Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Herbicides to control poisonous Pimelea species (Thymelaeaceae)

Pimelea poisoning is an ongoing, periodically serious problem for cattle producers in inland Australia. The annual native plants of the Thymelaeaceae family that cause the problem are widespread and animal management is currently the main means of minimizing poisoning. However, there are situations in the higher rainfall parts of the natural distribution area of these plants where farming and quite intensive property development do occur and here the use of selective herbicides may be an option. This research looked for herbicides that could be considered for registration for Pimelea control, bearing in mind the large potential costs involved if used over large areas. Group I hormone herbicides (for example 2,4-D) were quite effective as was metsulfuron-methyl and glyphosate at doses commonly registered for use on broad-leafed weeds. On the basis of minimizing costs and quickly suppressing seed-set, metsulfuron-methyl at 3.5e5 g a.i. ha1 and 2,4-D at 375e500 g a.i. ha1 were the most promising. Where medic (Medicago spp.) persistence is vital, 2,4-DB at 240e300 g a.i. ha1 could be used and glyphosate at 1 kg a.i. ha1 would be effective on fallowed ground if costwas not an overriding concern.

Mile-a-minute (Mikania micrantha): its distribution, growth and physical and socio-economic impacts in Papua New Guinea

Mikania micrantha, Kunth. H.B.K (Asteraceae) or mile-a-minute is a weed of Neotropical origin in 17 Pacific Island countries. It is becoming increasingly regarded as an invasive weed in Papua New Guinea and is now the focus of an Australian Government-funded biological control program. As part of the program, growth rates, distribution and physical and socia-economic impacts were studied to obtain baseline data and to assist with the field release of biological control agents. Through public awareness campaigns and dedicated surveys, mikania has been reported in most lowland provinces. It is particularly widespread in East New Britain and West New Britain Province. In field trials, mikania grew more than 1 metre per month in open sunny areas but slightly slower when growing under cocoa. The weed invades a wide range of land types, impacting on plantations and food gardens, smothering pawpaw, young cocoa, banana, taro, young oil palms and ornamental plants. In socia-economic surveys, mikania was found to have severe impacts on crop production and income generated through reduced yields and high weeding costs. These studies suggest that there would be substantial benefits to the community if biological control of mikania is successful.

Fallow management Calculating the profitability of different fallow management options

The method used to manage a fallow can influence your overall farm profitability. The benefits of a well managed fallow include improved soil health, reduced weed control costs, a reduction in the number of machinery operations and an increase in sugarcane productivity. Growers generally have two main options for managing their fallow; 1) bare fallow or 2) rotational crop. A bare fallow predominantly involves the use of tillage or herbicides to keep the block free of weeds and volunteer cane. Growing a rotational crop generally uses legumes like soybeans or cowpeas because of their soil health and nitrogen benefits. This paper looks into some of these methods and the flow on effects on farm profitability. Fallow management should never be viewed in isolation, as it is an integral part of the cane farming system. In this analysis we will investigate the effect of fallow management and farming system practices on the whole of farm profitability. There are many factors to consider when looking at different fallow management options. These include the type of farming system practices used and the suitability of a legume crop to a particular situation. Legume crops may not be suited to all situations, therefore it is recommended to consult with your local agronomist for more specific advice. One method of examining the options is to work through an example. In this case we will look at four options that are based on some common fallow management and farming system practices used in the Herbert region.

Effect of reduced rotation length on Araucaria wood quality.

The review of existing information has identified the following: - the juvenile core in Araucaria is probably contained within the first 15 growth rings in the pith, with spiral grain being a chief determinant of its extent within the stem; - a reduction in rotation length for a given site index will reduce ASV and mature wood volume, with an increase in the proportion of juvenile wood; - for a given rotation length, lower ASV stems were estimated to contain a lower proportion of juvenile wood (based on the assumptions made and crude simulations using WEEDS, PL YSIM and STEPS software); regardless of juvenile wood proportions, smaller stems will yield a higher proportion of pith-in material; - an increase in the proportion of juvenile wood, due to a reduction in rotation length, could affect wood quality due to an increase in the proportion of the recovery containing high spiral grain, shorter tracheids and higher micellar angle; - high spiral grain and high micellar angles adversely impact on wood quality through their influence on twist and longitudinal shrinkage, respectively; - positive outcomes from a reduction in rotation length might include an increase in the proportion of live knots in upper stem sections and a reduction in the extent of brown-stain heartwood; - the uniformity in basic density within Araucaria stems means reduced rotation lengths and lower stem ASVs are unlikely to have a major impact on this wood property, and - the effect of a reduction in rotation length on the incidence of compression wood and timber susceptible to kiln staining could not be established from the available information.

