840 resultados para hybrid prediction method


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Globally vehicle operators are experiencing rising fuel costs and increased
running expenses as governments around the world attempt to decrease carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel consumption, due to global warming and the drive to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Recent advances in hybrid vehicle design have made great strides towards more efficient operation, with regenerative braking being widely used to capture otherwise lost energy. In this paper a hybrid series bus is developed a step further, by installing another method of energy capture on the vehicle. In this case, it is in the form of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). The waste heat expelled to the exhaust and coolant streams is recovered and converted to electrical energy which is then stored in the hybrid vehicles batteries. The electrical energy can then be used for the auxiliary power circuit or to assist in vehicle propulsion, thus reducing the load on the engine, thereby improving the overall fuel economy of the vehicle and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

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The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

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Lap joints are widely used in the manufacture of stiffened panels and influence local panel sub-component stability, defining buckling unit dimensions and boundary conditions. Using the Finite Element method it is possible to model joints in great detail and predict panel buckling behaviour with accuracy. However, when modelling large panel structures such detailed analysis becomes computationally expensive. Moreover, the impact of local behaviour on global panel performance may reduce as the scale of the modelled structure increases. Thus this study presents coupled computational and experimental analysis, aimed at developing relationships between modelling fidelity and the size of the modelled structure, when the global static load to cause initial buckling is the required analysis output. Small, medium and large specimens representing welded lap-joined fuselage panel structure are examined. Two element types, shell and solid-shell, are employed to model each specimen, highlighting the impact of idealisation on the prediction of welded stiffened panel initial skin buckling.

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This paper proposes an efficient learning mechanism to build fuzzy rule-based systems through the construction of sparse least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs). In addition to the significantly reduced computational complexity in model training, the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy system is sparser while offers satisfactory generalization capability over unseen data. It is well known that the LS-SVMs have their computational advantage over conventional SVMs in the model training process; however, the model sparseness is lost, which is the main drawback of LS-SVMs. This is an open problem for the LS-SVMs. To tackle the nonsparseness issue, a new regression alternative to the Lagrangian solution for the LS-SVM is first presented. A novel efficient learning mechanism is then proposed in this paper to extract a sparse set of support vectors for generating fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This novel mechanism works in a stepwise subset selection manner, including a forward expansion phase and a backward exclusion phase in each selection step. The implementation of the algorithm is computationally very efficient due to the introduction of a few key techniques to avoid the matrix inverse operations to accelerate the training process. The computational efficiency is also confirmed by detailed computational complexity analysis. As a result, the proposed approach is not only able to achieve the sparseness of the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems but significantly reduces the amount of computational effort in model training as well. Three experimental examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed learning mechanism and the sparseness of the obtained LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems, in comparison with other SVM-based learning techniques.

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With the integration of combined heat and power (CHP) units, air-conditioners and gas boilers, power, gas, and heat systems are becoming tightly linked to each other in the integrated community energy system (ICES). Interactions among the three systems are not well captured by traditional methods. To address this issue, a hybrid power-gas-heat flow calculation method was developed in this paper. In the proposed method, an energy hub model was presented to describe interactions among the three systems incorporating various CHP operating modes. In addition, three operating modes were proposed for the ICES including fully decoupled, partially coupled, and fully coupled. Numerical results indicated that the proposed algorithm can be used in the steady-state analysis of the ICES and reflect interactions among various energy systems.

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The fuel consumption of automotive vehicles has become a prime consideration to manufacturers and operators as fuel prices continue to rise steadily, and legislation governing toxic emissions becomes ever more strict. This is particularly true for bus operators as government fuel subsidies are cut or removed.

In an effort to reduce the fuel consumption of a diesel-electric hybrid bus, an exhaust recovery turbogenerator has been selected from a wide ranging literature review as the most appropriate method of recovering some of the wasted heat in the exhaust line. This paper examines the effect on fuel consumption of a turbogenerator applied to a 2.4-litre diesel engine.

A validated one-dimensional engine model created using Ricardo WAVE was used as a baseline, and was modified in subsequent models to include a turbogenerator downstream, and in series with, the turbocharger turbine. A fuel consumption map of the modified engine was produced, and an in-house simulation tool was then used to examine the fuel economy benefit delivered by the turbogenerator on a bus operating on various drive-cycles.

