A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

Erosion and channel change as factors of landslides and valley formation in Champlain sea clays: The Chacoura river, Quebec, Canada

The Champlain Sea clays of Eastern Canada are incised by numerous rivers. Their slopes have been modified by landslides: on the Chacoura River near Trois-Rivières (Quebec), several large landslide scars, more or less recent, are visible. The role of erosion (channel incision, lateral channel migration and erosion of slopes due to agricultural drainage) as a trigger of these landslides is important. The aim of this study is to understand how erosion and landslides are related to valley development. From a detailed analysis of aerial photographs and DEMs, a map of the phenomena has been drawn by identifying various elements such as landslides, limits of the slope, position of the channel, and the area covered by forest. It is shown that channel change and erosion are strongly linked to landslides by the fact that they change the bank morphology in an unstable way. A slide in itself is a natural way for the slope to achieve stability. But when it occurs in a stream, it creates a disturbance to the stream flow enhancing local erosion which may change the river path and generate more erosion downstream or upstream resulting in more slides. Cross-valley sections and a longitudinal profile show that landslides are a major factor of valley formation. It appears that the upper part of the Chacoura River valley is still unaffected by landslides and has V-shaped sections. The lower part has been subject to intense erosion and many landslide scars can be seen. This shows that the valley morphology is transient, and that future activity is more likely to occur in the upper part of the river. Therefore the identification of areas prone to erosion will help determine the possible location of future large landslides just like the ones that occurred in the lower part.

A Topological Approach to Fuzzy Sets

This thesis presents a topological approach to studying fuzzy setsby means of modifier operators. Modifier operators are mathematical models, e.g., for hedges, and we present briefly different approaches to studying modifier operators. We are interested in compositional modifier operators, modifiers for short, and these modifiers depend on binary relations. We show that if a modifier depends on a reflexive and transitive binary relation on U, then there exists a unique topology on U such that this modifier is the closure operator in that topology. Also, if U is finite then there exists a lattice isomorphism between the class of all reflexive and transitive relations and the class of all topologies on U. We define topological similarity relation "≈" between L-fuzzy sets in an universe U, and show that the class LU/ ≈ is isomorphic with the class of all topologies on U, if U is finite and L is suitable. We consider finite bitopological spaces as approximation spaces, and we show that lower and upper approximations can be computed by means of α-level sets also in the case of equivalence relations. This means that approximations in the sense of Rough Set Theory can be computed by means of α-level sets. Finally, we present and application to data analysis: we study an approach to detecting dependencies of attributes in data base-like systems, called information systems.

Spatial pattern of landslides in Swiss Rhone valley

The present study analyses the spatial pattern of quaternary gravitational slope deformations (GSD) and historical/present-day instabilities (HPI) inventoried in the Swiss Rhone Valley. The main objective is to test if these events are clustered (spatial attraction) or randomly distributed (spatial independency). Moreover, analogies with the cluster behaviour of earthquakes inventoried in the same area were examined. The Ripley's K-function was applied to measure and test for randomness. This indicator allows describing the spatial pattern of a point process at increasing distance values. To account for the non-constant intensity of the geological phenomena, a modification of the K-function for inhomogeneous point processes was adopted. The specific goal is to explore the spatial attraction (i.e. cluster behaviour) among landslide events and between gravitational slope deformations and earthquakes. To discover if the two classes of instabilities (GSD and HPI) are spatially independently distributed, the cross K-function was computed. The results show that all the geological events under study are spatially clustered at a well-defined distance range. GSD and HPI show a similar pattern distribution with clusters in the range 0.75?9 km. The cross K-function reveals an attraction between the two classes of instabilities in the range 0?4 km confirming that HPI are more prone to occur within large-scale slope deformations. The K-function computed for GSD and earthquakes indicates that both present a cluster tendency in the range 0?10 km, suggesting that earthquakes could represent a potential predisposing factor which could influence the GSD distribution.

The First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides: technical issues, problems and solutions for managing early warning systems

Early warning systems (EWSs) rely on the capacity to forecast a dangerous event with a certain amount of advance by defining warning criteria on which the safety of the population will depend. Monitoring of landslides is facilitated by new technologies, decreasing prices and easier data processing. At the same time, predicting the onset of a rapid failure or the sudden transition from slow to rapid failure and subsequent collapse, and its consequences is challenging for scientists that must deal with uncertainties and have limited tools to do so. Furthermore, EWS and warning criteria are becoming more and more a subject of concern between technical experts, researchers, stakeholders and decision makers responsible for the activation, enforcement and approval of civil protection actions. EWSs imply also a sharing of responsibilities which is often averted by technical staff, managers of technical offices and governing institutions. We organized the First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides (IWWCAS) to promote sharing and networking among members from specialized institutions and relevant experts of EWS. In this paper, we summarize the event to stimulate discussion and collaboration between organizations dealing with the complex task of managing hazard and risk related to active slides.