Is prosopis a curse or a blessing? : An ecological economic analysis of an invasive alien tree species in Sudan.

The issue of the usefulness of different prosopis species versus their status as weeds is a matter of hot debate around the world. The tree Prosopis juliflora had until 2000 been proclaimed weedy in its native range in South America and elsewhere in the dry tropics. P. juliflora or mesquite has a 90-year history in Sudan. During the early 1990s a popular opinion in central Sudan and the Sudanese Government had begun to consider prosopis a noxious weed and a problematic tree species due to its aggressive ability to invade farmlands and pastures, especially in and around irrigated agricultural lands. As a consequence prosopis was officially declared an invasive alien species also in Sudan, and in 1995 a presidential decree for its eradication was issued. Using a total economic valuation (TEV) approach, this study analysed the impacts of prosopis on the local livelihoods in two contrasting irrigated agricultural schemes. Primarily a problem-based approach was used in which the derivation of non-market values was captured using ecological economic tools. In the New Halfa Irrigation Scheme in Kassala State, four separate household surveys were conducted due to diversity between the respective population groups. The main aim was here to study the magnitude of environmental economic benefits and costs derived from the invasion of prosopis in a large agricultural irrigation scheme on clay soil. Another study site, the Gandato Irrigation Scheme in River Nile State represented impacts from prosopis that an irrigation scheme was confronted with on sandy soil in the arid and semi-arid ecozones along the main River Nile. The two cases showed distinctly different effects of prosopis but both indicated the benefits to exceed the costs. The valuation on clay soil in New Halfa identified a benefit/cost ratio of 2.1, while this indicator equalled 46 on the sandy soils of Gandato. The valuation results were site-specific and based on local market prices. The most important beneficial impacts of prosopis on local livelihoods were derived from free-grazing forage for livestock, environmental conservation of the native vegetation, wood and non-wood forest products, as well as shelterbelt effects. The main social costs from prosopis were derived from weeding and clearing it from farm lands and from canalsides, from thorn injuries to humans and livestock, as well as from repair expenses vehicle tyre punctures. Of the population groups, the tenants faced most of the detrimental impacts, while the landless population groups (originating from western and eastern Sudan) as well as the nomads were highly dependent on this tree resource. For the Gandato site the monetized benefit-cost ratio of 46 still excluded several additional beneficial impacts of prosopis in the area that were difficult to quantify and monetize credibly. In River Nile State the beneficial impact could thus be seen as completely outweighing the costs of prosopis. The results can contributed to the formulation of national and local forest and agricultural policies related to prosopis in Sudan and also be used in other countries faced with similar impacts caused by this tree.

