of dynamical systems coupled through an irregular interaction scheme gives rise to dynamics of great of complexity and emergent phenomena that cannot be predicted from the properties of the individual systems. The main objective of this thesis is precisely to increase our understanding of the interplay between the interaction topology and the collective dynamics that a complex network can support. This is a very broad subject, so in this thesis we will limit ourselves to the study of three relevant problems that have strong connections among them. First, it is a well-known fact that in many natural and manmade systems that can be represented as complex networks the topology is not static; rather, it depends on the dynamics taking place on the network (as it happens, for instance, in the neuronal networks in the brain). In these adaptive networks the topology itself emerges from the self-organization in the system. To better understand how the properties that are commonly observed in real networks spontaneously emerge, we have studied the behavior of systems that evolve according to local adaptive rules that are empirically motivated. Our numerical and analytical results show that self-organization brings about two of the most universally found properties in complex networks: at the mesoscopic scale, the appearance of a community structure, and, at the macroscopic scale, the existence of a power law in the weight distribution of the network interactions. The fact that these properties show up in two models with quantitatively different mechanisms that follow the same general adaptive principles suggests that our results may be generalized to other systems as well, and they may be behind the origin of these properties in some real systems. We also propose a new measure that provides a ranking of the elements in a network in terms of their relevance for the maintenance of collective dynamics. Specifically, we study the vulnerability of the elements under perturbations or large fluctuations, interpreted as a measure of the impact these external events have on the disruption of collective motion. Our results suggest that the dynamic vulnerability measure depends largely on local properties (our conclusions thus being valid for different topologies) and they show a non-trivial dependence of the vulnerability on the connectivity of the network elements. Finally, we propose a strategy for the imposition of generic goal dynamics on a given network, and we explore its performance in networks with different topologies that support turbulent dynamical regimes. It turns out that heterogeneous networks (and most real networks that have been studied belong in this category) are the most suitable for our strategy for the targeting of desired dynamics, the strategy being very effective even when the knowledge on the network topology is far from accurate. Aside from their theoretical relevance for the understanding of collective phenomena in complex systems, the methods and results here discussed might lead to applications in experimental and technological systems, such as in vitro neuronal systems, the central nervous system (where pathological synchronous activity sometimes occurs), communication systems or power grids.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

