Realized Matrix-Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Asymmetry, Long Memory and Spillovers

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the dynamic covariance matrix. The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann’s seminal work in terms of the estimation of highly non-linear model specifications (“Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models”, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, 39(1-2), 69–104), especially for developing tests for leverage and spillover effects in the covariance dynamics. Efficient importance sampling is used to maximize the likelihood function of RMESV-ALM, and the finite sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters are analysed. Using high frequency data for three US financial assets, the new model is estimated and evaluated. The forecasting performance of the new model is compared with a novel dynamic realized matrix-exponential conditional covariance model. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions from returns to volatility and co-volatility.

Endogenous Risk Perception, Geospatial Characteristics and Temporal Variation in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Recovering Natural History: Modeling Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Presence of Endogenous Medication Use

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Dimethyl Acetals, an Indirect Marker of the Endogenous Antioxidant Plasmalogen Level, are Reduced in Blood Lipids of Sudanese Pre-eclamptic Subjects whose Background Diet is High in Carbohydrate

In Sudanese women with (n = 60) and without (n = 65) pre-eclampsia, circulating lipids, plasma and red cell saturated and monounsaturated fatty (MUFA) acids and dimethyl acetals (DMAs) were investigated. DMAs are an indirect marker of levels of plasmalogens, endogenous antioxidants, which play a critical role in oxidative protection, and cholesterol homeostasis. The pre-eclamptics had higher C18:1n-9 (p < 0.001) and ΣMUFA (p < 0.01) in plasma free fatty acids, C16:1n-7, C18:1n-9, ΣMUFA; 16:0/16:1n-7 (p < 0.01) in erythrocyte choline phosphoglycerides (ePC) and 16:1n-7, 18:1n-7 and 16:0/16:1n-7 (p < 0.01) in erythrocyte ethanolamine phosphoglycerides (ePE). In contrast, the DMAs 18:0, 18:1 and ΣDMAs in ePE, and 16:0, 18:0 and ΣDMAs in ePC were reduced (p < 0.001) in the pre-eclamptic women. This study of pregnant women with high carbohydrate and low fat background diet suggests pre-eclampsia is associated with oxidative stress and enhanced activity of the microsomal enzyme stearyl-CoA desaturase (delta 9 desaturase), as assessed by palmitic/palmitoleic (C16:0/C16:n-1) and stearic/oleic (C18/C18:1n-9) ratios.

Optimizing Western Blots for the Detection of Endogenous α-Synuclein in the Enteric Nervous System

International audience

Optical redox ratio and endogenous porphyrins in the detection of urinary bladder cancer:a patient biopsy analysis

Bladder cancer is among the most common cancers in the UK and conventional detection techniques suffer from low sensitivity, low specificity, or both. Recent attempts to address the disparity have led to progress in the field of autofluorescence as a means to diagnose the disease with high efficiency, however there is still a lot not known about autofluorescence profiles in the disease. The multi-functional diagnostic system "LAKK-M" was used to assess autofluorescence profiles of healthy and cancerous bladder tissue to identify novel biomarkers of the disease. Statistically significant differences were observed in the optical redox ratio (a measure of tissue metabolic activity), the amplitude of endogenous porphyrins and the NADH/porphyrin ratio between tissue types. These findings could advance understanding of bladder cancer and aid in the development of new techniques for detection and surveillance.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

Does international trade produce convergence?

In spite of increasing globalization around the world, the effects of international trade on economic growth are not very clear. I consider an endogenous economic growth model in an open economy with the Home Market Effect (HME) and non-homothetic preferences in order to identify some determinants of the different results in this relationship. The model shows how trade between similar countries leads to convergence in economic growth when knowledge spillovers are present, while trade between very asymmetric countries produces divergence and may become trade in a poverty or growth trap. The results for welfare move in the same direction as economic growth since convergence implies increases in welfare for both countries, while divergence leads to increases in welfare for the largest country and the opposite for its commercial partner in the absence of knowledge spillovers. International trade does not implicate greater welfare as is usual in a static context under CES preferences.

Glutathione and abscisic acid supplementation influences somatic embryo maturation and hormone endogenous levels during somatic embryogenesis in Podocarpus lambertii Klotzsch ex Endl.

Here we propose a protocol for embryogenic cultures induction, proliferation and maturation for the Brazilian conifer Podocarpus lambertii, and investigated the effect of abscisic acid (ABA) and glutathione (GSH) supplementation on the maturation phase. ABA, zeatin (Z) and salicylic acid (SA) endogenous levels were quantified. Number of somatic embryos obtained in ABA-supplemented treatment was signifi- cant higher than in ABA-free treatment, showing the relevance of ABA supplementation during somatic embryos maturation. Histological analysis showed the stereotyped sequence of developmental stages in conifer somatic embryos, reaching the late torpedo-staged embryo. GSH supplementation in maturation culture medium improved the somatic embryos number and morphological features. GSH 0 mM and GSH 0.1 mM treatments correlated with a decreased ABA endogenous level during maturation, while GSH 0.5 mM treatment showed constantlevels. Alltreatments resulted in decreased Z endogenous levels, supporting the concept that cytokinins are important during the initial cell division but not for the later stages of embryo development. The lowest SA levels found in GSH 0.5 mM treatment were coincident with early embryonic development, and this treatment resulted in the highest development of somatic embryos. Thus, a correlation between lower SA levels and improved somatic embryo formation can be hypothesized

