A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Comparisons between different polychemotherapy regimens for early breast cancer: meta-analyses of long-term outcome among 100,000 women in 123 randomised trials

Background Moderate di?erences in e?cacy between adjuvant chemotherapy regimens for breast cancer are plausible, and could a? ect treatment choices. We sought any such di?erences.

Methods We undertook individual-patient-data meta-analyses of the randomised trials comparing: any taxane-plusanthracycline-based regimen versus the same, or more, non-taxane chemotherapy (n=44 000); one anthracyclinebased regimen versus another (n=7000) or versus cyclo phosphamide, methotrexate, and ?uorouracil (CMF; n=18 000); and polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy (n=32 000). The scheduled dosages of these three drugs and of the anthracyclines doxorubicin (A) and epirubicin (E) were used to de? ne standard CMF, standard 4AC, and CAF and CEF. Log-rank breast cancer mortality rate ratios (RRs) are reported.

Findings In trials adding four separate cycles of a taxane to a ?xed anthracycline-based control regimen, extending treatment duration, breast cancer mortality was reduced (RR 0·86, SE 0·04, two-sided signi?cance [2p]=0·0005). In trials with four such extra cycles of a taxane counterbalanced in controls by extra cycles of other cytotoxic drugs, roughly doubling non-taxane dosage, there was no signi?cant di?erence (RR 0·94, SE 0·06, 2p=0·33). Trials with CMF-treated controls showed that standard 4AC and standard CMF were equivalent (RR 0·98, SE 0·05, 2p=0·67), but that anthracycline-based regimens with substantially higher cumulative dosage than standard 4AC (eg, CAF or CEF) were superior to standard CMF (RR 0·78, SE 0·06, 2p=0·0004). Trials versus no chemotherapy also suggested greater mortality reductions with CAF (RR 0·64, SE 0·09, 2p<0·0001) than with standard 4AC (RR 0·78, SE 0·09, 2p=0·01) or
standard CMF (RR 0·76, SE 0·05, 2p<0·0001). In all meta-analyses involving taxane-based or anthracycline-based regimens, proportional risk reductions were little a? ected by age, nodal status, tumour diameter or di?erentiation (moderate or poor; few were well di?erentiated), oestrogen receptor status, or tamoxifen use. Hence, largely independently of age (up to at least 70 years) or the tumour characteristics currently available to us for the patients selected to be in these trials, some taxane-plus-anthracycline-based or higher-cumulative-dosage anthracycline-based regimens (not requiring stem cells) reduced breast cancer mortality by, on average, about one-third. 10-year overall mortality di?erences paralleled breast cancer mortality di?erences, despite taxane, anthracycline, and other toxicities.

Interpretation 10-year gains from a one-third breast cancer mortality reduction depend on absolute risks without chemotherapy (which, for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease, are the risks remaining with appropriate endocrine therapy). Low absolute risk implies low absolute bene?t, but information was lacking about tumour gene expression markers or quantitative immunohistochemistry that might help to predict risk, chemosensitivity, or both.

Prenatal and early sucking influences on dietary preference in newborn, weaning, and young adult cats

Early experiences are of potential importance in shaping long-term behavior. This study examined the relative influence of prenatal and/or early postnatal experience of chemosensory stimuli on subsequent olfactory and dietary preferences of cats as newborns, at 9-10 weeks, and at 6 months. Cats were exposed to vanillin or 4-ethylguaiacol via their mother's diet either prenatally, postnatally, perinatally (prenatal and postnatal), or experienced no exposure to the stimuli (control). Newborns were given a two-choice olfactory test between the familiar "odor" and no odor; 9-10 week olds were tested for their preference between two food treats, one flavored with the familiar stimulus and the other unflavored; at 6 months, cats were given a choice of two bowls of food, one flavored with the familiar stimulus and the other unflavored. At all ages, cats preferred the familiar, and avoided the unfamiliar, stimulus. Perinatal exposure exerted the strongest influence on preference. Prenatal exposure influenced preference at all ages and postnatal exposure exerted a stronger effect as the cat aged. We conclude that long-term chemosensory and dietary preferences of cats are influenced by prenatal and early (nursing) postnatal experience, supporting a natural and biologically relevant mechanism for the safe transmission of diet from mother to young. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

