Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigation of liquid flow shift due to gas cross flow in non-wetted packed beds

An experimental study has been carried out for the gas-liquid two-phase flow in a packed bed simulating conditions of the gas and liquid flows in the lower part of blast furnace. The localised liquid flow phenomenon in presence of gas cross flow, which usually occurs around the cohesive zone and raceway in blast furnace, was investigated in detail. Such liquid flow is characterised in terms of liquid shift distance or liquid shift angle that can effectively be measured by the experiments involved in the current study. It is found that liquid shift angle does not significantly increase or decrease with different packing depth. This finding supports the hypothesis of the force balance model where a vectorial relationship among acting forces, i.e. gas drag force, gravitational force and solid-liquid friction force, and liquid shift angle does exist. Liquid shift angle is inversely proportional to particle size and liquid density, and proportional to square of gas superficial velocity, but is almost independent on liquid flowrate and liquid viscosity. The gas-liquid drag coefficient, an important aspect for quantifying the interaction between gas and liquid flows, was conceptually modified based on the discrete feature of liquid flow through a packed bed and evaluated by the combined theoretical and experimental investigation. Experimental measurements suggest that the gas-liquid drag coefficient is approximately a constant (C-DG(')=5.4+/-1.0) and is independent on liquid properties, gas velocity and packing structure. The result shows a good agreement with previous experimental data and prediction of the existing liquid flow model.

Towards a definition of "difference" in osteoarthritis

To assess existing information regarding detectable differences in osteoarthritis (OA), a systematic literature search was conducted up to December 1999. Thirty-three articles were considered methodologically relevant to the definition and categorization of detectable differences in OA. It was determined that the musculoskeletal literature contains a wealth of information that relates to observed changes, much of which is derived from the clinical trials literature, but there have been relatively few methodological studies that have systematically evaluated the nature, categorization, and relevance of the change. Furthermore, most of those that have been published take the perspective of an individual or groups of experts other than that of the patient. This summary of the current literature reveals that the diverse sources of information go part way towards developing an understanding of detectable differences and their importance in the area of OA research and clinical practice. Stakeholders' interests as well as factors that modulate perceptions of importance need to be taken under consideration. In particular, the patient's perspective of the importance of change at an individual level requires further evaluation. This area of clinical research is relatively underdeveloped, but there is considerable opportunity for progress.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regulation of male sexual development by Sry and Sox9

Sry, a gene from the Y chromosome, is known to initiate testis formation and subsequent male differentiation in mammals. A related gene, Sox9, also plays a critical role in testis determination, possibly in all vertebrates. A number of models have been presented regarding the molecular modes of action of these two genes. However, details regarding their regulation, regulatory target genes, and interacting protein factors and co-factors have not been established with any certainty. In this review, we examine new evidence and re-examine existing evidence bearing on these issues, in an effort to build up an integrative model of the network of gene activity centred around Sry and Sox9. J. Exp. Zool. 290:463-474, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The design of hazard risk assessment matrices for ranking occupational health risks and their application in mining and minerals processing

Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

Mineral nutrition and plant morphogenesis

Plant morphogenesis in vitro can be achieved via two pathways, somatic embryogenesis or organogenesis. Relationships between the culture medium and explant leading to morphogenesis are complex and, despite extensive study, remain poorly understood. Primarily the composition and ratio of plant growth regulators are manipulated to optimize the, quality and numbers of embryos or organs initiated. However, many species and varieties do not respond to this classical approach and require further optimization by the variation of other chemical or physical factors. Mineral nutrients form a significant component of culture media but are often overlooked as possible morphogenic elicitors. The combination of minerals for a particular plant species and developmental pathway are usually determined by the empirical manipulation of one or a combination of existing published formulations. Often only one medium type is used for the duration of culture even though this formulation may not be optimal for the different stages of explant growth and development. Furthermore, mineral studies have often focused on growth rather than morphogenesis with very little known of the relationships between mineral uptake and morphogenesis. This article examines the present knowledge of the main effects that mineral nutrients have on plant morphogenesis in vitro. In particular, the dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, and calcium supply during development are discussed.

Modern scientific methods and their potential in wastewater science and technology

Application of novel analytical and investigative methods such as fluorescence in situ hybridization, confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM), microelectrodes and advanced numerical simulation has led to new insights into micro-and macroscopic processes in bioreactors. However, the question is still open whether or not these new findings and the subsequent gain of knowledge are of significant practical relevance and if so, where and how. To find suitable answers it is necessary for engineers to know what can be expected by applying these modern analytical tools. Similarly, scientists could benefit significantly from an intensive dialogue with engineers in order to find out about practical problems and conditions existing in wastewater treatment systems. In this paper, an attempt is made to help bridge the gap between science and engineering in biological wastewater treatment. We provide an overview of recently developed methods in microbiology and in mathematical modeling and numerical simulation. A questionnaire is presented which may help generate a platform from which further technical and scientific developments can be accomplished. Both the paper and the questionnaire are aimed at encouraging scientists and engineers to enter into an intensive, mutually beneficial dialogue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Securing the commercial internet: Lessons learned in developing a postgraduate course in information security management

This paper describes the inception, planning and first delivery of a security course as part of a postgraduate ecommerce program. The course is reviewed in terms of existing literature on security courses, the common body of knowledge established for security professionals and the job market into which students will graduate. The course described in this paper is a core subject for the e-commerce program. This program was established in 1999 and the first batch of students graduated in 2001. The program is offered at both postgraduate and undergraduate level. The work described here relates to the postgraduate offering. Students on this program are graduates of diverse disciplines and do not have a common e-commerce or business background.