High Fidelity Models for Near-Earth Object Dynamics

Motivado por los últimos hallazgos realizados gracias a los recientes avances tecnológicos y misiones espaciales, el estudio de los asteroides ha despertado el interés de la comunidad científica. Tal es así que las misiones a asteroides han proliferado en los últimos años (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) incentivadas por su enorme interés científico. Los asteroides son constituyentes fundamentales en la evolución del Sistema Solar, son además grandes concentraciones de valiosos recursos naturales, y también pueden considerarse como objectivos estratégicos para la futura exploración espacial. Desde hace tiempo se viene especulando con la posibilidad de capturar objetos próximos a la Tierra (NEOs en su acrónimo anglosajón) y acercarlos a nuestro planeta, permitiendo así un acceso asequible a los mismos para estudiarlos in-situ, explotar sus recursos u otras finalidades. Por otro lado, las asteroides se consideran con frecuencia como posibles peligros de magnitud planetaria, ya que impactos de estos objetos con la Tierra suceden constantemente, y un asteroide suficientemente grande podría desencadenar eventos catastróficos. Pese a la gravedad de tales acontecimientos, lo cierto es que son ciertamente difíciles de predecir. De hecho, los ricos aspectos dinámicos de los asteroides, su modelado complejo y las incertidumbres observaciones hacen que predecir su posición futura con la precisión necesaria sea todo un reto. Este hecho se hace más relevante cuando los asteroides sufren encuentros próximos con la Tierra, y más aún cuando estos son recurrentes. En tales situaciones en las cuales fuera necesario tomar medidas para mitigar este tipo de riesgos, saber estimar con precisión sus trayectorias y probabilidades de colisión es de una importancia vital. Por ello, se necesitan herramientas avanzadas para modelar su dinámica y predecir sus órbitas con precisión, y son también necesarios nuevos conceptos tecnológicos para manipular sus órbitas llegado el caso. El objetivo de esta Tesis es proporcionar nuevos métodos, técnicas y soluciones para abordar estos retos. Las contribuciones de esta Tesis se engloban en dos áreas: una dedicada a la propagación numérica de asteroides, y otra a conceptos de deflexión y captura de asteroides. Por lo tanto, la primera parte de este documento presenta novedosos avances de apliación a la propagación dinámica de alta precisión de NEOs empleando métodos de regularización y perturbaciones, con especial énfasis en el método DROMO, mientras que la segunda parte expone ideas innovadoras para la captura de asteroides y comenta el uso del “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) como tecnología para deflectarlos. Abstract Driven by the latest discoveries enabled by recent technological advances and space missions, the study of asteroids has awakened the interest of the scientific community. In fact, asteroid missions have become very popular in the recent years (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) motivated by their outstanding scientific interest. Asteroids are fundamental constituents in the evolution of the Solar System, can be seen as vast concentrations of valuable natural resources, and are also considered as strategic targets for the future of space exploration. For long it has been hypothesized with the possibility of capturing small near-Earth asteroids and delivering them to the vicinity of the Earth in order to allow an affordable access to them for in-situ science, resource utilization and other purposes. On the other side of the balance, asteroids are often seen as potential planetary hazards, since impacts with the Earth happen all the time, and eventually an asteroid large enough could trigger catastrophic events. In spite of the severity of such occurrences, they are also utterly hard to predict. In fact, the rich dynamical aspects of asteroids, their complex modeling and observational uncertainties make exceptionally challenging to predict their future position accurately enough. This becomes particularly relevant when asteroids exhibit close encounters with the Earth, and more so when these happen recurrently. In such situations, where mitigation measures may need to be taken, it is of paramount importance to be able to accurately estimate their trajectories and collision probabilities. As a consequence, advanced tools are needed to model their dynamics and accurately predict their orbits, as well as new technological concepts to manipulate their orbits if necessary. The goal of this Thesis is to provide new methods, techniques and solutions to address these challenges. The contributions of this Thesis fall into two areas: one devoted to the numerical propagation of asteroids, and another to asteroid deflection and capture concepts. Hence, the first part of the dissertation presents novel advances applicable to the high accuracy dynamical propagation of near-Earth asteroids using regularization and perturbations techniques, with a special emphasis in the DROMO method, whereas the second part exposes pioneering ideas for asteroid retrieval missions and discusses the use of an “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) for asteroid deflection purposes.

Regenerative morphological traits in a woody species community in Tumbesian tropical dry forest.

The study of functional morphological traits enables us to know fundamental aspects of the dynamics of plant communities in local and global habitats. Regenerative morphological traits play an important role in defining plant history and ecological behavior. Seed and fruit characteristics determine to a large extent the patterns for dispersal, germination, establishment and seedling recruitment a given species exhibits on its natural habitat. Despite their prominent role, seed and fruit traits have been poorly studied at the community level of woody plant species in neo-tropical dry forests. In the present study we aimed at i) evaluate the functional role of morphological traits of seeds, fruits and embryo in woody plant species; ii) determine which are the morphological patterns present in seeds collected from the community of woody species that occur in neo-tropical dry forests; and iii) compare woody plant species seed mass values comparatively between neo-tropical dry and tropical forests. To do so, mature seeds were collected from 79 plant species that occur in the Tumbesian forest of Southwest Ecuador. The studied species included the 42 and 37 most representative tree and shrubbery species of the Tumbesian forest respectively. A total of 18 morphological traits (seven quantitative and 11 qualitative) were measured and evaluated in the seeds, fruits and embryos of the selected species, and we compared the seeds mass with other forest types. Our results showed a huge heterogeneity among traits values in the studied species. Seed mass, volume and number were the traits that vary the most at the community level, i.e. seed length ranged from 1.3 to 39 mm, and seed width from 0.6 to 25 mm. Only six embryo types were found among the 79 plant species. In 40 % of the cases, fully developed inverted embryos with large and thick cotyledons to store considerable amount of nutrients were recorded. We concluded that highly variable and functionally complementary morphological traits occur among the studied woody plants of the dry Tumbesian forest. The latter favors a plethora of behavioral mechanisms to coexist among woody species of the dry forest in response to the environmental stress that is typical of arid areas.

