Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

A web-based tool to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

Occupational hygiene practitioners typically assess the risk posed by occupational exposure by comparing exposure measurements to regulatory occupational exposure limits (OELs). In most jurisdictions, OELs are only available for exposure by the inhalation pathway. Skin notations are used to indicate substances for which dermal exposure may lead to health effects. However, these notations are either present or absent and provide no indication of acceptable levels of exposure. Furthermore, the methodology and framework for assigning skin notation differ widely across jurisdictions resulting in inconsistencies in the substances that carry notations. The UPERCUT tool was developed in response to these limitations. It helps occupational health stakeholders to assess the hazard associated with dermal exposure to chemicals. UPERCUT integrates dermal quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and toxicological data to provide users with a skin hazard index called the dermal hazard ratio (DHR) for the substance and scenario of interest. The DHR is the ratio between the estimated 'received' dose and the 'acceptable' dose. The 'received' dose is estimated using physico-chemical data and information on the exposure scenario provided by the user (body parts exposure and exposure duration), and the 'acceptable' dose is estimated using inhalation OELs and toxicological data. The uncertainty surrounding the DHR is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Additional information on the selected substances includes intrinsic skin permeation potential of the substance and the existence of skin notations. UPERCUT is the only available tool that estimates the absorbed dose and compares this to an acceptable dose. In the absence of dermal OELs it provides a systematic and simple approach for screening dermal exposure scenarios for 1686 substances.

Headspace needle-trap analysis of priority volatile organic compounds from aqueous samples: application to the analysis of natural and waste waters

Combining headspace (HS) sampling with a needle-trap device (NTD) to determine priority volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in water samples results in improved sensitivity and efficiency when compared to conventional static HS sampling. A 22 gauge stainless steel, 51-mm needle packed with Tenax TA and Carboxen 1000 particles is used as the NTD. Three different HS-NTD sampling methodologies are evaluated and all give limits of detection for the target VOCs in the ng L−1 range. Active (purge-and-trap) HS-NTD sampling is found to give the best sensitivity but requires exhaustive control of the sampling conditions. The use of the NTD to collect the headspace gas sample results in a combined adsorption/desorption mechanism. The testing of different temperatures for the HS thermostating reveals a greater desorption effect when the sample is allowed to diffuse, whether passively or actively, through the sorbent particles. The limits of detection obtained in the simplest sampling methodology, static HS-NTD (5 mL aqueous sample in 20 mL HS vials, thermostating at 50 °C for 30 min with agitation), are sufficiently low as to permit its application to the analysis of 18 priority VOCs in natural and waste waters. In all cases compounds were detected below regulated levels

The environmental effects of changing speed limits: a quantile regression approach

Two speed management policies were implemented in the metropolitan area of Barcelona aimed at reducing air pollution concentration levels. In 2008, the maximum speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h and, in 2009, a variable speed system was introduced on some metropolitan motorways. This paper evaluates whether such policies have been successful in promoting cleaner air, not only in terms of mean pollutant levels but also during high and low pollution episodes. We use a quantile regression approach for fixed effect panel data. We find that the variable speed system improves air quality with regard to the two pollutants considered here, being most effective when nitrogen oxide levels are not too low and when particulate matter concentrations are below extremely high levels. However, reducing the maximum speed limit from 120/100 km/h to 80 km/h has no effect – or even a slightly increasing effect –on the two pollutants, depending on the pollution scenario. Length: 32 pages

Strategies to evaluate the impact of rectal volume on prostate motion during three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer

Abstract Objective: To evaluate the rectal volume influence on prostate motion during three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) for prostate cancer. Materials and Methods: Fifty-one patients with prostate cancer underwent a series of three computed tomography scans including an initial planning scan and two subsequent scans during 3D-CRT. The organs of interest were outlined. The prostate contour was compared with the initial CT images considering the anterior, posterior, superior, inferior and lateral edges of the organ. Variations in the anterior limits and volume of the rectum were assessed and correlated with prostate motion in the anteroposterior direction. Results: The maximum range of prostate motion was observed in the superoinferior direction, followed by the anteroposterior direction. A significant correlation was observed between prostate motion and rectal volume variation ( p = 0.037). A baseline rectal volume superior to 70 cm3 had a significant influence on the prostate motion in the anteroposterior direction ( p = 0.045). Conclusion: The present study showed a significant interfraction motion of the prostate during 3D-CRT with greatest variations in the superoinferior and anteroposterior directions, and that a large rectal volume influences the prostate motion with a cutoff value of 70 cm3. Therefore, the treatment of patients with a rectal volume > 70 cm3 should be re-planned with appropriate rectal preparation.

