The economic situation

This is a quarterly newsletter on the economy written by Senior Fellow Bruce Yandle, Clemson Alumni Distinguished Professor of Economics Emeritus and Interim Dean of Clemson's College of Business & Behavioral Science. The newsletter provides an analysis of national, regional, and state economic trends and activity. Each issue gives an update on GDP growth, interest rate trends, and comments on major events that affect the economic outlook.

SC INFORMATION LETTER #16-4 (revised)

The interest rate to be applied to underpayments and overpayments of taxes is listed. The rate is compounded daily except simple interest applies to the underpayment of declaration of estimated tax.

The economic situation

This is a quarterly newsletter on the economy written by Senior Fellow Bruce Yandle, Clemson Alumni Distinguished Professor of Economics Emeritus and Interim Dean of Clemson's College of Business & Behavioral Science. The newsletter provides an analysis of national, regional, and state economic trends and activity. Each issue gives an update on GDP growth, interest rate trends, and comments on major events that affect the economic outlook.

The economic situation

This is a quarterly newsletter on the economy written by Senior Fellow Bruce Yandle, Clemson Alumni Distinguished Professor of Economics Emeritus and Interim Dean of Clemson's College of Business & Behavioral Science. The newsletter provides an analysis of national, regional, and state economic trends and activity. Each issue gives an update on GDP growth, interest rate trends, and comments on major events that affect the economic outlook.

BM: Tributación y concentración en el sistema financiero Colombiano 1989 - 2003

El presente documento analiza los determinantes del margen de intermediación para el sistema financiero colombiano entre 1989 y 2003. Bajo una estimación dinámica de los efectos generados por variables específicas de actividad, impuestos y estructura de mercado, se presenta un seguimiento del margen de intermediación financiero, para un período que presenta elementos de liberalización y crisis.

The Influence of Age and Size on Family-Owned Firms’ Financing Decisions: Empirical Evidence Using Panel Data

Based on four samples of Portuguese family-owned firmsdi) 185 young, low-sized family-owned firms; ii) 167 young, high-sized familyowned firms; iii) 301 old, low-sized family-owned firms; and iv) 353 old, high-sized family-owned firms d we show that age and size are fundamental characteristics in family-owned firms’ financing decisions. The multiple empirical evidence obtained allows us to conclude that the financing decisions of young, low-sized family-owned firms are quite close to the assumptions of Pecking Order Theory, whereas those of old, high-sized family-owned firms are quite close to what is forecast by Trade-Off Theory. The lesser information asymmetry associated with greater age, the lesser likelihood of bankruptcy associated with greater size, as well as the lesser concentration of ownership and management consequence of greater age and size, may be especially important in the financing decisions of family-owned firms. In addition, we find that GDP, interest rate and periods of crisis have a greater effect on the debt of young, low-sized family-owned firms than on that of family-owned firms of the remainder research samples.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Open and closed positions and stock index futures volatility

In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.

Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

How Were Conflicts of Interest Handled?

Conflicts of interest were potentially great but they were minimized by the great conviction from both Doctors and Health Ministry that something had to be done to improve data on perinatal health. To decrease the number of hospitals where deliveries took place, to concentrate doctors, nurses and equipment, to define staff and to acquire equipment and to train nurses and paediatricians was the way. One the point of view of cost-effectiveness, centralization of expensive technologies, and development of expertise concentrating cases in a same centre - Surgery, VLBW, etc- and lowering mortality rates and get better outcomes were clear health gains. In 1989 after the political decision of closing small maternities the committee return to villages and cities to explain to political local power and people, the decision, which kind of care they will have in the future, why and expected gains. Level I hospitals and Health Centers stop to have deliveries; Health Centers were given a great responsibility: the follow up of the most part of the normal pregnancies by GP. There was no economic pressure because the National Health Service is free, there are no economic incentives for obstetrical or neonatal care, hospitals are financed through ICD, hospital level is defined according to both delivery and newborn care. In 1989 the rule was “No results can be obtained without the interested and responsible participation of all – institutions and people”. At that time the emphasis was on training. There are geographic influences on regionalization for example for islands and inner and far geographic areas. Also we would like to emphasize the influence of demographics on regionalization. As birth rate continues to decrease the hospitals left open 20 years ago with more than 1500 deliveries have to be closed now because the number of deliveries decreased. It was much more difficult and unacceptable to close some few maternities now than 20 years ago. All the difference was that at that time reasons were explained and now it was a Minister order. Other fearful events are the opening of private hospitals, the lowering gross national income, the economic difficulties and financial problems.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.