Evidence for daily and weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity of physical activity in a large cohort of individuals from five different countries.

Background Biological rhythmicity has been extensively studied in animals for many decades. Although temporal patterns of physical activity have been identified in humans, no large-scale, multi-national study has been published, and no comparison has been attempted of the ubiquity of activity rhythms at different time scales (such as daily, weekly, monthly, and annual). Methods Using individually worn actigraphy devices, physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five different countries (adults of African descent from Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, and the United States) was measured for seven consecutive days at different times of the year. Results Analysis for rhythmic patterns identified daily rhythmicity of physical activity in all five of the represented nationalities. Weekly rhythmicity was found in some, but not all, of the nationalities. No significant evidence of lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity was found in any of the groups. Conclusions These findings extend previous small-scale observations of daily rhythmicity to a large cohort of individuals from around the world. The findings also confirm the existence of modest weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity in human activity. These differences in rhythm strength have implications for the management of health hazards of rhythm misalignment. Key Messages Analysis of the pattern of physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five countries revealed strong daily rhythmicity in all five countries, moderate weekly rhythmicity in some countries, and no lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity in any of the countries.

GENETIC ARCHITECTURE, EVOLUTION AND MAINTENANCE OF A COLOR CLINE AT A CONTINENTAL SCALE

On a geological time scale the conditions on earth are very variable and biological patterns (for example the distributions of species) are very dynamic. Understanding large scale patterns of variation observed today thus requires a deep understanding of the historical factors that drove their evolution. In this thesis, we reevaluated the evolution and maintenance of a continental color cline observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) using population genetic tools. The colour cline spans from south-est Europe where most individual have pure white underparts to north and east Europe where most individuals have rufous-brown underparts. Our results globally showed that the old scenario, stipulating that the color cline evolved by secondary contact of two color morphs (white and rufous) that evolved in allopatry during the last ice age has to be revised. We collected samples of about 700 barn owls from the Western Palearctic to establish the first population genetic data set for this species. Individuals were genotyped at 22 microsatellites markers, at one mitochondrial gene, and at a candidate color gene. The color of each individuals was assessed and their sex determined by molecular methods. We first showed that the genetic variation in Western Europe is very limited compared to the heritable color variation. We found no evidences of different glacial lineages, and showed that selection must be involved in the maintenance of the color cline (chapter 1). Using computer simulations, we demonstrated that the post-glacial colonization of Europe occurred from the Iberian Peninsula and that the color cline could not have evolved by neutral demographic processes during this colonization (chapter 2). Finally we reevaluated the whole history of the establishment of the Western Palearctic variation of the barn owl (chapter 3): This study showed that all Western European barn owls descend from white barn owls phenotypes from the Middle East that colonized the Iberian Peninsula via North-Africa. Following the end of the last ice age (20'000 years ago), these white barn owls colonized Western Europe and under selection a novel rufous phenotype evolved (during or after the colonization). An important part of the color variation could be explained by a single mutation in the melanocortin-1-receptor (MC1R) gene that appeared during or after the colonization. The colonization of Europe reached until Greece, where the rufous birds encountered white ones (which reached Greece from the Middle East over the Bosporus) in a secondary contact zone. Our analyses show that white and rufous barn owls in Greece interbreed only to a limited extent. This suggests that barn owls are at the verge of becoming two species in Greece and demonstrates that European barn owls represent an incipient ring species around the Mediterranean. The revisited history of the establishment of the European barn owl color cline makes this model system remarkable for several aspects. It is a very clear example of strong local adaptation that can be achieved despite high gene flow (strong color and MC1R differentiation despite almost no neutral genetic differentiation). It also offers a wonderful model system to study the interactions between colonization processes and selection processes which have, for now, been remarkably understudied despite their potentially ubiquitous importance. Finally it represents a very interesting case in the speciation continuum and appeals for further studying the amount of gene flow that occurs between the color morphs in Greece. -- Sur l'échelle des temps géologiques, les conditions sur terre sont très variables et les patrons biologiques (telle que la distribution des espèces) sont très dynamiques. Si l'on veut comprendre des patrons que l'on peut observer à large échelle aujourd'hui, il est nécessaire de d'abord comprendre les facteurs historiques qui ont gouverné leur établissement. Dans cette thèse, nous allons réévaluer, grâce à des outils modernes de génétique des populations, l'évolution et la maintenance d'un cline de couleur continental observé chez l'effraie des clochers européenne (Tyto alba). Globalement, nos résultats montrent que le scenario accepté jusqu'à maintenant, qui stipule que le cline de couleur a évolué à partir du contact secondaire de deux morphes de couleur (blanches et rousses) ayant évolué en allopatrie durant les dernières glaciations, est à revoir. Afin de constituer le premier jeu de données de génétique des populations pour cette espèce, nous avons récolté des échantillons d'environ 700 effraies de l'ouest Paléarctique. Nous avons génotypé tous les individus à 22 loci microsatellites, sur un gène mitochondrial et sur un autre gène participant au déterminisme de la couleur. Nous avons aussi mesuré la couleur de tous les individus et déterminé leur sexe génétiquement. Nous avons tout d'abord pu montrer que la variation génétique neutre est négligeable en comparaison avec la variation héritable de couleur, qu'il n'existe qu'une seule lignée européenne et que de la sélection doit être impliquée dans le maintien du cline de couleur (chapitre 1). Grâce à des simulations informatiques, nous avons démontré que l'ensemble de l'Europe de l'ouest a été recolonisé depuis la Péninsule Ibérique après les dernières glaciations et que le cline de couleur ne peut pas avoir évolué par des processus neutre durant cette colonisation (chapitre 2). Finalement, nous avons réévalué l'ensemble de l'histoire postglaciaire de l'espèce dans l'ouest Paléarctique (chapitre 3): l'ensemble des effraies du Paléarctique descendent d'effraie claire du Moyen-Orient qui ont colonisé la péninsule ibérique en passant par l'Afrique du nord. Après la fin de la dernière glaciation (il y a 20'000 ans), ces effraies claires ont colonisé l'Europe de l'ouest et ont évolués par sélection le phénotype roux (durant ou après la colonisation). Une part importante de la variation de couleur peut être expliquée par une mutation sur le gène MC1R qui est apparue durant ou juste après la colonisation. Cette vague de colonisation s'est poursuivie jusqu'en Grèce où ces effraies rousses ont rencontré dans une zone de contact secondaire des effraies claires (qui sont remontées en Grèce depuis le Moyen-Orient via le Bosphore). Nos analyses montrent que le flux de gènes entre effraies blanches et rousses est limité en Grèce, ce qui suggère qu'elles sont en passe de former deux espèces et ce qui montre que les effraies constituent un exemple naissant de spéciation en anneaux autour de la Méditerranée. L'histoire revisitée des effraies des clochers de l'ouest Paléarctique en fait un système modèle remarquable pour plusieurs aspects. C'est un exemple très claire de forte adaptation locale maintenue malgré un fort flux de gènes (différenciation forte de couleur et sur le gène MC1R malgré presque aucune structure neutre). Il offre également un très bon système pour étudier l'interaction entre colonisation et sélection, un thème ayant été remarquablement peu étudié malgré son importance. Et il offre finalement un cas très intéressant dans le « continuum de spéciation » et il serait très intéressant d'étudier plus en détail l'importance du flux de gènes entre les morphes de couleur en Grèce.

