POOR PERFORMANCE OF BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE LOCATION OF A QUANTITATIVE TRAIT LOUCS

The aim of many genetic studies is to locate the genomic regions (called quantitative trait loci, QTLs) that contribute to variation in a quantitative trait (such as body weight). Confidence intervals for the locations of QTLs are particularly important for the design of further experiments to identify the gene or genes responsible for the effect. Likelihood support intervals are the most widely used method to obtain confidence intervals for QTL location, but the non-parametric bootstrap has also been recommended. Through extensive computer simulation, we show that bootstrap confidence intervals are poorly behaved and so should not be used in this context. The profile likelihood (or LOD curve) for QTL location has a tendency to peak at genetic markers, and so the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of QTL location has the unusual feature of point masses at genetic markers; this contributes to the poor behavior of the bootstrap. Likelihood support intervals and approximate Bayes credible intervals, on the other hand, are shown to behave appropriately.

Studying Effects of Primary Care Physicians and Patients on the Trade-Off Between Charges for Primary Care and Specialty Care Using a Hierarchical Multivariate Two-Part Model

Objective. To examine effects of primary care physicians (PCPs) and patients on the association between charges for primary care and specialty care in a point-of-service (POS) health plan. Data Source. Claims from 1996 for 3,308 adult male POS plan members, each of whom was assigned to one of the 50 family practitioner-PCPs with the largest POS plan member-loads. Study Design. A hierarchical multivariate two-part model was fitted using a Gibbs sampler to estimate PCPs' effects on patients' annual charges for two types of services, primary care and specialty care, the associations among PCPs' effects, and within-patient associations between charges for the two services. Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs) were used to adjust for case-mix. Principal Findings. PCPs with higher case-mix adjusted rates of specialist use were less likely to see their patients at least once during the year (estimated correlation: –.40; 95% CI: –.71, –.008) and provided fewer services to patients that they saw (estimated correlation: –.53; 95% CI: –.77, –.21). Ten of 11 PCPs whose case-mix adjusted effects on primary care charges were significantly less than or greater than zero (p < .05) had estimated, case-mix adjusted effects on specialty care charges that were of opposite sign (but not significantly different than zero). After adjustment for ACG and PCP effects, the within-patient, estimated odds ratio for any use of primary care given any use of specialty care was .57 (95% CI: .45, .73). Conclusions. PCPs and patients contributed independently to a trade-off between utilization of primary care and specialty care. The trade-off appeared to partially offset significant differences in the amount of care provided by PCPs. These findings were possible because we employed a hierarchical multivariate model rather than separate univariate models.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SPATIAL MODELING OF fMRI DATA

Functional neuroimaging techniques enable investigations into the neural basis of human cognition, emotions, and behaviors. In practice, applications of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have provided novel insights into the neuropathophysiology of major psychiatric,neurological, and substance abuse disorders, as well as into the neural responses to their treatments. Modern activation studies often compare localized task-induced changes in brain activity between experimental groups. One may also extend voxel-level analyses by simultaneously considering the ensemble of voxels constituting an anatomically defined region of interest (ROI) or by considering means or quantiles of the ROI. In this work we present a Bayesian extension of voxel-level analyses that offers several notable benefits. First, it combines whole-brain voxel-by-voxel modeling and ROI analyses within a unified framework. Secondly, an unstructured variance/covariance for regional mean parameters allows for the study of inter-regional functional connectivity, provided enough subjects are available to allow for accurate estimation. Finally, an exchangeable correlation structure within regions allows for the consideration of intra-regional functional connectivity. We perform estimation for our model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques implemented via Gibbs sampling which, despite the high throughput nature of the data, can be executed quickly (less than 30 minutes). We apply our Bayesian hierarchical model to two novel fMRI data sets: one considering inhibitory control in cocaine-dependent men and the second considering verbal memory in subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease. The unifying hierarchical model presented in this manuscript is shown to enhance the interpretation content of these data sets.

Polymorphism and chromosomal location of the MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor) gene in the dog and red fox

The melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) is expressed in the hypothalamus and regulates energy intake and body weight. In silico screening of the canine chromosome 1 sequence and a comparison with the porcine MC4R sequence by BLAST were performed. The nucleotide sequence of the whole coding region and 3'- and 5'-flanking regions of the dog (1214 bp) and red fox (1177 bp) MC4R gene was established and high conservation of the nucleotide sequences was revealed (99%). Five sets of PCR primers were designed and a search for polymorphism was performed by the SSCP technique in a group of 31 dogs representing nineteen breeds and 35 farm red foxes. Sequencing of DNA fragments, representing the identified SSCP patterns, revealed three single nucleotide polymorphisms (including a missense one) in dogs and four silent SNPs in red foxes. An average SNP frequency was approx. 1/400 bp in the dog and 1/300 bp in the red fox. We mapped the MC4R gene by FISH to the canine chromosome 1 (CFA1q1.1) and to the red fox chromosome 5 (VVU5p1.2).

