865 resultados para extended regime-switching GARCH
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This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.
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Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014
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Cyanobacteria are the only prokaryotic organisms performing oxygenic photosynthesis. They comprise a diverse and versatile group of organisms in aquatic and terrestrial environments. Increasing genomic and proteomic data launches wide possibilities for their employment in various biotechnical applications. For example, cyanobacteria can use solar energy to produce H2. There are three different enzymes that are directly involved in cyanobacterial H2 metabolism: nitrogenase (nif) which produces hydrogen as a byproduct in nitrogen fixation; bidirectional hydrogenase (hox) which functions both in uptake and in production of H2; and uptake hydrogenase (hup) which recycles the H2 produced by nitrogenase back for the utilization of the cell. Cyanobacterial strains from University of Helsinki Cyanobacteria Collection (UHCC), isolated from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes were screened for efficient H2 producers. Screening about 400 strains revealed several promising candidates producing similar amounts of H2 (during light) as the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120, which is specifically engineered to produce higher amounts of H2 by the interruption of uptake hydrogenase. The optimal environmental conditions for H2 photoproduction were significantly different between various cyanobacterial strains. All suitable strains revealed during screening were N2-fixing, filamentous and heterocystous. The top ten H2 producers were characterized for the presence and activity of the enzymes involved in H2 metabolism. They all possess the genes encoding the conventional nitrogenase (nifHDK1). However, the high H2 photoproduction rates of these strains were shown not to be directly associated with the maximum capacities of highly active nitrogenase or bidirectional hydrogenase. Most of the good producers possessed a highly active uptake hydrogenase, which has been considered as an obstacle for efficient H2 production. Among the newly revealed best H2 producing strains, Calothrix 336/3 was chosen for further, detailed characterization. Comparative analysis of the structure of the nif and hup operons encoding the nitrogenase and uptake hydrogenase enzymes respectively showed minor differences between Calothrix 336/3 and other N2-fixing model cyanobacteria. Calothrix 336/3 is a filamentous, N2-fixing cyanobacterium with ellipsoidal, terminal heterocysts. A common feature of Calothrix 336/3 is that the cells readily adhere to substrates. To make use of this feature, and to additionally improve H2 photoproduction capacity of the Calothrix 336/3 strain, an immobilization technique was applied. The effects of immobilization within thin alginate films were evaluated by examining the photoproduction of H2 of immobilized Calothrix 336/3 in comparison to model strains, the Anabaena PCC 7120 and its ΔhupL mutant. In order to achieve optimal H2 photoproduction, cells were kept under nitrogen starved conditions (Ar atmosphere) to ensure the selective function of nitrogenase in reducing protons to H2. For extended H2 photoproduction, cells require CO2 for maintenance of photosynthetic activity and recovery cycles to fix N2. Application of regular H2 production and recovery cycles, Ar or air atmospheres respectively, resulted in prolongation of H2 photoproduction in both Calothrix 336/3 and the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120. However, recovery cycles, consisting of air supplemented with CO2, induced a strong C/N unbalance in the ΔhupL mutant leading to a decrease in photosynthetic activity, although total H2 yield was still higher compared to the wild-type strain. My findings provide information about the diversity of cyanobacterial H2 capacities and mechanisms and provide knowledge of the possibilities of further enhancing cyanobacterial H2 production.
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Verbal fluency tests are used as a measure of executive functions and language, and can also be used to evaluate semantic memory. We analyzed the influence of education, gender and age on scores in a verbal fluency test using the animal category, and on number of categories, clustering and switching. We examined 257 healthy participants (152 females and 105 males) with a mean age of 49.42 years (SD = 15.75) and having a mean educational level of 5.58 (SD = 4.25) years. We asked them to name as many animals as they could. Analysis of variance was performed to determine the effect of demographic variables. No significant effect of gender was observed for any of the measures. However, age seemed to influence the number of category changes, as expected for a sensitive frontal measure, after being controlled for the effect of education. Educational level had a statistically significant effect on all measures, except for clustering. Subject performance (mean number of animals named) according to schooling was: illiterates, 12.1; 1 to 4 years, 12.3; 5 to 8 years, 14.0; 9 to 11 years, 16.7, and more than 11 years, 17.8. We observed a decrease in performance in these five educational groups over time (more items recalled during the first 15 s, followed by a progressive reduction until the fourth interval). We conclude that education had the greatest effect on the category fluency test in this Brazilian sample. Therefore, we must take care in evaluating performance in lower educational subjects.
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The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.
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Our objective was to determine if automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) leads to changes in nutritional parameters of patients treated by continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). Twenty-six patients (15 males; 50.5 ± 14.3 years) were evaluated during CAPD while training for APD and after 3 and 6 months of APD. Body fat was assessed by the sum of skinfold thickness and the other body compartments were assessed by bioelectrical impedance. During the 6-month follow-up, 12 patients gained more than 1 kg (GW group), 8 patients lost more than 1 kg (LW group), and 6 patients maintained body weight (MW group). Except for length on dialysis that was longer for the LW group compared with the GW group, no other differences were found between the groups at baseline. After 6 months on APD, the LW group had a reduction in body fat (24.5 ± 7.7 vs 22.1 ± 7.3 kg; P = 0.01), body cell mass (22.6 ± 6.2 vs 21.6 ± 5.8 kg, P = 0.02) and phase angle (5.4 ± 0.9 vs 5.1 ± 0.8 degrees, P = 0.004). In the GW group, body fat (25 ± 7.6 vs 27.2 ± 7.6 kg, P = 0.001) and body cell mass (20.1 ± 3.9 vs 20.8 ± 4.0 kg, P = 0.05) were increased. In the present study, different patterns of change in body composition were found. The length of previous dialysis treatment seems to be the most important factor in determining these nutritional modifications.