Social Preferences and Transport Policy: The case of US speed limits

This article, in reviewing the longrunning US debate on speed limits, illustrates how a different valuation of the trade-off between private mobility needs and safety concerns can shape transport policies. It is argued that the regulatory decentralization debate, together with the speed limit in force in each state, obey the social preferences and valuation given to this tradeoff. Such a view is consistent with evidence that higher speed limits are to be found in states with greater private mobility needs, even though their fatality rates might be among the highest in the country. By contrast, lower speed limits and supporters of a low national speed limit are to be found in states that show a greater concern for safety outcomes and which are less dependent on private mobility. By reviewing these events and examining the role played by the main actors and analyzing their motivations, the article identifies important lessons for similar future discussions on transport policy.

Capillary thermal desorption unit for near real-time analysis of VOCs at sub-trace levels. Application to the analysis of environmental air contamination and breath samples

A capillary microtrap thermal desorption module is developed for near real-time analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at sub-ppbv levels in air samples. The device allows the direct injection of the thermally desorbed VOCs into a chromatographic column. It does not use a second cryotrap to focalize the adsorbed compounds before entering the separation column so reducing the formation of artifacts. The connection of the microtrap to a GC–MS allows the quantitative determination of VOCs in less than 40 min with detection limits of between 5 and 10 pptv (25 °C and 760 mmHg), which correspond to 19–43 ng m−3, using sampling volumes of 775 cm3. The microtrap is applied to the analysis of environmental air contamination in different laboratories of our faculty. The results obtained indicate that most volatile compounds are easily diffused through the air and that they also may contaminate the surrounding areas when the habitual safety precautions (e.g., working under fume hoods) are used during the manipulation of solvents. The application of the microtrap to the analysis of VOCs in breath samples suggest that 2,5-dimethylfuran may be a strong indicator of a person's smoking status

Surgical treatment of hamstring injuries and disorders – the clinical spectrum from chronic tendinopathy to complete rupture

Hamstring muscle injuries and tendon disorders are common, especially in sports. They can be severe and difficult to treat, often resulting in impaired athletic performance and long rehabilitation times. Previous studies considering treatment of these problems are scarce. The current study was designed to investigate the effect of surgery on different types of hamstring muscle injuries and on proximal hamstring tendinopathy. In addition, we wanted to study the typical histopathological findings relating to proximal hamstring tendinopathy. In the study of complete (all three muscles torn) proximal hamstring avulsions (41 patients), our results showed that early operative treatment gives significantly better results than late surgery, and is therefore recommended. Despite this, considerable improvement of symptoms could also be achieved in chronic cases. In the study of partial (one or two muscles torn) proximal hamstring tears (47 patients), we observed that these injuries can cause significant functional deficit and impaired performance in athletes. The main finding was that after surgical repair most of the patients were able to return to their pre-injury level of sports. In the study of distal hamstring tears (18 patients), the results showed that surgical treatment had a good effect in the majority of these cases. In proximal hamstring tendinopathy, the main problem is pain which limits sports. In this study (90 patients), we found that after unsuccessful conservative treatment, surgery was a good treatment option resulting in full return to sports in most cases. In tendinopathic hamstring tendons, the morphological changes of tendinosis were largely identical to those previously described in other common (e.g. Achilles and patellar) tendinopathies. In chronic proximal hamstring avulsions, and also in reoperations, a large defect between distally retracted tendons and the ischial tuberosity may occasionally prevent anatomic reinsertion. We have described a reconstruction method using fascia lata autograft augmentation to be used in these most challenging repairs. This technique was utilized in the treatment of five patients, with encouraging results.

Empowering local democracy in Catalonia: tools and policy domains to implement a top-down solution

This article is the result of an ongoing research into a variety of features of Spanish local government. It aims, in particular, at providing a profile of the tools implemented by local authorities to improve local democracy in Catalonia. The main hypothesis of the work is that, even though the Spanish local model is constrained by a shared and unique set of legal regulations, local institutions in Catalonia have developed their own model of local participation. And the range of instruments like these is still now increasing. More specifically, the scope of this research is twofold. On the one hand, different types of instruments for public deliberation in the Catalan local administration system are identified and presented, based on the place they take in the policy cycle. On the other hand, we focus on policy domains and the quality of the decision-making processes. Researching the stability of the participation tools or whether local democracy prefers more 'ad hoc' processes allows us to analyze the boundaries/limits of local democracy in Catalonia. The main idea underlying this paper is that, despite the existence of a single legal model regulating municipalities in Catalonia, local authorities tend to use their legally granted selfmanagement capacities to design their own instruments which end up presenting perceivable distinct features, stressing democracy in different policy domains, and in diverse policy cycles. Therefore, this paper is intended to identify such models and to provide factors (variables) so that an explanatory model can be built.