Variation in per capita interaction strength: Thresholds due to nonlinear dynamics and nonequilibrium conditions

I measured the strength of interaction between a marine herbivore and its growing resource over a realistic range of absolute and relative abundances. The herbivores (hermit crabs: Pagurus spp.) have slow and/or weak functional and numerical responses to epiphytic diatoms (Isthmia nervosa), which show logistic growth in the absence of consumers. By isolating this interaction in containers in the field, I mimicked many of the physical and biological variables characteristic of the intertidal while controlling the densities of focal species. The per capita effects of consumers on the population dynamics of their resource (i.e., interaction strength) were defined by using the relationship between hermit crab density and proportional change in the resource. When this relationship is fit by a Weibull function, a single parameter distinguishes constant interaction strength from one that varies as a function of density. Constant interaction strength causes the proportion of diatoms to fall linearly or proportionally as hermit crab density increases whereas per capita effects that increase with density cause an accelerating decline. Although many mathematical models of species interactions assume linear dynamics and invariant parameters, at least near equilibrium, the per capita effects of hermit crabs on diatoms varied substantially, apparently crossing a threshold from weak to strong when consumption exceeded resource production. This threshold separates a domain of coexistence from one of local extinction of the resource. Such thresholds may help explain trophic cascades, resource compensation, and context-dependent interaction strengths, while indicating a way to predict trophic effects, despite nonlinearities, as a function of vital rates.

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function : When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

Peer reviewed

Measurement of community metabolism and significance in the coral reef CO2 source-sink debate

Two methods are commonly used to measure the community metabolism (primary production, respiration, and calcification) of shallow-water marine communities and infer air–sea CO2 fluxes: the pH-total alkalinity and pH-O2 techniques. The underlying assumptions of each technique are examined to assess the recent claim that the most widely used technique in coral reefs (pH-total alkalinity), may have provided spurious results in the past because of high rates of nitrification and release of phosphoric acid in the water column [Chisholm, J. R. M. & Barnes, D. J. (1998) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 6566–6569]. At least three lines of evidence suggest that this claim is not founded. First, the rate of nitrification required to explain the discrepancy between the two methods recently reported is not realistic as it is much higher than the rates measured in another reef system and greater than the highest rate measured in a marine environment. Second, fluxes of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphorus are not consistent with high rates of nitrification and release of phosphoric acid. Third, the consistency of the metabolic parameters obtained by using the two techniques is in good agreement in two sites recently investigated. The pH-total alkalinity technique therefore appears to be applicable in most coral reef systems. Consequently, the conclusion that most coral reef flats are sources of CO2 to the atmosphere does not need revision. Furthermore, we provide geochemical evidence that calcification in coral reefs, as well as in other calcifying ecosystems, is a long-term source of CO2 for the atmosphere.

Community attributes determine facilitation potential in a semi-arid steppe

Studies on positive plant–plant relations have traditionally focused on pair-wise interactions. Conversely, the interaction with other co-occurring species has scarcely been addressed, despite the fact that the entire community may affect plant performance. We used woody vegetation patches as models to evaluate community facilitation in semi-arid steppes. We characterized biotic and physical attributes of 53 woody patches (patch size, litter accumulation, canopy density, vegetation cover, species number and identity, and phylogenetic distance), and soil fertility (organic C and total N), and evaluated their relative importance for the performance of seedlings of Pistacia lentiscus, a keystone woody species in western Mediterranean steppes. Seedlings were planted underneath the patches, and on their northern and southern edges. Woody patches positively affected seedling survival but not seedling growth. Soil fertility was higher underneath the patches than elsewhere. Physical and biotic attributes of woody patches affected seedling survival, but these effects depended on microsite conditions. The composition of the community of small shrubs and perennial grasses growing underneath the patches controlled seedling performance. An increase in Stipa tenacissima and a decrease in Brachypodium retusum increased the probability of survival. The cover of these species and other small shrubs, litter depth and community phylogenetic distance, were also related to seedling survival. Seedlings planted on the northern edge of the patches were mostly affected by attributes of the biotic community. These traits were of lesser importance in seedlings planted underneath and in the southern edge of patches, suggesting that constraints to seedling establishment differed within the patches. Our study highlights the importance of taking into consideration community attributes over pair-wise interactions when evaluating the outcome of ecological interactions in multi-specific communities, as they have profound implications in the composition, function and management of semi-arid steppes.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Marine debris occurrence and treatment: A review