A study of combustion phenomena in circulating fluidized beds by developing and applying experimental and modelling methods for laboratory-scale reactors

The results shown in this thesis are based on selected publications of the 2000s decade. The work was carried out in several national and EC funded public research projects and in close cooperation with industrial partners. The main objective of the thesis was to study and quantify the most important phenomena of circulating fluidized bed combustors by developing and applying proper experimental and modelling methods using laboratory scale equipments. An understanding of the phenomena plays an essential role in the development of combustion and emission performance, and the availability and controls of CFB boilers. Experimental procedures to study fuel combustion behaviour under CFB conditions are presented in the thesis. Steady state and dynamic measurements under well controlled conditions were carried out to produce the data needed for the development of high efficiency, utility scale CFB technology. The importance of combustion control and furnace dynamics is emphasized when CFB boilers are scaled up with a once through steam cycle. Qualitative information on fuel combustion characteristics was obtained directly by comparing flue gas oxygen responses during the impulse change experiments with fuel feed. A one-dimensional, time dependent model was developed to analyse the measurement data Emission formation was studied combined with fuel combustion behaviour. Correlations were developed for NO, N2O, CO and char loading, as a function of temperature and oxygen concentration in the bed area. An online method to characterize char loading under CFB conditions was developed and validated with the pilot scale CFB tests. Finally, a new method to control air and fuel feeds in CFB combustion was introduced. The method is based on models and an analysis of the fluctuation of the flue gas oxygen concentration. The effect of high oxygen concentrations on fuel combustion behaviour was also studied to evaluate the potential of CFB boilers to apply oxygenfiring technology to CCS. In future studies, it will be necessary to go through the whole scale up chain from laboratory phenomena devices through pilot scale test rigs to large scale, commercial boilers in order to validate the applicability and scalability of the, results. This thesis shows the chain between the laboratory scale phenomena test rig (bench scale) and the CFB process test rig (pilot). CFB technology has been scaled up successfully from an industrial scale to a utility scale during the last decade. The work shown in the thesis, for its part, has supported the development by producing new detailed information on combustion under CFB conditions.