Landslide detection and monitoring capability of boat-based mobile laser scanning along Dieppe coastal cliffs, Normandy

Integrated in a wide research assessing destabilizing and triggering factors to model cliff dynamic along the Dieppe's shoreline in High Normandy, this study aims at testing boat-based mobile LiDAR capabilities by scanning 3D point clouds of the unstable coastal cliffs. Two acquisition campaigns were performed in September 2012 and September 2013, scanning (1) a 30-km-long shoreline and (2) the same test cliffs in different environmental conditions and device settings. The potentials of collected data for 3D modelling, change detection and landslide monitoring were afterward assessed. By scanning during favourable meteorological and marine conditions and close to the coast, mobile LiDAR devices are able to quickly scan a long shoreline with median point spacing up to 10cm. The acquired data are then sufficiently detailed to map geomorphological features smaller than 0.5m2. Furthermore, our capability to detect rockfalls and erosion deposits (>m3) is confirmed, since using the classical approach of computing differences between sequential acquisitions reveals many cliff collapses between Pourville and Quiberville and only sparse changes between Dieppe and Belleville-sur-Mer. These different change rates result from different rockfall susceptibilities. Finally, we also confirmed the capability of the boat-based mobile LiDAR technique to monitor single large changes, characterizing the Dieppe landslide geometry with two main active scarps, retrogression up to 40m and about 100,000m3 of eroded materials.

L-Fuzzy Relations in Coq

Heyting categories, a variant of Dedekind categories, and Arrow categories provide a convenient framework for expressing and reasoning about fuzzy relations and programs based on those methods. In this thesis we present an implementation of Heyting and arrow categories suitable for reasoning and program execution using Coq, an interactive theorem prover based on Higher-Order Logic (HOL) with dependent types. This implementation can be used to specify and develop correct software based on L-fuzzy relations such as fuzzy controllers. We give an overview of lattices, L-fuzzy relations, category theory and dependent type theory before describing our implementation. In addition, we provide examples of program executions based on our framework.

Reconocimiento geofísico del deslizamiento de Rosiana (depresión de Tirajana, Gran Canaria)

The landslide of Rosiana is considered the largest slope movement amongst those known in historical times in Gran Canana, Canary Islands. It has been activated at least 4 times in the last century, and in the movement of 1956, when about 3.106 m3 of materials were involved, 250 people had to be evacuated and many buildings were destroyed. The present geological hazard has lead to specific studies of the phenomenon which, once characterised, can be used as a guide for the scientific and technical works that are to be made in this or similar areas. This paper wants to increase the knowledge about the unstable mass of Rosiana by using geophysical techniques based on the method of seismic by refraction. The geophysical measues have been interpreted with the aid of the available geomorphologic data, thus obtaining a first approximation to the geometry of the slope movements

Ambiente para avaliação de controladores fuzzy aplicados ao método de elevação artificial por bombeio centrífugo submerso

From their early days, Electrical Submergible Pumping (ESP) units have excelled in lifting much greater liquid rates than most of the other types of artificial lift and developed by good performance in wells with high BSW, in onshore and offshore environments. For all artificial lift system, the lifetime and frequency of interventions are of paramount importance, given the high costs of rigs and equipment, plus the losses coming from a halt in production. In search of a better life of the system comes the need to work with the same efficiency and security within the limits of their equipment, this implies the need for periodic adjustments, monitoring and control. How is increasing the prospect of minimizing direct human actions, these adjustments should be made increasingly via automation. The automated system not only provides a longer life, but also greater control over the production of the well. The controller is the brain of most automation systems, it is inserted the logic and strategies in the work process in order to get you to work efficiently. So great is the importance of controlling for any automation system is expected that, with better understanding of ESP system and the development of research, many controllers will be proposed for this method of artificial lift. Once a controller is proposed, it must be tested and validated before they take it as efficient and functional. The use of a producing well or a test well could favor the completion of testing, but with the serious risk that flaws in the design of the controller were to cause damage to oil well equipment, many of them expensive. Given this reality, the main objective of the present work is to present an environment for evaluation of fuzzy controllers for wells equipped with ESP system, using a computer simulator representing a virtual oil well, a software design fuzzy controllers and a PLC. The use of the proposed environment will enable a reduction in time required for testing and adjustments to the controller and evaluated a rapid diagnosis of their efficiency and effectiveness. The control algorithms are implemented in both high-level language, through the controller design software, such as specific language for programming PLCs, Ladder Diagram language.