A modified SILCS contraceptive diaphragm for long-term controlled release of the HIV microbicide dapivirine

Background: There is considerable interest in developing new multipurpose prevention technologies to address women's reproductive health needs. This study describes an innovative barrier contraceptive device--based on the SILCS diaphragm--that also provides long-term controlled release of the lead candidate anti-HIV microbicide dapivirine.

Study design: Diaphragm devices comprising various dapivirine-loaded polymer spring cores overmolded with a nonmedicated silicone elastomer sheath were fabricated by injection molding processes. In vitro release testing, thermal analysis and mechanical characterization were performed on the devices.

Results: A diaphragm device containing a polyoxymethylene spring core loaded with 10% w/w dapivirine provided continuous and controlled release of dapivirine over a 6-month period, with a mean in vitro daily release rate of 174 mcg/day. The mechanical properties of the new diaphragm were closely matched to the SILCS diaphragm.

Conclusions: The study demonstrates proof of concept for a dapivirine-releasing diaphragm with daily release quantities potentially capable of preventing HIV transmission. In discontinuous clinical use, release of dapivirine may be readily extended over 1 or more years. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Evaluation of an Interdisciplinary Pain Protocol in Long Term Care

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of (1) dissemination strategies to improve clinical practice behaviors (eg, frequency and documentation of pain assessments, use of pain medication) among health care team members, and (2) the implementation of the pain protocol in reducing pain in long term care (LTC) residents. Design: A controlled before-after design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the pain protocol, whereas qualitative interviews and focus groups were used to obtain additional context-driven data. Setting: Four LTC facilities in southern Ontario, Canada; 2 for the intervention group and 2 for the control group. Participants: Data were collected from 200 LTC residents; 99 for the intervention and 101 for the control group. Intervention: Implementation of a pain protocol using a multifaceted approach, including a site working group or Pain Team, pain education and skills training, and other quality improvement activities. Measurements: Resident pain was measured using 3 assessment tools: the Pain Assessment Checklist for Seniors with Limited Ability to Communicate, the Pain Assessment in the Communicatively Impaired Elderly, and the Present Pain Intensity Scale. Clinical practice behaviors were measured using a number of process indicators; for example, use of pain assessment tools, documentation about pain management, and use of pain medications. A semistructured interview guide was used to collect qualitative data via focus groups and interviews. Results: Pain increased significantly more for the control group than the intervention group over the 1-year intervention period. There were significantly more positive changes over the intervention period in the intervention group compared with the control group for the following indicators: the use of a standardized pain assessment tool and completed admission/initial pain assessment. Qualitative findings highlight the importance of reminding staff to think about pain as a priority in caring for residents and to be mindful of it during daily activities. Using onsite champions, in this case advanced practice nurses and a Pain Team, were key to successfully implementing the pain protocol. Conclusions: These study findings indicate that the implementation of a pain protocol intervention improved the way pain was managed and provided pain relief for LTC residents.

Long-term outcome after neonatal intraparenchymal echodensities with porencephaly

To compare long-term neurodevelopmental and functional outcomes of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) survivors with neonatal intraparenchymal echodensities (IPE) with porencephaly on cranial ultrasonography with matched controls. To compare the developmental trajectories of these infants over the childhood years with those of matched controls.

Long-term consequences of pain in human neonates

The low tactile threshold in preterm infants when they are in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), while their physiological systems are unstable and immature, potentially renders them more vulnerable to the effects of repeated invasive procedures. There is a small but growing literature on pain and tactile responsivity following procedural pain in the NICU, or early surgery. Long-term effects of repeated pain in the neonatal period on neurodevelopment await further research. However, there are multiple sources of stress in the NICU, which contribute to inducing high overall 'allostatic load', therefore determining specific effects of neonatal pain in human infants is challenging.

