Repeated Interaction and the Revelation of the Monitor's Type: A Principal-Monitor-Agent Problem

This paper studies a dynamic principal-monitor-agent relation where a strategic principal delegates the task of monitoring the effort of a strategic agent to a third party. The latter we call the monitor, whose type is initially unknown. Through repeated interaction the agent might learn his type. We show that this process damages the principal's payoffs. Compensation is assumed exogenous, limiting to a great extent the provision of incentives. We go around this difficulty by introducing costly replacement strategies, i.e. the principal replaces the monitor, thus disrupting the agent's learning. We found that even when replacement costs are null, if the revealed monitor is strictly preferred by both parties, there is a loss in efficiency due to the impossibility of bene…tting from it. Nonetheless, these strategies can partially recover the principal's losses. Additionally, we establish upper and lower bounds on the payoffs that the principal and the agent can achieve. Finally we characterize the equilibrium strategies under public and private monitoring (with communication) for different cost and impatience levels.

Influence of CRTC1 Polymorphisms on Body Mass Index and Fat Mass in Psychiatric Patients and the General Adult Population.

IMPORTANCE There is a high prevalence of obesity in psychiatric patients, possibly leading to metabolic complications and reducing life expectancy. The CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) gene is involved in energy balance and obesity in animal models, but its role in human obesity is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether polymorphisms within the CRTC1 gene are associated with adiposity markers in psychiatric patients and the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective and prospective data analysis and population-based samples at Lausanne and Geneva university hospitals in Switzerland and a private clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland. The effect of 3 CRTC1 polymorphisms on body mass index (BMI) and/or fat mass was investigated in a discovery cohort of psychiatric outpatients taking weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs (sample 1, n = 152). The CRTC1 variant that was significantly associated with BMI and survived Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparison was then replicated in 2 independent psychiatric samples (sample 2, n = 174 and sample 3, n = 118) and 2 white population-based samples (sample 4, n = 5338 and sample 5, n = 123 865). INTERVENTION Noninterventional studies. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Difference in BMI and/or fat mass between CRTC1 genotype groups. RESULTS Among the CRTC1 variants tested in the first psychiatric sample, only rs3746266A>G was associated with BMI (Padjusted = .003). In the 3 psychiatric samples, carriers of the rs3746266 G allele had a lower BMI than noncarriers (AA genotype) (sample 1, P = .001; sample 2, P = .05; and sample 3, P = .0003). In the combined analysis, excluding patients taking other weight gain-inducing drugs, G allele carriers (n = 98) had a 1.81-kg/m2 lower BMI than noncarriers (n = 226; P < .0001). The strongest association was observed in women younger than 45 years, with a 3.87-kg/m2 lower BMI in G allele carriers (n = 25) compared with noncarriers (n = 48; P < .0001), explaining 9% of BMI variance. In the population-based samples, the T allele of rs6510997C>T (a proxy of the rs3746266 G allele; r2 = 0.7) was associated with lower BMI (sample 5, n = 123 865; P = .01) and fat mass (sample 4, n = 5338; P = .03). The strongest association with fat mass was observed in premenopausal women (n = 1192; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that CRTC1 contributes to the genetics of human obesity in psychiatric patients and the general population. Identification of high-risk subjects could contribute to a better individualization of the pharmacological treatment in psychiatry.

Metabolic Post-feeding Changes in Fat Body and Hemolymph of Dipetalogaster maximus (Hemiptera:Reduviidae)

Lipids and glycogen in fat body as well as the modifications in the wet weight of this organ were evaluated in an unfed insect, Dipetalogaster maximus, on day 5 after adult ecdysis (time 0) and during a 30-day period after ingestion of blood meal. Total lipids, high density lipophorin (HDLp), carbohydrates, total proteins and uric acid were determined in the hemolymph during the same period. Fat body wet weight was maximum on day 10 post-feeding and represented on day 30 only 42% of the maximum weight. Lipids stored in the fat body increased up to day 15 reaching 24% of the total weight of tissue. Glycogen was maximum on day 20, representing approximately 3% of the fat body weight. HDLp represented at all times between 17-24% of the total proteins, whose levels ranged between 35 and 47 mg/ml. Uric acid showed at 20, 25 and 30 days similar levels and significantly higher than the ones shown at days 10 and 15. Hemolymphatic lipids fluctuated during starvation between 3-4.4 mg/ml and carbohydrates showed a maximum on day 15 after a blood meal, decreasing up to 0.26 mg/ml on day 25. The above results suggest that during physiological events such as starvation, the availability of nutrients is affected, involving principally the fat body reserves