Analytical investigation of the atmospheric radiation limits in semigray atmospheres in radiative equilibrium

We model the wavelength-dependent absorption of atmospheric gases by assuming constant mass absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Such a semigray atmosphere is analytically solved by a discrete ordinate method. The general solution is analyzed for a water vapor saturated atmosphere that also contains a carbon dioxide-like absorbing gas in the infrared. A multiple stable equilibrium with a relative upper limit in the outgoing long-wave radiation is found. Differing from previous radiative–convective models, we find that the amount of carbon dioxide strongly modifies the value of this relative upper limit. This result is also obtained in a gray (i.e., equal absorption of radiation at all infrared wavelengths) water vapor saturated atmosphere. The destabilizing effect of carbon dioxide implies that massive carbon dioxide atmospheres are more likely to reach a runaway greenhouse state than thin carbon dioxide ones

Approximate solution to the speed of spreading viruses

Recently, it has been shown that the speed of virus infections can be explained by time-delayed reactiondiffusion [J. Fort and V. Me´ndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 178101 (2002)], but no analytical solutions were found. Here we derive formulas for the front speed, valid in appropriate limits. We also integrate numerically the evolution equations of the system. There is good agreement with both numerical and experimental speeds

Development of a flotation method for preconcentration-separation of trace amounts of some metal ions in plant tissues prior to their FAAS determinations

An efficient flotation method based on the combination of flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and separation and preconcentration step for determination of Cr3+, Cu 2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Zn2+, Cd 2+, Fe3+ and Pb2+ ions in various real samples by the possibility of applying bis(2-hydroxyacetophenone)-1,4-butanediimine (BHABDI) as a new collector was studied. The influence of pH, amount of BHABDI as collector, sample matrix, type and amount of eluting agent, type and amount of surfactant as floating agent, ionic strength and air flow rates i.e. variables affecting the efficiency of the extraction system was evaluated. It is ascertained that metal ions such as iron can be separated simultaneously from matrix in the presence of 0.012 mM ligand, 0.025% (w/v) of CTAB to a test sample of 750 mL at pH 6.5. These ions can be eluted quantitatively with 6 mL of 1.0 mol L-1 HNO3 in methanol which lead to the enrichment factor of 125. The detection limits for analyte ions were in the range of 1.3-2.4 ng mL-1. The method has been successfully applied for determination of trace amounts of ions in various real samples.

Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous separation/preconcentration of nickel, cobalt and copper prior to determination by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous extraction of trace amounts of nickel, cobalt and copper followed by their determination with electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry was developed. 300 µL of acetone and 1-undecanol was injected into an aqueous sample containing diethyldithiocarbamate complexes of metal ions. For a sample volume of 10 mL, enrichment factors of 277, 270 and 300 and detection limits of 1.2, 1.1 and 1 ng L-1 for nickel, cobalt and copper were obtained, respectively. The method was applied to the extraction and determination of these metals in different water samples.

Ligandless cloud point extraction of trace amounts of palladium and rhodium in road dust samples using Span 80 prior to their determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry

In this study, a procedure is developed for cloud point extraction of Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions in aqueous solution using Span 80 (non-ionic surfactant) prior to their determination by flame atomic absorption spectroscopy. This method is based on the extraction of Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions at a pH of 10 using Span 80 with no chelating agent. We investigated the effect of various parameters on the recovery of the analyte ions, including pH, equilibration temperature and time, concentration of Span 80, and ionic strength. Under the best experimental conditions, the limits of detection based on 3Sb for Pd(II) and Rh(III) ions were 1.3 and 1.2 ng mL-1, respectively. Seven replicate determinations of a mixture of 0.5 µg mL-1 palladium and rhodium ions gave a mean absorbance of 0.058 and 0.053 with relative standard deviations of 1.8 and 1.6%, respectively. The developed method was successfully applied to the extraction and determination of the palladium and rhodium ions in road dust and standard samples and satisfactory results were obtained.

LC-MS/MS method applied to preclinical pharmacokinetic investigation of olanzapine-loaded lipid-core nanocapsules

In spite of different methods reported in the literature to determine olanzapine in biological fluids, all of them used high volumes of plasma. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to develop an LC-MS/MS method using small plasma volume (0.1 mL) to apply in a preclinical pharmacokinetic investigation. The method was linear over the concentration ranges of 10 - 1000 ng mL-1. Extraction recoveries, stability, and validation parameters were evaluated. Results were within the acceptable limits of international guidelines. A significant decrease in clearance led to a significant 2.26-times increase in AUC0 - 6h of olanzapine-loaded lipid-core nanocapsules compared with free-olanzapine.