Comparative quantitative assessment of GnRH- and LH-receptor mRNA expression in the urinary tract of sexually intact and spayed female dogs

Ovariectomy interrupts the regulatory loop in the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonad axis, leading to a several-fold increase in gonadotropin levels. This rise in hormonal secretion may play a causal role in ovariectomy-related urinary incontinence. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of ovariectomy in bitches on the expression of GnRH- and LH-receptors in the lower urinary tract, and assess the relationship between receptor expression and plasma gonadotropin concentrations. Plasma gonadotropins were measured in 37 client-owned bitches. Biopsies were harvested from the mid-ventral bladder wall in all dogs, and from nine further locations within the lower urinary tract in 17 of the 37 animals. Messenger RNA of the LH and GnRH receptors was quantified using RT-PCR with the TaqMan Universal PCR Master Mix. Gonadotropins were measured with a canine-specific FSH-immunoradiometric assay and LH-radioimmunoassay. The hierarchical mixed ANOVA model using MINITAB, Mann-Whitney U-test, unpaired means comparison and linear regressions using StatView were applied for statistical analyses. Messenger RNA for both receptors was detected in all biopsy samples. Age was negatively correlated to mRNA expression of the LH and the GnRH receptors. A relationship between the mRNA values and the plasma gonadotropin concentrations was not established. Evaluation of results within each of the biopsy locations revealed greater LH-receptor expression in the proximal second quarter of the urethra in spayed bitches than in intact bitches (P=0.0481). Increased mRNA expression of LH receptors in this location could possibly play a role in the decrease in closing pressure of the urethra following ovariectomy.

Pleomorphic adenoma in an atypical location near the temporomandibular joint: a case report

Pleomorphic adenomas primarily arise in the major salivary glands, especially in the parotid. The most common area is the lower pole superficial to the plane of the facial nerve. In this report, a pleomorphic adenoma in an atypical location--the region of the temporomandibular joint (TMJ)--is presented. The tumor was solitary, closely attached to the capsule of the TMJ and superior to the parotid gland, with clear demarcation. Clinically, the tumor resembled TMJ pathology, but MRI examination led to diagnosis of a benign tumor attached to the TMJ. This report shows that pleomorphic adenoma can be a possible diagnosis for lesions at the joint capsule.

Quantitative (1)H magnetic resonance spectroscopy of myoglobin de- and reoxygenation in skeletal muscle: reproducibility and effects of location and disease

1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H-MRS) of deoxymyoglobin (DMb) provides a means to noninvasively monitor the oxygenation state of human skeletal muscle in work and disease. As shown in this work, it also offers the opportunity to measure the absolute tissue content of DMb, the basic oxygen consumption of resting muscle, and the reperfusion characteristics after release of a pressure cuff. The methodology to determine these tissue properties simultaneously at two positions along the calf is presented. The obtained values are in agreement with invasive determinations. The reproducibility of the (1)H-MRS measurements is established for healthy controls and patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). A location dependence in axial direction, as well as differences between controls and patients are demonstrated for all parameters. The reoxygenation time in particular is expected to provide a means to quantitatively monitor therapies aimed at improving muscular perfusion in these patients.

Resource management in location aware cognitive radio networks

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) aims at utilizing spectral opportunities both in time and frequency domains at any given location, which arise due to variations in spectrum usage. Recently, Cognitive radios (CRs) have been proposed as a means of implementing DSA. In this work we focus on the aspect of resource management in overlaid CRNs. We formulate resource allocation strategies for cognitive radio networks (CRNs) as mathematical optimization problems. Specifically, we focus on two key problems in resource management: Sum Rate Maximization and Maximization of Number of Admitted Users. Since both the above mentioned problems are NP hard due to presence of binary assignment variables, we propose novel graph based algorithms to optimally solve these problems. Further, we analyze the impact of location awareness on network performance of CRNs by considering three cases: Full location Aware, Partial location Aware and Non location Aware. Our results clearly show that location awareness has significant impact on performance of overlaid CRNs and leads to increase in spectrum utilization effciency.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.