The problem of the competitiveness of nuclear energy: a biophysical explanation

In this study I try to explain the systemic problem of the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy for the production of electricity by carrying out a biophysical analysis of its production process. Given the fact that neither econometric approaches nor onedimensional methods of energy analyses are effective, I introduce the concept of biophysical explanation as a quantitative analysis capable of handling the inherent ambiguity associated with the concept of energy. In particular, the quantities of energy, considered as relevant for the assessment, can only be measured and aggregated after having agreed on a pre-analytical definition of a grammar characterizing a given set of finite transformations. Using this grammar it becomes possible to provide a biophysical explanation for the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity. When comparing the various unit operations of the process of production of electricity with nuclear energy to the analogous unit operations of the process of production of fossil energy, we see that the various phases of the process are the same. The only difference is related to characteristics of the process associated with the generation of heat which are completely different in the two systems. Since the cost of production of fossil energy provides the base line of economic competitiveness of electricity, the (lack of) economic competitiveness of the production of electricity from nuclear energy can be studied, by comparing the biophysical costs associated with the different unit operations taking place in nuclear and fossil power plants when generating process heat or net electricity. In particular, the analysis focuses on fossil-fuel requirements and labor requirements for those phases that both nuclear plants and fossil energy plants have in common: (i) mining; (ii) refining/enriching; (iii) generating heat/electricity; (iv) handling the pollution/radioactive wastes. By adopting this approach, it becomes possible to explain the systemic low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity, because of: (i) its dependence on oil, limiting its possible role as a carbon-free alternative; (ii) the choices made in relation to its fuel cycle, especially whether it includes reprocessing operations or not; (iii) the unavoidable uncertainty in the definition of the characteristics of its process; (iv) its large inertia (lack of flexibility) due to issues of time scale; and (v) its low power level.

Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.

Long-term stability of retinal function despite retained intraocular metallic foreign body.

BACKGROUND: Persisting metallic intraocular foreign bodies (IOFB) with a ferrous content have been associated with ocular siderosis and retinal degeneration. We describe two patients in whom a metallic IOFB containing iron was left embedded for many years in the choroid and sclera after having penetrated through the vitreous and the retina. HISTORY AND SIGNS: Two male patients, aged 41 and 48 years, presented with a metallic IOFB sustained during a work accident involving metal tools. THERAPY AND OUTCOME: For the first patient it was deemed unwise to operate, as the IOFB was also lodged very deeply in the choroid and sclera in the inferior temporal quadrant. The second patient underwent pars plana vitrectomy, but the IOFB could not be removed surgically as it was too deeply embedded in the sclera and choroid. After a period of 6 years (Case 1) and 4 years (Case 2) of follow-up, visual acuity remained at 1.0 and the IOFB was encased in a fibrotic capsule in both cases. Full-field and multifocal electroretinograms showed an inter-ocular asymmetry at baseline, which remained stable during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Ocular siderosis may not develop in patients with a deeply embedded metallic IOFB. Regular monitoring of both visual function and the electroretinogram is mandatory when the IOFB is left inside the eye.

