The Coxian phase-type distribution as a contribution to the multilevel model of in-hospital mortality

This paper presents multilevel models that utilize the Coxian phase-type distribution in order to be able to include a survival component in the model. The approach is demonstrated by modeling patient length of stay and in-hospital mortality in geriatric wards in Italy. The multilevel model is used to provide a means of controlling for the existence of possible intra-ward correlations, which may make patients within a hospital more alike in terms of experienced outcome than patients coming from different hospitals, everything else being equal. Within this multilevel model we introduce the use of the Coxian phase-type distribution to create a covariate that represents patient length of stay or stage (of hospital care). Results demonstrate that the use of the multilevel model for representing the in-patient mortality is successful and further enhanced by the inclusion of the Coxian phase-type distribution variable (stage covariate).

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Medication Reconciliation at Discharge from Hospital: A Systematic Review of the Quantitative Literature

Medicines reconciliation is a way to identify and act on discrepancies in patients’ medical histories and it is found to play a key role in patient safety. This review focuses on discrepancies and medical errors that occurred at point of discharge from hospital. Studies were identified through the following electronic databases: PubMed, Sciences Direct, EMBASE, Google Scholar, Cochrane Reviews and CINAHL. Each of the six databases was screened from inception to end of January 2014. To determine eligibility of the studies; the title, abstract and full manuscript were screened to find 15 articles that meet the inclusion criteria. The median number of discrepancies across the articles was found to be 60%. In average patient had between 1.2–5.3 discrepancies when leaving the hospital. More studies also found a relation between the numbers of drugs a patient was on and the number of discrepancies. The variation in the number of discrepancies found in the 15 studies could be due to the fact that some studies excluded patient taking more than 5 drugs at admission. Medication reconciliation would be a way to avoid the high number of discrepancies that was found in this literature review and thereby increase patient safety.

Prevalence, Nature, Severity and Risk Factors for Prescribing Errors in Hospital Inpatients: Prospective Study in 20 UK Hospitals

Introduction: It has been suggested that doctors in their first year of post-graduate training make a disproportionate number of prescribing errors.

Obkective: This study aimed to compare the prevalence of prescribing errors made by first-year post-graduate doctors with that of errors by senior doctors and non-medical prescribers and to investigate the predictors of potentially serious prescribing errors.

Methods: Pharmacists in 20 hospitals over 7 prospectively selected days collected data on the number of medication orders checked, the grade of prescriber and details of any prescribing errors. Logistic regression models (adjusted for clustering by hospital) identified factors predicting the likelihood of prescribing erroneously and the severity of prescribing errors.

Results: Pharmacists reviewed 26,019 patients and 124,260 medication orders; 11,235 prescribing errors were detected in 10,986 orders. The mean error rate was 8.8 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.6-9.1) errors per 100 medication orders. Rates of errors for all doctors in training were significantly higher than rates for medical consultants. Doctors who were 1 year (odds ratio [OR] 2.13; 95 % CI 1.80-2.52) or 2 years in training (OR 2.23; 95 % CI 1.89-2.65) were more than twice as likely to prescribe erroneously. Prescribing errors were 70 % (OR 1.70; 95 % CI 1.61-1.80) more likely to occur at the time of hospital admission than when medication orders were issued during the hospital stay. No significant differences in severity of error were observed between grades of prescriber. Potentially serious errors were more likely to be associated with prescriptions for parenteral administration, especially for cardiovascular or endocrine disorders.

Conclusions: The problem of prescribing errors in hospitals is substantial and not solely a problem of the most junior medical prescribers, particularly for those errors most likely to cause significant patient harm. Interventions are needed to target these high-risk errors by all grades of staff and hence improve patient safety.

Physical rehabilitation interventions for adult intensive care patients across the continuum of recovery (i.e. within the intensive care unit (ICU) and following ICU and hospital discharge): an overview of systematic reviews

Background
Patients admitted to the intensive care unit with critical illness often experience significant physical impairments, which typically persist for many years following resolution of the original illness. Physical rehabilitation interventions that enhance restoration of physical function have been evaluated across the continuum of recovery following critical illness including within the intensive care unit, following discharge to the ward and beyond hospital discharge. Multiple systematic reviews have been published appraising the expanding evidence investigating these physical rehabilitation interventions, although there appears to be variability in review methodology and quality. We aim to conduct an overview of existing systematic reviews of physical rehabilitation interventions for adult intensive care patients across the continuum of recovery.

Methods/design
This protocol has been developed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol (PRISMA-P) guidelines. We will search the Cochrane Systematic Review Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases. We will include systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials of adult patients, admitted to the intensive care unit and who have received physical rehabilitation interventions at any time point during their recovery. Data extraction will include systematic review aims and rationale, study types, populations, interventions, comparators, outcomes and quality appraisal method. Primary outcomes of interest will focus on findings reflecting recovery of physical function. Quality of reporting and methodological quality will be appraised using the PRISMA checklist and the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews tool.

Discussion
We anticipate the findings from this novel overview of systematic reviews will contribute to the synthesis and interpretation of existing evidence regarding physical rehabilitation interventions and physical recovery in post-critical illness patients across the continuum of recovery.

Music for Mercer's: The Mercer's Hospital Music Collection and Charity Music in Eighteenth-Century Dublin

Account of benefit concerts in support of Mercer's Hospital, Dublin 1736-80 and an analysis of extant manuscript and printed music sources dating from c.1736-c.1771