Marine debris produces a wide variety of negative environmental, economic, safety, health and cultural impacts. Most marine litter has a very low decomposition rate (as plastics, which are the most abundant type of marine debris), leading to a gradual, but significant accumulation in the coastal and marine environment. Along that time, marine debris is a significant source of chemical contaminants to the marine environment. Once extracted from the water, incineration is the method most widely used to treat marine debris. Other treatment methods have been tested, but they still need some improvement and so far have only been used in some countries. Several extraction and collection programs have been carried out. However, as marine debris keep entering the sea, these programs result insufficient and the problem of marine debris will continue its increase. The present work addresses the environmental impact and social aspects of the marine debris, with a review of the state of the art in the treatments of this kind of waste, together with an estimation of the worldwide occurrence and characteristics.

The Discursive double game of EMU reform: the clash of titans between French White Knight and German Iron Lady. Paper presented at the 9th Biennial Conference European Community Studies Association–Canada (ECSA-C), Ottawa, Ontario, April 27-28, 2012

From the Introduction. In the aftermath of the EU’s enlargement towards Central and Eastern Europe, many scholars and observers of European integration were proclaiming that the French-German “engine” of Europe had come to an end. The political legitimacy of French-German initiatives was contested by coalitions of smaller member states and the ‘new Europe’ was calling for new leadership dynamics. However, the experience of the Eurozone debt crisis provided dramatic evidence that no alternative to the Franco-German partnership has yet to emerge in the enlarged EU. In a time of existential crisis, Franco-German initiatives appear to have remained the basic dynamic of integration. However, unlike in the past, agreements on steps forward have proven to be particularly difficult. This is largely due to these countries’ contrasting political economic policy ideas, cultures, and practices....the paper analyses the ideational ‘frames’ of the two leaders while tracing their discursive interactions against changing background conditions since the European debt crisis was triggered by Greece in October 2009 until the last measures taken in 2012 before the French Presidential elections. The empirical analysis is based on a systematic corpus of press conferences and media interviews by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel after European summits. It is complemented by a number of press interviews including some given by their respective Finance Ministers) and important speeches in that same period of time.

Figure 2. Downcore variations of total diatom concentration in core MD02-2529

The modern eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is a major natural source for atmospheric carbon dioxide and is thought to be connected to high-latitude ocean dynamics by oceanic teleconnections on glacial-interglacial timescales. A wealth of sedimentary records aiming at reconstructing last Quaternary changes in primary productivity and nutrient utilization have been devoted to understanding those linkages between the EEP and other distant oceanic areas. Most of these records are, however, clustered in the pelagic EEP cold tongue, with comparatively little attention devoted to coastal areas. Here we present downcore measurements of the composition and concentration of the diatom assemblage together with opal (biogenic silica) concentration at site MD02-2529 recovered in the coastal Panama Basin. Piston core MD02-2529, collected in an area affected by a multitude of processes, provides evidence for strong variations in diatom production at the millennial timescale during the last glacial cycle. The maxima in total diatom concentration occurred during the early marine isotopic stage (MIS) 4 as well as during the MIS 4/3 transition and MIS 3. Rapid changes in diatom concentrations during the MIS 3 mimics Bond cycles as independently recorded by the SSS estimation derived from planktonic foraminifera from the same core. Such patterns indicate a clear linkage between diatom production in the coastal EEP and rapid climate changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic. In parallel, the long-term succession of the diatom community from coastal diatoms, predominantly thriving during MIS 5 and 4, towards pelagic diatoms, dominant during MIS 3 and 2, points to a long-term change in the surface hydrology. During Heinrich Events, diatoms strongly reduced their production, probably due to enhanced stratification in the upper water column. After the last glacial maximum, diatom production and valve preservation strongly decreased in response to the advection of nutrient (H2SiO4)-depleted, warmer water masses. Our high-resolution record highlights how regional climatic processes can modulate rapid changes in siliceous primary production as triggered by wind-induced local upwelling, indicating that millennial climatic variability can overtake other prominent hydrological processes such as those related to silicic acid leakage.