Effect of vaccination against gonadotrophin-releasing hormone, using Improvac®, on growth performance, body composition, behaviour and acute phase proteins

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vaccination against GnRH on performance traits, pig behaviour and acute phase proteins. A total of 120 pigs (36 non-castrated males, NCM; 36 males to be vaccinated, IM; 24 castratedmales, CM; and 24 females, FE)were controlled in groups of 12 in pens with feeding stations allowing the recording of individual feed intake. The two vaccinations (Improvac®) were applied at a mean age of 77 and 146 days. All pigswere individually weighed every 3 weeks from the mean ages of 74 to 176 days and backfat thickness (BT) and loinmuscle depth (LD) were also recorded ultrasonically. Twelve group-housed pigs for each treatment were video recorded during 2 consecutive days at weeks 9, 11, 20, 21, 23 and 25 of age to score the number of inactive or active pigs in each treatment group by scan sampling. Aggressive behaviour by the feeder and away from the feeder, and mounting behaviour was also scored by focal sampling. Blood samples from 12 NCM, 12 CM and 12 IM were taken to determine the concentration of circulating acute phase protein Pig-MAP atweeks 1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 21 and 25 of age. After slaughter, the number of skin lesions on the left half carcasswas scored. IMpresented overall a higher growth rate and daily feed intake compared to NCM (Pb0.05),whereas their feed conversion ratios did not differ significantly. In comparison with CM, IM presented a better feed conversion ratio (Pb0.05), since their overall dailyweight gaindid not differ significantly, butIM ate less. Final leanmeat percentage of IM and CM was lower compared to that of NCM (Pb0.05). Activity, mounting and aggressive behaviour of NCM was higher than in IM, CM and FE after the second vaccination. Pig-MAP concentrationswere significantly elevated just after surgical castrationand after bothadministrations of the vaccine (Pb0.05), but concentrations subsequently decreased throughout time. Skin lesions of NCM were significantly higher compared to that of IM and FE (Pb0.05). The effects of vaccination were especially remarkable after the second dose, when the higher feed intake and lower activity of IM compared to NCMmight result in higher final body weight and more fat. Results from this study indicate that some welfare aspects such as a reduced aggression and mounting behaviour may be improved by vaccination against GnRH, together with productive benefits like adequate feed conversion ratio and daily weight gain.

The Body Action and Posture Coding System (BAP): Development and Reliability

Several methods are available for coding body movement in nonverbal behavior research, but there is no consensus on a reliable coding system that can be used for the study of emotion expression. Adopting an integrative approach, we developed a new method, the Body Action and Posture (BAP) coding system, for the time-aligned micro description of body movement on an anatomical level (different articulations of body parts), a form level (direction and orientation of movement), and a functional level (communicative and self-regulatory functions). We applied the system to a new corpus of acted emotion portrayals, examined its comprehensiveness and demonstrated intercoder reliability at three levels: a) occurrence, b) temporal precision and c) segmentation. We discuss issues for further validation and propose some research applications.

Major impact of body position on arterial stiffness indices derived from radial applanation tonometry in pregnant and nonpregnant women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of body position on the arterial stiffness indices provided by radial applanation tonometry in pregnant and nonpregnant women. METHODS: Twenty-four young women (18-30 years) in the third trimester of a normal pregnancy and 20 healthy nonpregnant women of the same age were enrolled. In each, applanation tonometry was carried out in the sitting and supine position. The following stiffness indices were analyzed: systolic augmentation index (sAix), sAix adjusted for heart rate (sAix@75) and diastolic augmentation index (dAix), all expressed in % of central aortic pulse pressure. RESULTS: The sAix was apparently not influenced by body position, but the transition from seated to supine was associated with a substantial decrease in heart rate. When correcting for this confounder by calculating the sAix@75, systolic augmentation was substantially lower when individuals were supine (mean ± SD: nonpregnant 3.0 ± 14.4%, pregnant 8.8 ± 9.7%) than when they were sitting (nonpregnant 5.7 ± 13.0%, pregnant 11.1 ± 83%, P = 0.005 supine vs. seated in both study groups, P > 0.2 for pregnant vs. nonpregnant). The influence of body position on the dAix went in the opposite direction (supine: nonpregnant 9.7 ± 6.6%, pregnant 4.4 ± 3.5%; seated: nonpregnant 7.7 ± 5.8%, pregnant 3.3 ± 2.4%, P < 0.00001 supine vs. seated in both study groups, P = 0.001 for pregnant vs. nonpregnant). CONCLUSION: Body position has a major impact on the pattern of central aortic pressure augmentation by reflected waves in healthy young women examined either during third trimester pregnancy or in the nonpregnant state.

