Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we can model the heteroskedasticity of a linear combination of the errors. We show that this assumption can be satisfied without imposing strong assumptions on the errors in common DID applications. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative inference method that relies on strict stationarity and ergodicity of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment periods. We extend our inference methods to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also derive conditions under which a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator proposed by Abadie et al. (2010) is robust to heteroskedasticity and propose a modification on the test statistic that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations.

Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we know how the heteroskedasticity is generated, which is the case when it is generated by variation in the number of observations per group. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative application of our method that relies on assumptions about stationarity and convergence of the moments of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment groups. We extend our inference method to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also propose a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations than the test suggested by Abadie et al. (2010).

Genetic parameter estimates for buffalo milk yield, milk quality and mozzarella production and Bayesian inference analysis of their relationships

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bayesian inference in genetic parameter estimation of visual scores in Nellore beef-cattle

The aim of this study was to estimate the components of variance and genetic parameters for the visual scores which constitute the Morphological Evaluation System (MES), such as body structure (S), precocity (P) and musculature (M) in Nellore beef-cattle at the weaning and yearling stages, by using threshold Bayesian models. The information used for this was gleaned from visual scores of 5,407 animals evaluated at the weaning and 2,649 at the yearling stages. The genetic parameters for visual score traits were estimated through two-trait analysis, using the threshold animal model, with Bayesian statistics methodology and MTGSAM (Multiple Trait Gibbs Sampler for Animal Models) threshold software. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.62 (at weaning) and 0.44, 0.38 and 0.32 (at the yearling stage), respectively. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were found to be high, and so it is expected that these traits should respond favorably to direct selection. The visual scores evaluated at the weaning and yearling stages might be used in the composition of new selection indexes, as they presented sufficient genetic variability to promote genetic progress in such morphological traits.

Estimation of genetic parameters for milk yield in Murrah buffaloes by Bayesian inference

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genetic parameters for buffalo milk yield and milk quality traits using Bayesian inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo de estratégias de otimização para poços de petróleo com elevação por bombeio de cavidades progressivas

The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system

Genetic correlations between heifer subsequent rebreeding and age at first calving and growth traits in Nellore cattle by Bayesian inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estratégias baseadas em aprendizado para coordenação de uma frota de robôs em tarefas cooperativas

In multi-robot systems, both control architecture and work strategy represent a challenge for researchers. It is important to have a robust architecture that can be easily adapted to requirement changes. It is also important that work strategy allows robots to complete tasks efficiently, considering that robots interact directly in environments with humans. In this context, this work explores two approaches for robot soccer team coordination for cooperative tasks development. Both approaches are based on a combination of imitation learning and reinforcement learning. Thus, in the first approach was developed a control architecture, a fuzzy inference engine for recognizing situations in robot soccer games, a software for narration of robot soccer games based on the inference engine and the implementation of learning by imitation from observation and analysis of others robotic teams. Moreover, state abstraction was efficiently implemented in reinforcement learning applied to the robot soccer standard problem. Finally, reinforcement learning was implemented in a form where actions are explored only in some states (for example, states where an specialist robot system used them) differently to the traditional form, where actions have to be tested in all states. In the second approach reinforcement learning was implemented with function approximation, for which an algorithm called RBF-Sarsa($lambda$) was created. In both approaches batch reinforcement learning algorithms were implemented and imitation learning was used as a seed for reinforcement learning. Moreover, learning from robotic teams controlled by humans was explored. The proposal in this work had revealed efficient in the robot soccer standard problem and, when implemented in other robotics systems, they will allow that these robotics systems can efficiently and effectively develop assigned tasks. These approaches will give high adaptation capabilities to requirements and environment changes.

Search schemes for random optimization algorithms that preserve the asymptotic distribution

Markovian algorithms for estimating the global maximum or minimum of real valued functions defined on some domain Omega subset of R-d are presented. Conditions on the search schemes that preserve the asymptotic distribution are derived. Global and local search schemes satisfying these conditions are analysed and shown to yield sharper confidence intervals when compared to the i.i.d. case.

Beam Search Algorithms for Minimizing Tool Switches on a Flexible Manufacturing System

In the minimization of tool switches problem we seek a sequence to process a set of jobs so that the number of tool switches required is minimized. In this work different variations of a heuristic based on partial ordered job sequences are implemented and evaluated. All variations adopt a depth first strategy of the enumeration tree. The computational test results indicate that good results can be obtained by a variation which keeps the best three branches at each node of the enumeration tree, and randomly choose, among all active nodes, the next node to branch when backtracking.

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Amino Acid Correlation and Community Detection Algorithms to Identify Functional Determinants in Protein Families

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

5S rDNA variation and its phylogenetic inference in the genus Leporinus (Characiformes : Anostomidae)

5S rDNA sequences have proven to be valuable as genetic markers to distinguish closely related species and also in the understanding of the dynamic of repetitive sequences in the genomes. In the aim to contribute to the knowledge of the evolutionary history of Leporinus (Anostomidae) and also to contribute to the understanding of the 5S rDNA sequences organization in the fish genome, analyses of 5S rDNA sequences were conducted in seven species of this genus. The 5S rRNA gene sequence was highly conserved among Leporinus species, whereas NTS exhibit high levels of variations related to insertions, deletions, microrepeats, and base substitutions. The phylogenetic analysis of the 5S rDNA sequences clustered the species into two clades that are in agreement with cytogenetic and morphological data.