The effect of cross-linker on endogenous enzymatic activity within radicular dentin and bond strength between intraradicular post and radicular dentin

The primary aim was to evaluate the effect of 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylamino-propyl) carbodiimide (EDC) on endogenous enzymatic activity within radicular dentin and push-out bond strength of adhesively luted fiber posts, at baseline and after artificial aging. Additionally, the effect of different cementation strategies on endogenous enzymatic activity and fiber post retention was evaluated. The experiment was carried out on extracted human teeth, following endodontic treatment and fiber post cementation. Three cementation strategies were performed: resin cement in combination with etch-and-rinse (EAR) adhesive system, with self-etch (SE) system and self-adhesive (SE) cement. Each of the mentioned strategies had a control and experimental (EDC) group in which root canal was irrigated with 0.3M EDC for 1 minute. The push-out bond strength test was performed 24h after cementation and after 40.000 thermocycles. In order to investigate the effect of EDC and different cementation strategies, in situ zymography analyses of the resin-dentin interfaces were conducted. Statistical analyses were conducted with the software Stata 12.0 (Stata Corp, College Station, Texas, USA) and the significance was set for p<0.05. The results of statistical analysis (ANOVA) showed that the variables “EDC”, “root region” and “artificial aging” significantly influenced fiber posts’ retention to root canal (p<0.05). The highest values were observed in coronal third. The mean values observed after artificial aging were lower when compared to baseline, however EDC was effective in preserving bond strength. The level of enzymatic activity varied between the groups and EDC had a beneficial effect on silencing the enzymatic activity. Within the limitations of the study, it was concluded that the choice of cementation strategy did not influence posts’ retention, while EDC contributed to the preservation of bond strength after artificial aging and reduced enzymatic activity within radicular dentin. In vivo trials are necessary to confirm the results of this in vitro study.

Distraction by task-irrelevant stimuli: the effects of endogenous spatial attention and visual working memory load

Salient stimuli, like sudden changes in the environment or emotional stimuli, generate a priority signal that captures attention even if they are task-irrelevant. However, to achieve goal-driven behavior, we need to ignore them and to avoid being distracted. It is generally agreed that top-down factors can help us to filter out distractors. A fundamental question is how and at which stage of processing the rejection of distractors is achieved. Two circumstances under which the allocation of attention to distractors is supposed to be prevented are represented by the case in which distractors occur at an unattended location (as determined by the deployment of endogenous spatial attention) and when the amount of visual working memory resources is reduced by an ongoing task. The present thesis is focused on the impact of these factors on three sources of distraction, namely auditory and visual onsets (Experiments 1 and 2, respectively) and pleasant scenes (Experiment 3). In the first two studies we recorded neural correlates of distractor processing (i.e., Event-Related Potentials), whereas in the last study we used interference effects on behavior (i.e., a slowing down of response times on a simultaneous task) to index distraction. Endogenous spatial attention reduced distraction by auditory stimuli and eliminated distraction by visual onsets. Differently, visual working memory load only affected the processing of visual onsets. Emotional interference persisted even when scenes occurred always at unattended locations and when visual working memory was loaded. Altogether, these findings indicate that the ability to detect the location of salient task-irrelevant sounds and identify the affective significance of natural scenes is preserved even when the amount of visual working memory resources is reduced by an ongoing task and when endogenous attention is elsewhere directed. However, these results also indicate that the processing of auditory and visual distractors is not entirely automatic.

Fatty Acid Synthase Inhibitors Induce Apoptosis In Non-tumorigenic Melan-a Cells Associated With Inhibition Of Mitochondrial Respiration.

The metabolic enzyme fatty acid synthase (FASN) is responsible for the endogenous synthesis of palmitate, a saturated long-chain fatty acid. In contrast to most normal tissues, a variety of human cancers overexpress FASN. One such cancer is cutaneous melanoma, in which the level of FASN expression is associated with tumor invasion and poor prognosis. We previously reported that two FASN inhibitors, cerulenin and orlistat, induce apoptosis in B16-F10 mouse melanoma cells via the intrinsic apoptosis pathway. Here, we investigated the effects of these inhibitors on non-tumorigenic melan-a cells. Cerulenin and orlistat treatments were found to induce apoptosis and decrease cell proliferation, in addition to inducing the release of mitochondrial cytochrome c and activating caspases-9 and -3. Transfection with FASN siRNA did not result in apoptosis. Mass spectrometry analysis demonstrated that treatment with the FASN inhibitors did not alter either the mitochondrial free fatty acid content or composition. This result suggests that cerulenin- and orlistat-induced apoptosis events are independent of FASN inhibition. Analysis of the energy-linked functions of melan-a mitochondria demonstrated the inhibition of respiration, followed by a significant decrease in mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm) and the stimulation of superoxide anion generation. The inhibition of NADH-linked substrate oxidation was approximately 40% and 61% for cerulenin and orlistat treatments, respectively, and the inhibition of succinate oxidation was approximately 46% and 52%, respectively. In contrast, no significant inhibition occurred when respiration was supported by the complex IV substrate N,N,N',N'-tetramethyl-p-phenylenediamine (TMPD). The protection conferred by the free radical scavenger N-acetyl-cysteine indicates that the FASN inhibitors induced apoptosis through an oxidative stress-associated mechanism. In combination, the present results demonstrate that cerulenin and orlistat induce apoptosis in non-tumorigenic cells via mitochondrial dysfunction, independent of FASN inhibition.