A 600 kb deletion syndrome at 16p11.2 leads to energy imbalance and neuropsychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: The recurrent ~600 kb 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 deletion is among the most frequent known genetic aetiologies of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and related neurodevelopmental disorders. OBJECTIVE: To define the medical, neuropsychological, and behavioural phenotypes in carriers of this deletion. METHODS: We collected clinical data on 285 deletion carriers and performed detailed evaluations on 72 carriers and 68 intrafamilial non-carrier controls. RESULTS: When compared to intrafamilial controls, full scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) is two standard deviations lower in carriers, and there is no difference between carriers referred for neurodevelopmental disorders and carriers identified through cascade family testing. Verbal IQ (mean 74) is lower than non-verbal IQ (mean 83) and a majority of carriers require speech therapy. Over 80% of individuals exhibit psychiatric disorders including ASD, which is present in 15% of the paediatric carriers. Increase in head circumference (HC) during infancy is similar to the HC and brain growth patterns observed in idiopathic ASD. Obesity, a major comorbidity present in 50% of the carriers by the age of 7 years, does not correlate with FSIQ or any behavioural trait. Seizures are present in 24% of carriers and occur independently of other symptoms. Malformations are infrequently found, confirming only a few of the previously reported associations. CONCLUSIONS: The 16p11.2 deletion impacts in a quantitative and independent manner FSIQ, behaviour and body mass index, possibly through direct influences on neural circuitry. Although non-specific, these features are clinically significant and reproducible. Lastly, this study demonstrates the necessity of studying large patient cohorts ascertained through multiple methods to characterise the clinical consequences of rare variants involved in common diseases.

Thyroid function and prevalent and incident metabolic syndrome in older adults: the Health, Ageing and Body Composition Study.

OBJECTIVE: Both subclinical hypothyroidism and the metabolic syndrome have been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease events. It is unknown whether the prevalence and incidence of metabolic syndrome is higher as TSH levels increase, or in individuals with subclinical hypothyroidism. We sought to determine the association between thyroid function and the prevalence and incidence of the metabolic syndrome in a cohort of older adults. DESIGN: Data were analysed from the Health, Ageing and Body Composition Study, a prospective cohort of 3075 community-dwelling US adults. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand one hundred and nineteen participants with measured TSH and data on metabolic syndrome components were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: TSH was measured by immunoassay. Metabolic syndrome was defined per revised ATP III criteria. RESULTS: At baseline, 684 participants met criteria for metabolic syndrome. At 6-year follow-up, incident metabolic syndrome developed in 239 individuals. In fully adjusted models, each unit increase in TSH was associated with a 3% increase in the odds of prevalent metabolic syndrome (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; P = 0.02), and the association was stronger for TSH within the normal range (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.30; P = 0.02). Subclinical hypothyroidism with a TSH > 10 mIU/l was significantly associated with increased odds of prevalent metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.0-5.0; P = 0.04); the odds of incident MetS was similar (OR 2.2), but the confidence interval was wide (0.6-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: Higher TSH levels and subclinical hypothyroidism with a TSH > 10 mIU/l are associated with increased odds of prevalent but not incident metabolic syndrome.

Complete nucleotide sequence analysis of a Brazilian dengue virus type 2 strain

In the last decade, dengue fever (DF) in Brazil has been recognized as an important public health problem, and an increasing number of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases have been reported since the introduction of dengue virus type 2 (DEN-2) into the country in 1990. In order to analyze the complete genome sequence of a DEN-2 Brazilian strain (BR64022/98), we designed primers to amplify contiguous segments of approximately 500 base pairs across the entire sequence of the viral genome. Twenty fragments amplified by reverse transcriptase-PCR were cloned, and the complete nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences were determined. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a DEN-2 strain from Brazil. All amino acid changes differentiating strains related to the Asian/American-Asian genotype were observed in BR64022/98, indicating the Asiatic origin of the strain.

Report of the National Taskforce on Obesity: Obesity - the policy challenges: Executive Summary

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Obesity - the policy challenges: The report of the National Taskforce on Obesity

Click here to download PDF The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.