Real-Time models to predict the use of vasopressors in monitored patients

The needs of reducing human error has been growing in every field of study, and medicine is one of those. Through the implementation of technologies is possible to help in the decision making process of clinics, therefore to reduce the difficulties that are typically faced. This study focuses on easing some of those difficulties by presenting real-time data mining models capable of predicting if a monitored patient, typically admitted in intensive care, will need to take vasopressors. Data Mining models were induced using clinical variables such as vital signs, laboratory analysis, among others. The best model presented a sensitivity of 94.94%. With this model it is possible reducing the misuse of vasopressors acting as prevention. At same time it is offered a better care to patients by anticipating their treatment with vasopressors.

The influence of patient's consciousness regarding high blood pressure and patient's attitude in face of disease controlling medicine intake

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between blood pressure control and the following: the Morisky-Green test, the patient's consciousness regarding high blood pressure, the patient's attitude in face of medicine intake, the patient's attendance at medical consultations, and the subjective physician's judgment. METHODS: We studied 130 hypertensive patients with the following characteristics: 73% females, 60±11 years, 58% married, 70% white, 45% retired, 45% with incomplete elementary schooling, 64% had a familial income of 1 to 3 minimum wages, body mass index of 30±7 kg/m², consciousness regarding the disease for a mean period of 11±9.5 years, and mean treatment duration of 8 ±7 years. RESULTS: Only 35% of the hypertensive individuals had blood pressure under control and a longer duration of treatment (10±7 vs 7±6.5 years; P<0.05). The retiree predominated. The result of the Morisky-Green test did not relate to blood pressure control. In evaluating the attitude in face of medicine intake, the controlled patients achieved significantly higher scores than did the noncontrolled patients (8±1.9 vs 7 ±2, P<0.05). The hypertensive patients had higher levels of consciousness regarding their disease and its treatment, and most (70%) patients attended 3 or 4 medical consultations, which did not influence blood pressure control. The physicians attributed significantly higher scores regarding adherence to treatment to controlled patients (6±0.8 vs 5±1.2; P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Consciousness regarding the disease, the Morisky-Green test, and attendance to medical consultations did not influence blood pressure control.

Modelos Mixtos-Aditivos Generalizados para el Estudio de Fenómenos Biológicos y Sociales Descriptos por Datos Agregados y/o Longitudinales. Generalized Mixed Additive Models for the Study of Biological and Social Phenomenons from Longitudinal and/or Aggregated Data.

Este proyecto propone extender y generalizar los procesos de estimación e inferencia de modelos aditivos generalizados multivariados para variables aleatorias no gaussianas, que describen comportamientos de fenómenos biológicos y sociales y cuyas representaciones originan series longitudinales y datos agregados (clusters). Se genera teniendo como objeto para las aplicaciones inmediatas, el desarrollo de metodología de modelación para la comprensión de procesos biológicos, ambientales y sociales de las áreas de Salud y las Ciencias Sociales, la condicionan la presencia de fenómenos específicos, como el de las enfermedades.Es así que el plan que se propone intenta estrechar la relación entre la Matemática Aplicada, desde un enfoque bajo incertidumbre y las Ciencias Biológicas y Sociales, en general, generando nuevas herramientas para poder analizar y explicar muchos problemas sobre los cuales tienen cada vez mas información experimental y/o observacional.Se propone, en forma secuencial, comenzando por variables aleatorias discretas (Yi, con función de varianza menor que una potencia par del valor esperado E(Y)) generar una clase unificada de modelos aditivos (paramétricos y no paramétricos) generalizados, la cual contenga como casos particulares a los modelos lineales generalizados, no lineales generalizados, los aditivos generalizados, los de media marginales generalizados (enfoques GEE1 -Liang y Zeger, 1986- y GEE2 -Zhao y Prentice, 1990; Zeger y Qaqish, 1992; Yan y Fine, 2004), iniciando una conexión con los modelos lineales mixtos generalizados para variables latentes (GLLAMM, Skrondal y Rabe-Hesketh, 2004), partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esto permitirá definir distribuciones condicionales de las respuestas, dadas las covariables y las variables latentes y estimar ecuaciones estructurales para las VL, incluyendo regresiones de VL sobre las covariables y regresiones de VL sobre otras VL y modelos específicos para considerar jerarquías de variación ya reconocidas. Cómo definir modelos que consideren estructuras espaciales o temporales, de manera tal que permitan la presencia de factores jerárquicos, fijos o aleatorios, medidos con error como es el caso de las situaciones que se presentan en las Ciencias Sociales y en Epidemiología, es un desafío a nivel estadístico. Se proyecta esa forma secuencial para la construcción de metodología tanto de estimación como de inferencia, comenzando con variables aleatorias Poisson y Bernoulli, incluyendo los existentes MLG, hasta los actuales modelos generalizados jerárquicos, conextando con los GLLAMM, partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esta familia de modelos se generará para estructuras de variables/vectores, covariables y componentes aleatorios jerárquicos que describan fenómenos de las Ciencias Sociales y la Epidemiología.

Bases neurobiológicas del efecto de grelina sobre ansiedad, memoria e ingesta. Neurobiological mechanisms of ghrelin effect on anxiety, memory and food intake.