Desenvolvimento de um ambiente para projeto de controladores fuzzy para dispositivos móveis

Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to Fuzzy intelligent systems are present in a variety of equipment ranging from household appliances to small devices such as digital cameras and cell phones being used primarily for dealing with the uncertainties in the modeling of real systems. However, commercial implementations of Fuzzy systems are not general purpose and do not have portability to different hardware platforms. Thinking about these issues this work presents the implementation of an open source development environment that consists of a desktop system capable of generate Graphically a general purpose Fuzzy controller and export these parameters for an embedded system with a Fuzzy controller written in Java Platform Micro Edition To (J2ME), whose modular design makes it portable to any mobile device that supports J2ME. Thus, the proposed development platform is capable of generating all the parameters of a Fuzzy controller and export it in XML file, and the code responsible for the control logic that is embedded in the mobile device is able to read this file and start the controller. All the parameters of a Fuzzy controller are configurable using the desktop system, since the membership functions and rule base, even the universe of discourse of the linguistic terms of output variables. This system generates Fuzzy controllers for the interpolation model of Takagi-Sugeno. As the validation process and testing of the proposed solution the Fuzzy controller was embedded on the mobile device Sun SPOT ® and used to control a plant-level Quanser®, and to compare the Fuzzy controller generated by the system with other types of controllers was implemented and embedded in sun spot a PID controller to control the same level plant of Quanser®

Identification of Landslide Scars in the Region of the Serra do Mar, São Paulo State, Brazil, Using Digital Image Processing and Spatial Analysis Tools

The objective of the present study, developed in a mountainous region in Brazil where many landslides occur, is to present a method for detecting landslide scars that couples image processing techniques with spatial analysis tools. An IKONOS image was initially segmented, and then classified through a Batthacharrya classifier, with an acceptance limit of 99%, resulting in 216 polygons identified with a spectral response similar to landslide scars. After making use of some spatial analysis tools that took into account a susceptibility map, a map of local drainage channels and highways, and the maximum expected size of scars in the study area, some features misinterpreted as scars were excluded. The 43 resulting features were then compared with visually interpreted landslide scars and field observations. The proposed method can be reproduced and enhanced by adding filtering criteria and was able to find new scars on the image, with a final error rate of 2.3%.

Aplicação do Processo Analítico Hierarquico (AHP) Para Priorização de Obras de Intervenção em Áreas e Setores de Risco Geológico nos Municípios de Itapecerica da Serra e Suzano (SP)

Municipal Plans of Risk Reducing (PMRR's) were produced in settlements in the municipalities of Itapecerica da Serra (SP) and Suzano (SP), covering areas at risk of landslides and washouts of banks of streams. The development of PMRR's provided the delimitation of areas of risk, the indication of intervention works in order to eliminate and / or reduce risks, and consequently an indication of the areas and priority sectors for implementation of intervention works. The prioritization of areas and sectors that should receive the works of reducing or eliminating risk was performed by an expert involved in risk mapping. Despite the specialist's judgment exercise caution, the decision regarding the priority sites for implementation of alternative interventions is subjective. Since there is no way to eliminate this subjectivity, the use of decision-making techniques is important to evaluate whether the expert's reasoning is consistent. One of the first techniques developed for multiple criteria is the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). This paper describes the results of a research carried out in order to assess whether the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process contributes to the results of the indication of the areas and priority sectors for implementation of interventions can be considered more consistent than in situations where the priority occurs without the use of decision making techniques. Results were compared between the prioritization of interventions for implementation contained in PMRR's of Itapecerica da Serra and Suzano and those obtained from the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was concluded that such techniques permits an evaluation of the expert's judgment is logically coherent, thus contributing to produce results more technically based.

Aplicação da Lógica Fuzzy para avaliação do faturamento do consumo de energia elétrica e demanda de uma empresa de avicultura de postura

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Uso de engenharia de software no desenvolvimento de sistema especialista fuzzy para auxílio à manutenção preditiva em hidrogeradores

Os hidrogeradores são peças chaves no circuito brasileiro de energia, sua indisponibilidade e mau funcionamento podem causar multas altíssimas a concessionárias aplicadas pela ANEEL por não atenderem a demandas e até por paradas impróprias para efetivar manutenções, além de agravar confiabilidade na garantia do fornecimento aos consumidores finais. Para garantir que isso não venha acontecer, a manutenção preditiva fornece técnicas que podem apontar as falhas analisando os “sinais vitais” originados pelo próprio equipamento. Desta forma as condições mecânicas e operacionais são periodicamente monitoradas e quando as tendências são detectadas insalubres, as peças incômodas na máquina são identificadas e programadas para manutenção. Para que essa tendência seja encontrada, utiliza-se da lógica fuzzy para modelar o comportamento dos hidrogeradores, sendo mais especifico: mancais, estator e anel coletor, inferindo conclusões prováveis de falhas. Neste trabalho, mostra o processo de construção do sistema que auxilia no diagnóstico da manutenção preditiva, desde sua metodologia de desenvolvimento por macro-atividades, definição arquitetural, conformidade dos requisitos e análise do conhecimento inserido a inteligência do sistema. O sistema foi desenvolvido em plataforma labview para servir como ferramenta de apoio. Todo o conhecimento inserido no sistema foi obtido com o corpo especialista de Eletronorte e outra parte na literatura, foi necessário aplicar o conceito de regras ao maquina de inferência fuzzy, para uma forma linguística de fácil compreensão, para que os próprios especialistas ampliem e evolua o software.