Early pain in preterm infants. A model of long-term effects

There are multiple lines of evidence suggesting that in vulnerable prematurely born infants, repeated and prolonged pain exposure may affect the subsequent development of pain systems, as well as potentially contribute to alterations in long-term development and behavior. Multiple factors cumulatively contribute to altered developmental trajectories in such infants. These include characteristics of the developing organism (low tactile threshold, sensitization, rapid brain development), characteristics intrinsic to the infant (gestation, illness severity), characteristics of the experience in the neonatal intensive care unit (pain exposure and cumulative stress), and characteristics of the caregivers within their family and social context. This article provides a model for examining long-term effects of pain in the newborn period embedded in a developmental context framework.

Long-term effects of pain in infants

Pain and stress have been shown to induce significant physiological and behavioral reactions in newborn infants, even in those born prematurely. Infants who are born prematurely or seriously ill are commonly exposed to multiple painful and stressful events as part of their prolonged hospitalizations and required medical procedures. There is now evidence that these early events not only induce acute changes, but that permanent structural and functional changes may also result. This article reviews the growing body of evidence of likely long-term effects of early pain and stress on the human infant. It is hoped that a better understanding of this literature will promote more responsive and sensitive management of infants and young children during their encounters with the medical community and will ultimately facilitate the healthy growth and development of all children.

Quality of care for residents dying in Ontario long-term care facilities:Findings from a survey of directors of care

The purpose of this study was to collect information on the practice of end-of-life (EOL) care in long-term care (LTC) facilities in the Province of Ontario, Canada. A cross-sectional survey of directors of care in all licensed LTC facilities in the province was conducted between September 2003 and April 2004. Directors of care from 426 (76% response rate) facilities completed the postal survey questionnaire. The survey results identified communication problems between service providers and families, inadequate staffing levels to provide quality care to dying residents, and the need for training to improve staff skills in providing EOL care. Directors of care endorsed the use of a number of strategies that would improve the care of dying residents. Logistic regression analysis identified the eight most important items predictive of facility staff having the ability to provide quality EOL care. The findings contribute to the current discussion on policies for meeting the care needs of residents in LTC facilities until life's end. © 2006 Centre for Bioethics, IRCM.

Identifying research priorities in long term care homes

Concerns about the quality of care in long term care (LTC) homes range from inadequate daily care to understaffing and insufficient funding. LTC decision makers are challenged to keep up with the changing demographics of residents admitted to LTC who have increasingly complex care needs. Decisions regarding LTC policies and procedures need to be informed by research that identifies the most effective and efficient care practices.This study solicited feedback from LTC decision makers in Ontario, Canada, regarding research priorities to guide improvement in the quality of care in LTC homes. Representatives from 134 LTC homes responded (53.6% response rate). Nine thematic areas of research were identified: delivery of care; staffing; organization and structure of homes; funding; indicators, standards, policies, and procedures; managing difficult behaviors; education; safety; and infectious disease control. It is anticipated that these themes will steer research down a path that is responsive to the information needs of practitioners in LTC homes. © 2012 American Medical Directors Association, Inc.

Moving to evidence-based practice in long-term care:the role of a Best Practise Resource Centre in two long-term care settings.

In this article, the authors provide an overview on the development of a Long-Term Care Best Practise Resource Centre. The results of both a feasibility study and the outcomes of a 1-year demonstration project are presented. The demonstration project involved a hospital as the information service provider and two demonstration sites, a home care service agency and a nursing home that used the services of the Centre. The goals of the Centre were threefold: provide access to literature for staff in long-term care (LTC) settings; improve the information management skills of health care providers; and support research and the integration of best practices in LTC organizations. The results of the pilot study contributed to the development of a collaborative information access system for LTC clinicians and managers that provides timely, up-to-date information contributing to improving the quality of care for adults receiving LTC. Based on this demonstration project, strategies for successful innovation in LTC are identified.