El objetivo de este proyecto es investigar el sustrato neurobiológico que subyace a los efectos centrales de grelina (Gr) en estructuras extrahipotalámicas tales como núcleo dorsal del rafe (NDR), hipocampo(Hi) y amígdala(Am) donde hemos demostrado que el péptido incrementa la memoria e ingesta, Los mecanismos neurales, neurotrasmisores(nt), segundos mensajeros, etc., involucrados en estos procesos fisiológicos, inducidos por el péptido, necesitan aun ser esclarecidos. Hemos demostrado que grelina incrementa la retención de la memoria cuando es inyectado en Hi, NDR y Am. También incrementa la ingesta al ser administrado en Hi y NDR pero no así en Am. En Hi los efectos de Gr sobre la memoria se correlacionan con incremento en los niveles tisulares de óxido nítrico (NO) y con la disponibilidad del nt 5-HT. En lo que a electrofisiología se refiere hemos demostrado que Gr disminuye el umbral para generar potenciación a largo plazo (LTP). A fin de aportar nuevas evidencias que contribuyan a esclarecer los efectos del péptido sobre memoria e ingesta utilizaremos estudios conductuales, determinaciones bioquímicas y determinaciones electrofisiológicas. En lo que a ingesta se refiere intentaremos esclarecer el papel de los núcleos central y basolateral de la Am en aspectos hedónicos de la ingesta inducida por Gr En esta etapa, más específicamente nos proponemos:1) Determinar si los efectos de grelina sobre ingesta y memoria demostrados en hipocampo y NDR después de la su administración se correlacionan con modificaciones en la liberación de serotonina utilizando cortes de hipocampo precargados con 5HT tritiada en presencia y ausencia del péptido.2) Evaluar si el incremento de óxido nítrico inducido por grelina en hipocampo se correlaciona con cambios en la expresión de nNOS, utilizando Western-blot y la importancia de NOS/NO en la acción de grelina repitiendo los experimentos previo tratamiento de las ratas con inhibidores de NOS. 3)Estudiar la participación del nt glutamato en los efectos hipocampales de Gr sobre la memoria. Analizando a) si grelina modifica la liberación del nt a partir de sinaptosomas aislados de hipocampo de ratas pretratadas con Gr.b) la participación de los receptores NMDA y GABAa en los efectos de grelina previo bloqueo farmacológico del mencionado receptor y el test step down.c) la participación de los receptores NMDA y GABAa en los efectos de grelina utilizando electrofisiología y Western Blot. 4) Estudiar el efecto de la administración de Gr en Amigdala Central y Basolateral sobre aspectos hedónicos de la ingesta utilizando diferentes paradigmas conductuales en animales. Estudiaremos:a) si Gr modifica el consumo de alimento de diferente palatabilidad en animales y si afecta el componente motivacional de la conducta de ingesta paradigma de "runway".

A nutrient balance model for typical Irish farming systems

The twin objectives of the work described were to construct nutrient balance models (NBM) for a range of Irish animal production systems and to evaluate their potential as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes. The NBM has three components. The first is the intake of nutrients in the animal's diet. The second is retention or the nutrients the animal retains for the production of milk, meat or eggs. The third is the balance or the difference between the nutrient intake and retention. Data on the intake levels and their nutrient value for dairy cows, beef cattle, pigs and poultry systems were assembled. Literature searches and interviews with National experts were the primary sources of information. NBMs were then constructed for each production system. Summary tables of the nutrient values for the common diet constituents used in Irish animal production systems, the nutrient composition of the animal products and the NBMs (nutrient intake, retention and excretion) for a range of production systems were assembled. These represent the first comprehensive data set of this type for Irish animal production systems. There was generally good agreement between the derived NBMs values and those published in the literature. The NBMs were validated on a number of farms. Data on animal numbers, fertiliser use, concentrates inputs and production output were recorded on seven farms. Using the data a nutrient input/output balance was constructed for each farm. This was compared with the NBM estimate of the farm nutrient balance. The results showed good agreement between the measured balance and the NBM estimate particularly for the pig and poultry farms. However, the validation emphasised the inherent risks associated with NBMs. The average values used for feed intake and production parameters in the NEMs may result in the under or over estimate of actual nutrient balances on individual farms where these variables are substantially different. On the grassland farms there was a poor correlation between the input/output estimate and the NBM. This possibly results from the omission of the soil's contribution to the nutrient balance. However, the results indicate that the NBMs developed are a potentially useful tool for estimating nutrient balances. They also will serve to highlight the significant fraction of the nutrient inputs into farming systems that are retained on the farm. The potential of the NBM as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes was evaluated on two farms. Feed intake and composition, animal production, slurry production was monitored during the indoor winter feeding period. Slurry samples were taken for analysis. The appropriates NBMs were used to estimate the nutrient balance for each farm. The nutrient content of the slurry produced was calculated. There was a good agreement between the NBM estimate and the measured values. This preliminary evaluation suggests that the NBM has a potential to provide the farmer with a simple means of estimating the nutrient value of his slurry.

Data mining with graphical models

Data Mining, Learning from data, graphical models, possibility theory

Data-driven system identification via evolutionary retrieval of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models

Systemidentification, evolutionary automatic, data-driven model, fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno grammar, genotype interpretability, toxicity-prediction

Models and methods for supporting lot sizing decisions in product recovery systems

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Approximations of the Fisher information for the construction of efficient experimental designs in nonlinear mixed effects models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Experimental design for mixed models with application to population pharmacokinetic studies

experimental design, mixed model, random coefficient regression model, population pharmacokinetics, approximate design

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Turbulent flow structures induced by an engine intake port

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2009

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Simulation of interacting populations in inhomogeneous flows using reduced models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2010

Conversive Hidden non-Markovian models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2012