Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

The best practices in the formation phase of Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China: For Finnish software companies

This study discusses the formation phase of Chinese-Finnish joint ventures in China. The purpose of this thesis is to create best practices for Finnish software companies in forming a joint venture with a local Chinese company in China. Therefore, the main research question, in what are the best practices for forming Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China for Finnish software firms, is examined through four different themes within the joint venture formation phase; the motives, the partner se-lection, the choice of a joint venture type and joint venture negotiations. The theoretical background of the study consists of literature relating to the establishment process of Sino-Western joint ventures in China. The empirical research conducted for this study is based on the expert interviews. The empirical data was gathered via nine semi-structured interviews with both Chinese and Finnish experts in software and technology industry, who have experience or knowledge in establishing Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China. Thematic analysis was used to cat-egorize and interpret the interview data. In addition, a thematic network was built to act as a basis of the analysis. According to the main findings, the main motives for Finnish software companies to establish a joint venture in China are lack of skills or experience, little resources to enter on their own, and China’s large market. The main motives for Chinese companies are to gain new technology or man-agerial skills, and expand internationally. The intellectual property rights (IPR) have recently im-proved a lot in China, but the Finnish companies’ knowledge on IPR is inadequate. The Finnish software companies should conduct a market and industry research in order to understand their po-sition in the market and to find a suitable location and potential joint venture partners. It is essential to define partner selection criteria and partner attributes. In addition, it is important to build the joint venture around complementary motives and a win-win situation between the joint venture partners. The Finnish companies should be prepared that the joint venture negotiations will be challenging and they will take a long time. The challenges can be overcome by gaining understanding about the Chinese culture and business environment. The findings of this study enhance understanding of the joint venture formation phase in China. This study provides guidelines for Finnish software companies to establish a joint venture in China. In addition, this study brings new insights to the Sino-Western joint venture literature with its soft-ware industry context. Future research is, however, necessary in order to gain an understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of a joint venture as an entry mode into China for Finnish soft-ware companies.

Screening of power to gas projects

The purpose of this thesis was the screening of power to gas projects worldwide and reviewing the technologies used and applications for the end products. This study focuses solely on technical solutions and feasibility, economical profitability is excluded. With power grids having larger penetrations of intermittent sources such as solar and wind power, the demand and production cannot be balanced in conventional methods. Technologies for storing electric power in times of surplus production are needed, and the concept called power to gas is a solution for this problem. A total of 57 projects mostly located in Europe were reviewed by going through publications, presentations and project web pages. Hydrogen is the more popular end product over methane. Power to gas is a viable concept when power production from intermittent sources needs to be smoothed and time shifted, when carbon free fuels are produced for vehicles and when chemical industry needs carbon neutral raw materials.

Temoignage public rendu a M. Dibon, chirurgien ordinaire du Roi dans la compagnie des Cent-Suisses de la garde du corps de Sa Majesté. Par Pierre De Dyn d'Anvers. On y a joint les preuves de la cure, avec quelques réflexions concernant M. de Torrès, par qui le malade avoit été manqué

Comprend : Réflexions concernant M. de Torrés, qui avoit manqué le malade en question, & sur le nouvel ecrit qu'il a répandu sous ce titre : Réponse à la réfutation que M. Dibon vient de faire de deux écrits publiés il y a un an en faveur de M. de Torrés, par M. Carboneil, docteur en médecine