Sweetpotato consumer research: insights to increasing consumption

This report provides an evaluation of the behaviours and purchasing drivers of key sweetpotato consumers defined by Nielsen consumer research as Established Couples (two or more adults with no children 17 and under, and head of house 35-59), Senior Couples (two or more adults with no children 17 or under, and head of house 60 or over), and Independent Singles (one person household 35 or over, no children 17 or under). Research was qualitative in nature. Methods used included focus groups, depth interviews and shop-a-longs. The report found that preferences for sweetpotato amongst these groups were varied. In general a smaller torpedo shaped vegetable was valued for ease of preparation and the convenience of being of sufficient size for a meal for two. Satisfaction with sweetpotato was high with negative comments on quality exceedingly rare within discussions. However, shop-a-longs revealed that some quality issues were apparent at retail such as withered product, pitting and occasionally damage. A display with stock resting in any amount of water was a barrier to purchase for consumers and this was apparent on two out 15 occasions. A high quality sweetpotato was of a deep orange/red colour, had a smooth skin and was extremely dense and hard. An inferior sweetpotato was wrinkly, spongy, pitted and damaged. Awareness of sweetpotato was a relatively recent phenomenon amongst the respondents of this study with most recalling eating the vegetable in the last five to 10 years. Life-time eating patterns emerged as a consequence of childhood food experiences such as growing up with a ‘meat and three’ veg philosophy and traditional Australian meals. However, this was dependent on cultural background and those with ties to diverse cultures were more likely to have always known of the vegetable. Sweetpotato trial and consumption coincided with a breaking away from these traditional patterns, or was integrated into conventional meals such as a baked vegetable to accompany roasts. Increased health consciousness also led to awareness of the vegetable. A primary catalyst for consumption within the Established and Senior Couples groups was the health benefits associated with sweetpotato. Consumers had very little knowledge of the specific health properties of the vegetable and were surprised at the number of benefits consumption provided. Sweetpotato was important for diabetics for its low Glycemic Index status. Top-of-the-mind awareness of the vegetable resulted from the onset of the disease. Increasing fibre was a key motive for this demographic and this provided a significant link between consumption and preventing bowel cancer. For those on a weight loss regime, sweetpotato was perceived as a tasty, satisfying food that was low in carbohydrates. Swapping behaviours where white potato was replaced by sweetpotato was often a response to these health concerns. Other health properties mentioned by participants through the course of the research included the precursor β-carotene and Vitamins A & C. The sweetpotato was appreciated for its hedonic and timesaving qualities. For consumers with a high involvement in food, the vegetable was valued for its versatility in meals. These consumers took pride in cooking and the flavour and texture of sweetpotato lent itself to a variety of meals such as soups, salads, roasts, curries, tagines and so on. Participants who had little time or desire to prepare and cook meals valued sweetpotato because it was an easy way to add colour and variety to the plate and because including an orange vegetable to meals is a shortcut to ensuring vitamin intake. Several recommendations are made to the sweetpotato industry. • Vigorously promote the distinct nutritional and health properties of sweetpotatoes, particularly if they can be favourably compared to other vegetables or foods • Promote the salient properties to specific targets such as diabetics, those that are at risk to bowel cancer, and those embarking on a weight-loss regime. Utilise specialist channels of communication such as diabetic magazines and websites • Promote styles of cooking of sweetpotato that would appeal to traditionalists such as roasts and BBQs • Promote the vegetable as a low maintenance vegetable, easy to store, easy to cook and particularly focusing on it as a simple way to boost the appearance and nutritional value of meals. • Promote the vegetable to high food involvement consumers through exotic recipes and linking it to feelings of accomplishment with cooking • Promote the versatility of the vegetable • Devise promotions that link images and tone of communications with enjoying life to the fullest, having time to enjoy family and grandchildren, and of partaking in social activities • Educate retailers on consumer perceptions of quality and ensuring moisture and mould is not present at displays Qualitative information while providing a wealth of detail cannot be extrapolated to the overall target population and this may be considered a limitation to the research. However, within research theory, effective quantitative design is believed to stem from the insights developed from qualitative studies. • Develop and implement a quantitative study on sweetpotato attitudes and behaviours based on the results of this study.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

Cat's claw creeper vine, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), invasion impacts: comparative leaf nutrient content and effects on soil physicochemical properties

Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry (Bignoniaceae) is a major environmental weed in coastal Queensland, Australia. There is a lack of quantitative data on its leaf chemistry and its impact on soil properties. Soils from infested vs uninfested areas, and leaves of M. unguis-cati and three co-occurring vine species (one exotic, two native) were collected at six sites (riparian and non-riparian) in south-eastern Queensland. Effects of invasion status, species, site and habitat type were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Habitat type had a greater effect on soil nutrients than on leaf chemistry. Invasion effect of M. unguis-cati on soil chemistry was more pronounced in non-riparian than in riparian habitat. Significantly higher values were obtained in M. unguis-cati infested (vs. uninfested) soils for ~50% of traits. Leaf ion concentrations differed significantly between exotic and native vines. Observed higher leaf-nutrient load (especially nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) in exotic plants aligns with the preference of invasive plant species for disturbed habitats with higher nutrient input. Higher load of trace elements (aluminium, boron, cadmium and iron) in its leaves suggests that cycling of heavy-metal ions, many of which are potentially toxic at excess level, could be accelerated in soils of M. unguis-cati-invaded landscape. Although inferences from the present study are based on correlative data, the consistency of the patterns across many sites suggests that M. unguis-cati may improve soil fertility and influence nutrient cycling, perhaps through legacy effects of its own litter input.