Turbulent shallow-water model for orographic subgrid-scale perturbations

A parallel pseudo-spectral method for the simulation in distributed memory computers of the shallow-water equations in primitive form was developed and used on the study of turbulent shallow-waters LES models for orographic subgrid-scale perturbations. The main characteristics of the code are: momentum equations integrated in time using an accurate pseudo-spectral technique; Eulerian treatment of advective terms; and parallelization of the code based on a domain decomposition technique. The parallel pseudo-spectral code is efficient on various architectures. It gives high performance onvector computers and good speedup on distributed memory systems. The code is being used for the study of the interaction mechanisms in shallow-water ows with regular as well as random orography with a prescribed spectrum of elevations. Simulations show the evolution of small scale vortical motions from the interaction of the large scale flow and the small-scale orographic perturbations. These interactions transfer energy from the large-scale motions to the small (usually unresolved) scales. The possibility of including the parametrization of this effects in turbulent LES subgrid-stress models for the shallow-water equations is addressed.

Horizontal Slug Flow in a Large-Size Pipeline: Experimentation and Modeling

The knowledge of the slug flow characteristics is very important when designing pipelines and process equipment. When the intermittences typical in slug flow occurs, the fluctuations of the flow variables bring additional concern to the designer. Focusing on this subject the present work discloses the experimental data on slug flow characteristics occurring in a large-size, large-scale facility. The results were compared with data provided by mechanistic slug flow models in order to verify their reliability when modelling actual flow conditions. Experiments were done with natural gas and oil or water as the liquid phase. To compute the frequency and velocity of the slug cell and to calculate the length of the elongated bubble and liquid slug one used two pressure transducers measuring the pressure drop across the pipe diameter at different axial locations. A third pressure transducer measured the pressure drop between two axial location 200 m apart. The experimental data were compared with results of Camargo's1 algorithm (1991, 1993), which uses the basics of Dukler & Hubbard's (1975) slug flow model, and those calculated by the transient two-phase flow simulator OLGA.

Modeling of Liquid-Solid Flow in Industrial Scale

In the present work, liquid-solid flow in industrial scale is modeled using the commercial software of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) ANSYS Fluent 14.5. In literature, there are few studies on liquid-solid flow in industrial scale, but any information about the particular case with modified geometry cannot be found. The aim of this thesis is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multiphase models, when a large-scale application is studied within liquid-solid flow, including the boundary-layer characteristics. The results indicate that the selection of the most appropriate multiphase model depends on the flow regime. Thus, careful estimations of the flow regime are recommended to be done before modeling. The computational tool is developed for this purpose during this thesis. The homogeneous multiphase model is valid only for homogeneous suspension, the discrete phase model (DPM) is recommended for homogeneous and heterogeneous suspension where pipe Froude number is greater than 1.0, while the mixture and Eulerian models are able to predict also flow regimes, where pipe Froude number is smaller than 1.0 and particles tend to settle. With increasing material density ratio and decreasing pipe Froude number, the Eulerian model gives the most accurate results, because it does not include simplifications in Navier-Stokes equations like the other models. In addition, the results indicate that the potential location of erosion in the pipe depends on material density ratio. Possible sedimentation of particles can cause erosion and increase pressure drop as well. In the pipe bend, especially secondary flows, perpendicular to the main flow, affect the location of erosion.