A parametric study is presented which examined the performance of turbogenerators of various size and power output. The operating strategy of the turbogenerator was also discussed with a view to maximising turbine efficiency at each operating point.

The performance of the existing turbocharger on the hybrid bus was also investigated; both the compressor and turbine were optimised and the subsequent benefits to the fuel consumption of the vehicle were shown.

The final configuration is then presented and the overall improvement in fuel economy of the hybrid bus was determined over various drive-cycles.

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Single-Zone modelling is used to assess three 1D impeller loss model collections. An automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressor is used for evaluation. The individual 1D losses are presented relative to each other at three tip speeds to provide a visual description of each author’s perception of the relative importance of each loss. The losses are compared with their resulting prediction of pressure ratio and efficiency, which is further compared with test data; upon comparison, a combination of the 1D loss collections is identified as providing the best performance prediction. 3D CFD simulations have also been carried out for the same geometry using a single passage model. A method of extracting 1D losses from CFD is described and utilised to draw further comparisons with the 1D losses. A 1D scroll volute model has been added to the single passage CFD results; good agreement with the test data is achieved. Short-comings in the existing 1D loss models are identified as a result of the comparisons with 3D CFD losses. Further comparisons are drawn between the predicted 1D data, 3D CFD simulation results, and the test data using a nondimensional method to highlight where the current errors exist in the 1D prediction.

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Abstract. Single-zone modelling is used to assess different collections of impeller 1D loss models. Three collections of loss models have been identified in literature, and the background to each of these collections is discussed. Each collection is evaluated using three modern automotive turbocharger style centrifugal compressors; comparisons of performance for each of the collections are made. An empirical data set taken from standard hot gas stand tests for each turbocharger is used as a baseline for comparison. Compressor range is predicted in this study; impeller diffusion ratio is shown to be a useful method of predicting compressor surge in 1D, and choke is predicted using basic compressible flow theory. The compressor designer can use this as a guide to identify the most compatible collection of losses for turbocharger compressor design applications. The analysis indicates the most appropriate collection for the design of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors.

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Several one-dimensional design methods have been used to predict the off-design performance of three modern centrifugal compressors for automotive turbocharging. The three methods used are single-zone, two-zone, and a more recent statistical method. The predicted results from each method are compared against empirical data taken from standard hot gas stand tests for each turbocharger. Each of the automotive turbochargers considered in this study have notably different geometries and are of varying application. Due to the non-adiabatic test conditions, the empirical data has been corrected for the effect of heat transfer to ensure comparability with the 1D models. Each method is evaluated for usability and accuracy in both pressure ratio and efficiency prediction. The paper presents an insight into the limitations of each of these models when applied to one-dimensional automotive turbocharger design, and proposes that a corrected single-zone modelling approach has the greatest potential for further development, whilst the statistical method could be immediately introduced to a design process where design variations are limited.

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In this study, a comparison of different methods to predict drug−polymer solubility was carried out on binary systems consisting of five model drugs (paracetamol, chloramphenicol, celecoxib, indomethacin, and felodipine) and polyvinylpyrrolidone/vinyl acetate copolymers (PVP/VA) of different monomer weight ratios. The drug−polymer solubility at 25 °C was predicted using the Flory−Huggins model, from data obtained at elevated temperature using thermal analysis methods based on the recrystallization of a supersaturated amorphous solid dispersion and two variations of the melting point depression method. These predictions were compared with the solubility in the low molecular weight liquid analogues of the PVP/VA copolymer (N-vinylpyrrolidone and vinyl acetate). The predicted solubilities at 25 °C varied considerably depending on the method used. However, the three thermal analysis methods ranked the predicted solubilities in the same order, except for the felodipine−PVP system. Furthermore, the magnitude of the predicted solubilities from the recrystallization method and melting point depression method correlated well with the estimates based on the solubility in the liquid analogues, which suggests that this method can be used as an initial screening tool if a liquid analogue is available. The learnings of this important comparative study provided general guidance for the selection of the most suitable method(s) for the screening of drug−polymer solubility.