An action research report on the Korean national digital library

This paper presents the results of my action research. I was involved in establishing and running a digital library that was founded by the government of South Korea. The process involved understanding the relationship between the national IT infrastructure and the success factors of the digital library. In building, the national IT infrastructure, a digital library system was implemented; it combines all existing digitized university libraries and can provide overseas information, such as foreign journal articles, instantly and freely to every Korean researcher. An empirical survey was made as a part of the action research; the survey determined user satisfaction in the newly established national digital library. After obtaining the survey results, I suggested that the current way of running the nationwide government-owned digital library should be retained. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Transforming the architect: Ownership form and archetype change

The adoption of the incorporated form of ownership in preference to partnership is linked to the shift to a more modem organizational archetype in professional firms. Yet existing empirical research offers insufficient insight into the organizational processes of this transformation in different professional arenas. Where ownership and control become separated, there is a clearer theoretical explanation of the implications for the way the firm is run. Where ownership and control remain inside, the firm, however, the consequences are not so clear and have not been well explored. Using survey and interview materials derived from a study of architecture practices, we examine the processes by which differences based on ownership emerge. Then, by drawing on Weberian theories, where they are concerned with professionalization as a project with material and social rewards, we specify more clearly the context for change in professional firms' archetypes. This, we conclude, provides a stronger basis for understanding the change trajectories of firms within professions and comparative organizational analysis between professions.

Capacity utilisation and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency

The principal aim of this paper is to measure the amount by which the profit of a multi-input, multi-output firm deviates from maximum short-run profit, and then to decompose this profit gap into components that are of practical use to managers. In particular, our interest is in the measurement of the contribution of unused capacity, along with measures of technical inefficiency, and allocative inefficiency, in this profit gap. We survey existing definitions of capacity and, after discussing their shortcomings, we propose a new ray economic capacity measure that involves short-run profit maximisation, with the output mix held constant. We go on to describe how the gap between observed profit and maximum profit can be calculated and decomposed using linear programming methods. The paper concludes with an empirical illustration, involving data on 28 international airline companies. The empirical results indicate that these airline companies achieve profit levels which are on average US$815m below potential levels, and that 70% of the gap may be attributed to unused capacity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic Instruments and Regulatory Approaches in Implementing Riparian Revegetation Options: Observations of the Queensland System

Riparian vegetation can be an effective measure for preventing degradation of streambanks and riparian areas. However, riparian revegetation imposes large costs on landholders associated with tree establishment and removal of land from cropping, while providing benefits to downstream landholders, fishers, the local community and environmentalists. Appropriate policy instruments are required to promote sustainable and balanced use of riparian zones. This article analyses the capacity of existing legislation and other instruments to promote restoration of degraded riparian zones on private land. The role of legislation. economic instruments, community engagement and extension programs, in persuading landholders to revegetate riparian areas and improve riparian vegetation cover; is examined in the context ofa small degraded catchment in an intensive farming area in tropical north Queensland. It is found that while legislation and regulations can control undesirable modification of riparian areas, in general they are unable to make a useful contribution to restoration of these areas; incentives and assistance measures appear to offer greater potential.

Information internalisation in internationalising the firm

Internationalisation occurs when the firm expands its selling, production, or other business activities into international markets. Many enterprises, especially small- and medium-size firms (SMEs), are internationalising today at an unprecedented rate. Managers are strategically using information to achieve degrees of internationalisation previously considered the domain of large firms. We extend existing explanations of firm internationalisation by examining the nature and fundamental, antecedent role of internalising appropriate information and translating it into relevant knowledge. Based on case studies of internationalising firms, we advance a conceptualisation of information internalisation and knowledge creation within the firm as it achieves internationalisation readiness. In the process, we offer several propositions intended to guide future research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

N-15 natural abundance of fossil peat reflects the influence of animal-derived nitrogen on vegetation

delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat were used to interpret past ecosystem processes on tectonically active subantarctic Macquarie Island. By comparing past vegetation reconstructed from the fossil record with present-day vegetation analogues, our evidence strongly suggests that changes in the delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat at this location reflect mainly past changes in the proportion of plant nitrogen derived from animal sources. Associated with uplift above sea level over the past 8,500 years, fossil records in two peat deposits on the island chronicle a change from coastal vegetation with fur and elephant seal disturbance to the existing inland herbfield. Coupled with this change are synchronous changes in the delta(15)N signatures of peat layers. At two sites N-15-enriched peat delta(15)N signatures of up to +17parts per thousand were associated with a high abundance of pollen of the nitrophile Callitriche antarctica (Callitrichaceae). At one site fossil seal hair was also associated with enriched peat delta(15)N. Less N-15 enriched delta(15)N signatures (e.g. -1.9parts per thousand to +3.9parts per thousand) were measured in peat layers which lacked animal associated C. antarctica and Acaena spp. Interpretation of a third peat profile indicates continual occupation of a ridge site by burrowing petrels for most of the Holocene. We suggest that N-15 signatures of fossil peat remained relatively stable with time once deposited, providing a significant new tool for interpreting the palaeoecology.