Efficient Marginal Likelihood Computation for Gaussian Process Regression

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional hyperparameters which need to be tuned in order to achieve optimum predictive performance; this operation can be efficiently performed in an Empirical Bayes fashion by maximizing the posterior marginal likelihood of the observed data. Since the score function of this optimization problem is in general characterized by the presence of local optima, it is necessary to resort to global optimization strategies, which require a large number of function evaluations. Given that the evaluation is usually computationally intensive and badly scaled with respect to the dataset size, the maximum number of observations that can be treated simultaneously is quite limited. In this paper, we consider the case of hyperparameter tuning in Gaussian process regression. A straightforward implementation of the posterior log-likelihood for this model requires O(N^3) operations for every iteration of the optimization procedure, where N is the number of examples in the input dataset. We derive a novel set of identities that allow, after an initial overhead of O(N^3), the evaluation of the score function, as well as the Jacobian and Hessian matrices, in O(N) operations. We prove how the proposed identities, that follow from the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, yield a reduction of several orders of magnitude in the computation time for the hyperparameter optimization problem. Notably, the proposed solution provides computational advantages even with respect to state of the art approximations that rely on sparse kernel matrices.

Desire for fertility and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in selected antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, North West Oromia, Ethiopia- A cross sectional study

Background: Most recently fertility issues in HIV positive men and women are becoming increasingly important. Because of ART access and its good life effect, it is expected that the need and desire to get married, to have children and to have sexual partners for PLWHA would change with the regard to reproductive health. In Ethiopia HIV positive individuals may or may not have desire to have children. And the extent of this desire and how it varies by individual, health and demographic characteristics is not well known.

Objective: the aim of the study was to assess desire for fertility and associated factors among PLWHA in selected ART clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods: A cross-sectional, institutional-based study that employed quantitative and qualitative in-depth interviews was conducted. Three hundred twenty one study subjects were selected using systematic random sampling technique and the data was collected using interviewer administered structured questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using EPI Info version 3.5.1 and SPSS version 16. P-value <0.05 was taken as statistically significant and logistic regression was used to control potential confounding factors.

Results: Seventy three (57.9%) of the males and seventy six (39%) of the females desired to have children, giving a total of 149(46.4%) of all study participants. PLWHA who desired children were younger (AOR:3.3, 95%CI: 1.3-8.9), married (AOR: 5.8, 95%CI: 2.7-12.8), had no children (AOR: 75, 95%CI: 20.1-273.3) and males (AOR; 1.9, 95%CI: 1.02-3.62) compared with their counter parts. The major reason for those people who did not desire children were having desired number of children 80 (46.5%) followed by fear of HIV transmission to child reported by 42 (24.4%) of them.

Conclusion: A considerable number of PLWHA wants to have a child currently or in the near future. Many variables like socio demography, partner related, number of alive children and HIV related disease condition were significantly associated with fertility desire.

On Irish sticklebacks: morphological diversification in a secondary contact zone

Question: How parallel is adaptive evolution when it occurs from different genetic backgrounds?
Background: Divergent evolutionary lineages of several post-glacial fish species including the threespine stickleback are found together in Ireland.
Goals: To investigate the morphological diversity of stickleback populations in Ireland and assess whether morphology evolved in parallel between evolutionary lineages.
Methods: We sampled stickleback from lake, river, and coastal habitats across Ireland. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA data revealed evolutionary history. Geometric morphometrics and linear trait measurements characterized morphology. We used a multivariate approach to quantify parallel and non-parallel divergence within and between lineages.
Results: Repeated evolution of similar morphologies in similar habitats occurred across Ireland, concordant with patterns observed elsewhere in the stickleback distribution. A strong pattern of habitat-specific morphology existed even among divergent lineages. Furthermore, a strong signal of shared morphological divergence occurred along a marine–freshwater axis. Evidently, deterministic natural selection played a more important role in driving freshwater adaptation than independent evolutionary history.

Anytime Marginal MAP Inference

This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.

Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas?

Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites.

Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan 'panhandle').

Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites.

Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions.

Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Spatial and temporal variability of the freshwater reservoir effect (FRE) in lacustrine sediments in a cold climate zone, Northwest Territories (Canada)

Climate variability along the 600 km Tibbitt to Contwyoto Winter Road (TCWR) in central Northwest Territories is poorly understood. With the transportation of goods from Yellowknife to the mines projected to increase significantly as new mines open, it is critical that planners and mine developers have reasonable data on the future viability of the road, as alternative transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high.

The research presented here is part of a paleoclimate study based on the analysis of multiple proxy data derived from freeze cores in lakes along the TCWR.

Shallow water methane-derived authigenic carbonate mounds at the Codling Fault Zone, western Irish Sea

Methane-derived authigenic carbonate (MDAC) mound features at the Codling Fault Zone (CFZ), located in shallow waters (50-120m) of the western Irish Sea were investigated and provide a comparison to deep sea MDAC settings. Carbonates consisted of aragonite as the major mineral phase, with δ¹³C depletion to -50‰ and δ¹⁸O enrichment to~2‰. These isotope signatures, together with the co-precipitation of framboidal pyrite confirm that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an important process mediating methane release to the water column and the atmosphere in this region. ¹⁸O-enrichment could be a result of MDAC precipitation with seawater in colder than present day conditions, or precipitation with ¹⁸O-enriched water transported from deep petroleum sources. The ¹³C depletion of bulk carbonate and sampled gas (-70‰) suggests a biogenic source, but significant mixing of thermogenic gas and depletion of the original isotope signature cannot be ruled out. Active seepage was recorded from one mound and together with extensive areas of reduced sediment, confirms that seepage is ongoing. The mounds appear to be composed of stacked pavements that are largely covered by sand and extensively eroded. The CFZ mounds are colonized by abundant Sabellaria polychaetes and possible Nemertesia hydroids, which benefit indirectly from available hard substrate. In contrast to deep sea MDAC settings where seep-related macrofauna are commonly reported, seep-specialist fauna appear to be lacking at the CFZ. In addition, unlike MDAC in deep waters where organic carbon input from photosynthesis is limited, lipid biomarkers and isotope signatures related to marine planktonic production (e.g. sterols, alkanols) were most abundant. Evidence for microbes involved in AOM was limited from samples taken; possibly due to this dilution effect from organic matter derived from the photic zone, and will require further investigation. 

The synapsin cycle:a view from the synaptic endocytic zone

Although the synapsin phosphoproteins were discovered more than 30 years ago and are known to play important roles in neurotransmitter release and synaptogenesis, a complete picture of their functions within the nerve terminal is lacking. It has been shown that these proteins play an important role in the clustering of synaptic vesicles (SVs) at active zones and function as modulators of synaptic strength by acting at both pre- and postdocking levels. Recent studies have demonstrated that synapsins migrate to the endocytic zone of central synapses during neurotransmitter release, which suggests that there are additional functions for these proteins in SV recycling.

Intersectin is a negative regulator of dynamin recruitment to the synaptic endocytic zone in the central synapse

Intersectin is a multidomain dynamin-binding protein implicated in numerous functions in the nervous system, including synapse formation and endocytosis. Here, we demonstrate that during neurotransmitter release in the central synapse, intersectin, like its binding partner dynamin, is redistributed from the synaptic vesicle pool to the periactive zone. Acute perturbation of the intersectin-dynamin interaction by microinjection of either intersectin antibodies or Src homology 3 (SH3) domains inhibited endocytosis at the fission step. Although the morphological effects induced by the different reagents were similar, antibody injections resulted in a dramatic increase in dynamin immunoreactivity around coated pits and at constricted necks, whereas synapses microinjected with the GST (glutathione S-transferase)-SH3C domain displayed reduced amounts of dynamin in the neck region. Our data suggest that intersectin controls the amount of dynamin released from the synaptic vesicle cluster to the periactive zone and that it may regulate fission of clathrin-coated intermediates.