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After the development of a new single-zone meanline modelling technique, benchmarking of the technique and the modelling methods used during its development are presented. The new meanline model had been developed using the results of three automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors, and single passage CFD models based on their geometry.

The target of the current study was to test the new meanline modelling method on two new centrifugal compressor stages, again from the automotive turbocharger variety. Furthermore the single passage CFD modelling method used in the previous study would be again employed here and also benchmarked.

The benchmarking was twofold; firstly test the overall performance prediction accuracy of the single-zone meanline model. Secondly, test the detailed performance estimation of the CFD model using detailed interstage static pressure tappings.

The final component of this study exposed the weaknesses in the current modelling methods used (explicitly during this study). The non-axisymmetric flow field at the leading and trailing edges for the two compressors was measured and is presented here for the complete compressor map, highlighting the distortion relative to the tongue.

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An evaluation of existing 1-D vaneless diffuser design tools in the context of improving the off-design performance prediction of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors is described. A combination of extensive gas stand test data and single passage CFD simulations have been employed in order to permit evaluation of the different methods, allowing conclusions about the relative benefits and deficiencies of each of the different approaches to be determined. The vaneless diffuser itself has been isolated from the incumbent limitations in the accuracy of 1-D impeller modelling tools through development of a method to fully specify impeller exit conditions (in terms of mean quantities) using only standard test stand data with additional interstage static pressure measurements at the entrance to the diffuser. This method allowed a direct comparison between the test data and 1-D methods through sharing common inputs, thus achieving the aim of diffuser isolation.

Crucial to the accuracy of determining the performance of each of the vaneless diffuser configurations was the ability to quantify the presence and extent of the spanwise aerodynamic blockage present at the diffuser inlet section. A method to evaluate this critical parameter using CFD data is described herein, along with a correlation for blockage related to a new diffuser inlet flow parameter ⚡, equal to the quotient of the local flow coefficient and impeller tip speed Mach number. The resulting correlation permitted the variation of blockage with operating condition to be captured.

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An adhesive elasto-plastic contact model for the discrete element method with three dimensional non-spherical particles is proposed and investigated to achieve quantitative prediction of cohesive powder flowability. Simulations have been performed for uniaxial consolidation followed by unconfined compression to failure using this model. The model has been shown to be capable of predicting the experimental flow function (unconfined compressive strength vs. the prior consolidation stress) for a limestone powder which has been selected as a reference solid in the Europe wide PARDEM research network. Contact plasticity in the model is shown to affect the flowability significantly and is thus essential for producing satisfactory computations of the behaviour of a cohesive granular material. The model predicts a linear relationship between a normalized unconfined compressive strength and the product of coordination number and solid fraction. This linear relationship is in line with the Rumpf model for the tensile strength of particulate agglomerate. Even when the contact adhesion is forced to remain constant, the increasing unconfined strength arising from stress consolidation is still predicted, which has its origin in the contact plasticity leading to microstructural evolution of the coordination number. The filled porosity is predicted to increase as the contact adhesion increases. Under confined compression, the porosity reduces more gradually for the load-dependent adhesion compared to constant adhesion. It was found that the contribution of adhesive force to the limiting friction has a significant effect on the bulk unconfined strength. The results provide new insights and propose a micromechanical based measure for characterising the strength and flowability of cohesive granular materials. 

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A facile method to synthesize a TiO2/PEDOT:PSS hybrid nanocomposite material in aqueous solution through direct current (DC) plasma processing at atmospheric pressure and room temperature has been demonstrated. The dispersion of the TiO2 nanoparticles is enhanced and TiO2/polymer hybrid nanoparticles with a distinct core shell structure have been obtained. Increased electrical conductivity was observed for the plasma treated TiO2/PEDOT:PSS nanocomposite. The improvement in nanocomposite properties is due to the enhanced dispersion and stability in liquid polymer of microplasma treated TiO2 nanoparticles. Both plasma induced surface charge and nanoparticle surface termination with specific plasma chemical species are proposed to provide an enhanced barrier to nanoparticle agglomeration and promote nanoparticle-polymer binding.

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A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.