Large-eddy simulation of wind flows over complex terrains for wind energy applications

Wind energy has obtained outstanding expectations due to risks of global warming and nuclear energy production plant accidents. Nowadays, wind farms are often constructed in areas of complex terrain. A potential wind farm location must have the site thoroughly surveyed and the wind climatology analyzed before installing any hardware. Therefore, modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows over complex terrains containing, e.g. hills, forest, and lakes is of great interest in wind energy applications, as it can help in locating and optimizing the wind farms. Numerical modeling of wind flows using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become a popular technique during the last few decades. Due to the inherent flow variability and large-scale unsteadiness typical in ABL flows in general and especially over complex terrains, the flow can be difficult to be predicted accurately enough by using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Large- Eddy Simulation (LES) resolves the largest and thus most important turbulent eddies and models only the small-scale motions which are more universal than the large eddies and thus easier to model. Therefore, LES is expected to be more suitable for this kind of simulations although it is computationally more expensive than the RANS approach. With the fast development of computers and open-source CFD software during the recent years, the application of LES toward atmospheric flow is becoming increasingly common nowadays. The aim of the work is to simulate atmospheric flows over realistic and complex terrains by means of LES. Evaluation of potential in-land wind park locations will be the main application for these simulations. Development of the LES methodology to simulate the atmospheric flows over realistic terrains is reported in the thesis. The work also aims at validating the LES methodology at a real scale. In the thesis, LES are carried out for flow problems ranging from basic channel flows to real atmospheric flows over one of the most recent real-life complex terrain problems, the Bolund hill. All the simulations reported in the thesis are carried out using a new OpenFOAM® -based LES solver. The solver uses the 4th order time-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme and a fractional step method. Moreover, development of the LES methodology includes special attention to two boundary conditions: the upstream (inflow) and wall boundary conditions. The upstream boundary condition is generated by using the so-called recycling technique, in which the instantaneous flow properties are sampled on aplane downstream of the inlet and mapped back to the inlet at each time step. This technique develops the upstream boundary-layer flow together with the inflow turbulence without using any precursor simulation and thus within a single computational domain. The roughness of the terrain surface is modeled by implementing a new wall function into OpenFOAM® during the thesis work. Both, the recycling method and the newly implemented wall function, are validated for the channel flows at relatively high Reynolds number before applying them to the atmospheric flow applications. After validating the LES model over simple flows, the simulations are carried out for atmospheric boundary-layer flows over two types of hills: first, two-dimensional wind-tunnel hill profiles and second, the Bolund hill located in Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. For the twodimensional wind-tunnel hills, the study focuses on the overall flow behavior as a function of the hill slope. Moreover, the simulations are repeated using another wall function suitable for smooth surfaces, which already existed in OpenFOAM® , in order to study the sensitivity of the flow to the surface roughness in ABL flows. The simulated results obtained using the two wall functions are compared against the wind-tunnel measurements. It is shown that LES using the implemented wall function produces overall satisfactory results on the turbulent flow over the two-dimensional hills. The prediction of the flow separation and reattachment-length for the steeper hill is closer to the measurements than the other numerical studies reported in the past for the same hill geometry. The field measurement campaign performed over the Bolund hill provides the most recent field-experiment dataset for the mean flow and the turbulence properties. A number of research groups have simulated the wind flows over the Bolund hill. Due to the challenging features of the hill such as the almost vertical hill slope, it is considered as an ideal experimental test case for validating micro-scale CFD models for wind energy applications. In this work, the simulated results obtained for two wind directions are compared against the field measurements. It is shown that the present LES can reproduce the complex turbulent wind flow structures over a complicated terrain such as the Bolund hill. Especially, the present LES results show the best prediction of the turbulent kinetic energy with an average error of 24.1%, which is a 43% smaller than any other model results reported in the past for the Bolund case. Finally, the validated LES methodology is demonstrated to simulate the wind flow over the existing Muukko wind farm located in South-Eastern Finland. The simulation is carried out only for one wind direction and the results on the instantaneous and time-averaged wind speeds are briefly reported. The demonstration case is followed by discussions on the practical aspects of LES for the wind resource assessment over a realistic inland wind farm.

Heuristics for the Critical Node Detection Problem in Large Complex Networks

Complex networks have recently attracted a significant amount of research attention due to their ability to model real world phenomena. One important problem often encountered is to limit diffusive processes spread over the network, for example mitigating pandemic disease or computer virus spread. A number of problem formulations have been proposed that aim to solve such problems based on desired network characteristics, such as maintaining the largest network component after node removal. The recently formulated critical node detection problem aims to remove a small subset of vertices from the network such that the residual network has minimum pairwise connectivity. Unfortunately, the problem is NP-hard and also the number of constraints is cubic in number of vertices, making very large scale problems impossible to solve with traditional mathematical programming techniques. Even many approximation algorithm strategies such as dynamic programming, evolutionary algorithms, etc. all are unusable for networks that contain thousands to millions of vertices. A computationally efficient and simple approach is required in such circumstances, but none currently exist. In this thesis, such an algorithm is proposed. The methodology is based on a depth-first search traversal of the network, and a specially designed ranking function that considers information local to each vertex. Due to the variety of network structures, a number of characteristics must be taken into consideration and combined into a single rank that measures the utility of removing each vertex. Since removing a vertex in sequential fashion impacts the network structure, an efficient post-processing algorithm is also proposed to quickly re-rank vertices. Experiments on a range of common complex network models with varying number of vertices are considered, in addition to real world networks. The proposed algorithm, DFSH, is shown to be highly competitive and often outperforms existing strategies such as Google PageRank for minimizing pairwise connectivity.

