985 resultados para financial modelling


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A four compartment model of the cardiovascular system is developed. To allow for easy interpretation and to minimise the number of parameters, an effort was made to keep the model as simple as possible. A sensitivity analysis is first carried out to determine which are the most important model parameters to characterise the blood pressure signal. A four stage process is then described which accurately determines all parameter values. This process is applied to data from three patients and good agreement is shown in all cases.

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One of the world's largest wollastonite deposits was formed at the contact of the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (California, USA) in Paleozoic sediments. Wollastonite occurs as zones of variable thickness surrounding layers or nodules of quartzite in limestones. A minimum formation temperature of 650 degrees C is estimated from isolated periclase-bearing lenses in that area. Contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonates has produced mineral assemblages that are consistent with heterogeneous, and partly limited infiltration of water-rich fluids, compatible with O-18/O-16 and C-13/C-12 isotopic patterns recorded in carbonates. Oxygen isotope compositions of wollastonites in the study area may also not require infiltration of large quantities of externally-derived fluids that were out of equilibrium with the rocks. 8180 values of wollastonite are high (14.8 parts per thousand to 25.0 parts per thousand; median: 19.7 parts per thousand) and close to those of the host limestone (19.7 parts per thousand to 28 parts per thousand; median: 24.9 parts per thousand) and quartz (18.0 parts per thousand. to 29.1 parts per thousand; median: 22.6 parts per thousand). Isotopic disequilibrium exists at quartz/wollastonite and wollastonite/calcite boundaries. Therefore, classical batch/Rayleigh fractionation models based on reactant and product equilibrium are not applicable to the wollastonite rims. An approach that relies on local instantaneous mass balance for the reactants, based on the wollastonite-forming reaction is suggested as an alternative way to model wollastonite reaction rims. This model reproduces many of the measured delta O-18 values of wollastonite reaction rims of the current study to within +/- 1 parts per thousand, even though the wollastonite compositions vary by almost 10 parts per thousand. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

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ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

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Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

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Nessie is an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) created by a team of students in the Heriot Watt University to compete in the Student Autonomous Underwater Competition, Europe (SAUC-E) in August 2006. The main objective of the project is to find the dynamic equation of the robot, dynamic model. With it, the behaviour of the robot will be easier to understand and movement tests will be available by computer without the need of the robot, what is a way to save time, batteries, money and the robot from water inside itself. The object of the second part in this project is setting a control system for Nessie by using the model

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Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints.

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Financial Safety Planning for Older Women

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Pathogen inactivation of blood products represents a global and major paradigm shift in transfusion medicine. In the next near future, it is likely that most blood products will be inactivated by various physicochemical approaches. The concept of blood safety will be challenged as well as transfusion medicine practice, notably for donor selection or biological qualification. In this context, it seems mandatory to develop analytical economic approaches by assessing costs-benefits ratio of blood transfusion as well as to set up cohorts of patients based on hemovigilance networks allowing rigorous scientific analysis of the benefits and the risks of blood transfusion at short- and long-term.

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Not considered in the analytical model of the plant, uncertainties always dramatically decrease the performance of the fault detection task in the practice. To cope better with this prevalent problem, in this paper we develop a methodology using Modal Interval Analysis which takes into account those uncertainties in the plant model. A fault detection method is developed based on this model which is quite robust to uncertainty and results in no false alarm. As soon as a fault is detected, an ANFIS model is trained in online to capture the major behavior of the occurred fault which can be used for fault accommodation. The simulation results understandably demonstrate the capability of the proposed method for accomplishing both tasks appropriately