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Foram determinadas experimentalmente em regime permanente a difusividade e a condutividade térmica de materiais biológicos. O equipamento com termopares de Cobre-Constantan dispostos radialmente no interior do cilindro conectados a uma unidade registradora de dados acoplados a um microcomputador fornece a leitura das temperaturas dos termopares. Os valores obtidos de difusividade (1,12x10-4 m2/s) e condutividade térmica (0,138W/moC) para o trigo (Triticum aestivum) e os valores de difusividade (1,67x10-4 m2/s) e condutividade térmica (0,122W/moC) para o arroz em casca (Orysa sativa)concordam com os valores encontrados nos ASAE STANDARTS [1], demonstrando a funcionalidade do equipamento.
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This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.
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This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.
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Exchange rate regime and structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. This article proposes an analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regime and evolution of the Brazilian manufacturing industry during the period 1980-2008. Its main purpose is to detect the direction of the structural changes imposed by the new form of international insertion consolidated throughout the 1990s. The work also provides new empirical evidence regarding the assumptions of deindustrialization and "Dutch disease", which mark the current debate on the effects of the appreciation of real exchange rate in the Brazilian economy.
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Commençant par : « Regnabit rex, etc. Le glorieux prophete Jheremie, qui fist le livre des Lamentations et pleurs sur la destruction des Juifz... » et finissant par : «... qui en trinité parfaicte vist et regne par l'infini siecle des siecles. An. Cy fine le livre de l'Informacion des princes » .
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The perovskite crystal structure is host to many different materials from insulating to superconducting providing a diverse range of intrinsic character and complexity. A better fundamental description of these materials in terms of their electronic, optical and magnetic properties undoubtedly precedes an effective realization of their application potential. SmTiOa, a distorted perovskite has a strongly localized electronic structure and undergoes an antiferromagnetic transition at 50 K in its nominally stoichiometric form. Sr2Ru04 is a layered perovskite superconductor (ie. Tc % 1 K) bearing the same structure as the high-tem|>erature superconductor La2_xSrrCu04. Polarized reflectance measurements were carried out on both of these materials revealing several interesting features in the far-infrared range of the spectrum. In the case of SmTiOa, although insulating, evidence indicates the presence of a finite background optical conductivity. As the temperature is lowered through the ordering temperature a resonance feature appears to narrow and strengthen near 120 cm~^ A nearby phonon mode appears to also couple to this magnetic transition as revealed by a growing asymmetry in the optica] conductivity. Experiments on a doped sample with a greater itinerant character and lower Neel temperature = 40 K also indicate the presence of this strongly temperature dependent mode even at twice the ordering temperature. Although the mode appears to be sensitive to the magnetic transition it is unclear whether a magnon assignment is appropriate. At very least, evidence suggests an interesting interaction between magnetic and electronic excitations. Although Sr2Ru04 is highly anisotropic it is metallic in three-dimensions at low temperatures and reveals its coherent transport in an inter-plane Drude-like component to the highest temperatures measured (ie. 90 K). An extended Drude analysis is used to probe the frequency dependent scattering character revealing a peak in both the mass enhancement and scattering rate near 80 cm~* and 100 cm~* respectively. All of these experimental observations appear relatively consistent with a Fermi-liquid picture of charge transport. To supplement the optical measurements a resistivity station was set up with an event driven object oriented user interface. The program controls a Keithley Current Source, HP Nano-Voltmeter and Switching Unit as well as a LakeShore Temperature Controller in order to obtain a plot of the Resistivity as a function of temperature. The system allows for resistivity measurements ranging from 4 K to 290 K using an external probe or between 0.4 K to 295 K using a Helium - 3 Cryostat. Several materials of known resistivity have confirmed the system to be robust and capable of measuring metallic samples distinguishing features of several fiQ-cm.
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Identification of larval simuliids has always been difficult due to the morphological similarity many species bear to one another. For this reason all characters available have been drawn upon to aid in species identification, including head fan ray number. Even in light of an increasing body of anecdotal reports that head fan ray number is not fixed, it has continued to be used to aid species identification. In the current experiment simuliid larvae were reared under controlled laboratory conditions to last instar in one of three feeding regimes. Out of nine trials, the results of six showed a significant inverse relationship between feeding regime and head fan ray number. In addition to the laboratory experiments, larvae were also collected from the field over the course of the spring and summer, 1994. From these samples significant interspecific and intraspecific variations in head fan ray number were found both spatially and temporally within Algonquin Park. From these data it is concluded that head fan ray number for the species analysed is a developmentally plastic character, which varies in response to food availability. Furthermore, given the extreme variations in head fan ray number found in some species, I recommend that head fan ray number not be used as an aid to identification unless it can be shown to be a fixed character for the species in question.