A Multi-scale Model for Copper Dishing in Chemical-Mechanical Polishing

The present success in the manufacture of multi-layer interconnects in ultra-large-scale integration is largely due to the acceptable planarization capabilities of the chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP) process. In the past decade, copper has emerged as the preferred interconnect material. The greatest challenge in Cu CMP at present is the control of wafer surface non-uniformity at various scales. As the size of a wafer has increased to 300 mm, the wafer-level non-uniformity has assumed critical importance. Moreover, the pattern geometry in each die has become quite complex due to a wide range of feature sizes and multi-level structures. Therefore, it is important to develop a non-uniformity model that integrates wafer-, die- and feature-level variations into a unified, multi-scale dielectric erosion and Cu dishing model. In this paper, a systematic way of characterizing and modeling dishing in the single-step Cu CMP process is presented. The possible causes of dishing at each scale are identified in terms of several geometric and process parameters. The feature-scale pressure calculation based on the step-height at each polishing stage is introduced. The dishing model is based on pad elastic deformation and the evolving pattern geometry, and is integrated with the wafer- and die-level variations. Experimental and analytical means of determining the model parameters are outlined and the model is validated by polishing experiments on patterned wafers. Finally, practical approaches for minimizing Cu dishing are suggested.

A Multi-scale Model for Copper Dishing in Chemical-Mechanical Polishing

The present success in the manufacture of multi-layer interconnects in ultra-large-scale integration is largely due to the acceptable planarization capabilities of the chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP) process. In the past decade, copper has emerged as the preferred interconnect material. The greatest challenge in Cu CMP at present is the control of wafer surface non-uniformity at various scales. As the size of a wafer has increased to 300 mm, the wafer-level non-uniformity has assumed critical importance. Moreover, the pattern geometry in each die has become quite complex due to a wide range of feature sizes and multi-level structures. Therefore, it is important to develop a non-uniformity model that integrates wafer-, die- and feature-level variations into a unified, multi-scale dielectric erosion and Cu dishing model. In this paper, a systematic way of characterizing and modeling dishing in the single-step Cu CMP process is presented. The possible causes of dishing at each scale are identified in terms of several geometric and process parameters. The feature-scale pressure calculation based on the step-height at each polishing stage is introduced. The dishing model is based on pad elastic deformation and the evolving pattern geometry, and is integrated with the wafer- and die-level variations. Experimental and analytical means of determining the model parameters are outlined and the model is validated by polishing experiments on patterned wafers. Finally, practical approaches for minimizing Cu dishing are suggested.

Modelling for Problem Solving in the Large

This a short presentation which introduces how models and modelling help us to solve large scale problems in the real world. It introduces the idea that dynamic behaviour is caused by interacting components in the system. Feedback in the system makes behaviour prediction difficult unless we use modelling to support understanding

Nest Boxes Facilitate Local-Scale Conservation of Common Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) and Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) in Alberta, Canada

We tested the general predictions of increased use of nest boxes and positive trends in local populations of Common Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) and Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) following the large-scale provision of nest boxes in a study area of central Alberta over a 16-year period. Nest boxes were rapidly occupied, primarily by Common Goldeneye and Bufflehead, but also by European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris). After 5 years of deployment, occupancy of large boxes by Common Goldeneye was 82% to 90% and occupancy of small boxes by Bufflehead was 37% to 58%. Based on a single-stage cluster design, experimental closure of nest boxes resulted in significant reductions in numbers of broods and brood sizes produced by Common Goldeneye and Bufflehead. Occurrence and densities of Common Goldeneye and Bufflehead increased significantly across years following nest box deployment at the local scale, but not at the larger regional scale. Provision of nest boxes may represent a viable strategy for increasing breeding populations of these two waterfowl species on landscapes where large trees and natural cavities are uncommon but wetland density is high.

Establishing Winter Origins of Migrating Lesser Snow Geese Using Stable Isotopes

Increases in Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens) populations and large-scale habitat changes in North America have contributed to the concentration of migratory waterfowl on fewer wetlands, reducing resource availability, and enhancing risks of disease transmission. Predicting wintering locations of migratory individuals is critical to guide wildlife population management and habitat restoration. We used stable carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N), and hydrogen (δ2H) isotope ratios in muscle tissue of wintering Snow Geese to discriminate four major wintering areas, the Playa Lake Region, Texas Gulf Coast, Louisiana Gulf Coast, and Arkansas, and infer the wintering locations of individuals collected later during the 2007 and 2008 spring migrations in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) of Nebraska. We predicted the wintering ground derivation of migrating Snow Geese using a likelihood-based approach. Our three-isotope analysis provided an efficient discrimination of the four wintering areas. The assignment model predicted that 53% [95% CI: 37-69] of our sample of Snow Geese from the RWB in 2007 had most likely originated in Louisiana, 38% [23-54] had wintered on Texas Gulf Coast, and 9% [0-20] in Arkansas; the assessment suggested that 89% [73-100] of our 2008 sample had most likely come from Texas Gulf Coast, 9% [0-27] from Louisiana Gulf Coast, and 2% [0-9] from Arkansas. Further segregation of wintering grounds and additional sampling of spring migrating Snow Geese would refine overall assignment and help explain interannual variations in migratory connectivity. The ability to distinguish origins of northbound geese can support the development of spatially-adaptive management strategies for the midcontinent Snow Goose population. Establishing migratory connectivity using isotope assignment techniques can be extended to other waterfowl species to determine critical habitat, evaluate population energy requirements, and inform waterfowl conservation and management strategies.

On the generation mechanisms of short-scale unbalanced modes in rotating two-layer flows with vertical shear

We report on the results of a laboratory investigation using a rotating two-layer annulus experiment, which exhibits both large-scale vortical modes and short-scale divergent modes. A sophisticated visualization method allows us to observe the flow at very high spatial and temporal resolution. The balanced long-wavelength modes appear only when the Froude number is supercritical (i.e. $F\,{>}\,F_\mathrm{critical}\,{\equiv}\, \upi^2/2$), and are therefore consistent with generation by a baroclinic instability. The unbalanced short-wavelength modes appear locally in every single baroclinically unstable flow, providing perhaps the first direct experimental evidence that all evolving vortical flows will tend to emit freely propagating inertia–gravity waves. The short-wavelength modes also appear in certain baroclinically stable flows. We infer the generation mechanisms of the short-scale waves, both for the baro-clinically unstable case in which they co-exist with a large-scale wave, and for the baroclinically stable case in which they exist alone. The two possible mechanisms considered are spontaneous adjustment of the large-scale flow, and Kelvin–Helmholtz shear instability. Short modes in the baroclinically stable regime are generated only when the Richardson number is subcritical (i.e. $\hbox{\it Ri}\,{<}\,\hbox{\it Ri}_\mathrm{critical}\,{\equiv}\, 1$), and are therefore consistent with generation by a Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. We calculate five indicators of short-wave generation in the baroclinically unstable regime, using data from a quasi-geostrophic numerical model of the annulus. There is excellent agreement between the spatial locations of short-wave emission observed in the laboratory, and regions in which the model Lighthill/Ford inertia–gravity wave source term is large. We infer that the short waves in the baroclinically unstable fluid are freely propagating inertia–gravity waves generated by spontaneous adjustment of the large-scale flow.

Very large inverse problems in atmosphere and ocean modelling

For the very large nonlinear dynamical systems that arise in a wide range of physical, biological and environmental problems, the data needed to initialize a numerical forecasting model are seldom available. To generate accurate estimates of the expected states of the system, both current and future, the technique of ‘data assimilation’ is used to combine the numerical model predictions with observations of the system measured over time. Assimilation of data is an inverse problem that for very large-scale systems is generally ill-posed. In four-dimensional variational assimilation schemes, the dynamical model equations provide constraints that act to spread information into data sparse regions, enabling the state of the system to be reconstructed accurately. The mechanism for this is not well understood. Singular value decomposition techniques are applied here to the observability matrix of the system in order to analyse the critical features in this process. Simplified models are used to demonstrate how information is propagated from observed regions into unobserved areas. The impact of the size of the observational noise and the temporal position of the observations is examined. The best signal-to-noise ratio needed to extract the most information from the observations is estimated using Tikhonov regularization theory. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.